Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets: A New View of Cycles, Prices, and Market Volatility (Wiley Finance)

Book Description

The latest developments in chaos theory - from an industry expert

Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the first book to introduce and popularize chaos as it applies to finance. It has since become the classic source on the topic. This new edition is completely updated to include the latest ripples in chaos theory with new chapters that tie in today's hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, and artificial intelligence.

Critical praise for Peters and the first edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets

"The bible of market chaologists." - BusinessWeek

"Ed Peters has written a first-class summary suitable for any investment professional or skilled investor." - Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

"It ranks among the most provocative financial books of the past few years. Reading this book will provide a generous payback for the time and mental energy expended." - Financial Analysts Journal

This second edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets brings the topic completely up to date with timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of the latest wave of technology, including genetic algorithms, wavelets, and complexity theory.

Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the very first book to explore and popularize chaos theory as it applies to finance. It has since become the industry standard, and is regarded as the definitive source to which analysts, investors, and traders turn for a comprehensive overview of chaos theory. Now, this invaluable reference - touted by BusinessWeek as "the bible of market chaologists" - has been updated and revised to bring you the latest developments in the field.

Mainstream capital market theory is based on efficient market assumptions, even though the markets themselves exhibit characteristics that are symptomatic of nonlinear dynamic systems. As it explores - and validates - this nonlinear nature, Chaos and Order repudiates the "random walk" theory and econometrics. It shifts the focus away from the concept of efficient markets toward a more general view of the forces underlying the capital market system.

Presenting new analytical techniques, as well as reexamining methods that have been in use for the past forty years, Chaos and Order offers a thorough examination of chaos theory and fractals as applied to investments and economics. This new edition includes timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of cutting-edge technologies-genetic algorithms, wavelets, complexity theory-and hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence.

Beyond the history of current capital market theory, Chaos and Order covers the crucial characteristics of fractals, the analysis of fractal time series through rescaled range analysis (R/S), the specifics of fractal statistics, and the definition and analysis of chaotic systems. It offers an in-depth exploration of:
* Random walks and efficient markets - the development of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and modern portfolio theory
* The linear paradigm - why it has failed
* Nonlinear dynamic systems - phase space, the Henon Map, Lyapunov exponents
* Applying chaos and nonlinear methods - neural networks, genetic algorithms
* Dynamical analysis of time series - reconstructing a phase space, the fractal dimension

Tonis Vaga's Coherent Market Hypothesis - the theory of social imitation, control parameters, Vaga's implementations

Plus, Chaos and Order now contains a Windows-compatible disk including data sets for running analyses described in the appendices.

Written by a leading expert in the field, Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets has all the information you need for a complete, up-to-date look at chaos theory. This latest edition will undoubtedly prove to be as invaluable as the first.

Customer Reviews:

Poorly explained.......2004-02-04

I have a university maths degree and found the book very obvious and drawn out for the first few chapters. In spite of this I looked forward to what was going to be explained later. Suddenly from a very simple and easy to understand explanation on the EMH he starts to use mathematics in his equations that I had a lot of difficulty following. There was very little or no explanation of how these equations were arrived at and a lot of mathematics and statisics is assumed. This book does not apply the theory in ny meaningful way to the markets let alone the capital markets in my opinion. I found that I took very little away from this book and would not recommend it to anyone who has basic mathematics like myself or is looking for some deeper insight into the markets. I would hate to have Mr Peters as a teacher based on his book.

A very good introduction.......2004-02-01

I read this book, the 1991 version, years ago. Around 1980 my own attempts to crack share prices statistically convinced me that all share prices behaved like a Gaussian random walk meaning that all speculation was comparable with playing roulette and I am not one of those guys who usually wins when gambling. This view was strengthened when the option pricing model came up, meaning that even the real pro's in the field assume that share prices are nothing but a random walk. This book has opened my eyes to the fact that there is much more to randomness than just the Gaussian curve. Share prices are not fully random. Impressive is the demonstration that an RS analysis on the real data is different when applying the same RS analysis on scrambled data. So there is information hidden in these time series, somewhere. Since then I have picked up the subject of cracking time series again with great pleasure. I think this book is exceptionally well written and without it I doubt if I would have been able to follow Mandelbrot's book "scaling and fractals in finance" that I bought later. The book is about understanding a subject, not about learning a simple formula to apply on a time series.

