History: Fiction or Science? (Chronology, No. 1)

Book Description

Recorded history is a finely-woven magic fabric of intricate lies about events predating the sixteenth century. There is not a single piece of evidence that can be reliably and independently traced back earlier than the eleventh century. This book details events that are substantiated by hard facts and logic, and validated by new astronomical research and statistical analysis of ancient sources.

Customer Reviews:

Has history been tampered with?.......2007-10-23

Watch Video Here: http://www.amazon.com/review/RAZQNMXM4M9CL Has history been tampered with? Yes, it has! Did events and eras such as the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, the Roman Empire , the Dark Ages, and the Renaissance, actually occur within a very different chronology from what we've been told? Yes, they certainly did!

The history of humankind is both drastically shorter and dramatically different than generally presumed.

Why is it so? On one hand, it was usual custom to justify the claims to title and land by age and ancestry, and on the other the court historians knew only too well how to please their masters. The so called universal classic world history is a pack of intricate lies for all events prior to the 16th century. World history as we learn it today was entirely fabricated in the 16th-18th centuries. It's likely that nobody told you before, but

there is not a single piece of firm written evidence or artefact that is reliably and independently dated prior to the 11th century.

Naturally, after what you've learned in school and university, you will not easily believe that the classical history of ancient Rome, Greece, Asia, Egypt, China, Japan, India, etc., is manifestly false.

You will point accusing finger to the pyramids in Egypt, to the Coliseum in Rome and Great Wall of China etc., and claim, aren't they really ancient, thousands of years ancient? Well, there is no valid scientific proof that they are older than 1000 years!

The oldest original written document that can be reliably dated belongs to the 11th century!

New research asserts that Homo sapiens invented writing (including hieroglyphics) only 1000 years ago. Once invented, writing skills were immediately and irreversibly put to the use of ruling powers and science.

The consensual chronology we live with was essentially crafted in the 16th century by the Jesuits.

The world history was compiled from contradictory mix of innumerable copies of ancient Latin and Greek manuscripts and other irrefutable proofs delivered by late mediaeval astronomers that were cemented by the authority of writings of the Church Fathers.

Early in life, we learn about ancient history. Children love the magical lessons of history - they are like fairy tales. Teachers recite breathtaking stories; very soon We learn by heart the names and deeds of brave warriors, wise philosophers, fabulous pharaohs, cunning high priests and greedy scribes.

We learn of gigantic pyramids and sinister castles, kings and queens, dukes and barons, powerful heroes and beautiful ladies, emaciated saints and low-life traitors.

Ancient history is based documents, manuscripts, printed books, paintings, monuments and artefacts - called primary sources.

The problem is that neither these ancient documents, nor events described therein can be irrefutably dated, moreover they contradict each other for the most part.

When a school textbook tells us that Genghis Khan in year X or Alexander in year Y, have each conquered half of the world, it means only that it is so said in some of the written sources.

There are no answers to simple questions:

When were these primary sources written?

Where and by whom were these sources found?

It is wrongly presumed that ancient and medieval chronicles, written by Genghis Khan's or Alexander the Great contemporaries and eyewitnesses, are readily available. Actually, only sources written hundreds or even thousands of years after the events are there, compiled mostly in the 16th 18th centuries, or even later.

As a rule, these sources suffered considerable multiple manipulations, falsifications and distortions by editing. At the same time,

innumerable originals of ancient documents under various pretexts were destroyed in Europe under various pretexts.

The names of persons and geographical sites often changed meaning and location during the course of the centuries.

Geographical locations became clearly defined on maps only with the advent of printing.

This made possible the circulation of identical copies of the same map for purposes of the military, navigation, education and governance tasks.

Historians from Oxford say: "hey, everybody knows that Julius Caesar lived in the first century B.C.

`Julius Caesar' statement is only a point of view as

there is simply no irrefutable documentary proof that Julius Caesar or any other great name of antiquity ever existed.

Better than that - extremely rare sources that can be reliably dated back to the 10th-14th centuries A D, do not show the polished picture of classical history.

They show a picture both contradictory and confusing.

All methods of dating of ancient sources and artefacts are erroneous:

Radio-carbon C14 method produces dating with exactitude of plus minus 1500 years, therefore it is too crude for dating of events in historical timeframe!

The Almagest tractate, which lies as corner stone contemporary chronology, compiled in the 2nd century A D by Ptolemy, the founding father of astronomy, contains astronomical data of 9th to 16th century!

The Bronze Age,that has supposedly began 5000 years ago. Bronze is made of 90% copper and 10% tin, but the technology for tin extraction dates back to 14th century A D!.

All eclipses contained in manuscripts, like Thucydides one, relating 'ancient' events have exclusively medieval dating. All horoscopes cut in stone or painted in Egyptian temples, like Dendera have exclusively early medieval dating solutions.

Not quite what you have learned in school? Open your eyes, and, you will find sufficient proof to reach step by step the inevitable conclusion that the classical chronology is false and therefore, that the history of ancient and medieval world universally accepted today, is also false. Have a fresh outlook on everything said or printed about "ancient" and "enigmatic" Roman, Greek and Egyptian, medieval as well as all other "lost and found" civilizations.

Antiquity and Dark Ages are phantoms invented in the 16th 18th and polished in 19th 20thcenturies. Human civilization is in fact barely 1000 years old!

This book will change your perception of History forever!
What if Ancient Rome, Greece and Egypt were invented during Renaissance?
What if The Old Testament was a rendition of events of the Middle Ages?
What if Jesus Christ was born in 1053 and crucified in 1086 AD?
Sounds Unbelievable?
Not after you've read "History: Fiction or Science?" by Anatoly Fomenko, the genius mathematician.
Armed with astronomy and computers Anatoly Fomenko turns History into a rocket science.

Calculations are only as good as your numbers.......2007-08-03

Yes, we can all agree that mainstream history is nearly 100% BS due to politics, economics, ego, problems with dating techniques, and various conspiracies. Agreed. But, I've been researching the distinct possibility that human history (in terms of civilizations) are much more ancient than we've been told, so coming across this book was very interesting to me. I wondered how Fomenko could be wrong (if at all) because he is very persuasive in his presentations. Then it dawned on me. If at previous times in prehistory, due to the various catastrophies that are well documented (comets, asteroids, planetary disruptions, plasma discharge, pole reversals, etc) the Earth was in a different position in relation to the sun, different tilt on its axis, different orbit, different rotation (in terms of velocity and DIRECTION), and the continents were in different positions, then would this not cause the ancients to see the sky (constellations) differently? In other words, is Fomenko making erronious assumptions about the physics of the Earth in pre-history, which then corrupt his data with regards to dating the relevant astrology? The last event to seriously disrupt our planet occured roughly 3500 years ago, according to other good researchers, so is it possible Fomenko has been confused by this? The vastly different physics of our planet in the not so distant past may explain this confusion, which is not to say the "mainstream" version of history is correct; on the contrary. I am not an expert in these fields, but wanted to see if this idea could spark discussion.

