Average customer rating:
- I agree. He did it again.
- Very Good Introduction
- Learn the stuff before writing a textbook
- Better than any of the courses I had attented.
- Elements of Dynamic Optimization
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Elements of Dynamic Optimization
Alpha C. Chiang
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ASIN: 157766096X |
Book Description
In this volume Dr. Chiang introduces readers to the most important methods of dynamic optimization used in economics. The classical calculus of variations, optimal control theory, and dynamic programming in its discrete form are explained in the usual Chiang fashion--with patience and thoroughness. The economic examples, selected from both classical and recent literature, serve not only to illustrate applications of the mathematical methods, but also to provide a useful glimpse of the development of thinking in several areas of economics. Outstanding features include: (1) written with clarity and a comparable level of expository patience; (2) reinforces discussions of mathematical techniques with numerical illustrations, economic examples, and exercise problems; (3) presents a simple problem with a well- known solution in several different alternative formulations in the numerical illustrations; and (4) explains economic models in a step-by-step manner (from the initial construction through the intricacies of mathematical analysis to its final solution).
Customer Reviews:
I agree. He did it again........2007-09-02
Yes, he did it again. He simply explains it clearly.
Not a serious book for graduate students, but for undergraduates: this book is just in the middle of two levels.
Very Good Introduction.......2005-03-23
This book provides an introduction to the advanced subject of dynamic optimization in an easy to comprehend manner. For students with no previous background in the subject, it is the best book in the market.If you are familiar with Chiang's Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, you can expect the same level of comfort. There are plenty of examples in the text and all the aspects of the subject are covered. A valuable book to own and deserves the 5 stars.
Learn the stuff before writing a textbook.......2002-08-30
This book may be great for students. I has many good examples, is well written and generally looks good. HOWEVER, for anyone who actually knows optimal control theory it is clear that the book has several flaws. The worst example is the section on transversality conditions in infinite horizon problems. Chiang simply has no idea what he is talking about.
Better than any of the courses I had attented........2001-02-22
The book of professor Chiang is not simply a good introductory text to dynamic optimization in the continuous-time form, but also provides a tight explanation of the related original economic models. It is better than any of the courses most people had attented before. I wish a similar book will appear soon, developing dynamic optimization tools, and especially optimal control in the discret-time form.
Elements of Dynamic Optimization.......2000-07-17
Very few people have the quality of expressing ideas and concepts with such clarity and simplicity as Professor Chinag has done. If you are new to dynamic optimization, particularly calculus and variation and optimal control theory you had better start with this treatise.
Book Description
Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities.
Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures.
As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.
Customer Reviews:
A good choice.......2007-02-12
A fantastic book. It's build in three parts: I-Numerics and Econometrics, II- preference based valuation and III-Arbitrage Valuation. Very useful for finance researchers.
Moreover is not an expensive book (compared with similars).
Book Description
This reference work and graduate level textbook considers a wide range of models and methods for analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. The models covered include vector autoregressive, cointegrated, vector autoregressive moving average, multivariate ARCH and periodic processes as well as dynamic simultaneous equations and state space models. Least squares, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection and model specification are treated and a wide range of tests and criteria for model checking are introduced. Causality analysis, impulse response analysis and innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis.
The book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on it. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their tasks. It bridges the gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.
Customer Reviews:
Welcomed Surprise.......2007-10-13
This book provides a fairly elementary view of the vast subject of time series analysis. It easy to read and the author provides lots of basic calculations. Typically, such books stay away from the cutting edge topics but not this one. It is quite complete. I highly recommend it to anyone that knows a few basic things about time series and wants to take it much further.
Book Description
Standard texts and research in economics and finance ignore the absence of evidence from the analysis of real, unmassaged market data to support the notion of Adam Smith's stabilizing Invisible Hand. In stark contrast, this text introduces a new empirically-based model of financial market dynamics that explains the volatility of prices options correctly and clarifies the instability of financial markets. The emphasis is on understanding how real markets behave, not how they hypothetically 'should' behave.