A dated overview, with little real meat.......2003-02-10

The second edition of this book was published in 1996. The book
seems to be largely based on Feder's 1988 book "Fractals". The
dated nature of this book means that it is missing later work
on long memory processes, which Peters estimates using the Hurst
exponent.

As one reviewer already noted, don't assume that this book will
provide much in the way of useful equations. For anyone who wants
more than an overview, this book is a disappointment. Peters does
a poor job of explaining the equations and I did not find enough
detail to implement the algorithms discussed (I turned to Feder's
book and various journal articles). The book does come with a
"floppy" disk containing the Visual Basic algorithms. This is
a poor choice, since C is pretty much the lingua franca for
algorithms.

The various chaos and fractal techniques are applied to a handful
of financial data sets, but this is far from even a solid
suggestion that these techniques might be useful to anyone
developing real market models.

Some of the conclusions that Peters draws (cycles in financial
data) do not seem to be supported the evidence he presents.

In summary, if you are looking for something beyond an overview,
save your money. Feder ("Fractals") has a better description of
RS calculation. "A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Lo
and MacKinlay has a chapeter on the application of the RS
statistic and long-memory processes which is much better than
Peters. For those who need to simulate fractal brownian motion
(data sets with a particular Hurst exponent) "The Science of
Fractal Images" by Barnsley et all is a good reference.

Good overview, bad balance.......2001-03-22

If you're looking for a purely conceptual introduction to how chaos theory can be applied to financial markets, this book is as good a source as any. Peters's discussion of R/S statistics and the graphical examples drawn from the markets are clear and intuitive (Ch. 7-8). The key point demonstrating long-term memory effects in the market is well made.

However he spends an inordinate amount of time attacking the foundations of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) to the point of being boring, yet the argument boils down to "it has errors when compared to reality". Duh, so does every other theory, including fractal. The real issue is "for the error in theory A, how bad are the results X, and is theory B much better at it?" If you're not going to do that, don't spend 40 pages (Ch. 1-4) on it. This is misleading to those not familiar with EMH, and boring to those who are.

Don't look to this book for good math. In my edition (1991), careless and erroneous notations abound. Also, the equations are written in BASIC notation which is notoriously hard to visualize, but this is probably the fault of the editor/publisher. Peters makes frequent and unannounced jumps between the apparent rigor of math and loose conjectures. The math is distracting to a qualitative reader, and the conjectures irritating to the quantitative one. Better to cater to one audience, and do it well.

Still, I would recommend this book as a good conceptual introduction to the subject. But if you're planning to go deeper, use the equations in this book at your own perils. Go to the source.

Commit it to the flames.......2001-01-04

For those of you intrigued by chaos versus the financial markets, I would suggest you get the basic knowledge in Garnett P. Williams "Chaos Theory Tamed" (if you don't mind being explained in the first twenty chapters things like the laws of exponents and logarithms), or the Devaney books, for people with some maths. By the time you finish these honest, carefully and painstakingly written books, you will have a fair understanding of what chaos theory is about, and you will also see that while it is interesting stuff, it is hard to imagine it having any practical relevance to finance, since finance is the realm of stochastic, not deterministic phenomena.

Mr. Peters' readers will not have the chance of gaining such a perspective on chaos or on finance, alas. Mr. Peters hasn't produced a clear, comprehensible text, but rather a imprecise and frustrating piece, presumably written in a very short time, filled with a huge number of graphs having epsilon informational content. It is also full of conceptual mistakes - Mr. Peters most probably doesn't have a good grasp of what he's speaking about, but to be fair, it is hard to tell since the implicit message of the book is: "Hey, like I'm going to give out all my secrets...! Forget it, baby!", so the readers are never given all of the story. Readers therefore have to decide whether they believe that the author has found a meaningful and secret way to use chaos, that unfortunately will not be revealed, or whether the author should be put in the same category as those who write about Crystals or Financial Astrology.

Can smart people make profit with chaos theory? Certainly! However, the only way to do so is by writing books about it...

Book Description

Modern business cycle theory and growth theory uses stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models. Many mathematical tools are needed to solve these models. The book presents various methods for computing the dynamics of general equilibrium models. In part I, the representative-agent stochastic growth model is solved with the help of value function iteration, linear and linear quadratic approximation methods, parameterised expectations and projection methods. In order to apply these methods, fundamentals from numerical analysis are reviewed in detail. Part II discusses methods for solving heterogeneous-agent economies. In such economies, the distribution of the individual state variables is endogenous. This part of the book also serves as an introduction to the modern theory of distribution economics. Applications include the dynamics of the income distribution over the business cycle or the overlapping-generations model. Through an accompanying home page to this book, computer codes to all applications can be downloaded.