Pants on fire?.......2007-07-19

Will people ever read before spamming? Yes, Jesuits could not rewrite world history alone, they had help. Anyway, Dr Prof Acad A.Fomenko does not point to jesuits as the driving force of world wide history manipulation in published volumes 1,2,3;, actually he barely mentions the poor devils. Check it with 'Search inside' feature, please. China is rarely mentioned either, in fact, Dr Fomenko is completely eurocentric. Right, his theory contradicts all mainstream schools of history, because in their actual state they are all built on blatantly erroneus chronology. You don't need a mysterious cabal (conspiracy) to falsify history, the falsification is its modus operandi. It is inherent to history(ians) to falsify (distort) events, as it is inherent to humans to boast as it is inherent to power (authority) to legimize itself by referrring to glorious past made to its own order. Dr Prof Fomenko and team have identified scores of instances of such manipulation in Russian, European, etc.. history, and delivered valid statistical proof thereof. His own 'reconstruction' is completely another story. Forget c14 as a valid method of dating. W.Libby has initially discovered a brilliant method of INDEPENDENT dating. Too bad, c14 method has become a joke after a forced marrige with dendrochronology with consensual chronological scale inbuilt. Radiocarbon method can't stand blind tests, but is so very productive as a rubberstamp.

Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed. .......2007-04-09

There is no doubt that history as most know it is a sham, & institution's version of History both University & Church is fradulent & inaccurate. Everything was established with an agenda, The real "Dark Ages" are now when we have access to incredible amounts of information past authorities & more important 'common folk' didn't have but our institutions & educators are slow to evolve because of what has ignorantly & arrogantly been taught for too long. This is on many subjects not just Chronology.

For anyone to question "Why would a Mathematician have anything credible to say of History?" The answer is from Dr. Fomenko's preface in the book: "It would be worthwhile to remind the reader that in the XVI-XVII century Chronology was considered to be a subdivision of Mathematics." These volumes could possibly be some of the most important works to date & should be read by everyone with an interest in History, especially professors & educators who have a duty to the public. I have read both books & must say that 'Chronology 1' has some very eye opening & revolutionary information. Even if these volumes are part true the implications are profound & opens the doors to further investigations & questions which must be done. I speak several different lanquages & must say the logic Dr. Fomenko uses with "inflection" of words & words being read from left to right in one region & right to left in another then written backwards, the removal of vowels & get down to basics of words, or different cities & locations having the same name etc. is correct. Vowel usage has always been optional & varied, actually complicating linquistics & study. The first thing one has to understand is that words never had a fixed spelling in history like we do now, the spelling of words was mutable & regional, as well as names & titles of people were vast, varied & changed, NOTHING WAS FIXED or understood linear. Matters of Life & Death as well as financial profiteering yesterday & today were & are made with ignorant, illogical & conspiratorial views of history & reality, it's time people get closer to the Truth & society collectively grow up.

Very Interesting.......2007-03-07

It is a good proposal and I believe it will mature into something even better in the future. I think it deserves to be read.

Barbarians to Bureaucrats: Corporate Life Cycle Strategies

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Barbarians to Bureaucrats Corporate Life Cycle Strategies
Making sense of corporate growth
Help in understanding declining organizations
From Start Ups to Behemoths

Barbarians to Bureaucrats: Corporate Life Cycle Strategies
Lawrence M. Miller
Manufacturer: Ballantine Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0449905268
Release Date: 1990-01-14

Book Description

"One day your sluggish company will taken to the sound of a beating drum and the sight of a competitor approaching at ramming speed. On deck will be a jut-jawed Barbarian....He will hardly blink as his target is ripped asunder, sending Aristocrats, Bureaucrats and their unfortunate shipmates to their corporate death....So goes Mr. Miller's tale, from which we can all profit." The Wall Street Journal

Barbarians to Bureaucrats presents a brilliant new solution to a stubborn old business problem: how to halt a company's descent into wasteful, stifling bureaucracy. Lawrence M. Miller, a management consultant for such corporate giants as Xerox and 3M, argues that corporations, like civilizations, have a natural life cycle, and that by identifying the stage your company is in, and the leaders associated with it, you can avert decline and continue to thrive.

Every company begins with the compelling new vision of a Prophet and the aggressive leadership of an iron-willed Barbarian, who implements the Prophet's ideas. New techniques and expansions are pushed through by the Builder and the Explorer, but the growth spawned by these managers can easily stagnate when the Administrator sacrifices innovation to order, and the Bureaucrat imposes tight control. And just as in civilizations, the rule of the Aristocrat, out of touch with those who do the real work, invites rebellion -- from employees, customers, and stockholders. It will take the Synergist, a business leader who balances creativity with order, to restore vitality and insure future growth.

Executives from major corporations have already put the powerful insights of Barbarians to Bureaucrats into practice to regenerate their own companies. Now you can use this brilliant, lucid, and dazzlingly original book to put your company -- and your career -- back on track.

Customer Reviews:

I have never received my order.......2005-10-17

Please resend as I have never received my order and you have not reposnded to my previous request.

Barbarians to Bureaucrats Corporate Life Cycle Strategies.......2001-08-22

Excellent book. With so many "here's what's wrong with your company" books available, this is one of the best. Not only does the author suggest what's wrong...i.e., which part of the life cycle is your company in, he tells you how to do something about it.

If I'd only been able to read just one book, I am glad I choose this one.

Making sense of corporate growth.......2001-07-25

It's not necessarily that as a company grows from the garage into the boardroom that bad things happen . . . it's that some things are inevitable and are a function of growth.

This book sumarizes the multiple facets involved in such growth and allows the reader to compare the growth cycle of companies at varying stages. It's impact on people, org behavior, culture, awareness and other areas that the "garage shop" does not need to consider at early stages. It's a key read and assessment as companies find themselves in transition from a heavily entrepreneurial spirit to a more entrenched corporate being and notes many of the patterns such growth requires. Read between the lines and you may find companies who are currently faltering because of a lack of transition mindset to allow them to sustain managed growth or the new "size." Overall, it's a great academic read.

Help in understanding declining organizations.......2000-12-10

By comparing the lifecycles of corporations to those of civilizations, this book helps to explain how all sorts of organizations, not just corporations, can become "sick" through bureaucracy and poor leadership. This book helped me to understand why there is so much institutional opposition to correcting even localized corruption and dissolution in a large, bureaucratic GOVERNMENT institution. It helped save my sanity. I with the author would write a similar book dealing with governmental organizations.

Another book which may help if you are trying to "fight city hall" is Stanley Milgram's Obedience to Authority.

From Start Ups to Behemoths.......2000-10-23

An interesting book about the different life cycles a company goes through as it grows, matures and declines. This book may help you understand that giant corporation you are trying to partner with while trying to avoid being squished by them.

The Cycle of Leadership: How Great Leaders Teach Their Companies to Win

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Misses the mark
Sensible advice, but repetitive, repetitive, repetitive
Robert Knowling?
Nothing new
A New "Business Classic"

The Cycle of Leadership: How Great Leaders Teach Their Companies to Win
Noel M. Tichy
Manufacturer: Collins
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Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0066620570
Release Date: 2004-08-10

Book Description

In The Leadership Engine, Noel Tichy showed how great companies strive to create leaders at all levels of the organization, and how those leaders actively develop future generations of leaders.

