History: Fiction or Science? (Chronology, No. 1)

Book Description

Recorded history is a finely-woven magic fabric of intricate lies about events predating the sixteenth century. There is not a single piece of evidence that can be reliably and independently traced back earlier than the eleventh century. This book details events that are substantiated by hard facts and logic, and validated by new astronomical research and statistical analysis of ancient sources.

Customer Reviews:

Has history been tampered with?.......2007-10-23

Watch Video Here: http://www.amazon.com/review/RAZQNMXM4M9CL Has history been tampered with? Yes, it has! Did events and eras such as the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, the Roman Empire , the Dark Ages, and the Renaissance, actually occur within a very different chronology from what we've been told? Yes, they certainly did!

The history of humankind is both drastically shorter and dramatically different than generally presumed.

Why is it so? On one hand, it was usual custom to justify the claims to title and land by age and ancestry, and on the other the court historians knew only too well how to please their masters. The so called universal classic world history is a pack of intricate lies for all events prior to the 16th century. World history as we learn it today was entirely fabricated in the 16th-18th centuries. It's likely that nobody told you before, but

there is not a single piece of firm written evidence or artefact that is reliably and independently dated prior to the 11th century.

Naturally, after what you've learned in school and university, you will not easily believe that the classical history of ancient Rome, Greece, Asia, Egypt, China, Japan, India, etc., is manifestly false.

You will point accusing finger to the pyramids in Egypt, to the Coliseum in Rome and Great Wall of China etc., and claim, aren't they really ancient, thousands of years ancient? Well, there is no valid scientific proof that they are older than 1000 years!

The oldest original written document that can be reliably dated belongs to the 11th century!

New research asserts that Homo sapiens invented writing (including hieroglyphics) only 1000 years ago. Once invented, writing skills were immediately and irreversibly put to the use of ruling powers and science.

The consensual chronology we live with was essentially crafted in the 16th century by the Jesuits.

The world history was compiled from contradictory mix of innumerable copies of ancient Latin and Greek manuscripts and other irrefutable proofs delivered by late mediaeval astronomers that were cemented by the authority of writings of the Church Fathers.

Early in life, we learn about ancient history. Children love the magical lessons of history - they are like fairy tales. Teachers recite breathtaking stories; very soon We learn by heart the names and deeds of brave warriors, wise philosophers, fabulous pharaohs, cunning high priests and greedy scribes.

We learn of gigantic pyramids and sinister castles, kings and queens, dukes and barons, powerful heroes and beautiful ladies, emaciated saints and low-life traitors.

Ancient history is based documents, manuscripts, printed books, paintings, monuments and artefacts - called primary sources.

The problem is that neither these ancient documents, nor events described therein can be irrefutably dated, moreover they contradict each other for the most part.

When a school textbook tells us that Genghis Khan in year X or Alexander in year Y, have each conquered half of the world, it means only that it is so said in some of the written sources.

There are no answers to simple questions:

When were these primary sources written?

Where and by whom were these sources found?

It is wrongly presumed that ancient and medieval chronicles, written by Genghis Khan's or Alexander the Great contemporaries and eyewitnesses, are readily available. Actually, only sources written hundreds or even thousands of years after the events are there, compiled mostly in the 16th 18th centuries, or even later.

As a rule, these sources suffered considerable multiple manipulations, falsifications and distortions by editing. At the same time,

innumerable originals of ancient documents under various pretexts were destroyed in Europe under various pretexts.

The names of persons and geographical sites often changed meaning and location during the course of the centuries.

Geographical locations became clearly defined on maps only with the advent of printing.

This made possible the circulation of identical copies of the same map for purposes of the military, navigation, education and governance tasks.

Historians from Oxford say: "hey, everybody knows that Julius Caesar lived in the first century B.C.

`Julius Caesar' statement is only a point of view as

there is simply no irrefutable documentary proof that Julius Caesar or any other great name of antiquity ever existed.

Better than that - extremely rare sources that can be reliably dated back to the 10th-14th centuries A D, do not show the polished picture of classical history.

They show a picture both contradictory and confusing.

All methods of dating of ancient sources and artefacts are erroneous:

Radio-carbon C14 method produces dating with exactitude of plus minus 1500 years, therefore it is too crude for dating of events in historical timeframe!

The Almagest tractate, which lies as corner stone contemporary chronology, compiled in the 2nd century A D by Ptolemy, the founding father of astronomy, contains astronomical data of 9th to 16th century!

The Bronze Age,that has supposedly began 5000 years ago. Bronze is made of 90% copper and 10% tin, but the technology for tin extraction dates back to 14th century A D!.

All eclipses contained in manuscripts, like Thucydides one, relating 'ancient' events have exclusively medieval dating. All horoscopes cut in stone or painted in Egyptian temples, like Dendera have exclusively early medieval dating solutions.