The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle and Other Essays

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Austrian macro-economics without any criticisms
The Austrian School in a Nutshell
Real Economics
Useful primer on Austrian Theory

The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle and Other Essays
Ludwig von Mises , Murray N. Rothbard , Gottfried Haberler , and Friedrich A. Hayek
Manufacturer: Ludwig Von Mises Inst
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0945466218

Book Description

Booms and busts are not endemic to the free market, argues the Austrian theory of the business cycle, but come about through manipulation of money and credit by central banks. In this monograph, Austrian giants explain and defend the theory against alternatives. Includes essays by Mises, Rothbard, Haberler, and Hayek. In his later years, Professor Haberler distributed many of these monographs to friends and associates. New edition with an introduction by Roger Garrison and an index.

Customer Reviews:

Austrian macro-economics without any criticisms.......2001-10-29

A lovely succinct account from four towers in a tradition of economics that is widely represented in the financial markets. Roger Garrison - himself a leading light in modern times - leads off with a brief overview. The nice thing is that Garrison manages to get it all across without resorting to waffle - another Austrian tradition.

In fact, in my view, Garrison is the star of this review since his ability to keep it simple is a tremendous asset. Anyone familiar with the dark mutterings of academics in Austrian academic journals will know exactly what I'm talking about.

Aside from Garrison, the pieces by Rothbard and Harberler are the best since they tackle the central issue of Trade Cycle theory - that any system run by central bankers is inherently unstable since their tinkering with interest rates leads directly to the business cycle. Much better to have a competitive banking system without a central bank and a curency tied to gold. That way credit expansions will never be explosive. Of course, what they don't tell you is that their proposals are inherently deflationary and force deficit countries to do all adjustment when they experience balance of payments problems.

Rothbard's piece sets out the mechanics of the Trade Cycle especially well and everyone should be able to understand what he's getting at without too much difficulty. It's no more difficult than the average economics course on an MBA programme. That's hardly difficult, is it?

Readers wishing to understand the micro-economics of the Austrian school should also check out some of the recent publications of one Israel Kirzner.

The Austrian School in a Nutshell.......2001-09-25

At last! An anthology from one of the most important schools of libertarian economics in a portable form! This book can be easily incorporated into a course on economics or banking.
And yet, "The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle" is a narrowly useful tool. It's like a tire gauge, that means everything when there's a problem with the tire, but tells nothing about gas or oil levels. I see few times when the average production supervisor, Sunday-school teacher or working mom would have occasion to read it.
In the introduction, Roger Garrison spells out the differences between the Austrian School and other movements in free-market economics. The Austrian School emphasizes the role of time in decision making. To think of an example, Joe wants to buy a car now that the interest rates are low. But if the interest rates are high, he'll put his money in the bank and wait a year until he replaces the family car.
Ludwig von Mises' essay, which lends its name to the book, reveals the international character of the Austrian School. The essay was translated out of the French, points back to the British Currency School, and alludes to the contribution of Knut Wicksell from Sweden. This theory was, nevertheless, developed by Austrians, beginning with Carl Menger. References to the University of Chicago and to the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, bring the movement to a home in America.
The key point is that a boom produced and prolonged by easy bank money with government support will sooner or later contract into a bust when the easy money turns hard. Just ask any farmer who bought machinery on credit years ago, when inflation was rampant.
Gottfried Haberler demonstrates that economics is, in fact, difficult to reduce to mathematics. He points to how money is needed at different times as a product moves out of the ground through its production phases to the end user.
In contrast, Murray Rothbard tells us with sparkling satire why we no longer have "panics" and "depressions." He also gives insight on how a change in time preference changes interest rates; interest rates fall if enough buyers become savers.
Friedrich Hayek points to an insidious effect of inflation. Not is it more fun to be a debtor on a fixed-rate loan when inflation is high, but taxable profits are much higher than the profits are worth in reality. Easy money gives rise to inflation.
Roger Garrison finally draws a couple of price/quantity graphs in his summary, savings/investment graphs to be specific. Money created by the government has the same short-term effect as a genuine increase in savings, but genuine savings are lower because savers are coolly greeted by lower interest rates for their hard-earned money. The bust after the boom is a real let-down.
With my MBA from Campbell, this material is clearer and livelier to me than it would be to the man on the street.

