History: Fiction or Science? (Chronology, No. 1)

Book Description

Recorded history is a finely-woven magic fabric of intricate lies about events predating the sixteenth century. There is not a single piece of evidence that can be reliably and independently traced back earlier than the eleventh century. This book details events that are substantiated by hard facts and logic, and validated by new astronomical research and statistical analysis of ancient sources.

Customer Reviews:

Has history been tampered with?.......2007-10-23

Watch Video Here: http://www.amazon.com/review/RAZQNMXM4M9CL Has history been tampered with? Yes, it has! Did events and eras such as the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, the Roman Empire , the Dark Ages, and the Renaissance, actually occur within a very different chronology from what we've been told? Yes, they certainly did!

The history of humankind is both drastically shorter and dramatically different than generally presumed.

Why is it so? On one hand, it was usual custom to justify the claims to title and land by age and ancestry, and on the other the court historians knew only too well how to please their masters. The so called universal classic world history is a pack of intricate lies for all events prior to the 16th century. World history as we learn it today was entirely fabricated in the 16th-18th centuries. It's likely that nobody told you before, but

there is not a single piece of firm written evidence or artefact that is reliably and independently dated prior to the 11th century.

Naturally, after what you've learned in school and university, you will not easily believe that the classical history of ancient Rome, Greece, Asia, Egypt, China, Japan, India, etc., is manifestly false.

You will point accusing finger to the pyramids in Egypt, to the Coliseum in Rome and Great Wall of China etc., and claim, aren't they really ancient, thousands of years ancient? Well, there is no valid scientific proof that they are older than 1000 years!

The oldest original written document that can be reliably dated belongs to the 11th century!

New research asserts that Homo sapiens invented writing (including hieroglyphics) only 1000 years ago. Once invented, writing skills were immediately and irreversibly put to the use of ruling powers and science.

The consensual chronology we live with was essentially crafted in the 16th century by the Jesuits.

The world history was compiled from contradictory mix of innumerable copies of ancient Latin and Greek manuscripts and other irrefutable proofs delivered by late mediaeval astronomers that were cemented by the authority of writings of the Church Fathers.

Early in life, we learn about ancient history. Children love the magical lessons of history - they are like fairy tales. Teachers recite breathtaking stories; very soon We learn by heart the names and deeds of brave warriors, wise philosophers, fabulous pharaohs, cunning high priests and greedy scribes.

We learn of gigantic pyramids and sinister castles, kings and queens, dukes and barons, powerful heroes and beautiful ladies, emaciated saints and low-life traitors.

Ancient history is based documents, manuscripts, printed books, paintings, monuments and artefacts - called primary sources.

The problem is that neither these ancient documents, nor events described therein can be irrefutably dated, moreover they contradict each other for the most part.

When a school textbook tells us that Genghis Khan in year X or Alexander in year Y, have each conquered half of the world, it means only that it is so said in some of the written sources.

There are no answers to simple questions:

When were these primary sources written?

Where and by whom were these sources found?

It is wrongly presumed that ancient and medieval chronicles, written by Genghis Khan's or Alexander the Great contemporaries and eyewitnesses, are readily available. Actually, only sources written hundreds or even thousands of years after the events are there, compiled mostly in the 16th 18th centuries, or even later.

As a rule, these sources suffered considerable multiple manipulations, falsifications and distortions by editing. At the same time,

innumerable originals of ancient documents under various pretexts were destroyed in Europe under various pretexts.

The names of persons and geographical sites often changed meaning and location during the course of the centuries.

Geographical locations became clearly defined on maps only with the advent of printing.

This made possible the circulation of identical copies of the same map for purposes of the military, navigation, education and governance tasks.

Historians from Oxford say: "hey, everybody knows that Julius Caesar lived in the first century B.C.

`Julius Caesar' statement is only a point of view as

there is simply no irrefutable documentary proof that Julius Caesar or any other great name of antiquity ever existed.

Better than that - extremely rare sources that can be reliably dated back to the 10th-14th centuries A D, do not show the polished picture of classical history.

They show a picture both contradictory and confusing.

All methods of dating of ancient sources and artefacts are erroneous:

Radio-carbon C14 method produces dating with exactitude of plus minus 1500 years, therefore it is too crude for dating of events in historical timeframe!

The Almagest tractate, which lies as corner stone contemporary chronology, compiled in the 2nd century A D by Ptolemy, the founding father of astronomy, contains astronomical data of 9th to 16th century!

The Bronze Age,that has supposedly began 5000 years ago. Bronze is made of 90% copper and 10% tin, but the technology for tin extraction dates back to 14th century A D!.

All eclipses contained in manuscripts, like Thucydides one, relating 'ancient' events have exclusively medieval dating. All horoscopes cut in stone or painted in Egyptian temples, like Dendera have exclusively early medieval dating solutions.

Not quite what you have learned in school? Open your eyes, and, you will find sufficient proof to reach step by step the inevitable conclusion that the classical chronology is false and therefore, that the history of ancient and medieval world universally accepted today, is also false. Have a fresh outlook on everything said or printed about "ancient" and "enigmatic" Roman, Greek and Egyptian, medieval as well as all other "lost and found" civilizations.

Antiquity and Dark Ages are phantoms invented in the 16th 18th and polished in 19th 20thcenturies. Human civilization is in fact barely 1000 years old!

This book will change your perception of History forever!
What if Ancient Rome, Greece and Egypt were invented during Renaissance?
What if The Old Testament was a rendition of events of the Middle Ages?
What if Jesus Christ was born in 1053 and crucified in 1086 AD?
Sounds Unbelievable?
Not after you've read "History: Fiction or Science?" by Anatoly Fomenko, the genius mathematician.
Armed with astronomy and computers Anatoly Fomenko turns History into a rocket science.