Not quite what you have learned in school? Open your eyes, and, you will find sufficient proof to reach step by step the inevitable conclusion that the classical chronology is false and therefore, that the history of ancient and medieval world universally accepted today, is also false. Have a fresh outlook on everything said or printed about "ancient" and "enigmatic" Roman, Greek and Egyptian, medieval as well as all other "lost and found" civilizations.

Antiquity and Dark Ages are phantoms invented in the 16th 18th and polished in 19th 20thcenturies. Human civilization is in fact barely 1000 years old!

This book will change your perception of History forever!
What if Ancient Rome, Greece and Egypt were invented during Renaissance?
What if The Old Testament was a rendition of events of the Middle Ages?
What if Jesus Christ was born in 1053 and crucified in 1086 AD?
Sounds Unbelievable?
Not after you've read "History: Fiction or Science?" by Anatoly Fomenko, the genius mathematician.
Armed with astronomy and computers Anatoly Fomenko turns History into a rocket science.

Calculations are only as good as your numbers.......2007-08-03

Yes, we can all agree that mainstream history is nearly 100% BS due to politics, economics, ego, problems with dating techniques, and various conspiracies. Agreed. But, I've been researching the distinct possibility that human history (in terms of civilizations) are much more ancient than we've been told, so coming across this book was very interesting to me. I wondered how Fomenko could be wrong (if at all) because he is very persuasive in his presentations. Then it dawned on me. If at previous times in prehistory, due to the various catastrophies that are well documented (comets, asteroids, planetary disruptions, plasma discharge, pole reversals, etc) the Earth was in a different position in relation to the sun, different tilt on its axis, different orbit, different rotation (in terms of velocity and DIRECTION), and the continents were in different positions, then would this not cause the ancients to see the sky (constellations) differently? In other words, is Fomenko making erronious assumptions about the physics of the Earth in pre-history, which then corrupt his data with regards to dating the relevant astrology? The last event to seriously disrupt our planet occured roughly 3500 years ago, according to other good researchers, so is it possible Fomenko has been confused by this? The vastly different physics of our planet in the not so distant past may explain this confusion, which is not to say the "mainstream" version of history is correct; on the contrary. I am not an expert in these fields, but wanted to see if this idea could spark discussion.

Pants on fire?.......2007-07-19

Will people ever read before spamming? Yes, Jesuits could not rewrite world history alone, they had help. Anyway, Dr Prof Acad A.Fomenko does not point to jesuits as the driving force of world wide history manipulation in published volumes 1,2,3;, actually he barely mentions the poor devils. Check it with 'Search inside' feature, please. China is rarely mentioned either, in fact, Dr Fomenko is completely eurocentric. Right, his theory contradicts all mainstream schools of history, because in their actual state they are all built on blatantly erroneus chronology. You don't need a mysterious cabal (conspiracy) to falsify history, the falsification is its modus operandi. It is inherent to history(ians) to falsify (distort) events, as it is inherent to humans to boast as it is inherent to power (authority) to legimize itself by referrring to glorious past made to its own order. Dr Prof Fomenko and team have identified scores of instances of such manipulation in Russian, European, etc.. history, and delivered valid statistical proof thereof. His own 'reconstruction' is completely another story. Forget c14 as a valid method of dating. W.Libby has initially discovered a brilliant method of INDEPENDENT dating. Too bad, c14 method has become a joke after a forced marrige with dendrochronology with consensual chronological scale inbuilt. Radiocarbon method can't stand blind tests, but is so very productive as a rubberstamp.

Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed. .......2007-04-09

There is no doubt that history as most know it is a sham, & institution's version of History both University & Church is fradulent & inaccurate. Everything was established with an agenda, The real "Dark Ages" are now when we have access to incredible amounts of information past authorities & more important 'common folk' didn't have but our institutions & educators are slow to evolve because of what has ignorantly & arrogantly been taught for too long. This is on many subjects not just Chronology.

For anyone to question "Why would a Mathematician have anything credible to say of History?" The answer is from Dr. Fomenko's preface in the book: "It would be worthwhile to remind the reader that in the XVI-XVII century Chronology was considered to be a subdivision of Mathematics." These volumes could possibly be some of the most important works to date & should be read by everyone with an interest in History, especially professors & educators who have a duty to the public. I have read both books & must say that 'Chronology 1' has some very eye opening & revolutionary information. Even if these volumes are part true the implications are profound & opens the doors to further investigations & questions which must be done. I speak several different lanquages & must say the logic Dr. Fomenko uses with "inflection" of words & words being read from left to right in one region & right to left in another then written backwards, the removal of vowels & get down to basics of words, or different cities & locations having the same name etc. is correct. Vowel usage has always been optional & varied, actually complicating linquistics & study. The first thing one has to understand is that words never had a fixed spelling in history like we do now, the spelling of words was mutable & regional, as well as names & titles of people were vast, varied & changed, NOTHING WAS FIXED or understood linear. Matters of Life & Death as well as financial profiteering yesterday & today were & are made with ignorant, illogical & conspiratorial views of history & reality, it's time people get closer to the Truth & society collectively grow up.

