Book Description
The leading authority on system dynamics explains this approach to organizational problem solving, emphasizing simulation models to understand issues such as fluctuating sales, market growth and stagnation, the reliability of forecasts and the rationality of business decision-making. The CD includes modeling software from Vensim, ithink, and PowerSim.
Customer Reviews:
Excelent book.......2007-10-17
This book is really impressive. Is an eye opener. Must read for Industrial Engineering Students, must have for professors and great addition for a professional looking for new ideas.
One of the best SD books with connection to practical work.......2007-10-06
"Business Dynamics" is a great book leading the newcomer -as myself- into the field of SD and the experienced system dynamicist can use it as a knowledge pool.
Even though the book is rather expensinve -and heavy alike- it covers great wisdom of John Sterman (he is by the way a scholar of the founder of the field, Jay W. Forrester) and is more than worthwhile buying if you are strongly interested in the field.
I was lucky to meet John and Jay this summer during a specific SD workshop at MIT and the yearly System Dynamics Society Conference and could chat with both of them (they are both very practicably using SD with a strong academic background). Learning and getting more experienced in System Dynamics and the use for daily problem solving is a dynamic and evolving process of wisdom with lots of feedback ("Business Dynamics" can help a lot in getting deeper insights.
Best regards
Ralf
Excellent.......2007-08-29
Excellent guide to systems thinking, clear examples, clear thinking and very interesting conclusions reached. highly recommended
buen libro.......2007-02-22
como parte de la materia lo llevo, me salio mas barato que en mexico y me es util para mi carrera
Amazing.......2007-01-12
The definitive book on Business dynamics !
It may look dificult to follow, but it isn`t really easy to read and follow !
The cd brings good examples.
Book Description
Swing trading is gaining popularity as a powerful method to increase returns—and potentially lower risks—by profiting from short-term price moves. The Master Swing Trader explains how traders can use technical analysis, charting, and market sentiment to make trades that hold through price fluctuations and noise with wider stops. This complete, practical guide to making profitable short-term trades—based on the author’s popular “Mastering the Trade” online course—uses dozens of charts and graphs to illustrate proven swing trading concepts and strategies. Experienced day, position, and online traders will benefit immediately from: - The 7 Bells – unique tools to uncover promising short-term prospects - Techniques to profit from low-risk short sales - The 4 repeating cycles for perfectly timed trades
Download Description
The Master Swing Trader explains how traders can use technical analysis, charting, and market sentiment to make trades that hold through price fluctuations and noise with wider stops.
Customer Reviews:
Hazy Subshine.......2007-10-12
I rated MST two stars because the prose reminds me of Kung Fu's Shaolin Monk, Kwai Chang Caine. Unlike John Murphy, Alexander Elder and Steve Nison, Mr. Farley fails to clearly communicate his ideas and the writing is verbose. I read the entire book, learned a few new things but it was like panning for gold.
A good, if hard to read, trading book.......2007-07-28
I felt the need to post a review because it seems to me most reviewers think the only options for rating a product are 1 a 5. To preface: I'm a college student who has recently been looking into technical analysis. This book was recommended to me by a friend. I don't claim to be an expert in trading.
First of all, I have to agree, this book is incredibly hard to read. The author comes off as an over-verbose pretentious individual.
Difficulty aside, this book gives you an incredible wealth of information on trading. I couldn't disagree more with a past reviewer who claims that this book is marketed as a "Get rich quick". I feel this book is quite the opposite. It gives you a very practical overview of many of the popular indicators and TA techniques(as opposed to say, the introductory explanation as offered in Murphy's) as well as lots of general tips to aspiring swing traders. It then goes on to outline some very thoroughly defined trading systems and all the knowledge needed to execute them.
This book is long and to be honest, painfully boring sometimes. However if you are looking to increase your knowledge of trading, I feel this is a book that should definitely be considered. Look elsewhere if you want a quick weekend read.
No substance.......2007-04-18
There are some good principles in the book, but its way to easy to get lost in all of the repetition and blandness. The section on fibonocci retracements was useful and seems to work well for me in practice; however, I didn't get much else from the book.
One of the Best.......2006-11-12
I had read a lot of reviews over this book before deciding to purchase it. The reviews--more than any trading book out there, at the time--pretty much had the vote split between people who absolutely hated it and those who absolutely loved it. The deciding factor that lead to my purchase was the author (a professional trader of many years) of another book who spoke highly of "The Master Swing Trader"'s author, and the work he had done in writing this piece.
This is not a fluff book to hook you into trading. This book is geared towards those few individuals out there who wish to make trading a profession, rather than a passing fancy. I read a large number of those fluff books during my decision to become a professional day trader. I wish I had picked up this book first, because it goes into all the techniques I now use today in order to be successful. Not only does this book discuss the various trading techniques and their set-ups, along with all so important exit strategies, but more importantly it discusses why price moves in certain directions, why it jumps forth, why it breaks down--basically, it offers rare insights into the psyche of the trading crowd that is the market (all those traders out there who are competing against you).
The writing style has been berated as too 'text-book' in presentation, but I beg to differ. It flows with an elegant prose that distinguishes the author not only as a true trader, but also as a true writer who can hook those who wish to relate to the generously offered insights. Only those who have been through the grueling battles in actual trading scenarios and who hunger to know why things went right or why they went wrong, will appreciate this work and set it up on their bookshelf next to the other trading classics.