Calculations are only as good as your numbers.......2007-08-03

Yes, we can all agree that mainstream history is nearly 100% BS due to politics, economics, ego, problems with dating techniques, and various conspiracies. Agreed. But, I've been researching the distinct possibility that human history (in terms of civilizations) are much more ancient than we've been told, so coming across this book was very interesting to me. I wondered how Fomenko could be wrong (if at all) because he is very persuasive in his presentations. Then it dawned on me. If at previous times in prehistory, due to the various catastrophies that are well documented (comets, asteroids, planetary disruptions, plasma discharge, pole reversals, etc) the Earth was in a different position in relation to the sun, different tilt on its axis, different orbit, different rotation (in terms of velocity and DIRECTION), and the continents were in different positions, then would this not cause the ancients to see the sky (constellations) differently? In other words, is Fomenko making erronious assumptions about the physics of the Earth in pre-history, which then corrupt his data with regards to dating the relevant astrology? The last event to seriously disrupt our planet occured roughly 3500 years ago, according to other good researchers, so is it possible Fomenko has been confused by this? The vastly different physics of our planet in the not so distant past may explain this confusion, which is not to say the "mainstream" version of history is correct; on the contrary. I am not an expert in these fields, but wanted to see if this idea could spark discussion.

Pants on fire?.......2007-07-19

Will people ever read before spamming? Yes, Jesuits could not rewrite world history alone, they had help. Anyway, Dr Prof Acad A.Fomenko does not point to jesuits as the driving force of world wide history manipulation in published volumes 1,2,3;, actually he barely mentions the poor devils. Check it with 'Search inside' feature, please. China is rarely mentioned either, in fact, Dr Fomenko is completely eurocentric. Right, his theory contradicts all mainstream schools of history, because in their actual state they are all built on blatantly erroneus chronology. You don't need a mysterious cabal (conspiracy) to falsify history, the falsification is its modus operandi. It is inherent to history(ians) to falsify (distort) events, as it is inherent to humans to boast as it is inherent to power (authority) to legimize itself by referrring to glorious past made to its own order. Dr Prof Fomenko and team have identified scores of instances of such manipulation in Russian, European, etc.. history, and delivered valid statistical proof thereof. His own 'reconstruction' is completely another story. Forget c14 as a valid method of dating. W.Libby has initially discovered a brilliant method of INDEPENDENT dating. Too bad, c14 method has become a joke after a forced marrige with dendrochronology with consensual chronological scale inbuilt. Radiocarbon method can't stand blind tests, but is so very productive as a rubberstamp.

Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed. .......2007-04-09

There is no doubt that history as most know it is a sham, & institution's version of History both University & Church is fradulent & inaccurate. Everything was established with an agenda, The real "Dark Ages" are now when we have access to incredible amounts of information past authorities & more important 'common folk' didn't have but our institutions & educators are slow to evolve because of what has ignorantly & arrogantly been taught for too long. This is on many subjects not just Chronology.

For anyone to question "Why would a Mathematician have anything credible to say of History?" The answer is from Dr. Fomenko's preface in the book: "It would be worthwhile to remind the reader that in the XVI-XVII century Chronology was considered to be a subdivision of Mathematics." These volumes could possibly be some of the most important works to date & should be read by everyone with an interest in History, especially professors & educators who have a duty to the public. I have read both books & must say that 'Chronology 1' has some very eye opening & revolutionary information. Even if these volumes are part true the implications are profound & opens the doors to further investigations & questions which must be done. I speak several different lanquages & must say the logic Dr. Fomenko uses with "inflection" of words & words being read from left to right in one region & right to left in another then written backwards, the removal of vowels & get down to basics of words, or different cities & locations having the same name etc. is correct. Vowel usage has always been optional & varied, actually complicating linquistics & study. The first thing one has to understand is that words never had a fixed spelling in history like we do now, the spelling of words was mutable & regional, as well as names & titles of people were vast, varied & changed, NOTHING WAS FIXED or understood linear. Matters of Life & Death as well as financial profiteering yesterday & today were & are made with ignorant, illogical & conspiratorial views of history & reality, it's time people get closer to the Truth & society collectively grow up.

Very Interesting.......2007-03-07

It is a good proposal and I believe it will mature into something even better in the future. I think it deserves to be read.

The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times And Ideas Of The Great Economic Thinkers

Average customer rating:

I love this book
The Hobo Philosopher
This Classic Remains A Great Read!
Excellent compilation of short biographies of major economists
If I could give 10 stars I would

The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times And Ideas Of The Great Economic Thinkers
Robert L. Heilbroner
Manufacturer: Touchstone
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 068486214X

Book Description

The Worldly Philosophers is a bestselling classic that not only enables us to see more deeply into our history but helps us better understand our own times. In this seventh edition, Robert L. Heilbroner provides a new theme that connects thinkers as diverse as Adam Smith and Karl Marx. The theme is the common focus of their highly varied ideas -- namely, the search to understand how a capitalist society works. It is a focus never more needed than in this age of confusing economic headlines.

In a bold new concluding chapter entitled "The End of the Worldly Philosophy?" Heilbroner reminds us that the word "end" refers to both the purpose and limits of economics. This chapter conveys a concern that today's increasingly "scientific" economics may overlook fundamental social and political issues that are central to economics. Thus, unlike its predecessors, this new edition provides not just an indispensable illumination of our past but a call to action for our future.

Customer Reviews:

I love this book.......2007-10-15

Hi my mom purchased this book for me to read over the summer because it was a requirement for my 12th grade economics class. I really enjoyed reading this book more then I thought I would. Well that's all I have to say since my mom wanted me to write the comment because the book was for my usage.

The Hobo Philosopher.......2007-09-12

Whenever anyone says to me: I would like to learn something about economics, but where do I start - this is where you start. It is simple, easy, accurate, enjoyable and written for the lay reader. If you want to know more about economics this should be your first challenge. I guarantee after reading this book, you will know more and want to learn more. It could be the best introductory economics book ever. You can trust this guy.