Very Interesting.......2007-03-07

It is a good proposal and I believe it will mature into something even better in the future. I think it deserves to be read.

The New Investment Superstars: 13 Great Investors and Their Strategies for Superior Returns

Average customer rating:

Useful background detracted by gross errors
If you are looking for trading ideas, look elsewhere
Waste of Time
A long awaited
An Immensely Valuable Book

The New Investment Superstars: 13 Great Investors and Their Strategies for Superior Returns
Lois Peltz
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 047140313X

Book Description

Learn how these superstars invest, where they invest, what works--and what doesn't
Since people have been making money in the markets, investors and would-be investors have been fascinated with the money managers and traders who have extracted superior returns. In The New Investment Superstars, Lois Peltz examines fifteen of today's most successful investors by their area of expertise, including stock-picking, global macro trading, sector investing, and more. Readers will learn how these great investors approach the markets at a time when volatility is high and certainty low. From the thirty-five-year-old Lee Ainslie (Maverick Capital), dubbed the "Win-Win Investor" by Worth magazine, and Ken Griffin, the thirty-one-year-old who started his first hedge fund as a freshman at Harvard, to Lee Cooperman, long a star stockpicker at Goldman, we meet today's superior managers and learn how they do it.
Peltz reveals that these new stars are flexible traders who inherently understand that long-term wins come from recognizing that markets are ever-changing and that they must adapt. By reading about how they've succeeded and where they lost, investors will learn about market change, and how success is achieved.
Lois Peltz (New York, NY) was editor-in-chief of MAR/Hedge Funds, an investment performance reporting service, for eight years. She is now President and CEO of Investment Information Providers, an information services company that provides investment information services to the professional investment community.

Customer Reviews:

Useful background detracted by gross errors.......2002-11-11

Contains useful background information and insights on managers, and the industry though it is of limited use regarding the strategies those managers use. Two really glaring errors (page 48 & 49 on incentive fees, and Page 65 on correlations - perhaps a misquote or a quote out of context) cast doubt on the reliability of other statements in the book for me. Consequently I recommend reading it, but with more than the usual level of skepticism.

If you are looking for trading ideas, look elsewhere.......2001-10-12

This book contains an almost painful amount of detail concerning the organizational structure as well as the investor base of the hedge funds whose managers it profiles. Unfortunately, as far as actual trading strategies are concerned, it is a complete failure. It will tell you in which areas a fund is active, but give you excactly zero detail about the strategies and tactics used by its managers. Even some rather bad books I have read at least contained one or two ideas that were worth investigating, but I couldn't gain anything at all from this book. Also, some of the track records really aren't that impressive. Not really bad, but definitely not what you'd expect from "Superstars".

Waste of Time.......2001-09-04

Very poorly written. Comments were too general. Offered little insight regarding reasons for the success of the managers. Best part of the book was the compilation of track records for each of the managers.

A long awaited.......2001-07-11

complement to the John Train/Jack Schwager series of books on managers. This book measures up well with its well-regarded peers. Lois Peltz has collected interesting information on hedge fund manager, most of whom are unknown even to investment cognoscenti. They are in her book because of their stellar records, despite the low profile many share (due to strict marketing regs for these investment pools). For readers who want a peek behind the hedge fund curtain, this book is ideal. It captures the personalities and backgrounds of the managers, and it benefits from Peltz's analysis of commonalties and future thoughts on the industry. If you are investment professional looking to add a couple of nuggets to your repertoire, you might feel slightly let down (hence 4, not 5, stars). The eye opening aspect for me was the annual returns revealed for each of the managers. This information is not widely available, and the magnitude and consistency of the annual returns was amazing for several of the managers. The extent of and rationale behind leverage is explored as well. Overall, the book was excellent, and I was happy to add it to my extensive collection of investment related tomes.

An Immensely Valuable Book.......2001-06-06

It is rare to be able to read one book on a complex topic and have it contain information of use to both the novice and the veteran. Lois Peltz has done it in regard to hedge funds...the most erudite of investment arenas. Whether it be basic information (definitions, tables showing manager spin-offs, industry disasters) or advanced (the irony of having the objective of superior performance over the long-term being measured in 90 day intervals), this easily readable and fascinating treatise delivers. From her overview of superstar managers (including the counter-intuitive observation that they're not in it for the money but rather because they love the challenge) to the side-bars concluding each that allow the reader to compare highlights, the profiles are enlightening. Specific insights on managers (Bruce Kovner's analogy of managing money to painting, Paul Singer's analysis of model and herding risk, to Raj Rajaratnam's requirement that analysts performing due diligence fax in a daily "What I've learned" or risk not being reimbursed for their expenses) provide enormous understanding of each manager. Finally, her own perspective, including highlighting the issue of manager capacity, offers unusual help in selecting/understanding managers. A must-read!