Customer Reviews:
So what? .......2007-03-26
I am a 3rd year PhD student in Financial Economics, and although I should confess that I only browsed the book, not having fully read it (sorry about that...), I must say that this approach totally misses the target. I recommend anyone who is interested in knowing why to look up the following book review:
[...]
Have fun.
Good summary of the literature.......2007-01-10
I think this book is nicely written and covers a variety of subjects. What I missed while reading it was more applied examples.
McCauley complements Keynes and Mandelbrot.......2005-02-01
McCauley's(M) book definitely should be in the library of any technically trained (BA or BS degree in mathematics or statistics and a BA or BS in economics or finance) reader who is aware of the constant failure of neoclassical economics(and its modern variates such as rational expectations,real business cycle theory,monetarism,or supplyside economics), econometrics(Tinbergen,Frisch,Haavelmo and ,unfortunately,"Keynesian"econometricians like Modigliani,Tobin,Klein,and Solow) and financial analysts(Fama,Black,Merton,Scholes,Sharpe,Osborne,Markowitz and Cootner)to explain and forecast turning points in the business cycles of various countries and/or turning points in various financial markets(stock,commodity,real estate,currency,bond,money or derivatives)at any time in the last century,at least,using the assumption of normality(normal,lognormal,bivariate normal,multivariate normal,approximately normal,etc.).M presents a stochastic model based on the application of Green's Theorem to predict the future values of different options contracts(pp.180-192)that avoids the incorrect assumption of normality.M emphasizes changes in returns,as opposed to changes in prices a la Mandelbrot(pp.73-75).Again, the incorrect assumption of normality is avoided.This reviewer views these developments as occurring within the framework established by Mandelbrot no later than 1966.M is developing and improving aspects of Mandelbrot's general approach.However,there are three areas of M's book that need to be revised in a future edition.The first is his analysis of the classical-neoclassical concept of equilibrium and the process of adjustment involved over time.The argument made by neoclassical economists is that the economy( and all markets)is self equilibrating and always tending to or converging toward the optimal equilibrium point,although in point of fact,due to a constant set of external shocks,this equilibrium position is never reached.Thus, all short-run transactions may or may not be made at disequilibrium prices with no recontracting possible.The result,in the short run,is non optimal.However, in the long run,all of the losses and/or gains from such disequilibrium positions cancel or average out so that the resulting process can be analyzed "as if" the different markets were actually attaining equilibriums.Of course,all changes in market prices are assumed to be normally distributed around the equilibrium,market clearing price which is the average(arithmetic mean)of a normal probability distribution.This argument also is incorrect,but is much more difficult to refute since it is much more sophisticated ,using(misusing)the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem without ever actually examining the basic data.M needs to fine tune his basically sound critique to deal with the more sophisticated version of the neoclassical argument.If he does not,the neoclassical response will be that he does not understand microeconomic price theory.Second, Mandelbrot should not be bracketed with the likes of Markowitz Osborne,Sharpe,Black,Scholes,Merton,etc., on p.4 .Mandelbrot has, in fact,been clearly opposed,since the early 1960's, to the type of theoretical and statistical analysis and result that has been published by this group of economists and financial analysts.Third,M appears to have never read Keynes's A Treatise on Probability(1921;TP) or the 1939-40 exchange between Tinbergen and Keynes over the logical foundations of the basic econometric technique of multiple regression and correlation analysis ,as it regards forecasting of the business cycle.Keynes's complete argument can be found in chapter 17,pp.205-214,and chapters 29,30, 32,and 33 of the TP.Keynes always argued that,outside of the fields of life and physical science,the normal distribution was rather special and limited in application. The use of it required clearcut empirical testing of the data before normality could be assumed.Finally,Keynes's analytic tool in the General Theory(1936) is to show that the general case in macroeconomics is the existence of multiple stable equiibria.This describes the commodity or output market.The labor market is a function of changes in the commodity market.The labor market is in a state of constant disequilibrium,equilibrium only possibly occurring in the special case of a global optimum being obtained in the commodity market.M is correct that the analysis in most markets should be based on excess demand functions.Keynes arrived at this approach in 1936.A set of D=Z functions(functions clearly defined by Keynes in the GT and analyzed by Keynes in chapters 20 and 21 of the GT) define a locus of points that Keynes called the AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE.Only one of these points gives a global optimum.The economics profession has made a bloody mess of Keynes's mathematical analysis since the publication of the GT in 1936,constantly confusing the expected aggregate supply function,Z,with the aggregate supply curve,D=Z.M's treatment of Keynes is deficient and needs to be fixed in a later edition.A complete mathematical analysis of Keynes's theory of effective demand is contained in Brady(2004),"Essays on JM Keynes and..."