In this new book, he takes the theme further, showing how great companies and their leaders develop their business knowledge into ⳥achable points of view,⟳pend a great portion of their time giving their learnings to others, sharing best practices, and how they in turn learn and receive business ideas/knowledge from the employees they are teaching.

Calling this exchange a virtuous teaching cycle, Professor Tichy shows how business builders from Jack Welch at GE to Joe Liemandt at Trilogy create organizations that foster this knowledge exchange and how their efforts result in smarter, more agile companies, and winning results. Some of these ideas were showcased in Tichy's recent Harvard Business Review article entitled, ⍯ Ordinary Boot Camp."

Using examples from GE, Ford, Dell, Southwest Airlines and many others, Tichy presents and analyzes these principles in action and shows how managers can begin to transform their own businesses into teaching organizations and, consequently, better–performing companies

Customer Reviews:

Misses the mark.......2006-08-02

Tichy described the "interactive teaching/learning process" as a form of "synergy" whereby "1+1=3" (10). Synergy is defined as the "process of mutual exploration and exchange during which both the teacher and the learner become smarter" (10). Though he uses this term to illustrate the teaching and learning process, he esteemed the four "E's" when choosing potential leaders. The criteria included the following: "Energy" (coping ability for change), "Energize" (ability to excite/inspire), "Edge" (making tough calls), and "Execute" (always delivering, never disappointing) (129). To better support his argument for interactive synergy, Tichy should have included another "E" category-- Educate (the ability to teach, mentor, and guide). Tichy, himself, framed teaching as "opening people's eyes and minds...teaching new ways to see the world and pointing them to new goals...teaching them to teach their own knowledge and teach others" (74). His statement was void of an element in interactive/circulatory teaching.

Tichy referred to Roger Enrico's process of teaching ten "rising leaders" for a consecutive number of long hour days (11)." After a period of teaching, Enrico would send his students home to "work on projects" and brought them back for "follow-up sessions" (11). This illustration was a poor choice on Tichy's part because it has nothing to do with "synergy" and does not appear to align with his definition of a "teaching organization." Not only does Tichy use irrelevant examples and definitions, but he also seemed unclear about the process of the "Virtuous Teaching Cycle." In his introductory statement, Tichy said, "Virtuous Teaching Cycles are dynamic, interactive processes in which everyone teaches, everyone learns and everyone gets smarter, everyday" (xxiv). Yet his next statement about the leadership process does not incorporate this philosophy: "No institution can be great unless it has a great leader at the top who develops leaders at all levels of the organization" (xxiv).

People who described themselves as "always paranoid" or "never let anyone best him" would seem to be less likely to participate in an interactive process of teaching as depicted by Tichy. The book falls short in conveying a true "interactive teaching process." Not only were there no tangible examples of companies using this approach, but also the main ideas of "greatness" and "winning" represent selfish gain and have nothing to do with having a "teachable point of view." The truth is that without Christ as the teacher leading by example, no one can possibly participate in a process that separates one's pride and power for the humbling experience of learning in an interactive process with a subordinate. Jesus said it clearly: "You call Me Teacher and Lord, and you say well, for so I am. If I then, your Lord and Teacher, have washed your feet, you also ought to wash one another's feet. For I have given you an example, that you should do as I have done to you. Most assuredly, I say to you, a servant is not greater than his master; nor is he who is sent greater than he who sent him" (John 13:13-16 NKJV).

Sensible advice, but repetitive, repetitive, repetitive.......2004-10-16

While I will never dispute the premise that great leaders teach, mentor and learn, it doesn't have to be repeated over and over until I get it. The hero of this book, and that is really the only way to describe it, is Jack Welch, former head of GE. There is a lot of ink used to laud Welch and what he did at GE. While I don't dispute that Welch deserves to be acknowledged as a great leader, Tichy comes very close to crossing the line between praising and deifying him.
The basic theme of the book is the dynamics of teaching and learning within a business environment. This includes all levels, from the lowliest greeters to the CEO and board members. It starts with the leader's Teachable Point Of View or TPOV. This is basically the leader's view of the company direction and how well it is communicated to the people underneath. Without question, this is a valuable point in the success of any organization, assuming that the TPOV is reasonable and the leader is capable of accepting feedback. Or, to put it another way, is the leader capable of learning from underlings? While good leaders must teach and do it well, they must also learn even better. For even the best teachers can be rendered ineffectual if the material they are trying to impart is valueless. In the modern business world, if you don't learn and adapt, you die.
Another focus is on the Virtuous Teaching Cycle or VTC, which is about leaders teaching leaders. This is of course sensible; any leader should constantly be training several potential replacements. The problem with this is twofold. The first is that there can be only one leader, so if more than one potential leader is being groomed, it is necessary to have an unambiguous selection mechanism in place. Succession struggles have doomed many countries and organizations. Secondly, this can lead to the successor suffering from the same weaknesses that the leader does, which is why some of the most successful leaders were outsiders, brought in to provide a necessary fresh perspective.
There are two points of criticism. The first is the repetition. Some of the stories are told several times, even to the point of distraction. The other is that education is a complex task and recent revelations in the corporate world demonstrate that there are leaders that are not only incompetent, but are even criminal. I would have preferred reading more about how learning is done in these dysfunctional situations.
With the pace of life and business changing so fast, companies must learn faster than they produce. While I agree with most of the points in this book, there is a tendency of the author to ramble and repeat, which I found distracting.

Robert Knowling?.......2003-03-26

I just read the intro to this book by Robert Knowling. As far as I can tell Robert Knowling was booted out of Covad having delivered dismal results. He is listed as CEO of Simbion, which according to Hoovers has 1-5 employees and $50-$100K in revenues. He is even featured on the cover. Am I missing something?

Nothing new.......2002-12-25

I was somewhat disappointed in this book despite its endorsement by one of my business school classmates. Professor Tichy discusses already well known principles of leadership within the context of what is promoted as a "new" approach. Only a few individuals and companies are profiled and are used repeatedly throughout the book. The examples cited fit awkwardly into the message that is being presented. The title of the book attributes greatness to the individuals profiled based on only one attribute--a belief in teaching and learning. This seems such a narrow focus on which to base such accolades.

A New "Business Classic".......2002-11-27

Those who are familiar with my reviews of other business books already know that on several dozen occasions, I have strongly recommended The Leadership Engine (1997) which Tichy wrote with Eli Cohen and Nancy Cardwell. He teams up with her again in this book, expanding and enriching his concept of leadership development at all levels throughout any organization, regardless of its size or nature. Hence the importance of what Tichy calls a "Virtuous Teaching Cycle": Everybody teaches and everybody learns; all practices, processes, and values promotion teaching; all teaching is interactive to generate the effective exchange of knowledge; thereby, maximum use is made of everyone's skills and talents to ensure all-level alignment for smart and rapid response to needs, problems, opportunities, etc. Tichy asserts (and I agree) that hypertransformation (in established organizations) and hypergrowth (in start-ups) are essential to business success. The challenge in established organizations is to overcome what Jim O'Toole characterizes as "the ideology of comfort and the tyranny of custom." For start-ups, the challenge is to achieve appropriate scale while ensuring that new employees are brought on line and up to speed ASAP. In ten chapters, and with prevision as well as eloquence, Tichy explains how various organizations (notably GE) have met those and other challenges.