This Classic Remains A Great Read!.......2007-09-10

I read this book 25 years ago, and recently reread parts of it. What a great book! Many of the most prominent living economists have justly heaped praise on Heilbroner's masterpiece. I can only add my hearty agreement.

Excellent compilation of short biographies of major economists.......2007-07-27

Heilbroner (H) does a very good job of providing the beginning ,novice reader in economic history and economic thought a very general summary of the major ideas of the economists he covers.He provides many interesting anecdotal comments,such as Keynes's interest in the size and shape of other people's hands,that are worth the price of purchasing the book.There are,however,some major analytic gaps in H's coverage.I will cover two of these below.

The first major omission occurs on p.68, in the chapter covering Adam Smith,on Smith's view of the role of government in a capitalist economy.Smith spends pp.734-741 of the Wealth of Nations[Modern Library(Cannan)edition] alerting the reader to the existence of a major undepletable,detrimental externality ,with major negative impacts, that resulted from the operation of the Invisible Hand (comparative advantage + division of labor + economic self interest).These negative impacts affect all aspects of the workers' lives-social,political,moral or ethical,intellectual,and martial.It is not just a case of "...the stultifying effect of mass production..." leading to a " ...decline in manly virtues."(Heilbroner,p.68).On pp.9-10 of the WN,Smith discussed the significant role of the worker in providing a continuing series of marginal improvements in the workings of the machinery used in the production process.All such contributions come to a complete stop if the externality problem is not dealt with because the result will be "...the almost complete corruption and degeneracy of the great body of the people".(Smith,p.734).The work force will not be able to make any contribution to the political decision making process of the country.Conflicts will break out both within the family and between families.Smith includes in his solution,which is that general education and religious instruction be provided for all even if they are unable to afford it,the requirement that the workers be taught the basics(reading,writing,and arithmetic) plus geometry and mechanics.The middle class is to also be taught philosophy and science.

The second omission in Heilbroner concerns the discussion of Keynes's GT fiscal policies on pp.274-279.H does not make it clear that Keynes is opposed to cutting income taxes in order to stimulate private consumption spending.Keynes's plan is to seperate the budget into a current and a capital account.The capital account will include borrowed funds(loan expenditure) to finance long run spending on infreastructure projects and public goods that will pay for themselves in the long run.The p.131 quote given by H about the government burying bank notes in abandoned mines for private enterprise to dig up from the GT is misleading.

If I could give 10 stars I would.......2007-07-03

Best book I've read in a long time! I have exams in economics, and usually I read some light "for fun" books during exam times in order to relax. This is one of those books, and I'm learning something!!! Excellent writer!

Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (Oxford Finance)

Average customer rating:

Nicely Prepared Intermediate-Level Treatment
intuitive introduction to option pricing
Hell, I should have rated it 5 stars!
Good introductory book
An FE Bible

Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (Oxford Finance)
Tomas Bjork
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0199271267

Book Description

The second edition of this popular introduction to the classical underpinnings of the mathematics behind finance continues to combine sound mathematical principles with economic applications. Concentrating on the probabilistic theory of continuous arbitrage pricing of financial derivatives, including stochastic optimal control theory and Merton's fund separation theory, the book is designed for graduate students and combines necessary mathematical background with a solid economic focus. It includes a solved example for every new technique presented, contains numerous exercises, and suggests further reading in each chapter. In this substantially extended new edition Bjork has added separate and complete chapters on measure theory, probability theory, Girsanov transformations, LIBOR and swap market models, and martingale representations, providing two full treatments of arbitrage pricing: the classical delta-hedging and the modern martingales. More advanced areas of study are clearly marked to help students and teachers use the book as it suits their needs.

Customer Reviews:

Nicely Prepared Intermediate-Level Treatment.......2005-05-06

The author has put together an excellent text that will take readers of an elementary text like Hull's "Options, Futures and Other Derivatives" to the next level. In the author's treatment, the power of stochastic calculus is brought to bear on the options pricing problem from the point of view of modern martingale theory, if not the complete mathematical rigor needed to establish all the results.

The text contains 26 chapters and 3 appendices. There is simply too much here to give a blow-by-blow account. So I'll try to hit the highlights.

The author gives intuitive definitions of some of the more heavy concepts from measure theory/Lebesgue integration, measure-theoretic probability theory and basic stochastic analysis. For the rigor, one need only look to the appendices, but the treatment is intuitive enough that can still follow along with only the occasionally glance to the back of the book.

Readers of Hull's text will find the first couple of chapters quite familiar, but starting in Chapter 4, stochastic integrals are (somewhat) formally introduced, along with the multi-dimensional version of Ito's change of variable rule. This is not overkill as the development of multi-factor term structure models later in the book benefits from this early development.
We note that these formulas are stated without proof, although they are motivated intuitively.

In the next chapter, stochastic differential equations are introduced and the Feynman-Kac representation is established as a nice application of Ito's rule. The chapter winds up with an intuitive treatment of Kolmogorov's forward & backward equations.

For the remainder of the first half of the text, readers of Hull will feel themselves in quite familiar territory, as the author develops the solution for the options pricing problem, studies the Greek letters and establishes parity using the now classical approach.

The second half of the text delves into martingale methods for mathematical finance. As a consequence, the sophistication level jumps considerably. The reader is well-advised to get the basic analytical toolkit in hand before delving too far into the second half of the book. I recommend Rudin's "Real and Complex Analysis" 3rd edition.

Heavy machinery is pulled in from functional analysis to establish the first and second fundamental theorems of mathematical finance. Without some basic understanding of Hilbert and Banach space theory, the reader will understand very little of this treatment.

The next highlight is the Girsanov Theorem. The author actual provides a proof in the scalar case, and presents (without proof) the Novikov condition to test when the Girsanov transformation is indeed a martingale (so the theorem holds). As a nice application, the Black-Scholes theory is revisted and re-established via these martingale results.