If you are used to simplistic writing such as can be found on any dimestore bookshelf, with the likes of Stephen King, this elevated work may certainly be beyond your grasp. If, however, you can digest proper grammer and get past poetic prose, this book will open a window rarely seen before. It is probably one of the best all around trading books ever written.
Good luck to those aspiring traders who hunger to understand market sentiment.
WOW...just wow.......2006-11-09
What a horrible book. The writing style of the author is horrendous! Impossible to follow or even comprehend what he is trying to teach. All the information in this book is readily available online. Save your money and buy "Mastering the trade" by Scott instead.
Book Description
"Sometime in the next five years you may kick yourself for not reading and re-reading Kindleberger's Manias, Panics, and Crashes." -Paul A. Samuelson, Institute Professor Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
"One never picks up a work by Charles Kindleberger without anticipating a feast of entertainment. But underneath the hilarious anecdotes, the elegant epigrams, and the graceful turns of phrase, Kindleberger is deadly serious. The manner in which human beings earn their livings is no laughing matter to him, especially when they attempt to do so at the expense of one another." -from the Foreword by Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods and The Power of Gold
Praise for Manias, Panics, and Crashes
"Classic. . . . Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a durable guide to meditation: wise, witty, and practical. It is a template against which to measure the latest financial crisis-whatever and whenever that happens to be." -David Warsh, Boston Globe
"Definitive." -Floyd Norris, New York Times
"Menacing..." -The New Yorker
"[Manias, Panics, and Crashes] is a scholarly account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries."-Richard Lambert, Financial Times
"This book sparkles with the best of Kindleberger's wit, insight, and passion for financial history. A real delight."-Robert Z. Aliber, Professor of International Economics and Finance, University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business
"What long has been the best history of financial pathologies is now even better. The reader who absorbs Kindleberger's lessons will be prepared to foresee and navigate the financial crises that surely lie ahead. Like a true classic, Manias, Panics, and Crashes is both timely and timeless." -Richard Sylla, Kaufman Professor of Financial History, Stern School of Business, New York University
Customer Reviews:
A classic -- but showing its age.......2006-09-25
This book probably deserves the title of "classic", being one of the first attempts by an economist to popularize for a broader audience a theory of speculative financial bubbles that takes into account "modern" macroeconomic theory (e.g. Keynes and the monetarists). The book identifies many common themes among some of the great financial manias in history, providing along the way some entertaining anecdotes and commentary.
Nevertheless, classic or not, I was a bit disapointed with the book. After 30 years and several editions it seems to be showing its age, with numerous uneven and unconvincing attempts to update the text to the late 20th century. I also found that the many historical examples were not well told or clearly differentiated and tended to blend together. Chancellor's "Devil take the Hindmost" seems to do a better job at providing a history of the great speculative bubbles. Most importantly, Kindelberger writes alot about what goverbnments should do after crashes occur, but he does not help much with a useful framework for spotting bubbles as they emerge -- or understanding how they tend to unravel.
Great Scholarly work but how does an investor make a buck?.......2006-02-26
I don't recommend this book for a general business audience. It does a fine job of chronicling various panics. I was hoping for a book that focused on causes of panics and manias and how to identify one when you are in it.
Speculation leads to disaster and must be borne by the central bank........2005-12-08
Speculation excesses are referred too as mania and revulsion from these excesses take the form of crisis, crashes, or panic which are historically common. The excess speculation builds as investor seize new opportunities for profits and are overdone. Hyman Minsky describes these new opportunities as the result of displacement. Displacement are events leading up to a crisis, such as, outbreak or end of war, bumper harvest or crop failure, widespread adoption of an invention, or some political event. Displacement must be a significant size. Displacement brings opportunities for profit and increased demand causes price to rise. Banks artificially increase supply without proportional increases in demand by expanding the money supply that demand would have generated. The money supply expansion is notoriously unstable. Feedback fuels Euphoria for price increase; the Euphoria turns investment from really valuable products to delusional ones. Boom is characterized as rising interest rates, as Banks threaten discredit and hedge against the speculation by raising rates; trading velocity increases and the velocity of circulation and turnover ratios rise; and stock prices increases. Boom is fed by expansion caused by bank credit; credit increases the money supply and destablizes the investment.
Once the excessive character of the upswing is realized, the financial system experiences a distress and then rushes to reverse expansion resembling panic: real or financial assets converting to money, premature repayment of debt, and prices crashes in commodities. Minsky explains that selling at the top falters because there is not enough money too sell out at the top.
Revulsion of the commodity halts banks from lending on the commodity as collateral, this is called discredit. Discredit leads the panic as people crowd to get out the door. People may stop trying to get out the door, if price falls and the commodity looks like a bargin, trade is cut and price declines stop hemmoraging, or a lender convinces the market money will become available. When the economy becomes depressed, Banks view borrowing as a risky prospect and may prefer to put their money in government securities.
Banks fail when too many borrowers default on their loans and the borrowers collateral is not enough to cover the debt. Inflation and deflation should not affect long term growth. When prices fall a corresponding drop in wages also may occur. Employment and purchasing power remain neutral. Wo, comes unto the borrower. The borrower suffers because the debts are fixed. The creditor benefits because expense money is returned in debt payments and this money can buy more, a value added function. Depression is characterized by a reluctance for banks to loan money, discreditation of the commodities to be used as collateral decreases the amount of loanable money the bank is willing to extend to the borrower, and tight money slows growth.