Unlike other authors who address many of the same issues, Tichy also includes a substantial Handbook (pages 285-394) which consists of ten Sections: The Teaching Organization, The Hand You have Been Dealt, Building Your Teachable Point of View, Pulling It All Together, Building a Team Timetable Point of View, Architecting the Leadership Pipeline, Scaling the Teaching Organization, Building Teaching into the DNA, Global Citizenship, and finally, Start the Journey. In the Handbook, Tichy explains provides decision-makers with with just about everything their need to know to design, implement, and then strengthen their own Teaching Organization, one within which the Virtuous Teaching Cycle sustains leadership development at all levels.

In his Introduction to the Handbook, Tichy quotes a brief statement from Thomas Stewart's most recent book, The Wealth of Knowledge:

"The knowledge economy stands on three pillars. The first: Knowledge has become what we buy, sell, and do. It is the most important factor of production. The second pillar is a mate, a corollary to the first: Knowledge assets -- that is, intellectual capital -- have become more important to companies than financial and physical assets. The third pillar is this: To prosper in this new economy and exploit these newly vital assets, we need new vocabularies, new management techniques, and new strategies. On these three pillars rest all the new economy's laws and its profits."

Tichy includes this brief statement because it is directly relevant to his own objectives in The Cycle of Leadership but also because, unless and until an organizations has all three pillars (not one, not two but all three), it cannot survive major challenges which await them, many of which have yet to be revealed. That is to say, the Teaching Organization can only be built on the foundation they provide.

"Winning leaders are teachers, and winning organizations do encourage and reward teaching. But there is more to it than that. Winning organizations are explicitly designed to be Teaching Organizations, with business processes, organizational structures, and day-to-day operating mechanisms all built to promote teaching." However, Tichy doesn't stop there. More importantly, the teaching that takes place is a distinctive kind of teaching. It is interactive, two-way, even multi-way. Throughout the organization, `teachers' and `students' at all levels teach and learn from each other, and their interactions create a Virtuous Teaching Cycle that keeps generating more learning, more teaching, and the creation of new knowledge."

Those who share my high regard for this book are urged to check out Peter M. Senge's The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990) and The Dance of Change: The Challenges of Sustaining Momentum in Learning Organizations (1999), William Isaacs' Dialogue and the Art of Thinking Together: A Pioneering Approach to Communicating in Business and in Life (1999), Carla O'Dell's If Only We Knew What We Know: The Transfer of Internal Knowledge and Best Practice (1998), and Thomas H. Davenport and Laurence Prusak's Working Knowledge: How Organizations Manage What They Know (1997).

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Four-Dimensional Leadership: The Individual, The Life Cycle, The Organization, The Community,
William P. Fisher , and Christopher C. Muller
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
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Binding: Paperback

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Making informed decisions on when to move (and when not to)...

A savvy strategic approach to managing business cycles

Well-Rounded and Useful

Tomorrow Will Not Be Like Today

Management talent is doing the right thing at the right time and to the right degree

The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage
Peter Navarro
Manufacturer: Wharton School Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0131494201

Book Description

"In The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro provides a useful primer on business cycle risks and opportunities. Recognizing that business success depends most of all on human capital, he makes the crucial observation that the trough of a recession is the best time to find good people and the most important time to focus on retaining them. This and other insights about investment, production, and marketing give today's executives a useful checklist for building and maintaining competitive advantage."

-Michael Milken, Chairman, The Milken Institute

"Navarro's conclusions should be an integral part of any management strategy playbook. Timing is indeed everything, and this book shows you how to master it for a successful business."

-Bruce Karatz, Chairman and CEO, KB Home

"The business cycle bedevils all companies, yet few take it into account when plotting strategy. Peter Navarro provides a powerful set of tools, insights, and examples that will help every executive master the all-important art of timing."

-Nicholas G. Carr, Author of Does IT Matter?

"What surprised me the most about this wonderful `Big Ideas' book was not how incisive, useful, and far-ranging its strategic prescriptions are but rather how much fun I actually had reading it."

-Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Co-Founder of Economy.com

"The overriding approach to real estate success used to be `location, location, location,' but it is an absolute fact that `timing, timing, timing' is the ultimate driver behind maximizing return on investment. Peter Navarro illustrates that point with compelling examples of some of the best companies that have proactively navigated the business cycle as well as those that have faltered. The Well-Timed Strategy is an insightful look into the critical concept of knowing not just how to make a move, but more importantly, when."

-Richard S. Ziman, Chairman and CEO, Arden Realty, Inc.

"Don't miss this guide to surviving-and thriving-during topsy-turvy industry fluctuations."

-Kirkus Reports

"This book is a virtual tour de force of strategies and tactics being used by some of best `Master Cyclist' business executives in the world. Using a wealth of real-world examples, Navarro clearly explains the dos and don'ts of timing important executive decisions to the business cycle-so much so that after reading this book, you'll view the business cycle more as a strategic partner rather than an economic adversary."

-Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute

"A path-breaking book full of useful war stories from the front lines. As Lance Armstrong would advise, you don't win a race in the flats-but in the mountains, by managing the ascents and descents better than your competition. Navarro shows us how the same is true for how businesses navigate the ups and downs of the business cycle."

-Stephan G. Richter, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, theGlobalist.com

"Peter Navarro is that rare academic whose expertise spans both strategic management and technical economics-and writes like a dream. Here, he clearly explains how an understanding of the economics of business cycles gives managers a huge advantage in strategic planning while offering many compelling examples of how companies have succeeded or failed according to their reading of the impact of macroeconomics on their industries."

-Peter Passell, Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute and Editor of the Milken Institute Review

"Peter Navarro has written a remarkable, path-breaking book about strategic management of the business cycle that is destined to be a classic in both corporate boardrooms and business schools. Using a rich array of real world examples, he shows why corporate leaders must always be proactive, often counter-cyclical, and ever nimble."

-Bernard Baumohl, Executive Director of the Economic Outlook Group and Author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators

Most companies ignore one of their best opportunities for honing competitive advantage: proactively managing the business cycle and broader macroeconomic turbulence. In The Well-Timed Strategy, Peter Navarro reveals why the business cycle is an even more powerful P&L driver than you may realize, and demonstrates how it can be profitably managed.

Navarro distills a set of clear and compelling strategies and tactics for managing economic upswings and downswings, oil price spikes, currency crises, trade wars, and other severe macroeconomic shocks. Navarro's "Master Cyclist" management principles address everything from inventory, production, and supply chains to marketing, pricing, acquisitions, and long-term capital investment. Navarro presents examples and case studies from around the globe, ranging from high tech to heavy industry, from Broadcom, Micron, and Cemex to Paccar and Xilinx, from Chinese entrepreneurs to large multinationals.

Clear, concise, and exceptionally readable, The Well-Timed Strategy makes complex business cycle strategy and tactics easy to understand-and even easier to act upon.

Customer Reviews:

Making informed decisions on when to move (and when not to)..........2006-12-07

There are plenty of business books that tell you *what* to do and *how* to do it, but few which talk about *when*. That's the key difference in Peter Navarro's The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage. By understanding the timing of business cycles, a business person can make moves that position them well for the coming up- or down-tick in the economy.