Real Economics.......2001-07-01

I ordered this book as a part of a course I am designing for myself on economics. It is a good introduction to the Austrian school but provides information that even those familiar with the subject will find useful. Rothbard addresses many fallacies regarding the free market and provides a clear explanation of the Austrian theory of the trade cycle and other theories, relating them to history and comparing them with classical and Keynesian theories. This is a helpful comparison, as it reveals some inherent flaws in the latter and outlines the eventual results of the acceptance of those theories. This book does not give an in-depth analysis of its subject, but provides a cohesive picture and points for further examination. It is also a helpful text for understanding capitalist theory and the history of the Austrian school.

Useful primer on Austrian Theory.......2001-05-15

With the economy on the brink of a major collapse, there would seem to be no better time than the present to become reacquainted with the Austrian theory of the trade cycle, since this theory is nearly the only one which can come close to explaining the present crisis. Whereas most academic economists, under the influence of Keynes, believe that the economy, if manipulated in the right ways by the central banking authorities, can be kept in a state of expansion indefinitely, the Austrians argued for what has been called, by one critic, the "hangover theory," according to which any attempt to artificially stimulate the economy through a policy of credit inflation and low interest rates is bound to fail in the long run, so that any attempt to prevent a recession by lowering the interest rate can only wind up making things worse. Now while the Austrian theory in all its manifold details may not provide us with an entirely adequate description of economic reality, it is difficult to argue with the premise that artificially lowering the interest rate through easy money policies must lead to serious economic dislocations down the road. The cluelessness in regard to this issue demonstrated by most academic economists and by investment analysts merely proves the inveterate irrationality of the majority of the human race and the tremendous influence of wishful thinking on those who do not have the guts to see things as they are. There is no better introduction to Austrian trade cycle theory than this modest book which includes essays by von Mises, Hayek, Halberler, and Rothbard. The theory is presented in a clear, succinct manner, so that even economic illiterates have a chance to understand it. Roger Garrison provides an excellent introduction and summary.

Although I regard the Austrian theory as the best so far promulgated, this should not be construed as a full-hearted endorsement of the theory. In many important respects, the theory is flawed. Specifically, the theory suffers from two major shortcomings: (1) it is derived entirely from rationalistic speculation based on oversimplified generalizations of economic reality; and (2) it tacitly assumes that human behavior and motivation is far more rational than the facts would suggest. Given these weaknesses, it's not surprising that only the extreme rationalists within the Austrian movement except the theory in toto, and that many who once accepted (including even Haberler, one of the contributors to this volume) later rejected it. Perhaps the main reason for this rejection is the view that what causes the recession (or depression) is misallocation of resources within the capital structure. When interest rates are artificially lowered, this leads (according to the Austrian theory) to over-investment in more durable over less durable capital industries and for temporally more remote rather than less remote stages of production. This part of the theory has not sit well even with those economists who might otherwise be sympathetic to it. This is a pity, because this portion of the theory is not even necessary for explaining the phenomenon of economic recessions. In fact, they can be explained in virtue of credit expansion alone. The key is to merely understand that credit expansion through fractional reserve banking (or the equivalent thereof) is equivalent to debt expansion, since debt is merely the obverse side of credit. But it should be obvious to those whose common sense has not been debauched by too much Keynsianism that expansion of debt through fractional reserves cannot be carried on indefinitely, since debt of this kind is tantamount to leveraged debt and becomes more and more like a ponzi scheme the longer the banking and treasury authorities allow it to go on.

An excellent and important little book. Highly recommended.