Another highlight is the study of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman model for stochastic control, along with a small catalogue of cases under which the HJB equations can be solved. As a nice application, Merton's mutual fund theorem is established.

The last several chapters of the book deal with martingale methods for term structure models. There is a nice survey and study of the 1-factor short rate models before loading up and doing the k-factor model framework of Heath-Jarrow-Morton.
The martingale setting makes for a very rigorous treatment.

The book ends with a really nice treatment of the Libor Market and Swap Market Models. Pure finance students may feel that the mathematics at the end unnecessarily overwhelms the intuition, but students of mathematical finance will appreciate the analytical treatment and may even feel inspired to implement their own LMM.

There are a ton of terrific exercises at the end of each chapter. The exercises really solidify the understanding of the presentation and they make great technical interview questions as well.

intuitive introduction to option pricing.......2004-11-10

I agree with several reviewers above that the book is written in a style very helpful for students to understand the material.

It doesn't contain a lot of small details of financial markets like Hull's book, but the approach is very systematic. The derivations of formula for Barrier options is a nice example, Hull only lists a set of formula. The focus is on the theory, not on the practice. (No numerical method in the book). Bjork's book is very valuable for a student with very good math skills but want to learn the reasoning style for option pricing. It is a quick and enjoyable read.

A huge plus side of the book is to describe strategy before writing down all the proofs. This helps greatly. It can be contrasted with Duffie's book "Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory", which is written like a dry math book (well, I have to admit that Duffie's book is not an intro book)

Only thing I can think of that can be improved is typo in the book, too many wrong formula, especially in the second half of the book, luckily enough, they are obviously wrong so that one can still understand the topics. I also find that using SEK and mentioning street name of Britain are amusing for a student in U.S.

Hell, I should have rated it 5 stars!.......2002-05-26

If you're going to be introduced to Derivatives pricing and Quantitative finance in continuous time, you need some basics in probability theory, an elementary introduction to stochastic calculus and you need "bjork". It tells you the equation and how to understand it.

It's the best source for a complete understanding of the basics of arbitrage free pricing in continuous time; whether it's in complete or incomplete markets.

The best feature of this book is how the author invariably provides an "intuitive interpretation or explanation" to convey critical concepts. {Things like market price of risk in the context of interest rate modelling, change of measure etc...}

Why I rated the book 4 instead of 5?
I will not forgive "Tomas bjork" not to have covered the Libor Market Model; it's "THE" model and therefore should be covered in great details by any book of this calibre. A new edition of this book with the libor market model is needed.
Having said that, the coverage he gives to the popular short rate models is worth every read!

Guy,
Msc Financial Engineering at ISMA Center, Reading - UK.

Good introductory book.......2002-05-25

It is a good book to read as an introduction to the field. The author is successful in conveying the intuition behind the models instead of striving for complete mathematical rigor. I recommend this book if you want to quickly get acquainted with derivatives pricing but are a bit afraid of the higher math seen in other books.

An FE Bible.......2001-11-08

The central text for IOE 552(financial Engineering I) at the University of Michigan. Halfway through the course and I really understand the application of Ito's Lemma and the Feynman-Kac stochastic representation theorem. This book has just the right mixture of narative story telling, and mathematical rigor. The derivations are accessible to those with a semester of advanced calculus and a semester of probability. Over and over, Bjork shows that the secret of success in Financial Engineering is "RAIL" which stands for the "Relentless Application of Ito's Lemma".

Thinking for a Change: Putting the TOC Thinking Processes to Use (St. Lucie Press/Apics Series on Constraints Management)

Average customer rating:

Nice thinking package
Theory of Constraints -- the practical book on the topic
This Book Will Help You!
A must for management and a should for anyone else.
Worth Way More Than [$]

Thinking for a Change: Putting the TOC Thinking Processes to Use (St. Lucie Press/Apics Series on Constraints Management)
Lisa J. Scheinkopf
Manufacturer: CRC
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1574441019

Book Description

The book begins with an overview of the constraint-based perspective on systems and organizations, commonly referred to as the theory of constraints or synchronous management. The first section will guide you through the fundamental principles and processes that are the backbone of the thinking process application tools. The second section contains the step-by-step guidelines for each of the five thinking process application tools. These tools utilize sufficient cause thinking and necessary condition thinking. Third section introduces two ways that two or more of the thinking process application tools are combined, providing robust processes for the understanding and communicating problems and solutions. This book can be used as a field guide to learning the five thinking process application tools as needed, based on their own particular issues. You will have a full understanding of the theory and practical application of these powerful processes, including when and when not to use each tool. The total benefit is not just to apply the thinking process, but to develop intuition and have the ability to combine logic and intuition in the same thinking process.

Customer Reviews:

Nice thinking package.......2007-06-06

Edward De Bono had the wonderful insight of bringing together many disparate and orginally isolated ideas and repackaging them with a binding theme he called lateral thinking. The world has never looked back. De Bono's insight and salesmanship have been a wonder to behold.

So too, Eli Goldratt has taken critical thinking skills from various areas, put a graphical front end on them, and repackaged them with a binding theme he calls Thinking Processes. Not as powerful as De Bono, but certainly in the same ballpark.

Lisa Scheinkopf does quite a marvellous job in providing a didactic introduction to these Thinking Processes. At the end of the day, she unfolds a systematic way of problem solving - and this is, indeed, what the thinking tools are all about.

I understand that Scheinkopf's choice and ordering of chapters was meant to reflect her belief that the individual tools can be used independently of each other. It would have been nice if she had provided a bit more detail showing how the tools complement each other; but, her book, her prerogative. In regard to matters which require the the systematic and complementary use of each and every tool in the toolset, I think Bill Dettmer's provides better insight.