The Almanac Investor: Profit from Market History and Seasonal Trends

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Armor, shield, and sword for stock market battles
Contains tons of info and tons of theories
Must have for an investment library
Comprehensive Guide to Stock Market Seasonality and Patterns
Some Useful Information Worth Knowing

The Almanac Investor: Profit from Market History and Seasonal Trends
Jeffrey A. Hirsch , and J. Taylor Brown
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0471654051

Book Description

The key to successful financial research is the ability to access and manipulate accurate data. This book, and its cutting edge, completely Internet-based trading system--that can organise and evaluate any market data, with all parameters set by the researcher--introduces a new way of doing just that. The Hirsch name is known for time tested and successful research and analysis, and The Almanac Investor will share valuable Hirsch theories and strategies with investors.

Trusted advice and techniques that can improve any reader's overall trading efficiency.
Contains data, indicators, and patterns needed to understand how and why the stock market fluctuates.
A companion Web site will host a revolutionary Web-based system to evaluate and improve trading practices.
Includes a step-by-step tutorial, which supplements every study in the book.

Customer Reviews:

Armor, shield, and sword for stock market battles.......2007-10-24

This book and the yearly Almanac by Hirsch Organization are the very basic staple weapons for Battle for ultimate victory in stock market. I simply would not engage in the market without them.

Contains tons of info and tons of theories.......2007-10-18

This is a great reference, where is contains a lot of compiled data of the years and tries to give some reasons for the tends presented. One main thing I took away from the book was that the market is really just a wild and crazy beast, but there might be some signs that can point to "warm fuzzies" for guidance in timing the market (sometimes).

Must have for an investment library.......2006-12-08

This book is a must have for its research in patterns. Weekly, daily, monthly, and presidential election patterns are all examined to show you the probabilities in trading in specifies time periods. From the data shown it is essential to stay in the market for November and December this is where 40% of the gains have come in the past 80 years. The stock market tends to decline on Thursday and Friday with traders getting out of their positions for a stress free weekend and then the market generally rises on Monday and Tuesday with the reentries. It is essential to fully invest in the stock market in the year before the presidential election, they have returned over 20% in the S&P over the past 4. Stay out of stocks in August and September, they are historically terrible months.

Also the chapter on the cyclical stocks shows you what sector to buy in what month and when to sell. For example :buy consumer stocks in May and sell in September. I can tell you from watching my company's stock over the past 4 years that this is true and one of the best ways to make money in the market. The graph with all industry sectors and showing the buy and sell months is worth the price of the book.

I have returned an average of 20% in my investments over the past 4 years and I can tell you if I would have had this book I could have increased my returns by at least 10%. I would have also decreased my losses during the bear market years by 10% by staying out of the markets in the worst 3 months.

Buy this book and read it to increase your probability of trading success dramatically. I promise you the book will pay for itself in one trade using its principles.

Comprehensive Guide to Stock Market Seasonality and Patterns .......2006-03-29

The Almanac Investor is a welcome addition to Hirsch's long-standing and indispensable annual Stock Trader's Almanac. Jeff Hirsch has co-authored the almanac with J. Taylor Brown, a VP at the Hirsch Organization. The 500+ page soft cover almanac provides investors and traders with useful insights into the stock market's performance over almost six decades. There are recurring patterns in the stock market and those who study history can put the odds in their favor. The Almanac is divided into three parts:

Part I covers indicators and patterns (e.g., weekly, monthly and annual data, the 4 year presidential cycle, the decennial cycle, bull and bear markets since 1990, and how war and peace impacted the markets).

Part II reviews seasonal sector investing and focuses on the best months to own 19 sector indexes (e.g., semiconductor, real estate, oil, and healthcare products) and their performance statistics. Each sector's performance is tracked on four pages pinpointing the performance during the best seasonal periods compared to buy-and-hold, a price chart typically ten years in duration, the top stocks of the index, the best and worst months performance, and the performance by each month of the best monthly time period. At a glance the reader can easily spot the trends that are persistent over time.

ETFs have grown tremendously in volume and importance over the past few years, and the almanac provides detailed information on most of them in Part II. There is a separate chapter devoted to almost 200 ETFs, including a description of the ETF, its top ten holdings, top sectors, and recent price chart. An index lists all the ETFs alphabetically, as well as by their category (e.g., large cap, Latin America, software, etc.) for those investors who want to compare the ETF composition and performance by category.

Part III is a vast database of monthly price history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard and Poor's 500 from 1950 through June 2005, the NASDAQ Composite since its inception in 1971, and the Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979.

Investors and traders who are looking to put money into the stock should definitely consider the eye-opening patterns and seasonality that have occurred in the stock market for decades. Realizing that there is no guarantee on Wall Street that patterns will persist into the future, the knowledgeable investor/trader will benefit from this encyclopedic array of information. Individuals purchasing this almanac are offered a free 60 trial of the The Almanac Investor Online Research platform which is updated continually. Overall, the almanac is a "must have" for any serious investor or trader.