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Dynamics and Progress

Before Keynes and Mandelbrot there was Schumpeter

On the Economic Causes of Business Cycles

Schumpeter's explanation of economic progress

The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (Social Science Classics Series)
Joseph A. Schumpeter
Manufacturer: Transaction Publishers
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy

History of Economic Analysis: With a New Introduction

Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Dover Books on History, Political and Social Science)

American Business, 1920-2000: How It Worked (The American History Series)

ASIN: 0878556982

Customer Reviews:

Dynamics and Progress.......2007-09-12

The Theory of Economic Development represents a high point in the history of economic science. Schumpeter had a clear understanding of the difference between static and dynamic issues in economics, and an appropriate appreciation of the latter. This book also shows how advanced Schumpeter's thinking was. On page 10 Schumpeter appears to anticipate the modern definition of economics- 20 years before Robbins wrote his Nature and Significance of Economic Science (was this in the original edition, or just in my 1934 reprint?). Chapter one sorts out Say's Law of Markets in detail, and explains its static nature. Chapter two explains economic development in correct dynamic terms (unlike the pseudo-dynamics of Neoclassical growth theory). Schumpeter is able to explain dynamics because he examines entrepreneurship (and vice versa). Schumpeter also leaves room for real institutions, especially financial markets.

I can honestly say that I learned some new and important things from reading this book, despite the facts that I have a PhD in economics and took my first economics class 21 years ago. Unfortunately, most economists would learn more from reading this book than I. This is a sad commentary on the current state of affairs in economics. Schumpeter was interested in matters of great consequence and thought about them deeply. There is simply no comparison between Schumpeter's insightful analysis and the tedious and purely imaginary intellectual constructs of Solow influenced math modelers. There is a clear difference between Schumpeter's analysis and the intellectual gymnastics of modern mathurbationists. Schumpeter was a true professional.

I was somewhat surprised by the extent to which Schumpeter's ideas fit with the ideas of Mises, Kirzner, and Lachmann. Schumpeter is often seen as an Austrian born Walrasian instead of as an Austrian economist in the Menger-Mises-Hayek tradition. There are clear Austrian influences on Schumpeter's thinking, though he was not a Mises clone. I was already impressed with Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. Schumpeter was a true genius, and an economist on par with Ricardo and Hayek. Read this book to learn some development economics, and a little intellectual history too.

Before Keynes and Mandelbrot there was Schumpeter.......2004-11-23

Schumpeter had an expression that intuitively sums up in a few choice words quite a few of the theoretical concepts of J M Keynes and the empirical/statistical breakthroughs of Benoit Mandelbrot.Unfortunately,Schumpeter lacked the technical training in mathematics,statistics and probability that he needed in order to give a rigorous exposition of his intellectual and intuitive discoveries.Those few choice words are"regular irregularity".Looking at the data available to him early in the 20th century,Schumpeter was able to categorically argue ,correctly ,that price movements over time in different markets and changes in investment over the business cycle could NOT be modeled by assuming that a normal probability distribution could be applied.Schumpeter was the first economist to make a clearcut distinction between risk(applying a normal probability distribution with a stable mean and variance(standard deviation))and uncertainty.Uncertainty would automatically arise over time due to the regular irregularity of constant(nonconstant)technological innovation,change and advance over time.It is quite easy to see that Mandelbrot's nonparametric two variable constructs, measuring discontinuity and short run/long run persistence/dependence(as opposed to the normal distributions assumptions of continuity and independence),are described by Schumpeter's"regular irregularity".Unfortunately,instead of breaking with the classical and neoclassical schools of economics,as both Keynes and Mandelbrot did,Schumpeter decided to remain a loyal soldier,downplaying his severe disagreements.This was Schumpeter's great error.He recognized the severe limitations of the standard price adjustment equilibrium demand and supply analysis,but went along anyway.The potential reader will find chapter 6 of Schumpeter's book alone to be worth the price of admission needed to obtain access to Schumpeter's brilliant breakthroughs.

On the Economic Causes of Business Cycles.......2004-08-29

In this important book Schumpeter explains the ECONOMIC origins of business cycles. In a convincing way Schumpeter argues that business cycles are inevitable in a developing economy.

This does not mean that there are no other causes of business fluctuations such as changes in commercial policy, wars, inflationary government finance or panics. But these constitute non-economic data and cannot be explained by economic theory.

Conventional macroeconomic theory tends to explain business cycles by some kind of error and focus on correcting this error either by active policy or by advocating a hands-off policy. In this view business cycles have no function.

In a stationary ,non-developing economy (i.e. absence of innovations) there would be very little uncertainty. If you and your competitors have been selling essentially the same product in the same market year in year out and if this were to apply to all products and services would there be any economic risk (fires, epidemics and tax increases are non-economic data) left ? Were there any true economic causes, i.e. causes that economics can explain, of business cycles in the Dark Ages ?