The world markets operate as if men are rationale over the long run. Irrationality may exist as economic actors choose the wrong economic model, fail to account for a particular piece of information, or fail despite a rational expectation as lags between stimulus and reaction fail to meet expectation. Composite fallacy confuses the truth, as investors believe that the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Speculation leads to disaster and must be borne by the central bank.
Superb treatment of the speculative nature of financial markets.......2005-09-29
Kindleberger's book provides massive historical evidence to support his assessment of the boom-bust nature of financial markets.Basically,speculative excesses,financed in large part by margin account loans and easy bank credit,leads to a pattern where the debt load of many market participants is overleveraged.Like the straw that breaks the camel's back,all it takes is an exogenous(or endogenous) shock to pop the speculative bubble .The value of the underlying assets of the overleveraged market participants collapses.These individuals go bankrupt,causing a chain reaction as other participants are impacted by the bankruptcies and up bankrupt themselves.Kindleberger correctly identifies the major theorists of this outlook as I.Fisher(his debt-deflation theory)and H.Minsky(his financial fragility theory).There are a few small defects.First,Benoit Mandelbrot's nearly fifty years of statistical-empirical work on the "wild " risk inherent in all of the different financial markets worldwide would have provided a perfect fit with the historical and anecdotal evidence that Kindleberger has collected.Second,there is only a brief footnote on the role of exogenous "sunspot"uncertainty going on in this historical process.Kindleberger overlooks the technical analysis of the effect of uncertainty, in microscopic,decision theoretic terms,on decisions made by Keynes(Keynesian uncertainty)and Ellsberg(Ellsbergian ambiguity).The problem here is not necessarily irrational decision makers,but rational decision makers who lack sufficient relevant information to apply the standard neoclassical decision techniques.These decision makers KNOW that they don't know.They then decide to follow those whom they believe are better informed.This leads to crowd,herd,and cascade effects that both creates the bubble and the crash.One possible way to stop this recurring pattern would be to eliminate margin loans Third,Kindleberger appears to be unaware that Keynes would agree with most of Kindleberger's case.From Keynes's early 1910 lectures on the negative impacts of speculation on stock markets through the A Tract on Monetary Reform,A Treatise on Money,and the General Theory(chapters 12,17,and 22),one can find Kindleberger's points explicitly considered in Keynes's work.Of course,Keynes does not provide the vast historical evidence that Kindleberger provides.Keynes would likely argue that ,since his theory is a general theory of decision making under conditions of risk,uncertainty,and ignorance that applies where ever organized financial markets exist,he would already know what the historical record would show if examined in historical detail.
A must for your collection.......2004-12-17
This book lays out the blueprint to spot a financial crisis in the making.
A. Plenty of money in supply and preferably at cheap rates.
B. A 'new technology'-from the birth of railroad stocks, to letter stocks of the 1960s and dot coms of the late 1990s.
C. A willing and enthusiastic media outlet (think CNBC and the dot com boom).
D. Cab drivers and plumbers suddenly trading actively in the respective markets. Another note I would throw in is when the investment community are saying 'it is different this time, simple valuation of securities is no longer possible'.
Kindleberger's work draws on this scenario time and time again.
A required reading for anyone actively trading in the markets.
Book Description
Today’s managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until it’s too late. Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting model—based on just a few key economic indicators—for identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly. A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didn’t see the downturn coming Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan
Customer Reviews:
Take bashing by the theorists wth a grain of salt.......2007-07-22
Another reviewer remarked that this book did not pass the Statistics 101 test. It is true that Ellis provides no supporting data for his ideas.
However, in some of my own work I did find considerable support for one important aspect of the Ellis approach: his suggestion that readers ignore quarterly or monthly percent changes and focus instead on year over year changes.
I, too, look at data year over year. I did not work with the exact same data sets Ellis discusses, but among the sets I did use, I noticed that multi-factor models of stock, bond and commodity returns against economic series showed t-scores below 1.00 when the variables were expressed as monthly returns. The theorists who bash Ellis here know that anything below 2.00 should be deemed suspect. But when, I re-cast the same sets of variables on a year-to-year basis, the t-scores jumped above 2.00, in fact, most were above 5.00 and some were above 10.00. That, or course, doesn't "prove" things (correlation vs. causation, curve fitting, yada yada yada). But it does add support to Ellis' claim that going year-to-year, which removes a lot of noise, can be very helpful.
It is not that simple.......2007-07-20
Don't get me wrong, the book has its merits.
It cuts through hundreds of economic indicators to select a few that make economic sense, telling a convincing story (but oversimplified). It will help mostly people with some market experience but lacking enough flying hours in macroeconomic (big-picture) thinking.
Pros :
1 - Acessible to people without an advanced degree, seeking a non-overly-technical introduction to both macroeconomics and its relation to stock market over time.
2 - Explain everything in a intuitive way
3 - Clearly tells his perspective of "how" and "why" things happen in economics, however some of the causalities he writes in the book may not be a consensus among economists or professional analysts.
Cons :
1 - Oversimplifies Inflation, foreign trade, budget deficits, the role of politics and expectations, global economics
2 - Overstates the importance of "charting" and lacks even the most basic "statistics 101" test.
3 - Macroeconomic history is a lot more complex than this book tries to show, with different monetary policy periods (keynesians in 60s and 70s - monetarists in 80s), different fiscal policies ("anomalies" in the book), productivity growth, shocks, demographics, wars, etc.
How stock market reacts to economic changes is also not that simple and may confuse even smart (but naive) guys who may think they understood a lot of macro-thinking after reading this book..