Some Useful Information Worth Knowing.......2006-03-12

If you study the markets, you will come across all kinds of 'cycles' and 'effects' that have correlations to whether the market goes up or down. In many instances, why these correlations and patterns exist is unclear. With that being said, just because we don't know why something happens does not mean we should just ignore it.

This book provides information on many patterns and seasonal effects that seem to correlate to the market. While you may not want to use these patterns as your primary investment decision making tool, to ignore them is to ignore patterns that exhibited high probabilities (70%, 80% even 100%) of repeating, just as they have, in many instances, for 100 years or more. If the market has gone up in every year ending in the number '5' (1995, 2005) for the last 100 years, do you really want to bet it will go down the next time?

This book is mostly a reference guide that contains interesting and useful information about patterns that occur on different time frames --- daily, weekly, monthly, yearly. If you want to 'stack' the odds of a successful trade as much as possible in your favor, you probably will benefit from having this as a reference book.

The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010

Average customer rating:

Next Great Bubble Boom, Revised Again
Is Dent Such A Big Liar or Just that Stupid?
interesting read
Dent in my wallet
Wealth takes research

The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010
Harry S. Dent
Manufacturer: Free Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0743288483

Book Description

For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Dent, Jr., has been uncannily accurate in predicting the financial future. In his three previous works, Dent predicted the financial recession of the early nineties, the economic expansion of the mid-nineties, and the financial free-for-all of 1998-2000.

The Next Great Bubble Boom -- part crystal ball, part financial planner -- offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of the crash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.

Dent gives us all something to look forward to, including:

The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade
The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009
Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006
The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010

Dent's amazing ability to track and forecast our financial future is renowned, and here he takes that ability to the next level, showing not only what our economy will look like but also how it will affect us as individuals, as organizations, and as a culture. From the upcoming wealth revolution to the essential principles of entrepreneurial success, the book describes a new society where economic and philanthropic development go hand in hand.

In The Next Great Bubble Boom, Dent shows not only how the economic growth of the late 1990s was a prelude to the true great boom right around the corner but how all of us can reap its benefits.

Customer Reviews:

Next Great Bubble Boom, Revised Again.......2007-09-03

Hindsight tells us a lot of things. For the Next Great Bubble Boom, hindsight shows that Harry Dent's analysis of a 40,000 Dow and 20,000 Nasdaq are just as fanciful now as they were when he made the predictions in 2004. His latest revisions, which came out last year, show he has cut his original estimate in half, and that the predicted outcomes are much more within reason. The difficulty with accepting his predictions now is that the past ones ended so dismally. The seductive part of Dent's analysis is that it squares with historical and demographical cycles. The ridiculous part is the extrapolation into predictive behavior. It you want some really wild stuff, just look at what he says will happen from 2023 on. If anybody made any investment decisions based on this book, they're about due for a thorough reality check. His most powerful cycle, the 10-year cycle, seems the most likely one to come true. But the difficulty with predicting what will happen in each 10 year cycle is that Dent bases it strictly on stock market past behavior. And whenever that prediction fails, Dent finds some new cycle to explain his error. His latest cycle, the geopolitical cycle, supposedly explains the failure of the markets to rise in 2004-2005. What he failed to recognize early on was the impact of commodities, hedge funds, and Fed interest rate policy. Whenever the Fed raises rates, the stock market goes numb, because large institutional investors stay away. This time around, those investors put their billions into hedge funds, to get the promise of 40%+ returns. That alone explains the 2004-2005 doldrums. Add the spectacular housing boom/bust and you see why Dent's predictions went south. Now that the Fed has stopped raising rates and is apparently going to drop them, some of what Dent predicted still could come time. But notice that the title for the short book now says 2006-2010 rather than 2005-2010. The revisions just keep coming. I can't wait for the next one.

Is Dent Such A Big Liar or Just that Stupid?.......2007-06-26

I really do not know what to think. So many people write books based on a positive premise rather than reality because they know positivity sells. There's nothing wrong with positivity, but it should be reserved for motivational speakers not investments and economics. We are talking about people's retirement funds here!

Dent does not say much of anything new that he hasn't already said in his previous books. He is just trying to cash in on a rebound from the Internet bubble collapse. What kind of value is there in predicting a stretch of 4 years of great market returns? Regardless, we have yet to see this spectacular market performance. I'll tell you why he did this. Anyone with common sense knows that extremes in the market are followed by compensatory reversals which may or may not last. What this means is that Dent (like many others) expected a rebound from the lows in the market merely due to normal stock market behavior. The fact that he has restricted it to 2010 tells you where he thinks the market is really headed--down.