Contents: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive; Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures; The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High; The Art of "Cherry Picking" and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resource Manager; "Macromanaging" Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain; Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons; Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables; Proactive Profiting from Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks; When You Can't Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!; Surviving - and Prospering from - the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease; The Master Cyclist's Favorite Forecasting Tools; Concluding Thoughts; The Master Cyclist Project's Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team; A Business Cycle Primer; Notes; Index

Navarro argues that a close examination of the business cycle (becoming a Master Cyclist) can help you make the right choices for your business in terms of when to do certain things. Based on economic forecasting tools (covered near the end), it's possible to have a better than average view into where the economy is headed, whether it's a recession or an expansion. These indicators, when followed, almost appear to make you look like a bit of a contrarian. If a booming economy has signs of an oncoming recession, the cyclist will take actions like dramatically cutting back on capital expenditures. Most other businesses will still be spending like there's no tomorrow. But when the economy turns, these spending companies are caught with large debt payments with high interest. The cyclist, however, is sitting on a pile of cash at a time when cash flow is king. Continuing to follow the indicators can show when the recession is starting to ease. The spending companies are all cut to the bone at that point, while the cyclist is able to start expansion with little competition and cut-rate pricing. Same with advertising... Spending on advertising at the peak of the recession can often be more effective as everyone else has cut their ad budgets. Fewer voices, more visibility. Then when the economy turns, guess who has mind share heading into the recovery?

I think the points made here are very valid and bear consideration. I will admit to thinking on more than one occasion that "hindsight is 20-20" when reading some of his examples. Granted, many of the bone-headed moves *were* just plain ill-advised and stupid. But at the time, you don't have the luxury of knowing how the story turns out. Also, many of the company demises outlined here are presented in such a way that it makes it look as if there was a single reason for the collapse. In reality, company failures are normally a combination of things, not just a single failure to do (or not do) something. In any case, the point remains that there are economic signals available to executives that are more often right than wrong. Ignoring them because you have a hunch or you've been reading your own press releases doesn't usually turn out to your advantage.

This is an interesting book to add to your business bookshelf, and it can definitely help you chart your course in these strange economic times...

A savvy strategic approach to managing business cycles.......2006-10-24

This handy, concise compendium offers managers a series of tips on managing through changing business cycles, and illustrates its advice with intriguing actual cases. The book originated in the five-year "Master Cyclist Project," launched to teach business-cycle management to MBA students at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California in Irvine. Author Peter Navarro's lively evidence shows managers who take the right steps but at the wrong times and, thus, invariably meet ill fortune. He also shows managers taking steps that conventional wisdom regards as foolish (e.g., upping advertising during recessions) and meeting with invariable success. It may seem just a bit too neat. But, even if you don't agree with every detail of this analysis, the book's cases are strong and its underlying principles are sound. Ride the business cycle or it will ride you. Just as a contrarian investor buys in bad times and sells when times are soaring, so the counter-cyclical manager invests during bad times and spends cautiously during the good. We recommend this book as a useful antidote to groupthink.

Well-Rounded and Useful.......2006-07-23

"The Well-Timed Strategy" can be applied to you, your company, and your investing. This is a very informative, practical, and useful book that deserves a lot more attention. There's a lot of variety that's relevant and each chapter can be read in the order you choose. The index is very useful to go straight to the topic or concept, also.

Many specific examples and companies are noted, such as Xilinx, Nucor, United Airlines, Intel, Lowe, Soho China, Dupont, Labor Ready, South West Airlines, FedEx, IBM, Cemex from Mexico, the United Airlines Contract, and many more.

One of the many useful points in "The Well-Timed Strategy" is hiring through the the different economic cycles. Tapping the best available talent and also securing the best deal. Here is a paraphrase from page 73: A "Reactive Cyclist" keeps hiring employees at premium wages into the late stages of economic expansion. When the recession emerges they start massive layoffs which often leads to other employees leaving because of low morale. The Master Cyclist use a variety of means at this stage to avoid to pit-falls and also retain talent.

At the bottom of the recessionary trough the labor pool will be deepest and wage pressures least. This is the time to hire the most talented employees at bargain wages (Navarro, 73). By "Cherry Picking" this Master cyclist maintains a solid competitive advantage in getting a skilled and talented workforce and lower labor costs (Navarro, 73).

Spending throughout the cycles:
Be watchful of too much capital expansion during boom times. A concept referred to as "build the empire syndrome." This creates large cash flow needs. Revenue may fall. Cut back when a recessions seem imminent. The Master cyclist will engage in capital expenditures during a recession, to be ready for new innovation when the recovery begins (Navarro, 37).

A good detailing of diversification is covered. Once case study is IBM vs. Hewlett-Packard. IBM is diversifying into such areas as outsourcing, web hosting, and services, why HP remain in computer hardware.

There are many well-chosen quotes by known industry leaders, and they are edited to fit perfectly with the chapter and topic at hand, to augment the point Peter Navarro is making. (Even Robert Frost's "Road Not Taken" gets a plug.)

The constant array of natural and human-made events affect the cycle and influence what needs to be done and what is, actually done. The concept of "Chaos Theory," when a butterfly flaps its wings in China it causes a metaphorical typhoon half-way around the world. El Nino affects coffee and cocoa prices, Tsunamis in South East Asia cause increased demand for medicines to counter the resulting epidemics of cholera and typhoid. A massive earthquake in Taiwan drives up semi-conductor prices. "If it's raining in Brazil, buy Starbucks." The chicken restaurant 'El Pollo Loco' acted swiftly when they foresaw a drought in Australia and the simultaneous mad cow threat hit. They knew the price for beef would increase, followed by chicken, so secured fixed priced contracts before the price spikes (Page 176). Oil prices, Terrorism, disease, war, foreign government subsidies, and many other are listed.

"The Well-Times Strategy" is Well-rounded, useful book. The index is is excellent.

Tomorrow Will Not Be Like Today.......2006-03-07

I always enoy those shows on televiion where people are predicting the future. The overwhelming tendency is for the forecasters to predict that the future is going to continue about what it's doing now. If we're in a recession, they see nothing that looks like it's going to pull us out of the recession. If we're in a boom, the general consensus is that we are just starting a boom and that there's nothing that looks like it means the end of the boom.

Instead we have a lot of evidence that whatever is going on will change. Boom cycles, bust cycles happen. Most companies, it seems, ignore any idea at all of a long term trend. This quarter is down, fire people (really good for morale), cut back everything you can. This quarter is up, try to expand like crazy, making up for lost time -- just in time for the next down turn.

Dr. Navarro understands the business cycle and in this book explains the cycle that business follows with special attention to people, production, credit and so on.

Then there's a chapter on forecasting tools. Knowing what to do is a lot easier if you know what the future holds. Here the model shows weakness. There are a lot of stories about companies that guess right, or wrong about the future. Predicting the future however reminds me of the old saying: 'Predicting the future is easy, it's being right that's hard.'

Management talent is doing the right thing at the right time and to the right degree.......2006-03-03

I love this book. Being a contrarian by nature, I enjoy this way of examining the business cycle for the best strategic moves that often use moving AGAINST the obvious move of the trend. While this is often the correct move, it is oftentimes exceedingly difficult to see and even harder to time just right. Still, the rewards can be great when it can be pulled off.