The book is generally clear, with one or two minor slips into obscurity.
I think Scheinkopf falls into the same trap that most authors who present these type of tools. They occasionally have a rush of too much Oxygen to the brain and push their product beyond its elastic limits and start to hand-wave a little too much. In this regard, I find the "So What Test" which forms part of her discussion of Current Reality Trees one of those hand-waving areas. Apart from being something to do with simplifying a current reality tree by means of a review of "entities" from a systems perspective (whatever that really means), I find the actual application of the test as described quite obscure. (As an aside, Bill Dettmer also hand-waves at this point too. I think that both authors attempt to transform craft into some sort of science in a manner which needs a rethink).

Anyway, overall, I think Scheinkopf's work is very good. I think it deserves to be read in support of an understanding of the TOC Thinking Processes, but, it simply isn't enough to read as the only source of understanding. I recommend reading some of Dettmer's work too. Between the two (and Goldratt himself of course), the whole system of TOC and Thinking Processes adds a useful set of tools to problem solving.

Theory of Constraints -- the practical book on the topic.......2006-10-24

You may have heard of "Theory of Constraints" or "TOC" as a project management method that focuses on placing buffers on GANNT charts. But that's just one application of this general analysis and decision-making method called Theory of Constraints.

If you've ever wanted to "brainstorm" or "think outside the box," or just want to plan your next big task in a more complete way, but didn't know where to start, this book is for you. It actually offers a lot more than a start: methods, a simple notation, and when to do what in great detail.

A lot of what you read may seem like "just common sense," but perhaps that's what makes it fun: a powerful, verifiable thinking tool that's also simple and makes sense.

You don't have to read the whole book at once. Try reading some, and then applying it. See how it goes.

This Book Will Help You!.......2006-09-13

I read various books regarding the Theory of Constraints. Except for the chapter on prerequisite trees, this book explains how to use the theory very well to solve your daily problems. It also gives you a wealth of exercises that you can use to improve your practice of the theory.

A must for management and a should for anyone else........2004-10-14

This book puts it all together and can lead anyone down the path of logical thinking, be it solving a problem or creating a plan. Combine the teachings of this book with the other TOC principles and you've got a recipe for success. I highly reccommend this book to all my consulting clients and friends for use in both business and personal life.

Worth Way More Than [$].......2003-06-17

I really hesitated to pay [$] for a book that is not directly related to my profession, somewhat short, and had an unkown beneficial value. Being casually familiar with the thinking processes from It's Not Luck, I went ahead and bought the book. I'm not disappointed. In about a month it has paid for itself several times over. It's not an easy read, but if your curious enough to be reading this, you can understand it. If your a professional with a wife and kid(s), it is a must for both work and home.

Average customer rating:

Organizing For Dummies
Organized Information on Organizing
Good information about organization
Very Good
Excellent Book , if you are already organized!

Organizing for Dummies
Eileen Roth , and Elizabeth Miles
Manufacturer: For Dummies
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ASIN: 0764553003

Book Description

What’s the favorite four-letter word of people who are less than fully organized? “Help!” So many technological, social, and economic changes affect your life that you need organization just to keep up, let alone advance. Many people have two jobs – one at the office and one taking care of things at home. If you have a family, you may count that as a third job. Caring for elderly relatives or have community commitments? You can count off four, five, and keep right on going.

No matter what life stage you’re in, getting organized can make every day better and help you achieve your long-term goals. Organizing For Dummies is for anyone who wants to

Polish his or her professional reputation
Experience less stress
Increase productivity
Build better relationships
Maximize personal time

Organization isn’t inherited. With the human genome decoded, the evidence is clear: DNA strings dedicated to putting things into place and managing your time like a pro are nonexistent. Instead, organization is a learned skill set. Organizing For Dummies helps you gain that skill with topics such as:

Understanding how clutter costs you in time, money, and health
Training your mind to be organized and developing a plan
Cleaning house, room by room, from basement to attic (including the garage)
Creating functional space for efficiency and storage
Time-management strategies for home, office, and tavel
Scheduling, delegating, and multitasking
Making time for your family
Managing your health – physical and financial
Finding time for love
Organizing and cashing in on a great garage sale

Getting organized is about unstuffing your life, clearing out the dead weight in places from your closet to your calendar to your computer, and then installing systems that keep the good stuff in its place. Organizing is a liberating and enlightening experience that can enhance your effectiveness and lessen your stress every day – and it’s all yours simply for saying “No” to clutter.

Customer Reviews:

Organizing For Dummies.......2007-05-21

I thought the whole approach very common sense ... though my reason for reading it might make one wonder if I had any common sense ... at least now things are organized. If you need (or even just think you need) some help getting organized, I would heartily reccomend it.

Organized Information on Organizing.......2007-04-04

The great layout of this book will have you organizing your home in no time. Imagine an organization system that's also functional!

Good information about organization.......2007-01-20

This is a pretty large book, so I can't say I read it 100% yet. I have read the several intro chapters as well as the summary chapters and the time/life management chapters. I also read through specific chapters about organizing a few areas at home. I made a few photocopies of both sides of the 'summary card' in the front for quick reference.

I really like the book's clear layout, 'highlight/target' points, and helpful summaries. It seems like you can always organize things better, but yet you don't want to blow tons of time and you want your system to be flexible and USEFUL rather than just looking great. :)

This book has a lot of good information, some humor, and good insights too. It is entertaining, motivating, and informative. It also helps to get junk out of your house that you don't or can't use anymore! I am making improvement in that area now. Overall, I'm a satisfied reader.

Very Good.......2007-01-15

I thought this book was very good and offered several suggestions that were helpful. Some of it is just plain common sense but I would still recommend it.

Excellent Book , if you are already organized!.......2007-01-07

I agree with an earlier review of this book. Nothing new here! Although the layout of this "Dummies" book, follows in the basic outline of all in this series, that is about the extent of the helpful content. It is obvious that the author is organized - as she practically refers back to her own talent in that area frequently. She must not have anyone in her life close to her that is of a different thought process. Namely - the unorganized. I don't believe that she undersands our mindset one bit.