Bottom line : Book does not add too much to those already in the field. It's a very good introduction to an average investor seeking more macroeconomic knowledge (big-picture investing), but be *very careful* with oversimplification of economic history, hidden unstable relations between variables and not-that-simple theoretical subjects;
Ahead of the Curve.......2007-07-09
This book describe the how the market work in a very concise and simple way. Fantastic. Also maintain a site of market data update.
clear and sensible.......2007-06-06
I am only about 75% finished, but Mr. Ellis has a clear and simple writing style. His arguments are easy to follow and understand. His analysis and data treatment are compelling. I would recommend this book to a junior market analyst (or home investor who would like to understand market forecasting on year/decade time scales).
This book is definitely worth reading........2006-11-08
The author's approach toward economic data is very refreshing, in that he works quite hard at finding data that is predictive of stock market declines. Just the chapter on the "recession obsession", and why its bad for you makes the whole book worthwhile. It really put a lot of economic numbers in perspective, and made me realize it was actually possible to use economic numbers to your advantage.
I would also add that his writing style is very easy to follow. While it definitely helps if you have some background in economics, it is really not necessary.
Book Description
Winner ForeWord Magazine Bronze Award for Best Business/Economics Book of the Year. This investment book uses extensive full-color graphics to explain the fundamentals of the markets-an essential resource before reading how-to books or engaging investment advice. It is a unique combination of investment art and investment science that enables the reader to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of current market conditions.
Customer Reviews:
Very good book, with unconventional ideas.......2007-10-24
This book brings fresh and unconventional ideas to the table. The author challenges the very popular buy and hold strategy, and presents a very good case on how using it in the next few years might not be very rewarding.
His idea is that we are entering a secular bear market, similar to the one that occurred in the 60s-70s. A secular bear market is a long period (10-20 years) where the stock market doesn't perform very well. Although it might have its ups and downs, the buy and hold strategy in this environment leads to ... unexpected returns. As an example, buying and holding in the 60s with a 10-15 year time frame would lead to almost 0% returns.
Other reviewers complain that if they listened to the author they would have missed the 2004-2007 bull market. But the author is really trying to say that if you stay invested at all times for the next 10-15 years, you might not gain as much as you are expecting. If, instead, you are trying to capitalize on bull markets, and selling in the bear markets, you're not buying and holding.
Many books advocate the buy and hold strategy. I think everyone should at least read some books that challenge this idea, and this one is a very good place to start.
Excellent for the Non Financial Dude.......2007-06-27
I am not in the financial business, but purchased this book to help me just understand the market for my 401K and mutual funds. After reading it I am starting to feel like I have an understanding of what I'm looking for to start to purchase stocks in companies. This book explained everything perfect.
Good Concepts, But Goes Astray.......2007-06-11
Unexpected return has an excellent compilation of historical data and does a good job of presenting the case for secular bull and bear markets and the components that influence market results over the longer term. However, it goes badly when the author attempts to provide a formula to predict the future market. I read this book in early 2007. If you had followed the authors predictions, you would have missed out on close to a 20% increase in the market (inlcuding dividends) from the time he wrote it. That is the risk you take when trying to simply apply regression analysis to the future (remember the demise of Long-Term Capital Management!). Overall, I would still read the book for historical content and perspective, but if you think you can predict the market with simple formulas ... forget it.
Past history is indication of future results.......2007-03-21
Excellent book on the market. It is not a 'How to get rich fast' book, but one that explains the dynamics of the stock market and how the returns correlate.
The tables, graphs, and figures are extremely well done and the book is well laid out.
If you want to learn about the market (or playing field of the market) this is the book for you. It re-enforced a lot of the views of the market for me.
One of the best.......2007-03-16
This is a book that was referred to me on the chatroom at Dorsey Wright Associates. [...] you can view his information. I am a CFP, CIMC and have an MBA infinance form Pepperdine University CA. The information is layed out so anyone can understand it. Yes I do make recommendations on where the risk is in the market and how to avoid most of that risk. Dorsey Wright helps in that regurd.
Charles W Shirey
[...]
Book Description
Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) is the newest wave in productivity. This revolutionary approach is an outcome of lean thinking; however, PLM eliminates waste and efficiency across all aspects of a product's life--from design to deployment--not just in its manufacture. By using people, product information, processes, and technology to reduce wasted time, energy, and material across an organization and into the supply chain, PLM drives the next generation of lean thinking.
Now PLM pioneer Michael Grieves offers everyone from Six Sigma and lean practitioners to supply chain managers, product developers, and consultants a proven framework for adopting this information-driven approach. Product Lifecycle Management shows you how to greatly enhance your firm's productivity by integrating the efforts of your entire organization.
Most companies are seeing the returns of their efforts in lean methods diminishing, as the most fruitful applications have already been addressed. Here, Grieves reveals how PLM gives you an opportunity to make improvements both within and across functional areas in order to increase agility, optimize efficiency, and reduce costs across the board. He gives you the most comprehensive view of PLM available, fully outlining its characteristics, method, and tools and helping you assess your organizational readiness.
There's also proven examples from the field, where PLM is being widely adopted by leading companies, including General Motors, General Electric, and Dell, that are widely adopting the approach. You'll see how PLM has saved these companies billions in unnecessary costs and shaved as much as 60% off cycle times. With this book you'll learn how to:
- Develop and implement your PLM strategy to support your corporate objectives
- Engage all your employees in using information to eliminate waste
- Enable improved information flow
- Better organize and utilize your intellectual capital
- Foster an environment that drives PLM
Lean manufacturing can only take your organization so far. To bring your productivity to the next level and save remarkable amounts of time, money, and resources, Product Lifecycle Management is your one-stop, hands-on guide to implementing this powerful methodology.