Some strengths, some weaknesses .......2004-12-28
The book serves up a very interesting and enlightening alternative to traditional economic thought in a variety of different contexts. I would certainly recommend it to any graduate student of physics or economics seeking to have a well rounded view the financial world.
The great weakness of this text is that the author seems to more than simply disagree with traditional economic theory, he despises it. That might not by itself be so great a weakness if the theory offered up in its stead were compelling, but, the author's passion notwithstanding, that is not the case here. The math aside, in tone and method this book reminds me very much of books authored by Intelligent Design advocates, seeking more to destroy the prominent competing theory than to present a coherent theory of its own.
Perhaps such passion is needed to get the neoclassical economists to pay attention. As in many things, I suspect the two schools of thought have much to teach one another.
On a more practical level, this is not a book for those who have not had a very solid grounding in mathematics, and likely unsuitable for all but the brightest, and most mathematically inclined, undergraduates.
Dynamics of Markets - Econophysics and Finance.......2004-12-10
Dynamics of Markets - Econophysics and Finance
by Joseph McCauley
reviewed by: Enrico Scalas
In 1720, Newton invested his money in the South Sea bubble and lost £20000, a lot of money in those days [1].
So, physicists do not always do it better in financial markets.
Having said that, let us now go on and consider the merits and limits of this book by Joseph McCauley.
The book is divided into nine chapters. Chapters 1, 3, 8 and 9 cover material from epistemology (ch. 1), probability theory (ch. 3), fluid dynamics (ch. 8), and the theory of computation (ch. 9). Chapters 2, 4, 5,6 and 7 are mainly devoted to economics and finance. Namely, chapter 2 critically reviews the general theory of equilibrium, chapter 4 is on the dynamics of markets, chapter 5 and 6 present portfolio selection theory and
option pricing, respectively, and, finally, chapter 7 is a criticism of thermodynamic analogies in finance.
The range of interests of the author is overwhelming and this book is the first attempt to put together many concepts taken from various disciplines in a coordinate view. I am a fan of this method and I much appreciate the effort of the author. However, this is also a limit, as the reader looking for recipes to price options or to select a suitable portfolio will be somehow disappointed. In the very same way, those looking for a
rational criticism of neo-classical assumptions in economics are likely to read the chapters on option pricing without great passion.
In a short review, it is impossible to take into account all the aspects of McCauley's book.
I will just discuss one: equilibrium in economics. But, before that, let me underline that this is the first book in Econophysics where everything in finance is done by explicitly formulating and calculating Green functions. Second, the author presents the European option price predictions in a closed algebraic form and, third, Gaussian returns play no role in the predictions fully based on the empirical distribution.
The author presents a nice criticism of the concept of equilibrium in economics which, in itself, is worth
buying and reading the book. The arguments are scattered throughout the book, as the author is interested
in discussing the behaviour of financial market. For economics and finance, the author provides convincing evidence that the only legitimate form of equilibrium is vanishing excess demand. But price fluctuations in actual financial markets cannot be effectively explained by a sequence of different economic equilibria determined by varying exogenous factors. Then, the only possibility is that excess demand is considered as a stochastic process leading to diffusive models for price (or return) dynamics. Thus, the use of the Green-function formalism in Finance is a natural and logical choice.
McCauley's discussion on equilibrium would have been helped by reference to Kaldor's 1972 paper on the irrelevance of equilibrium economics [2]. Kaldor's point of view coincides with the one of McCauley when he argues that ultimately theories must be confronted with the real world. In discussing the difference between an axiomatic theorem and a scientific theory, Kaldor quotes Einstein: << Physics constitute a logical system of thought which is in a state of evolution, whose basis cannot be distilled, as it were, from experience by an inductive
method, but can only be arrived at by free invention. The justification (truth content) of the system rests in the verification of the derived propositions by sense experiences. The skeptic will say: "it may well be true that this system of equations is reasonable from a logical standpoint. But it does not prove that it corresponds to nature". You are right, dear skeptic. Experience alone can decide on truth. >> [3]
Also in this book, as in many contemporary books, there are various misprints and the constant reference to wrong equation numbers is disturbing.