If you want real help, keep looking!

Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance (Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability)

Average customer rating:

largest book written on extremes
Highly recommended

Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance (Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability)
Paul Embrechts , Claudia Klüppelberg , and Thomas Mikosch
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 3540609318

Book Description

Both in insurance and in finance applications, questions involving extremal events (such as large insurance claims, large fluctuations in financial data, stock market shocks, risk management, ...) play an increasingly important role. This book sets out to bridge the gap between the existing theory and practical applications both from a probabilistic as well as from a statistical point of view. Whatever new theory is presented is always motivated by relevant real-life examples. The numerous illustrations and examples, and the extensive bibliography make this book an ideal reference text for students, teachers and users in the industry of extremal event methodology.

Customer Reviews:

largest book written on extremes.......2002-01-30

This book presents extreme value theory and its applications with the finance industry as its primary target. There have been many excellent texts written on extreme value theory but none this extensive. As the authors admit even as extensive as it is the theory of multivariate extremes is neglected. They chose to only cover in detail the theory that is mature enough for application.

What you will find here that is not in many texts on this subject is a treatment of risk theory and fluctuations of sums and various time series models including cases with heavy-tailed marginal distributions.

Chapter 8 on special topics is particularly interesting with a lot of coverage for the extremal index, large claim index, ARCH processes, large deviations, reinsurance, stable processes and self-similarity. The book contains over 600 references to the literature and is a welcome resource for practitioners in finance and insurance as well as extreme value theorists.

Highly recommended.......2000-08-15

This book covers the theory and applications of extremal value theory (an area of applied probability). The mathematics is kept at an acceptable level, i.e. advanced undergraduates in math/physics/engineering, but the breadth and the sophistication of the statements are such that the results are never trivial. Chapters 2-3-4 introduce the reader to the property of sums, maxima and order statistics of random variables. Many results are only stated but not proved. Yet, this does not detract to the readability of the book. Chpater 5 treats point processes and requires a deeper mathematical background. Among the chapters, this was the most disappointing to me. The monographs of Resnick and of Kallenberg, as well as many good introductions to point processes in queueing theory, are in my opinion both a more intuitive and rigorous introduction to random measures. This is not a major flaw of the book, given its view toward applications; and besides this, the bibliographical notes will point the reader to the relevant literature. Chapter 6, on statistical analysis of extremal events, is enjoyable and extremely useful for practitioners in finance and insurance. Chapter 7 touches upon time series and its relation to heavy tails. Finally, chapter 8 is a put-pourri of topics: ARCH processes, stable processes, self-similarity. Overall, I found this book useful as a reference, but sometimes lacking in focus: some topics seem juxtaposed with no clear logical continuity. Another potential shortcoming of the book is that it is neither completely rigorous nor completely readable (i.e., an undergraduate-level book). At the same time, these can be considered as qualities: with regards to the former, there is plenty of material to consult and draw inspiration from; and at the same time each reader will find the "right" level of mathematics in the book. In my opinion the final balance is largely positive, and I would recommend this book without hesitation.

Order from Chaos: A Six-Step Plan for Organizing Yourself, Your Office, and Your Life

Average customer rating:

Best organizing book I have read
Tackling The Chaos
Good, but slightly silly
instantly changes your life
Everyone can benefit & an entertaining read

Order from Chaos: A Six-Step Plan for Organizing Yourself, Your Office, and Your Life
Liz Davenport
Manufacturer: Three Rivers Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0609807773
Release Date: 2001-12-18

Book Description

The Six Steps to Organizational Freedom

Do you:
*Miss important deadlines at work?
*Forget to return urgent phone calls?
*Lose papers that were “just here a minute ago”?
*Have multiple layers of sticky notes on your computer?
*Leave projects unfinished for days, weeks, or even months at a time?

If any of these sound familiar, then you are among the ranks of the disorganized—whether mildly or completely—and Liz Davenport has written this book just for you. Order from Chaos is the organizing book for disorganized people. In six easy steps she offers a system that will help you clean up your act. She demonstrates how to clear your desk by teaching you what's trash and why, reveals what a calendar is really meant to be, and provides a no-fail system for prioritization. At the end of the day, your desk will be clear and your mind will be free to relax.

Rather than offering overcomplicated instructions for filing systems and time management plans, Order from Chaos focuses on ease of use. There is not one person—from office assistant to CEO—who will not benefit from this straightforward, easy-to-maintain plan.

Customer Reviews:

Best organizing book I have read.......2007-07-03

I own and have read many organizing books. I'm actually fairly organized and am always looking for tips to be even more organized. This book had the most immediate and lasting impact of any organization book I have read. I read it all in one sitting the night I got it because I found it so helpful. Many items, I thought to myself "yes, I already do that and it works" and many other items, I thought, "wow, that would make a difference." I HIGHLY recommend this book.

Tackling The Chaos.......2007-06-07

This is Author Liz Davenport common-sense approach on organization by utilizing a 6 step method. It's an easy to read, easy to follow guide. I looked at several books on this subject in a bookstore before I chose this one for its straightforwardness and ease of reading.
The information is presented in an easy to comprehend way.
If you never have time to keep track of where things are in your house this book can help you to start tackling the chaos.

Good, but slightly silly.......2007-01-23

The book was very well organized and offered a great soulution. But more then anything else it made you realize just about how much "stuff" comes your way on a daily basis. To have a system that acknowleges such a large amount of "stuff" is important for your sanity. She also helps you realize that although we have a list of "to-do" items- they are usually things that must be done with no larger purpose. She suggests to incorporate in a heart-line or a single task a day that will help you move towards a much larger personal goal.
I would recommend it as a read- but take her advice with a grain of salt. As it can be very time consumming to stay "organized". And plus, there is all that surfacing information lately about how the chaos thoery ( or lack of any organization) is a more effective means at maintaining order.

instantly changes your life.......2007-01-21

I'm a pretty organized person who does not hesitate to go paperless, but running a creative business I knew I could be working more efficiently. I'm only about 70 pages into this book and already it's changed my office, as well as my general attitude toward accomplishing tasks of any kind. Refreshing and enlightening! Even if you don't use all the advice in this book, the ones you do use make it worth it.