NEVER BUY A BOOK BY ANYONE WHO HAS A VESTED INTEREST IN a BULLISH STOCK MARKET (THOSE WHO WORK FOR MUTUAL FUNDS AND WALL STREET). ALSO NEVER BUY A BOOK BY ANYONE WORKING FOR A HEDGE FUND UNLESS YOU WANT TO HEAR THAT THE MARKET WILL GO DOWN. THESE GUYS ARE ALREADY TAKINGYOUR MONEY IN TEH MARKET AND NOW THEY WANNA TAKE YOUR MONEY BY SELLING YOU BOOKS FILLED WITH DREAMS THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

Don't waste your money on this book. Instead get some books that talk about how bad the economy really is and how it is going to get worse for many years.

interesting read.......2007-04-11

interesting read. I am still waiting for his predictions to come true...

Dent in my wallet.......2007-04-07

If only I could express how much time and optimism I wasted after reading this book...

The fact is that the forecasts are wildly out of sync with reality, Dent's methods are proving to be nearly useless and market risks are actually on the INCREASE as I write this review.

Dent did not predict the real estate boom, he did not predict the commodity boom, he did not predict the 2000 bear market, he did not predict the dollar loss against the Euro... the list goes on. When he gets a prediction wrong, he just adds another "cycle" to his forecasts... the stock market turned to goo after 2000? "oh, well we discovered the 10 year stock cycle, and this PROVES that stocks should have gone down"... the Dow didn't go to 14,000 (as predicted in this book)? "Oh, we forgot about the commodity super-cycle". How many other 'cycles' does Dent not know about?

After reading this book a couple years ago, I'm sad to say I subscribed to his newsletter at around $400-500 /year, and while their knowledge of economic fundamentals was clearly solid, I can't say I made any money from his insights, or that his insights were any better than what I'd read on the Internet for free.

I'd recommend you take this book (along with everything else) with a grain of salt, and learn from a lesson that sinks in only after you've blown money... no one knows the future, especially Dent.

Wealth takes research.......2007-03-09

Harry Dent has another winner. Being the third in a series of books by Harry Dent, "The Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010," tells us again how to save what wealth we have and increase it during the current economic and investment boom. Anyone with money to invest must read this book.

History of Economic Analysis: With a New Introduction

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Economics for adults
The beginnings of economic concepts in full detail
Complex and Sophisticated History of Economic Theory
THE masterpiece in history of economic thought

History of Economic Analysis: With a New Introduction
Joseph A. Schumpeter
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0195105591

Book Description

At the time of his death in 1950, Joseph Schumpeter--one of the great economists of the first half of the 20th century--was working on his monumental History of Economic Analysis. A complete history of efforts to understand the subject of economics from ancient Greece to the present, this book is an important contribution to the history of ideas as well as to economics. Although never fully completed, it has gained recognition as a modern classic due to its broad scope and original examination of significant historical events. Complete with a new introduction by Mark Perlman, who outlines the structure of the book and puts Schumpeters work into current perspective, History of Economic Analysis remains a reflection of Schumpeters diverse interests in history, philosophy, sociology, and psychology. Major topics include the techniques of economic analysis, contemporaneous developments in other sciences, and the sociology of economics; economic writings from Plato and Aristotle up through the time of Adam Smith, including the medieval scholastics and natural-law philosophers; the work of Malthus, Mill, Ricardo, Marx, and the important European economists; the history, sociology, psychology, and economics of the period 1879-1914; and modern economic developments. Schumpeter perceived economics as a human science, and this lucid and insightful volume reflects that perception, creating a work that is of major importance to the history of economics.

Customer Reviews:

Economics for adults.......2004-07-05

This book is one of the greats. Written by a master of economic theory, it reflects his learning and insight. But have no mistake, Schumpeter expects you to meet him half-way, so if you like to be spoon-fed and prefer pictures to words, this is not the book for you. The book needs to be read together with the original material: Schumpeter is not a substitute for, but a guide to the material he writes about. To criticise this book for not being light reading is simply to misunderstand this: to understand important thoughts requires some thinking and if you are not prepared to do the work, you shouldn't fool with this book. While Blaug's book is a decent solid survey, the only work which begins to rival Schumpeter's in erudition and incisiveness is Marx's Theories of Surplus-Value, which covers a narrower period. If you respect this book and *really* study it, the effort repays handsomely. Enjoy!

The beginnings of economic concepts in full detail.......2003-11-11

The objective of Schumpeter, one of the greatest economists of all times, is to portray in a very comprehensive detail, all the philosophical thinking that conduced to contemporary Economic Analisys, since the beginning of the ancient greek thought.

To me, that had a very great misconception about the works of Joseph Alois Schumpeter, this book was a revelation, be it for the immensity of his erudiction both as an historian, philosopher and economist, be it for the ingenuity in which he presents many new ideas and perspectives regarding economic analisys.

He is sometimes difficult to follow, not helped by the many and extensive footnotes he appends the book with, and by the many quotations he does in foreign languages, which he usually do not translate, be it in ancient Greek, Latin , French or German. Also , the book was unfinished in his lifetime and had to be edited by his wife, who was also deceased before the full completion of the giantic task. Even so, the book has some 1.300 pages and covers the full range of all the relevant economic thougth until the time of its publication.