Customer Reviews:
Clearly the next step for collaborative management.......2006-07-14
I think that Dr. Grieves book presents a compelling next step in how companies AND their outsourced suppliers can collaborate over the entire lifetime of the customer relationship to insure that customers continue to get satisfaction from their products.
Think about it this way: If you are buying a car that you are going to own for 5 years, don't you want to make sure that 4 years in to that ownership experience, the company that makes the fuel injection system has told the dealer about its new, updated software system for improving mileage . . . so you can get the benefit from it?
Without a unified approach to sharing information across functions and across time, there is no way the car company, the outsourced supplier and the dealer could make that happen. That is the essential breakthrough of PLM thinking, and Dr. Grieves does a great job of explaining it.
There is a lot of value here for companies in any industry that is characterized by a global, interconnected supply chain and a rapidly changing product lifecycle.
Marshall Toplansky
CEO
Core Strategies, Inc.
Irvine, CA
The Primer on PLM.......2006-02-22
Grieves book on PLM is a fundamental primer on a subject basic to anyone involved devloping, marketing, buying and using a product. In other words, if your in business you should read this book. Importantly, his overview is comprehensive and provides a complete framework for understanding the scope and complexity of the practice in the modern manufacturing environment. The message is clear, you can't buy Product Lifecycle Management, you have to do Product Life Cycle Management. Whether your just beginning to look at PLM or are re-configuring your current capabilities, I would recomend everyone involved give this book a thorough read. I know my team will.
Customer Reviews:
The best book I have ever read for predicting stock trends.......2005-11-04
Harry Dent really made a spectacular call back in 1993 in this book about the tremendous rise in the Dow during the 90's. He even predicted the slump in 2002-2003. His ideas of why this happened are presented in a simple theme that I found very intuitive. This book is a gem.
As for other books by Mr. Dent, he decided to contradict himself and go for very unrealistic goals for the Dow. Read this book and ONLY this book. Too late to make a killing on the stock market but still time to get out of stocks before the coming slump.
An Update.......2003-10-21
An update on this 1992 book "The Great Boom Ahead" from the perspective of 2003. First, Harry Dent is the eternal optimist and this earlier book correctly predicted the bull market of the 90s, while Robert Prechter, Martin Weiss, Nick Guarino, etc. were all wrong (in their timing at least) in predicting a downturn and depression to occur. But wait....the 2000-2002 downturn that cost so many investors money has at least opened a few eyes. And on pages 16, 18 and 34-36 of this book Harry Dent himself predicts the "Mother of all Depressions" to arrive around 2010, when the baby boomers' spending spree is over and they begin to retire. So the eternal optimist Harry Dent AGREES with the eternal pessimists and "doom-n-gloomers" about the inevitable outcome. They just disagree on the timing. So somewhere between 2004 - 2010 we can expect the largest downturn in U.S. history since 1929-1932. Enjoy the rest of the boom !!
A Real Eye Opener.......2002-01-05
Well supported by fact and Examples. Just wish I had read it years earler as I could have saved many $. I just couldn't put it down. Now I wouldn't be without it.
Highly Recommended!.......2001-10-03
Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s book is remarkable both for the overall accuracy of its predictions and for the simplistic model upon which those predictions depend. Written in 1993, it claims a niche within the general family of "trend" books written by the likes of Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt. The work anticipated our current era of super bullish markets, which it predicts will continue through 2007. The crystal ball drops a few items, given that a few years have passed since publication. Nonetheless, it offers a clear macroeconomic forecast and investment tool. If you sense the Fed just doesn't get the New Economy, this is the book for you. We [...] recommend this book to those seeking to understand the United States' era of record-breaking economic gains (and Japan's current hard times).
Where's Gen X or Silent Generation???.......2001-04-22
It was interesting book and having read it in 2001, I can see that many of his simple forecasts in the 90's are often on the mark. However there are many flaws that reflects his boomer navel-gazing. Why, I wonder, did Dent never chart the population surges of Silent Generation or Generation X? Moreover, where did all the immigrants disappeared to? Did they fell into the black hole after entering America? What about the inner-city blacks with unusally high crime-imprisoned rate? What about the endless resources from nanotech, biotech, and outer space? What about the cracking of welfare states now that communism is no longer a threat? I am sure that if Dent have charted all these information, the picture will look striking different.For example, many boomers prided themselves on being "largest generation". Based on simple birth rate, this is correct, but the picture is incomplete. The busters or Gen X may have smaller birth rate, but far higher immigrantion since the 60's, particulary after Vietnam War when many young people and children escaped dictatorships from Asia and Eastern Europe. Taken together, the Gen X is actually a far larger generation in simple numbers than so-called Boomers. At same time, it also have smaller capital to start business with and must struggle with crack-up of welfare state at same time. Yet, the Xers are more likely and more willing to start businesses and freelance than Boomers who must deal with downsizing from comfortable white and blue collar jobs that they were trained for all their lives.
So as far as I am concerned, there may be a big recession as the boomers retired (certainly, there will certainly be a death of welfare state by that time, and with it, the politics as the driving force of economy) but there will not be a great depression like or greater than that of the 1930's.