The book draws on real life examples for the things that work and the things that did not work. The author has a concept of the Master Cyclist (meaning a master of the business cycle) versus a reactive cyclist who always seems to be getting into trouble by doing the wrong thing and too late. The old saying that one shouldn't confuse a bull market with management skill holds true here. It is understandable that people tend to stick with what they THINK made them successful until it is too late, but we shouldn't applaud them for it either.

Another issue about being a Master Cyclist and especially for those times when going against the trend of the majority, is that what the majority trend is tends to change. So, a successful method tends to breed copies, so the way to counter-punch also changes.

Peter Navarro uses the image of a bicycle wheel with the spokes dividing it into a six slice pie to present his points. The six slices the Master Cyclist must master are: Capital Expenditures, Acquisitions & Divestitures, Human Resources Management, Production & Inventory Control, Marketing & Pricing, and Risk Management.

Obviously, not all these topics matter in every situation or for every business. But the Master Cyclist understands which matter and when they matter. He knows when to acquire cash and lower debt. She knows when acquisitions, no matter how attractive strategically, are not worth the price. He knows when to add staff and cherry pick talent from the competition when the competition is shedding staff. She knows how to manage capacity and inventory to not get caught short as things take off and to knot let inventory build up that is not only eating up cash, but is becoming obsolete. She knows how to price for market share and profit and to not pretend they can set prices when they are really are price taking enterprise. And especially, he knows how to manage risk in the best way so that price swings in core commodities don't eat up profits, and when profits are at risks from exchange rates.

This is a very fine book and I recommend it for anyone interested in corporate strategy. It isn't just about doing the right thing, it is also about doing the right thing at the right time and to the right degree. Pulling that off more than once is evidence of real management talent. The only thing I would encourage you to do is to dig into the illustrative stories provided in the book to be sure you understand ALL the details. You know what is in the those pesky little facts....

Mastering the Challenges of Change: Strategies for Each Stage in Your Organization's Life Cycle

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Mastering the Challenges of Change: Strategies for Each Stage in Your Organization's Life Cycle
Leroy Thompson
Manufacturer: Amacom Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0814402186

The Second Cycle: Winning the War Against Bureaucracy

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How to survive the paradigm shift from the transaction-based business model to the knowledge-based business model
Intriguing Call-to-Action to Revolutionize Change for Mature Companies Resting on Their Laurels
Stopping the slide to bureaucratic-bound incompetence...
Innovate To Win
Fight Tomorrow's Bloat

The Second Cycle: Winning the War Against Bureaucracy
Lars Kolind
Manufacturer: Wharton School Publishing
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Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0131736299

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How to survive the paradigm shift from the transaction-based business model to the knowledge-based business model.......2007-06-18

The title refers to what Lars Kolind characterizes as an organizational re-design process by which to "enable and sustain innovation and growth. The starting point is the change from conventional mass production (for example, a metal parts factory) to knowledge work (for example, investment banking) in general and customization in particular. It argues that the conventional hierarchical and functional organization is long overdue as an adequate structure for organizations that perform knowledge work. [The re-design design process] highlights four fundamental characteristics of organizations that are essential if they want to exchange an upcoming death cycle [i.e. the first cycle] with a second or third lifecycle." Kolind suggests that such an organizational re-design process is needed because most (if not all) organizations are involved in (for lack of a better term) a paradigm shift from being transaction-based to knowledge-based.

Kolind cites the rapidly increasing amount of available knowledge that becomes available, the competitive advantages that result from providing innovative and radically different solutions to problems, consumer perceptions that focus more on differentiated products and services ("Price-performance ratios are no longer the only criterion for purchase; environmental, emotional, ethical, and esthetical aspects play a greater role."), and one-time costs (e.g. R&D and marketing) become more important than unit manufacturing and transportation costs. These and other factors create all manner of challenges to which organizations must now respond if they are to adapt to changing environments while continuously applying knowledge in new ways to create innovations in products, processes, and service. In other words, free themselves from the "death cycle" by becoming what Koland characterizes as a "collaborative organization" at all levels and in all areas of their external as well as internal operations.

Of course, that requires managers to see themselves as - and function as - stewards whose fiduciary obligations include the welfare of their associates whom they view as full partners. That also requires a different mindset in terms how everyone involved values what they do and how they do it. More specifically, in terms of what Kolind characterizes as the "meaning" of such initiatives. How does they benefit others? And how can we increase and improve those benefits?

I was especially interested in how Kolind illustrates this important point, that if an organization is to become a true partner with all of its stakeholders, and especially with customers, there needs to be a meaning behind each action. Whatever a given organization's "meaning" may be, Roland suggests that it serves several significant functions: it provides overall guidelines for everything done, it determines the focus and direction of innovation, it is the "turning point" for all internal and external communications, and it determines the relevance of organizational and other changes within the organization and its partner network. Without meaning, the first lifecycle becomes the last.

Many readers will especially appreciate the material provided in Chapter 7, in which Kolind provides "some hands-on tools that you can use to refresh your organization and get it out of the life-cycle trap." Throughout the book, after specifying the "what," he focuses most of his attention on the "how" and "why" of responding to the aforementioned paradigm shift.
Hence the importance of what each reader can select for her or his own "toolbox." For example, which tools are among the most important and what are possible applications for them? See Table 7-1 on Page 98. How to measure the progress of efforts to "break out" from or avoid various first cycle traps? See Table 7-3 on Pages 100-101. What is a Consensus Crash Program (CCCP) and how can it help to create consensus about ideas, values, and goals? See Pages 118-120. All this (and much more) is provided in Chapter 7 and its wealth of information and counsel is representative of what the other chapters also offer.

As he indicates in the final chapter, Kolind believes that there is a "great untapped potential in revitalizing mature organizations within the public and private sectors and within civil society." Why does this potential remain untapped? Kolind suggests three reasons First, they tend to think that they already make the most of their potential; "that is, they think they are doing the right things." Also, if they somehow realize that they have a problem (or an opportunity) to improve, they lack the tools to carry through on the necessary change, "particularly because the transformation they need is different from what they know." Finally, mature organizations become increasingly blinded by their current model. Jim O'Toole would add another reason: mature organizations frequently become hostage to what he characterizes as "the ideology of comfort and the tyranny of custom."

Hence the importance of Lars Kolind's book in which he describes, with rigor and eloquence, "a new social construction, a new framework for doing business in the knowledge economy."

Those who share my high regard for this book are urged to check out Also Enterprise Architecture As Strategy co-authored by Jeanne W. Ross, Peter Weill, and David Robertson as well as Henry Chesbrough's Open Innovation, Vince Thompson's Ignited, Oren Harari's Break from the Pack, Ram Charan's Know How, Dean Spitzer's Transforming Performance Management, and Richard Ogle's Smart World.