There is still something to be said for Keynesian theory (although not for policy) in that uncertainty does influence investment decisions and that because of uncertainty in a monetary economy some hoarding of purchasing power does occur. But these are mere symptoms of underlying endogenous business cycles caused by the inflationary investment booms - "animal spirits" if you like - invoked by the swarms of innovating firms, e.g. the internet bubble, and the deflationary busts that follow when the old firms die off and yesterday's innovators become part of the stationary cycle. Schumpeter explains the origins of economic uncertainty.

What Schumpeter teaches us is that booms and recessions are necessary phenomena in developing economies, that can't be removed or corrected if we are not to thwart the creation of new wealth by innovation. Recessions are the price we pay for long term economic growth. However, recessions can lead to unnecessary panics that cause unnecessary harm to the economy. Here governments or central banks are able to, and should in my view, correct.

I hope you enjoyed this review and welcome any comments.

Schumpeter's explanation of economic progress.......2001-01-23

This book provides a useful corrective to some of the shortcomings of the so-called Austrian theory of Capital and the Business Cycle. Schumpeter, who studied under the great Austrian economists Bohm-Bawerk, was too much of an independent thinker to be part of an economic movement or school. The Theory of Economic Development is his declaration of independence from Austrian capital theory. In the book, he introduces a theory of development and the business cycle that shocked his more orthodox colleagues. Economic development, Schumpeter argues, involves transferring capital from old businesses using established methods of production to businesses using new, innovative methods. Schumpeter's special insight comes in trying to explain how the transfer of capital from the old to the new takes place. Schumpeter argued that it takes place through credit expansion. Through the fractional reserve system, banks are able to create credit, quite literally out of thin air. This money is lent to businesses specializing in new methods of production, who then bid up the price of production goods and consumer goods in their effort to pay for the production goods they require. Thus a form of inflationary spoliation takes place at the expense of established businesses and consumers. Although Schumpeter does not draw the spoliation inference from his theory, it is nonetheless there in the text for all who can see. Credit expansion is a form of spoliation, a form of robbery hardly distinguishable from counterfeiting. But what is unique about the capitalist engine of production is how it uses spoliation in the service of progress. And not merely spoliation through credit expansion, but spoliation through protectionism, stock manipulation, corporate welfare, cartels and monopolies, and outright fraud and manipulation. Schumpeter's book sheds light on just one aspect of this spoliation, and from this stems the book's vital importance to economic theory.

Maintenance Planning, Scheduling and Coordination

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Mixed Feelings
Learn How to Manage Maintenance from a Real Pro

Maintenance Planning, Scheduling and Coordination
Don Nyman , and Joel Levitt
Manufacturer: Industrial Press, Inc.
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0831131438

Book Description

Addresses maintenance management, performance, and control.
Clarifies the scope, responsibilities and contributions of the Planner/Scheduler function and the support of other functions to Job Preparation, Execution, and Completion.
Covers the basics commonly contained within world-class programs for effective execution of maintenance work: planning, parts acquisition, work measurement, coordination and scheduling.
Aids organizations that pursue “Maintenance Excellence”— that state of maintenance management and performance that effectively applies the leading edge policies, procedures, systems, structures, methods, and technologies to maintenance.

Customer Reviews:

Mixed Feelings.......2006-03-22

This book contains many interesting information, guides and principles, but also has too many general talk.

Many concepts and thoughts presented refer to real-life situations and show that authors have comprehensive experience, but at the same time are not developed enough - they very easily end in good-sounding general talk.

Ideas and concepts in this book can trigger some iniciatives in practicioner's office, but everything must be re-worked to have any usefulness in real life.

Learn How to Manage Maintenance from a Real Pro.......2001-12-18

Maintenance is one of the, if not the, most difficult functions to manage and control in industry. Left alone, maintenance tends toward chaos: fighting fires, too busy for PM, repeat failures, with senior management often unappreciative and non-supportive. Nevertheless, without good maintenance, industry can't run. How does one move from chaos to Control?

Mr. Nyman has written the definitive how-to on this subject, and no Plant Engineer or Maintenance Manager should be without this book in his library. If you will not just read, but absorb, the contents of this book for Mr. Nyman's insights, and follow his prescription for planning and scheduling, you will make the move to Control, and make your life, and your job, much easier.

This book gives detailed explanations of the Maintenance Planning function, including both Planner and Supervisor roles, with specifics on the process of how to scope out a job, determine material requirements, coordinate multiple craft groups, estimate time requirements, and then to effectively schedule planned jobs.