Book Description
Generation to Generation presents one of the first comprehensive overviews of family business as a specific organizational form. Focusing on the inevitable maturing of families and their firms over time, the authors reveal the dynamics and challenges family businesses face as they move through their life cycles. The book asks questions, such as: What is the difference between an entrepreneurial start-up and a family business, and how does one become the other? How does the meaning of the business to the family change as adults and children age? How do families move through generational changes in leadership, from anticipation to transfer, and then separation and retirement? This book is divided into three sections that present a multidimensional model of a family business. The authors use the model to explore the various stages in the family business life span and extract generalizable lessons about how family businesses should be organized.
Customer Reviews:
Great framework for family business.......2007-10-01
This book provides a great framework on family business. Started my career in a family business, I have my share of understanding on family business. Typically, there some mixed up on personal emotion and professionalism. By using the framework discussed in the book helps folks in family business to focus more on business, less on personal emotion.
A 'must-read' for the whole family !!.......2003-11-23
"Generation to Generation", published by Harvard Business School Press, is an attempt to model how family businesses work in essence. The authors' research include interesting vignettes and 'lessons-learned' from a variety of families; how they achieved their goals, how they resolved conflicts between family members etc. Since the topic of family business in academics is fairly new, this book can be considered as one of the best in its field.
Important topics (such as succession, development stages and inter & intragenerational issues) are covered in detail to enlighten the reader. Contrasting viewpoints are also included to make the reader think for his or herself.
In general, the book is fairly easy to read since it explains the modeling theory with examples from numerous enterprises.
I strongly recommend it all who are destined to work in the complex system called family business.
Packed with Knowledge!.......2002-04-02
Most businesses in the world today are owned by families, but only a small percentage of these companies will survive and grow into major corporations. The unique challenges posed by family ownership can undermine even the best-performing small business, as issues of control and succession permeate the generations. In Generation to Generation, the authors apply the simple premise that managing a family-owned business to a large extent means managing the family itself. To that end, they provide a rich compendium of research and strategic suggestions for those charged with making a family business work, including the consultants who guide them. We from getAbstract highly recommend this book for these applicable measures and methods, which will help the performance of both business and family.
A perfect blend of theory and practice!.......1999-09-17
The authors effectively present a theoretical, as well as practical model of family business dynamics, incorporating the complexities of development over time. This book is a must-read to gain a deep understanding of families in business from the key perspectives of familiy, business, and ownership. Their use of case examples effectively illustrate the practical application and relevance of theory. To sum it up, it's steak AND sizzle!
An excellent book for anyone interested in family businesses.......1999-08-14
I think this is one of the best books available on family businesses! I found it insightful and informative. I think anyone interested in the subject should read this book. I strongly disagree with the review that describes this book as "too theoretical." I found it immensly practical.
Amazon.com
Many Americans have resisted the notion that their country is an imperial power. The idea seems to contradict the values of the Republic and its Founding Fathers. But in Empire of Debt, prominent financial analysts Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin argue passionately that not only is the United States an empire, but it is also one whose end is coming soon. Bonner and Wiggin are the brains behind www.dailyreckoning.com, an iconoclastic and irreverent market advisory service that has long raised concerns about American indebtedness and warned of a looming dollar crisis. In Empire of Debt, a sequel to their earlier doom-and-gloom book Financial Reckoning Day, they elaborate on their argument that the U.S. economy is about to implode.
Bonner and Wiggin enumerate a long list of chronic ailments that imperil the American financial system--a massive trade deficit, soaring personal and government debt, a housing bubble, runaway military expenditures. These problems "hardly disturb the sleep of the imperial race," the authors write. "[But] all empires must pass away." Bonner and Wiggin argue that American imperial delusions are similar to the fantasies that fueled the dot-com market mania. They recommend readers buy gold as insurance in the event of a financial crisis. Empire of Debt flounders when discussing how America indebted itself; the authors blame the Federal Reserve Board's low interest rates but gloss over the fact that rates were slashed because the U.S. teetered on the brink of deflation in 2002 and 2003 (a topic they give more attention to in Financial Reckoning Day). As hardcore free-marketeers, Bonner and Wiggin also seem to long for the pre-welfare days of the 1920s but forget how that period's policies led to the Great Depression. That said, Empire of Debt contains many revelations that will open eyes. --Alex Roslin
Book Description
In Empire of Debt, maverick financial writers Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin provide you with the first in-depth look at how the American character has shifted to accommodate its new imperial role; how we have abandoned the private virtues of personal liberty, economic freedom, and fiscal restraint; and how the government has gained control of public life and the economy.
Customer Reviews:
Interesting read but no viable solutions offered.......2007-10-10
Empire of Debt points out many flaws in our current economic system. We have learned to live off the "kindness of foreigners", who provide all our products in return for pieces of paper. We live off and the fruit of earlier generations while passing on the bills onto future generations. The abuse of credit to juice up current consumption would surprise even David Hume who lamented about the modern (18th century), practice of passing on the today's debts to future generations as compared to the ancient Romans. Hume would be surprised by our audacity to not only pass on the debt of wars but of mere day to day operating expenses.
Many of these points are hammered home repetitiously and to people that uninitiated in the economics of the problem it may come as a surprise. If foreigners do not fund our lifestyle by loaning us money we can not live the way we do. And, since we are letting the dollar fall in value these foreigners are getting a queasy feeling as their investments in the USA become smaller and smaller, especially, the Saudis with their $800B future generation fund looking like a stack of Polish war bonds. Something will give; it's only a question of time.