Intriguing Call-to-Action to Revolutionize Change for Mature Companies Resting on Their Laurels.......2007-01-11

Not too surprisingly, the perpetual dilemma faced by mature companies is stagnation. Author Lars Kolind, a former CEO of a Danish-based hearing aid company, lends his particular insight into what causes this ultimately devastating situation and why many organizations discover this stagnation far too late for their management teams to do anything about it. He paints a typical scenario in which a company develops a core business that becomes a seemingly dependable cash cow. At a certain point of perceived stability, the leadership seeks out opportunities to acquire other businesses with the surplus cash. This myopic direction may mean short-term profitability and productivity gains from the additional revenue streams and inevitable resizing, but it does so under the presumption of an unchanging market. The author also points out how some publicly traded companies pay out dividends or buy back shares in lieu of unavailable acquisition candidates.

Kolind calls for nothing less than an organizational revolution in defining his concept of a second cycle in the book. Using the company he guided as CEO, Oticon, as an exemplary model, he calls for a new framework of thinking in a knowledge-based economy by: (1) finding meaning behind a company's business objectives; (2) having employees become co-owners; (3) developing a collaborative organization; and (4) moving from power-based management to values-based leadership. The most illuminating chapter is his stepwise identification of a comprehensive toolbox he deems as necessary for a successful transition. There are seven tools identified:

-- (1) Break the Cycle (BTC) Index to assess if an organization is infected by the lifecycle disease
-- (2) Mental Model Mapper (MMM) to analyze current mental models and come up with alternative ones
-- (3) Value Identification Process (VIP) to help identify an organization's values and turn them into reality in practice
-- (4) Consensus Creation Crash Process (CCCP) to build consensus about the values and their implementation
-- (5) Knowledge-based People Management (KPM) to optimize staff resources
-- (6) Innovation Powerhouse (IP) to convert the workplace into an environment that values new ideas
-- (7) Change Process Tools (CPT) to move an entire organization from conventional to innovative habits

He sees much of the problem with mature organizations lies in an inability to detect that there is a problem. The path of apparent success is familiar to most in the corporate world - companies start to grow in headcount, additional management layers are structured into the organization, more departments are added, procedures turn into standards that become more rigid over time, the business model becomes fossilized and unable to adapt to changing market conditions. What's more, because of the focus on short-term profitability and shareholder value, the management team generally remains adamant in maintaining the business model as is and not facing up to evolving customer demands. Kolind provides an intriguing primer for those mature companies unwilling to rest on their laurels for a future unknown.

Stopping the slide to bureaucratic-bound incompetence..........2006-12-10

I've always been fascinated about how leading-edge companies lose their focus and turn into lumbering dinosaurs. Lars Kolind tackles that subject in The Second Cycle: Winning the War Against Bureaucracy. The information he covers is practical and geared to get you back on track (or keep you from going down that road in the first place).

Contents: The First Cycle - Why Success Breeds Failure; The Second Cycle - A New Paradigm; Meaning; Partnership; From Hierarchy To Collaboration; Leadership; The Toolbox; Three Live Case Studies; Conclusion; How Oticon Entered The Second Cycle; Index

Kolind was responsible for taking Oticon, a market-leading hearing aid manufacturer which had stumbled badly, and turning them back around to lead the industry once again. He uses the Oticon experience as a real-life case study about what happens to put a company into a bureaucracy-bound death spiral. When companies are successful, they tend to get protective and attached to the product and processes that got them there. Arrogance and waste also enter the picture, and the company view of the industry becomes very self-centered. Success breeds the "we know best" attitude, and pretty soon the reality of the marketplace does not match the reality the company thinks it sees. This starts the downhill cycle, and it doesn't take long to destroy what was built up over many years or decades. Kolind makes the case that a new form of innovation is needed to return the company to its creative roots and cut through the ingrained bureaucracy that takes hold over time. The "toolbox" chapter looks at a number of indexes and processes he used to determine where the company is at in the first cycle, as well as the steps to take to drop the "same old, same old" patterns and replace them with ones that foster the innovation and collaboration needed to compete in today's market.

The book is grounded in practicality, not lofty sounding platitudes. The tools he created and used are not part of some "master system", but ideas and concepts you can take and adapt for your own specific situation. Because it's not a "step 1-2-3" system, each tool doesn't necessarily build on the one prior to it. But it's not very difficult to figure out which one(s) would be more applicable to a specific situation. There's no magic wand, and it's definitely easier to halt a slide when it first starts, instead of once it gets to rock-bottom. But diligent application of Kolind's ideas can make a forceful impact on your company's future.

Innovate To Win.......2006-07-29

"The Second Cycle: Winning the War Against Bureaucracy," has a lot of variety and its title containing the term "bureaucracy" may be misleading to some. "Innovation" is in the title also, and much more prominent on the cover, and the book.

Chapters:

1. The first cycle: Why Success Breeds Failure
2. The Second Cycle: A New Paradign
3. Meaning
4. Partnership
5. From Hierarchy to Collaboration
6. Leadership
7. The Toolbox
8. Three Live Case Studies
9. Conclusion

Appendix: how Oticon entered The Second Cycle.

Each chapter has sub-chapters that reinforce the chapter topic.

As a contemporary business book, it's for companies of all sizes and every industry. Author Lars Kolind provides numerous case studies, tables, some theory, and figures, for the work and business model of today where "most of those straightforward and well-defined jobs are gone" (Kolind, 67). These jobs have been relocated to countries with cheap labor. Robots and machines are now performing many of the tasks of what these low-cost workers are doing. This book also has a self-assessment profile and a questionnaire. Items detailed are the recruitment process, individual development of the employee, manager development, and org. development. Where is the best place for the innovative mentality to be nurtured and promoted today? Education: Kolind aptly notes it's the schools, and it starts with Primary Education. Focusing on individuality, finding strengths, creativity, and yes, "fun."

Enter the "Knowledge Worker." This worker's job isn't narrowly defined, tasks are less controlled by management, individuality, creativity, and flexibility is a must. And, for this knowledge based worker, we need the KBM: Knowledge Based Management. People- management is not always knowledge management based. Kolind also provides a case study on labor unions (although they're declining) and notes union importance in our knowledge-based society. As the worker becomes an independent contractor we are again reminded that:

"Employers are capitalists that look upon workers purely as production factor. Employers will use any means to maximize profit. They will hire and fire employees according to short-term need, and they will strive to pay minimum amounts per working hour" (Kolind, 161). And yes, the workers have their interests, also. It's a two-way relationship, but often not symbiotic in today's global world, that is flattening before us.

Kolind gives specific examples of changing organization styles starting with the old Line Staff Organization style of the U.S. auto industry in the early 20th Century. From heuristic bureaucratic theorist Max Weber, line staff separates employees and specialists in a hierarchical relationship. The benefits of line are: constant, high-quality output, minimal training cost, etc. Obviously in some industries this is most optimum. For other industries, it isn't. The 'Innovation and Mass Customization' style is for R&D, customer service, business development, and tech, today.

One concept in the Meaning Chapter was the "Acid Test." You ask, "what if our organization didn't exist." Another concept is the "Obituary Test." What would be written in your organization's obituary if: a) your customers wrote it? b) competitors wrote it? c) what would this industry be like if your org. died? d) has your company made a real difference to the people it affects?

Kolind notes the common perception that upward cycles inevitably lead to downward cycles not only in business but in civilization in general. The rise and fall of the Roman Empire, Soviet Union, British Car Industry, Enron, and other industries. There are reasons for these declines and subsequent extinction.