I think that this book can be read with profit both by physicists interested in complex systems and by economists interested in the principles of their discipline. Economists can always refer to Newton's example mentioned above, when they read in the book about the success of physicists in finance.
References
[1] C. Reed, "The Damn'd South Sea" Britain's greatest financial speculation and its unhappy ending, documented in a rich Harvard collection. Harvard Magazine, May-June 1999.
[2] N. Kaldor, "The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics", The Economic Journal, vol. 82, n. 328, 1237-1255, 1972.
[3] A. Einstein, "Ideas and Opinions", Gramercy; Reprint edition (December 12, 1988).
Book Description
This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions.
Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions.
Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.
Book Description
This book is an effective, concise text for students and researchers that combines the tools of dynamic programming with numerical techniques and simulation-based econometric methods. Doing so, it bridges the traditional gap between theoretical and empirical research and offers an integrated framework for studying applied problems in macroeconomics and microeconomics.
In part I the authors first review the formal theory of dynamic optimization; they then present the numerical tools and econometric techniques necessary to evaluate the theoretical models. In language accessible to a reader with a limited background in econometrics, they explain most of the methods used in applied dynamic research today, from the estimation of probability in a coin flip to a complicated nonlinear stochastic structural model. These econometric techniques provide the final link between the dynamic programming problem and data. Part II is devoted to the application of dynamic programming to specific areas of applied economics, including the study of business cycles, consumption, and investment behavior. In each instance the authors present the specific optimization problem as a dynamic programming problem, characterize the optimal policy functions, estimate the parameters, and use models for policy evaluation.
The original contribution of Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications lies in the integrated approach to the empirical application of dynamic optimization programming models. This integration shows that empirical applications actually complement the underlying theory of optimization, while dynamic programming problems provide needed structure for estimation and policy evaluation.
Book Description
Modern business cycle theory and growth theory uses stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models. Many mathematical tools are needed to solve these models. The book presents various methods for computing the dynamics of general equilibrium models. In part I, the representative-agent stochastic growth model is solved with the help of value function iteration, linear and linear quadratic approximation methods, parameterised expectations and projection methods. In order to apply these methods, fundamentals from numerical analysis are reviewed in detail. Part II discusses methods for solving heterogeneous-agent economies. In such economies, the distribution of the individual state variables is endogenous. This part of the book also serves as an introduction to the modern theory of distribution economics. Applications include the dynamics of the income distribution over the business cycle or the overlapping-generations model. Through an accompanying home page to this book, computer codes to all applications can be downloaded.
Average customer rating:
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Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data: Techniques of Nonlinear Dynamics (Studies in Computational Finance, Volume 2) (Studies in Computational Finance)
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ASIN: 0792376803 |
Book Description
Over the last decade, dynamical systems theory and related nonlinear methods have had a major impact on the analysis of time series data from complex systems. Recent developments in mathematical methods of state-space reconstruction, time-delay embedding, and surrogate data analysis, coupled with readily accessible and powerful computational facilities used in gathering and processing massive quantities of high-frequency data, have provided theorists and practitioners unparalleled opportunities for exploratory data analysis, modelling, forecasting, and control.
Until now, research exploring the application of nonlinear dynamics and associated algorithms to the study of economies and markets as complex systems is sparse and fragmentary at best.
Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data brings together a coherent and accessible set of chapters on recent research results on this topic. To make such methods readily useful in practice, the contributors to this volume have agreed to make available to readers upon request all computer programs used to implement the methods discussed in their respective chapters.
Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data is a valuable resource for researchers and graduate students studying complex systems in finance, biology, and physics, as well as those applying such methods to nonlinear time series analysis and signal processing.
Average customer rating:
- Great clear textbook
- Chiang's book is best.