There are no good solutions here. Bonner and Wiggin make the case for gold and seem to indicate a gold standard would be at least part of a solution. They also point out that only 58,000 metric tons of gold have been mined since 1971, which they contrast with the out of control monetary growth in the US. Of course, the amount of goods in circulation has also gone up explosively since 1971 and if the money supply, which would equal the gold supply if it were indeed linked to gold, would result in severe DEFLATION. More goods chasing less money. This is what happened in the 1890s and 1900s which resulted in the agitation for Silver to increase the money supply. Western states owing money to eastern bankers in a period of falling prices could not service their debts, etc. Later the discovery of the cyanide process allowed gold to be extracted from South African mines causing the gold supply to increase greatly resulting in inflationary effects. This points out why gold is no panacea; there is no intrinsic connection between the amount of gold in the world and world production of goods and services. There must be a balance between the two for price stability.
The authors point out the poor history of fiat paper money systems, like our own. The fact is that it much easier to move a zero on a ledger sheet or print more currency than to exercise discipline in the growth of the money supply or to exercise spending restraint. Now, with money growth not only the providence of the Fed but of financial institutions the system is more out of control than ever.
For people that think the autopilot of the gold system is the answer to prevent the abuses described in this book, the record of the depression era should give pause. True, managing the world trade through a gold system would put limits on grasping politicians and incompetent financiers. However, this system has been gamed before to the detriment of all. The fine clockwork of the gold system requires everyone to play by the rules. If a country is exporting a lot gold flows into their country, money supply grows prices rise and the system naturally balances as foreigners stop buying at the higher prices. In the 1920s the USA had such a situation and by resorting to open market operations the Fed was able to "sterilize" these inflows, screwing our trading partners. Today, we could guess who would be sterilizing their inflows, the Chinese. The gold standard also shackled all the gold standard countries together so when the depression hit it knocked out all countries that were on gold. Silver standard countries like China were not affected immediately.
This was a fun read with a little bit or ranting at certain figures and some bizarre takes on history. Yes WWII had to be fought maybe not WWI and the Civil War was necessary to prevent the country from falling into chaos. There are no clear solutions out of this mess.
Caustic & Straightforward, But..........2007-07-31
Darkly humourous--unlike assessments written at dailyreckoning.com; however, I disagree with the authors' view on the Second World War. I don't think that America, "empire" or not, Depression or not, would have sat back and allowed Germany and Japan to conquer the world.
It was Germany's ambition to conquer America, but to leave that to the next generation. It was Japan's ambition to conquer the world, too, which deliberately gave the West the false impression that by establishing its Diet (parliament) that it had embraced democracy. We would have been left with a world run by Germany and Japan that possibly would have resulted in the end of everything once each acquired nuclear weapons and used them to challenge each other in a showdown for world dominance.
I agree with their point too that America has ceded more and more states'rights to the federal government. To this can be added the "line-item veto" (since ruled unconstitutional) and a desire to give "fast-track" authority to the president to negotiate under GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) thereby bypassing Congress.
Buy Gold!.......2007-07-24
The book is exactly about what the title says it is:
1. The United States has become an empire. And like all the empires that have come before (Page 49 has a list of them), there will come a time, sooner or later, when it will no longer be an empire.
2. Unlike empires of the past, which were financed by resources (tribute, human, mineral, etc.) of the places colonized or taken over by the empire, the United States empire is financed by debt. The US government is over $36 trillion in debt, largely to foreign debtors, while individual Americans are burdened with consumer debt such as credit cards and mortgages--without any sign of letting up.
The first section of the book talks about empires, describing those of Genghis Khan, Ancient Greece and Rome, and Austria-Hungary. According to the authors, the United States first started to become an empire with Theodore Roosevelt and his "Rough Riders". But it was really Woodrow Wilson's adventures in Mexico, and later World War I, that really established the idea of the United States as an empire. From then on, whether it was FDR in World War II, Johnson's Vietnam...all the way to Reagan's Cold War and Bush's Iraq...we have spent much blood and treasure trying to make the world a better place for democracy, or fight commies, or terrorism, or whatever. All financed by increasing debt, of course. Domestic welfare programs such as FDR's New Deal, Johnson's Great Society, etc. also got financed similarly. At some point all this debt must be paid, and it would not be a pretty thing if all our debtors, one day, demanded all their money at once!
Meanwhile, while America (and Americans) are running up all this debt, the rest of the world (read China and India primarily, but Russia and Brazil as well) has been actually making things, building up their factories and selling products, all for lower wages than America (and the developed West, for that matter). Inflation is also eating into the (meager) savings of Americans.
The last section discusses investing in stocks, real estate, etc. Most Americans invest to get something for nothing, and end up getting poor results. The smarter way to invest, according to the authors, is to buy stock in companies that the investor, using what they call "insider" information--private information and personal experience. (Unfortunately, the authors don't seem to clearly distinguish this from "insider trading", which is illegal!)
The theme running through the book is "Buy Gold". This comes to the forefront in the last few pages, where the authors compare gold to paper currency. While governments can print as much paper money as they think they need, it's harder for them to do that with gold. Gold will always be worth something, while paper currency can (and has) lost value.
This is a good read. I especially liked the history of all of the empires in the past, and how the United States compares to them. What will happen at the end of the American Empire is (necessarily) an open question, but we can all be prepared.....
Bill Bonner king of "doom & gloom".......2007-07-07
His solution is to buy gold/silver & dig
yourself a hole in a ground to live in.
Show Your Love for Your Kin and Yourself -- Read Empire of Debt.......2007-07-01
Through your life, few books are worth trading your time to read them for your time expressing your love for others, making others laugh and helping your neighbors.