A warning sign of caution must be addressed to the non-professional readers not not fully interested in the magnitude of such a scope, that is, of addressing the formative ideas of each and every important concept in economic analisys in a so complete way. This can be an overkill for you. But if you are interested in Medieval thought, the concepts exposed by , for instance, Saint Thomas and many others, this is a very good reading. Enjoy it

Complex and Sophisticated History of Economic Theory.......2000-11-18

The legendary History of Economic Analysis is without a doubt one of the greatest books of economic history ever written, but one should examine what kind of reading they're looking for before he or she embarks on this thousand page text. Schumpeter's unfinished history is divided into sections by ideology and time-period which is particularly useful but once you penetrate the well-organized table of contents, the writing becomes arcane and complex.

For a reader well-grounded in economic theory and history, I am sure that this is a bible; but for a curious reader interested in the history of economics (in a more political as opposed to theoretical perspective) this book may not be right. Highly footnoted and not very smooth writing, as well as obscure references to economists and theories results in a history that is very demanding of the reader. If you are looking for an economic history text that reads like From Dawn to Decadence you may be seriously disappointed, as I had been, but if you are a serious student of economics and are willing to spend the time to deliberate over Schumpeter's words then History of Economic Analysis is right for you.

THE masterpiece in history of economic thought.......2000-04-20

After the considerable success of his then only in germanpublished Little Sketch of Doctrines and Methods, and while he wasteaching at Harvard, Schumpeter started working on a book wich would cover the ground of Little Sketch an beyond. What began just as leisure would become THE masterpiece in History of Economic Thought. Schumpeter spent ten years in this colossal effort and unfortunately did not finish it before his death. Nevertheless, nowhere else you will find a book more powerful and more profound on this theme. By History of Economic Analysis Schumpeter means the history of efforts made in the pursuit of comprehending economic phenomena, from Antiquity to present; not a book on history of ideologies. Schumpeter places the authors in their times and contexts, and tries to understand how they proceeded in analysing economic reality. A must for anyone interested in economic theory, history and philosophy.

Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times, and Places (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)

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Filled with data-rich insights
Top quality analysis
A Careful and Honest Look at Alternative Drug Policy
An astonishing analysis of the dark side of public policy
Drug War Heresies

Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times, and Places (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)
Robert J. MacCoun , and Peter Reuter
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 052179997X

Book Description

This meticulously researched study represents the first effort to provide a nonpartisan and objective analysis of how the United States should approach the drug legalization question. It surveys what is known about the effects of different drug policies in Western Europe and what happened when cocaine and heroin were legal in the US a century ago. The book shows that legalization involves different tradeoffs between health and crime and the interests of the inner city minority communities and the middle class. The book explains why it is so difficult to accomplish substantial reform of drug policy.

Customer Reviews:

Filled with data-rich insights.......2006-05-30

I'll admit that any book with the work heresies in the title has an automatic advantage in peaking my interest, but this volume does so much more than merely entice. MacCoun and Reuter have done an amazing job of looking that drug prohibition from a new point of view. Frankly, despite the passage of a few years, I believe that this book is absolute essential if one hopes to really understand the controversy over the War on Drugs.

Rather than attempt a summary of the contents, let me simply point to three specifics as representative of the wealth of insight the reader will encounter. First, MacCoun and Reuter have expanded the typical dichotomous legalization v criminalization perspectives to include depenalization and commercialization. Counter the arguments of drug prohibitionists, depenalization does not seem to be inextricably intertwined with massive increases in the prevalence of drug use as is anticipated with legalization. Also, legalization may have less negative increases in prevalence without the accompaniment of commercialization. By adding these two considerations, MacCoun and Reuter enable expansion of the debate into potentially fertile areas for improving the consequences of prohibition.

Secondly, the careful analysis of the 48 negative consequences of prohibition and the related causal linkage to enforcement, illegal status, and use should be the focus of careful reflection by every reader. In many respects, the damage caused by the War on Drugs is a kind of collateral damage - unintentionally caused by the implementation of US prohibition efforts.

Thirdly, MacCoun & Reuter reconceptualize the total harmfulness of illicit drugs as the interaction of three factors: prevalence, intensity, and micro harm (i.e., user self-damage). Much of the criticism of drug prohibition deals with the extensive micro harm without equal weight being given to the total harmfulness to our society. The negative correlation between prevalence and micro harm is among the more interesting possibilities to consider.

In summary, it is quite difficult to imagine a more sensitive evaluation of drug prohibition that so carefully considers the US case in light of the European context and the historical experience with legal addictive substances (alcohol and tobacco). I cannot recommend this book more highly.

Top quality analysis.......2004-09-12

The 'War on Drugs' in the United States grew from a million dollar acorn absentmindedly planted by President Nixon to a thriving 18 billion dollar oak three decades on.