Everyone can benefit & an entertaining read.......2007-01-17

The practical steps this book details can help anyone - including those who are organized and those that are not. It's easy to read, entertaining even, and everso practical. The principles can be applied to any size business, home management and personal lifestyle. I read many such books for my business and still managed to come away with a stack full of ideas to implement. Kudoos to Liz Davenport for this excellent guide!

Organizing Your Work Space, Revised Edition: A Guide to Personal Productivity (A Crisp Fifty-Minute Book)

Average customer rating:

A bit disappointed
Quick Start
Great book to get you started
Practical and simple to follow methods
Immensely practical; a one-time life experience

Organizing Your Work Space, Revised Edition: A Guide to Personal Productivity (A Crisp Fifty-Minute Book)
Odette Pollar
Manufacturer: Crisp Learning
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 1560525223

Book Description

Tackle that endless paper flow with creative filing tips, clutter-busters, and workable action plans. Start today! Manage your desk and papers. Keep clutter away permanently. Avoid paper backlogs.

Customer Reviews:

A bit disappointed.......2004-09-13

I was so excited for this book to come! I couldn't wait to read it. I have to admit that now after reading it, I am a bit disappointed. While it is quick and easy to read some of the information is extremely basic and elementary and I considered about half of the book to be a waste of my time (but hey, what's 25 minutes in the grand scheme of things?). I did however find some of the tips very helpful and practical. For instance, the book helped me recognize situations when it's okay to throw things away, something I never do. Overall, a good read with some helpful ideas. Just be prepared to skip over the stuff that you already know, and be able to apply the general deatils to your specific needs.

Quick Start.......2002-07-20

I was able to read this book in one night and still had time to make a game plan for tackling the organization project at the office for the next morning. There were a few ideas that were easy to implement; some so simple I can't believe I never thought of them before. (The Tickler Files!) After two work days, I had changed my work process enough to feel better, and thus have some relief. Not to mention, on day two, my director stopped mid-sentance when she saw the top of my desk and praised me for how clean and organized I was.

This book is a great place to start for some easy, immediate results. However, I need much, much more on PDA's, e-mail, case management, and paperwork flow. The success I had from the small investment of time here will keep me motivated to move on to books tackling the larger picture.

Great book to get you started.......2001-09-30

I was totally disorganized and swamped with paper everywhere. This book was one of 3 I bought and was the first one I read. It is easy to read and follow, and it brought order and gave me confidence to start my umpteenth effort to get organized. Absolutely recommend it to anyone who is in need of a kick start to getting organized.

Practical and simple to follow methods.......2000-09-04

This book is well organized. It offers practical and simple to follow methods. If you don't want to spend a lot of time reading, but to take action getting organized, this is the book to read.

Immensely practical; a one-time life experience.......1998-10-03

I ran into the first edition of Oganizing Your Workspace at a time when I needed to get my work habits reorganized. It was full of very simple, almost obvious suggestions on how to get out of grid lock, and how work in a focused way. It takes some "humility" for a "seasoned executive" to read through a book like this, but for me it paid off many times over.

Generalized Method of Moments (Advanced Texts in Econometrics)

Average customer rating:

Generalized Method of Moments (Advanced Texts in Econometrics)
Alastair R. Hall
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0198775202

Book Description

This book has become one of the main statistical tools for the analysis of economic and financial data. Designed for both theoreticians and practitioners, this book provides a comprehensive treatment of GMM estimation and inference. All the main statistical results are discussed intuitively
and proved formally, and all the inference techniques are illustrated using empirical examples in macroeconomics and finance. This book is the first to provide an intuitive introduction to the method combined with a unified treatment of GMM statistical theory and a survey of recent important
developments in the field.

Thinking In Time : The Uses Of History For Decision Makers

Average customer rating:

A Waste of Time so far
Unreadable
A Powerful System for Using Historical Examples
An indispensable aid for decision makers.
A System for Learning from History

Thinking In Time : The Uses Of History For Decision Makers
Richard E. Neustadt
Manufacturer: Free Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0029227917

Customer Reviews:

A Waste of Time so far .......2006-11-26

I have to admit I'm not finished reading this book and generally hate reviews that haven't read the entire book. But this time there's a particular reason why I'm writing this review now.

That reason is that the first sentence in this book is: "They're too busy. Can't read what they get now" referring to leaders and decision-makers, the very people this book is intended to help. Apparently the authors didn't take the VERY FIRST line in their own book to heart. Perhaps in a bizarre attempt to prove the mediocrity of anything done by committee the authors have written a ridiculously convoluted, meandering, unorganized, semi-pointless, quasi-sort-of history book, that really, really, REALLY takes it time to get to it's sort-of point. If you ever want to be completely befuddled as to how Harvard -supposedly the best university in the world- picks its professors just read the like 12 pages too long and completely pointless preface to this book. Just as Jeremy Rifkin's total bunk has taken the sheen off of Wharton for me, these two have achieved the same sizing down for Haw-vad.

Anyway, from what I can tell so far you can read the two very good spotlight reviews -whose authors fortunately seemed to enjoy the book a good deal- and get the entire point of the book without actually having to buy or read it. Otherwise the actual meat and potatoes of the book is: One (and the authors even admit to this point in their preface!!) not very good history (the authors admit to it being "tight" and scaled down) of selected case studies, which actually don't even support their method of using history. (At the end of the very first case study on the Cuban Missile Crisis, supposedly the success story to grab your attention and show the uses of history, the authors summarize by stating that the crisis was probably a success purely by accident, and that some of the supposedly wonderful decisions made by Kennedy and his advisor were even made on the basis of AVOIDING history! So remember kids, go ahead and avoid history sometimes, use it other times, and poof, by accident, history will help you to . . . err . . . do, um . . . well, I forgot.) And two, a bunch of platitudes like you should study history "carefully" (as opposed to carelessly I guess . . .), thinking can improve things on the margin (I'll be sure to start thinking now and see if I can earn a couple more percent a year), and you should look before you leap, and, like, wait 30 minutes before swimming after you eat your sandwich, and if you don't touch your tuna casserole it's going to get cold, and . . .