Empire of Debt is one of those books you should read.
Like most books, the story does not begin until several chapters ahead and like most books, Empire of Debt suffers from the wrong chapter sequence.
Here's a better chapter sequence to get you to the story faster:
Part 1
[should read -- sets the stage of how the U.S. overthrew the American Republic]
The Road to Hell (5)
The Revolution of 1913 and the Great Depression (6)
How Empires Work (3)
Part 2
[optional read -- yet helpful if you do not know this history]
Nixon's the One (8)
Reagan's Legacy (9)
The U.S.'s (America's) Glorious Empire of Debt (10)
Still Turning Japanese (14)
Part 3
[must read -- the real story]
Modern Imperial Finance (11)
Welcome to Squanderville (13)
The Wall Street Fandango (15)
Something Wicked This Way Comes (12)
Subversive Investing (16)
Part 4
[optional read -- coda commentary about past empires]
Empires of Dirt (2)
Dead Men Talking (1)
Slouching Toward Empire (Introduction)
Part 5
[optional read -- for history buffs only]
MacNamara's War (7)
As We Go Marching (2)
Book Description
RIDE THE WEALTH CYCLE
with stronger investments, stable assets, and sure-and steady cash flow—for life.
Maybe you own your home, have a few stocks or CDs, or contribute to a 401(k) plan that you barely pay attention to. According to Loral Langemeier, the bestselling author of The Millionaire Maker, that’s more than you need to tap into the wealth-building power of direct asset allocation. What’s that? It’s a proven system of financial strategies that the smartest (and richest) investors have been using for years. You don’t need tons of money. You don’t need special insider knowledge. All you need is The Millionaire Maker’s Guide to Wealth Cycle Investing.
Think of this as your personal investment toolkit-packed with step-by-step instructions, worksheets to organize your assets, and sure-fire secrets to making money. You'll learn the fastest ways to supercharge your portfolio and make the most of whatever assets you have. You'll discover how to build cash in your own Wealth Account, scout out new opportunities, and invest in a wide range of asset classes through direct asset allocation. With financial expert Loral Langemeier as your guide, you can
- Take control of your assets-and generate new income
- Profit from nontraditional investments
- Use real estate and private equity to accelerate wealth
- Balance your risks with even bigger rewards
- Earn more money than you ever thought possible
Believe it or not, anyone can take advantage of these powerful investment strategies. All you need is the desire to succeed, the basic building blocks of wealth, and The Millionaire Maker's Guide to Wealth Cycle Investment. No matter what your age, no matter what your income, you hold the power in your hands.
Customer Reviews:
Definetely Helped me to Design My Business!.......2007-10-22
The main message Loral's gets across with this book is that you can't become a Millionaire on your own. She stresses the fact you have to build a team around you of people with different areas of expertise.
I highly recommend this bookand Loral's work and she shows you the nitty gritty of what you need to do to become wealthy.
Practical for those who dare break their habbits.......2007-05-06
It was very exiting to read alle the storyies about ordinary people changing their wildest dreams into reality, and a bit of an eyeopener to read how the wealthy do. I am very pleased, hat I bought her second book too, "Wealth Cycle Investement...".
The Millionaire Maker's Guide to Wealth Cycle Investing.......2007-03-11
The book is easy reading and thats about it. It gives you some examples how a few people invested but nothing in depth. It's more of a teaser to go to there website and pay for additional services. frankly, I would just read there website(s) and you will get just as much information as the book gave.
Great book, inspiring way to think..........2007-02-24
Ultimately with all self help,
unless you are a leader and self directed, you will be on the endless
guru quest to have someone else take the responsibility to solve your problems for you. While they happily drain you of all your cash, she is one such guru.
A proven tactic to realizing much higher gains than more conservative approaches........2007-02-09
Author Loral Langemeir has developed a proven strategy that works, and has used it to help thousands increase their wealth, so her The Millionaire Maker's Guide to Wealth Cycle Investing comes from the voice of tested experiences, not theory alone. Libraries strong in economic self-help titles will find it an excellent survey of how to get the most out of high-return investing strategies - and how to understand and control the risks. The key here is to investing using methods the wealthy use: it's a proven tactic to realizing much higher gains than more conservative approaches.
Diane C. Donovan
California Bookwatch
Books:
- Calculus
- Can Japan Compete?
- Career Development Interventions in the 21st Century, Second Edition
- Caring for Your Baby and Young Child, Revised Edition: Birth to Age 5 (Shelov, Caring for your Baby and Young Child, Birth to Age 5)
- CCTV for Security Professionals
- Challenge of Third World Development, The (4th Edition)
- Children Just Like Me
- Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
- Corporate Warriors (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs)
- e-Business: Organizational and Technical Foundations
Books Index
Books Home
Recommended Books
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- Jaded Tasks: Brass Plates, Black Ops & Big Oil-The Blood Politics of George Bush & Co.
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- DK Space Encyclopedia
- History: Fiction or Science
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- Traditional Construction Patterns: Design and Detail Rules-of-Thumb
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General
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Systems Thinking, Second Edition: Managing Chaos and Complexity: A Platform for Designing Business Architecture
Systems Thinking Basics: From Concepts to Causal Loops
An Introduction to General Systems Thinking (Silver Anniversary Edition)
The Manager's Pocket Guide to Systems Thinking and Learning
Dynamic Modeling for Business Management: An Introduction (Modeling Dynamic Systems)