Large, older, established, and successful organizations that are declining often can show favorable financial statements because they downsize and do Mergers & Acquisitions. But when organizations are in this mind-set they can be maintaining their position instead of questioning it.

Informative, well-written, great read.

Fight Tomorrow's Bloat.......2006-06-29

Many have wondered how once nimble and creative organizations transform themselves into complacent, bloated bureaucracies.

The bigger question is why managers remain blind to the deterioration long after it is obvious to many.

Lars Kolind, the driver of Oticon's turn-around that lead to its assuming leadership in the world's hearing aid market, offers four thoughts to avoid bloat in this well-written book. He:

1. Analyzes the mechanism of the conventional corporate lifecycle.
2. Proposes four pillars for a new platform of innovation and growth that he calls the second cycle: Meaning, Partnership, Collaboration and Leadership.
3. Offers a grab bag of seven tools he used to diagnose your organization and establish a new foundation for it.
4. Illustrates his points with three case studies.

The book is readable, actionable, specific and actionable. You cannot ask for much more from a book that retails for less than $18.00.

Pursuing the Full Kingdom Potential of Your Congregation (TCP Leadership Series)

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Assisting churches and denominations
Congregations In Search of Their Potential
Must read for congregational change agents

Pursuing the Full Kingdom Potential of Your Congregation (TCP Leadership Series)
George W. Bullard Jr.
Manufacturer: Chalice Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0827229844

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Assisting churches and denominations.......2007-07-25

The work that George Bullard has done is bold, creative, and extremely practical. This book will assist churches and denominations to develop a strategic spiritual journey to reach their full Kingdom potential.

Congregations In Search of Their Potential.......2007-01-07

Do you think your congregation is really living up to the potential God wishes it to have? If not, this book is for you!
Bullard uses insights from his 30+ years of experience in helping congregations seek and reach their potential to show a needed conterpoint to the various movements sweeping the church. This isn't health or growth. This is seeking potential.
Many different types of congregations exist today. We don't need to stereotype them, but to show functional models. Bullard does this well. He also includes coaching insights and congregational, and personal reflection questions in each chapter.
Some of his most useful materials come in his life cycle of the church and in his materials on the ministry types emphasized during some recent time periods in history.
Pursuing the Kingdom Potential of Your Congregation should be read by all congregations entering vacancy or interim periods. It should also be read by any congregation, pastor, or layperson contemplating making the church a better witness to the Gospel of Jesus Christ.

Must read for congregational change agents.......2006-05-12

I read George's book and must say that if you are working to move a church or congregation towards change, this book needs to be on your shelf. The examples are rich, the theory is deep, and the total content is beyond anything you've seen before. More than a repackaging of the same old "church growth" ideas, this book encourages church and congregational leaders to think beyond the same ole same old. I highly reccomend this book.

The Research University Presidency in the Late Twentieth Century: A Life Cycle/Case History Approach (ACE/Praeger Series on Higher Education)

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The Research University Presidency in the Late Twentieth Century: A Life Cycle/Case History Approach (ACE/Praeger Series on Higher Education)
H. Keith H. Brodie , and Leslie Banner
Manufacturer: Praeger Publishers
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Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0275985601

Book Description

This book is unusual in the literature of higher education leadership studies for several reasons: It uses detailed case histories collected from the presidents of prestigious peer universities rather than a broad survey of a mixed group of administrators and institution types. The presidents speak frankly on the record, rather than anonymously. The analysis is based on a psychological and a strategic, or problem-solving, approach rather than a mathematical and theoretical model. A study of the academic presidency, this book will provide readers with a better understanding of this complex leadership position by identifying patterns in the university presidency and addressing questions of culture, governance, and stress.

Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior

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Highly recommended
A compelling examination of the long wave...

Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior
Brian J. L. Berry
Manufacturer: The Johns Hopkins University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0801840368

Book Description

Is economic development a "random walk" or do underlying rhythms and cycles make it possible to anticipate long-term trends? Many social scientists have rejected the notion of long-term periodicity in economic trends. Now, after extensive analysis of economic data, distinguished scholar Brian J. L. Berry has found new evidence for the reliability-- and the value-- of "long-wave" theory.

In "Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Bahavior", Berry argues that the synchronization of long waves and growth cycles is "more than a figment of some overactive imagination". Presenting his findings graphically, he argues that there is persuasive evidence of the existence of "deterministic chaos". Applying his analysis of rates of change to the economic phenomena of prices (Kondratiev cycles) and growth (Kuznets cycles), he discovers that pairs of 25-year growth cycles are embedded within 55-year long waves. As a result, Berry concludes, two different kinds of growth cycles-- one inflationary and the other deflationary-- form a complementary pattern of alternating crises with stagflation and depression. Berry also explores the "shifting sand" of cyclical phenomena in the stock market, voting behavior, the incidence of wars, the rise and fall of great powers, and mass psychologies. While avoiding dogmatic conclusions, he offers a provocative discussion of the long-wave context of social phenomena.

As he examines the American economy in long-wave context, Berry optimistically asserts that the "bust" is not inevitable. Technological advances in information transfer enable leaders and organizations to anticipate and alleviate the adverse effects of economic cycles. "Like it or not", he writes, "our lives appear to be embedded in a higher order of complexity: collectively, we are a societal organism that displays self-regulating fluctuations around a path of growth."

Customer Reviews:

Highly recommended.......2001-03-02

The topic of this book is the economic cycle called the long wave or Kondratiev cycle. The Russian economist Kondratiev did not discover these cycles, but he was the first to study them in detail. Long waves may be responsible for various long term trends: the slow down in productivity growth and wages after 1973, the "Reagan revolution", Toynbee's cycles of War and Peace, stock cycles (my focus) and others. This is the reason why people study them. The idea that long waves are major factors in these trends (or that they are even relevant at all) is controversial. Berry's book represents a modern day treatment of this topic.

I bought this book when I was researching the Kondratiev cycle as a possible explanation for stock market cycles (see my book Stock Cycles for more information). Berry presents an excellent overview of the longwaves literature in a single moderately-priced volume, and it is an excellent place to start a serious study of long waves. What I really liked about the book was the strongly empirical flavor where historical inflation and GDP data were smoothed and plotted in various ways that really "bring the cycles out". The focus is on letting the data "tell their own story", which was most refreshing in my opinion.

A compelling examination of the long wave..........1999-03-19

Berry examines the factors associated with the long wave (Kondratiev Wave) and its sub-wave cousin the Kuznets Cycle as they affect the growth of city-building and overall economic growth and decline in the U.S. since the beginning of the republic.

According to Berry, the "stagflation peak" of 1981 will eventually give way to a recession/depression trough sometime between 2006-12. Contrary to the otherworldly optimism and manic expectations of Wall Street and the American public at large, Berry expects a deflationary cycle to begin at any time (March 1998), resulting in mass restructuring and dislocation that will require most of the next decade to resolve.

Following the trough around 2010, however, Berry expects the K-Wave and Kuznets cycles to resume their growth period, which is expected to rise into the growth period peak in the early 2030s.

In the context of A. Gary Shilling's "Deflation...", one would be wise to seriously consider reallocating