I might continue reading this thing, but right now it's a lot of work for very little payoff, and I've got better things to do with my time. It's too bad because I really do believe history is important in forming good decisions, but this book just isn't reaching me on how to read and use history.

Unreadable.......2005-07-09

A few years ago, I was assigned to read this book for a course in my MA War Studies programme at King's College London.

This book was utterly unreadable. I am still unable to fathom how professors at Harvard could produce such convoluted nonsense.

There is no 'quick and easy' method to master the use of history when making decisions. I pity those who would seek to discover such a chimera in this book.

A Powerful System for Using Historical Examples.......2005-05-01

For years, Richard Neustadt and Ernest May taught a course in Decision Making at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. It must have been one heck of a course.

The subtitle of this book is "The Uses of History for Decision-Makers." That could actually be broadened a bit to something like "The Uses of Precedents and Analogies for Decision-Makers."

Remember when we were debating going to war in Iraq? How many times did you hear the precedent of Viet Nam invoked?

And, if you're old enough, remember Viet Nam? How many times did you hear about Munich?

How many times in business have you heard a colleague invoke a historical precedent to justify a particular course of action?

We use historical precedents and analogies all the time. Most of the time we use them as if history repeats itself. It doesn't.

Mark Twain's aphorism captures best what really happens. "History does not repeat, but it does rhyme." This book will give you tools that you can use to sort out what's the same (the rhymes) and what's different and then use your analysis to make better decisions.

The authors introduce you to methods that will help you sort things out in all kinds of different situations. They teach you about separating "facts" into known, unknown, and presumed. They discuss analyzing precedents that you're about to base a decision on in terms of likes and differences from the current situation.

By itself, no individual idea or tool is unique. None of this is rocket science. But the authors give you a systematic application of common sense and proven techniques. That system gives you power.

There are lots of little "sidebar" points as well. For example, there's the Goldberg Rule.

That rule tells you not to ask, "What's the problem?" Instead ask, "What's the story?" I picked up that technique from this book when I first read it years ago and I've used it ever since in my consulting work and research. Try it. You'll like it.

There's also Dr. Alexander's question, which: "What fresh facts, if at hand, by when, would cause you to change your presumption?" Instead of presumption, you can insert direction, or recommendation. This simple question forces decision-makers in a group to look at underlying assumptions and to look at when those assumptions need to be changed. It, too, is simple and powerful.

The techniques in this book will definitely help you sharpen your decision-making skills. But there's an added benefit for you if you're a history buff. You'll enjoy the anecdotes and analysis of historical events, such as The Bay of Pigs, where one of the authors was an advisor.

There are a lot of books on decision-making. This is the only one I'm aware of that deals clearly and systematically with the use of precedent and historical analogy.

An indispensable aid for decision makers........2003-02-11

As an avid reader of history, I've long struggled with putting my learning to use in day-to-day situations, whether that be in evaluating critical business decisions or in helping me better observe and understand the world around me. On the one hand, there is the familiar aphorism attributed to George Santayana that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. But, on the other hand, each situation is truly unique, and the use of historical analogies is clearly fraught with pitfalls. "Thinking in Time" addresses this conundrum and provides a sound basis for using historical knowledge intelligently and responsibly.

To overcome the temptation of using history incorrectly, the authors put forward a specific process for decision makers in crisis situations, and they use case studies to highlight successes and failures in the use of history as guide to decision making. The case studies are all drawn from domestic and foreign policy scenarios, but the lessons are applicable to any organization (private sector, non-profit, etc.).

The authors' decision making methodology may seem a bit didactic or formulaic at first, but it is meant to be used with the greatest flexibility. The heart of the process is to establish a system of critical inquiry and resist the temptation to jump to the "options phase" of decision making immediately. Rather, the authors argue, focus clearly on the situation at hand and confirm the intended objective. This can be started by listing what is known, what is unclear and what is presumed about the situation. Next, analogies will come to mind or will likely be invoked for advocacy (intentionally or otherwise), so quickly highlight all the "likenesses" and "differences" between the present situation and the historical analogies. This should further clarify the present situation and the intended objectives

The authors suggest other tools that, while useful, are a bit more cumbersome than separating the known from the unclear from the presumed in any given situation, which I know do religiously at work. Some of the other techniques covered include laying out a timeline of the event, including major concurrent events along with the details; asking journalistic questions (where, how, why, what, etc.) for each major event along the timeline; setting odds for given "if - then" scenarios; explicitly laying out what kind of information (new "knowns") would change your various "presumeds"; and for various options asking "For the objective of X, Y is the best option because...."

In closing, "Thinking in Time" is one of the ten most influential books I've ever read. If you are in a leadership position in business, government or even the local lodge, this book can make you a more effective leader. The only thing I regret about reading "Thinking in Time" is that I didn't do it sooner.

A System for Learning from History.......2002-09-02

This book presents a terrific tool to anyone who would choose to lead in politics. In it, Neustadt presents a systematic way for dissecting situations in terms of past history (starting with figuring out what is known, unknown, or assumed in any particular crisis). The book presents several situations in which Presidents either did or did not accurately read past precedents in history. Neustadt's cogent analysis provides terrific insights into situations like Kennedy's successful use of history to avoid disaster in the Cuban Missile Crisis. One of the chapters I found most interesting was Neustadt's discussion on how President Carter misread the "honeymoon" period presidents actually receive with Congress.

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