- A must book for every serious economics student
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Dynamic Optimization: The Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control in Economics and Management (Advanced Textbooks in Economics)
Morton I. Kamien , and
Nancy L. Schwartz
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Optimal Control Theory and Static Optimization in Economics
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ASIN: 0444016090 |
Book Description
The long awaited second edition of
Dynamic Optimization is now available. Clear exposition and numerous worked examples made the first edition the premier text on this subject. Now, the new edition is expanded and updated to include essential coverage of current developments on differential games, especially as they apply to important economic questions; new developments in comparative dynamics; and new material on optimal control with integral state equations.
The second edition of
Dynamic Optimization provides expert coverage on:- methods of calculus of variations - optimal control - continuous dynamic programming - stochastic optimal control -differential games. The authors also include appendices on static optimization and on differential games.
Now in its new updated and expanded edition,
Dynamic Optimization is, more than ever, the optimum choice for graduate and advanced undergraduate courses in economics, mathematical methods in economics and dynamic optimization, management science, mathematics and engineering.
New features of
Dynamic Optimization will show students:advances in how to do comparative dynamics; how to optimally switch from one state equation to another during the planning period; how to take into account the history of the system governing an optimization problem through the use of an integral state equation; and how to apply differential games to problems in economics and management sciences.
Customer Reviews:
Great clear textbook.......2007-01-27
I believe this was the first textbook to introduce dynamic optimization to economists. It's simply and clearly written. Each chapter introduces a new development, goes into the theory behind it and gives examples, in just a few pages so you can go through it in bite-sized chunks. The style is unfussy but doesn't talk down to you. Two appendices explain important theorems in calculus and differential equations, briefly but in enough detail to be usable if you aren't familiar with those parts of the maths. This is an excellent textbook, although I can't compare it with the competition.
Chiang's book is best........2001-05-04
This book is decent, but I think that Chiang book is better that this book, I recommend "Elements of Dynamic Optimization" from Alpha Chiang (ISBN: 157766096X), it's better.
A must book for every serious economics student.......2001-02-15
There is no doubt that to master in advanced economics one should have a firm grasp on mathematical tools. Kamien and Schwartz's Dynamiz Optimization is the perfect book to this end. Actually it deserves a rating more than five stars.
Book Description
The advent of accurate and continuous equity price histories made possible the study of equity price movement as a function of time, independent of all other variables.
Early studies of such data produced the conclusion that equity prices vary in a random, hence unpredictable, way.
This conclusion has been replaced in the last decade as evidence mounts that equity price variation is ordered and quasi-predictable.
The relationship between past and future prices is found to be complex and nonlinear. Current simplified models represent price movement as consisting of a linear combination of wave functions with specific and consistent interrelationships. This viewpoint has led to the development of the Wave Theory of Price Action.
From this Wave Theory, a body of practical application methods called Cyclic Analysis has been evolved which permits a fully integrated and wholly technical approach to the problem of trading and investing successfully in the stock and commodity markets.
This approach features the following unique capabilities: prediction of price-reversal timing, prediction of the price at an anticipated reversal, estimation of the extent of the price move expected to follow a reversal, and evaluation of a transaction before entry in terms of risk and profit potential.
Cyclic Analysis methodology has been field tested since 1971, and computerized analysis aids are available.
Customer Reviews:
Not telling you how to trade.......2000-08-31
This is a pamphlet that is basically a primer on J.M. Hurst's Cyclic Analysis Trading Program that he did back in the '70's. Whether or not Cyclic Analysis even works, you decide, but I sure would love to find somebody who can make the returns he promised in his book "Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing." If you want to learn about Cyclic Analysis, move on, this won't help you. I'd imagine the person who actually makes the returns Hurst suggested would be the richest person in the U.S. in no time at all. Last time I checked, Bill Gates made his money on Microsoft, not on the theory that stocks will make bottoms every 3 months or every 14 days.
Teaser for the whole course.......2000-01-24
This book is a brief introduction to cycles and how they are used in trading. But it does not have info on how cycle lengths are determined; it appears the author uses a computer program. It might stimulate more interest in cycles, but by itself, won't help your trading, in my opinion.
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