The book also includes appropriate metrics for measuring maintenance performance, Planner as well as Supervisor - a topic that is especially important since maintenance is mostly about cost avoidance, which itself is almost impossible to measure.

Book Description

The underlying intention of this book is to demonstrate that while development focused on either `the organization' or `individuals' can have positive results, the most effective growth is achieved if organizational and personal development are combined and integrated. Dixon classes this as collective learning. To help achieve this ideal, Dixon sets out to clarify, in straightforward terms, what organizational learning is and how it can make a difference. To give readers a handle on this information, Dixon uses a model: the Learning cycle, which is comprehensively discussed throughout the book. Further illustration comes by way of case material from: Chaparral Steel, The World Health Organization, Johnsonville Food and discussion of the work of two key figures in the field, Chris Agyris and Reg Revan.

Customer Reviews:

A classic guide to effective organizational learning.......2000-06-09

A new edition of this 1994 classic on organisational learning. Based round use of a variant of the Kolb cycle, it is a valuable practical and theoretical guide to enhanced organisational learning. It is extensively revised, with valuable new material.

When it was first published in 1994, it immediately became a definitive text on organisational learning. The second edition builds on the first, with five new or revised chapters and incorporation of useful case study material of successful organisational learning [I judge that the new material and additional insights fully justify buying a new copy even if you have the old.]. The last five years have seen many useful additions to the literature, but Nancy Dixon's book remains my first choice for straightforward, helpful and thorough coverage of the issues and practice.

The book is practical, illuminating and wide ranging, and with quite enough examples to give it life for those who are seeking practical solutions to practical problems. I highly recommend it to everyone directly concerned with enhancing learning in their organisation (is there anyone who is not or should not be?). Even if you have no time for reading, you should at least read the Preface and Introduction.

It is worth quoting the four main themes listed in the Preface in full:

"Learning is part of work and work involves learning; these are not separate functions but intertwined; the separation we have made of them is artificial and often does not serve us well.

Organizational learning results from intentional and planned efforts to learn. Although it can and does occur accidentally, organizations cannot afford to rely on learning through chance.

As a collective we are capable of learning our way to the answers we need to address our difficult problems. It is ourselves we must rely on for these answers rather than experts, who can, at best, only provide us with answers that have worked in the past."

For a great many organisations these principles call for a major shift from current practice and the author shows how to achieve this.

The book is well organised, well summarised, and well referenced, which makes it very accessible.

A classic guide to effective organizational learning.......2000-06-09

It is worth quoting the four main themes listed in the Preface in full:

"Learning is part of work and work involves learning; these are not separate functions but intertwined; the separation we have made of them is artificial and often does not serve us well.

Learning is not only or even primarily about obtaining correct information or answers from knowledgeable others; it is fundamentally about making meaning out of the experience we and others have in the world. Organizational learning results from intentional and planned efforts to learn. Although it can and does occur accidentally, organizations cannot afford to rely on learning through chance.

For a great many organisations these principles call for a major shift from current practice and the author shows how to achieve this.

The book is well organised, well summarised, and well referenced, which makes it very accessible.

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Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting (National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Income and Wealth)
Victor Zarnowitz
Manufacturer: University Of Chicago Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0226978915

Book Description

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting..

With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Life-Cycle Savings and Public Policy: A Cross-National Study of Six Countries

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Life-Cycle Savings and Public Policy: A Cross-National Study of Six Countries

Manufacturer: Academic Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0121098915

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The key to understanding household saving is obtaining appropriate data. Dealing with differences between rich and poor households, for example, or the old and the young, require observation of a large number of households. The focus of this study is to obtain data on many households from a number of different countries and to examine them in a coherent fashion. The hope is that through these observations we can learn about the ways policies affect savings and that other differences among savers can be controlled for, instead of being blamed on "cultural differences

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Human Psychology and Economic Fluctuations: A New Basic Theory of Human Economics

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Human Psychology and Economic Fluctuations: A New Basic Theory of Human Economics
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The human factor has received scant attention in modern Economics, however this volume redresses the balance by incorporating human psychology into economic analysis. This book constructs a new basic structure model of economic circulation based on a new flow-like concept of utility (diminishing utility) and analyzes the direct relationship between human psychology and economic fluctuation, while expanding it into a consistent explanation of the generation and the collapse of financial bubbles.

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