The outcome of the 'war' is not satisfactory. The prevalence of illicit drug use is down but the substances are still readily available for people who really want to use them. The collateral damage is alarming, including one of the highest per capita rates for imprisonment in the world and regular reports of ghastly mistakes by law enforcement officers.

This book presents a massively researched and dispassionate cost/benefit analysis of the likely effects of various forms of legalisation for the major categories of illicit drugs. The subtitle of the book signals that the conceptual framework is enriched by a survey the international experience in the control of prostitution, gambling, alcohol and tobacco as well as the illicit drugs.

Drug War Heresies is a really excellent source for a wide range of literature and for the standard arguments that are likely to be bandied backwards and forwards for some time to come. It is clearly written and it provides a model of policy analysis in a deeply controversial field where the authors articulate a position of their own without apparently biasing the analysis.

The centrepiece of their analysis is the estimation of the Total Harm from a drug as the product of Prevalence (number of users) x Intensity (average number of doses) x Harmfulness (harm caused by each dose). This is a complex equation because the intensity is not uniform in the drug-using population and the harms arising from particular levels of drug use depend on the public health provisions and other policies (such as policing) that are in place.

The highly nuance stance that they adopt calls for modest law reforms that would result in increased prevalence (more users) in conjunction with other policies which would moderate both the intensity of use and the harms that result from drug use. The harms include the cost of crimes to support expensive habits, and other costs that result from policing zero-tolerance prohibition policies.

The analysis is far from complete, partly because the financial costs and benefits cannot be calculated accurately, also because the attractiveness and the political feasibility of the options depends on highly subjective (and widely divergent) appraisals that different people apply to drug use and its consequences.

The authors concluded that there is very little likelihood in the near future for reform, even for cannabis. All the problems in the analysis favour the status quo. So far only one major political figure, the Republican Governor of New Mexico, was prepared to put the ball of reform into play in the political arena and he was rebuffed by the Democratic majority in his legislature. This was a most unfortunate outcome from a scientific point of view because some of the imponderables that dog the cost/benefit analysis might have been illuminated in the light of experience in one state.

After the authors put down their pens both terrorism and Iraq became major issues, hence the prospects for change in drug policy are even more dismal, partly due to the diversion of attention to other areas and partly on account of the deterioration in the civility of public debate in general. This does not detract from the value of this excellent book, merely from the impact that it is likely to have in the short term.

A Careful and Honest Look at Alternative Drug Policy.......2003-09-05

"In Drug War Heresies, Robert J. MacCoun and Peter Reuter ask whether drug prohibition makes sense and whether legalization might achieve a better balancing of the costs and benefits associated with drugs and drug policy. They draw on a broad range of social science literature, and they emphasize the lessons provided both by drug prohibition in other places and by prohibitions of other goods, such as alcohol and prostitution. In discussing this evidence, they raise most of the key issues that should be considered in evaluating drug policy. Their book is an excellent starting point for anyone who wishes to understand the debates about prohibition versus legalization.

MacCoun and Reuter make a compelling case that many evils typically attributed to drugs result instead from drug prohibition and its enforcement. According to their analysis, prohibition causes increases in property crime because users face elevated prices; increases in violent crime because traffickers cannot resolve disputes using the courts; diminishments of civil liberties owing to the difficulty of detecting crimes without natural complainants; increases in corruption of police and politicians; disruption of countries that produce coca and opium; diminishments of users' health because of poor quality control; increases in the spread of HIV because of prohibition-induced restrictions on clean needles; excessive restrictions on medical uses of drugs; and reductions in respect for the law bred by widespread violation of prohibition-among other consequences.

And yet the authors do not endorse legalization. They find great fault with the heavy emphasis on criminal sanctions in current U.S. prohibition, and they believe substantial deescalation to, say, the level of enforcement in western Europe, Canada, or Australia would diminish many of the harms of prohibition while causing only small increases in drug use. Still, they do not endorse legalization. Why not?

Their position rests on four arguments: that moving from weak, European-style prohibition to legalization would produce a substantial increase in drug use; that this increase would be a bad thing; that most of the benefits from legalization are achieved simply by deescalating prohibition; and that the effects of legalization are uncertain."

"The authors' basic points move in the right direction. They have done a great service in carefully, honestly, and scientifically considering both theory and evidence on the effects of alternative drug policies. Room remains for reasonable persons to disagree about certain pieces of evidence, but if more persons were to analyze drug policy as dispassionately as MacCoun and Reuter, both drug policy and the country would be in far better shape."

An astonishing analysis of the dark side of public policy.......2003-07-03

This is one of the most comprehensive, objective or "bi-partisan," and current studies available to the general public. Although it is indeed an academic study and is written to influence policymakers, the educated public can easily follow most of the arguments posited by MacCoun and Reuter. Both thinkers have extensive experience in the area of drug policy, both are senior consultants with RAND (Drug Policy Research Center) and have published a considerable amount of literature on the nature of drugs and drug laws. This dynamic text attempts a comparative analysis of vices, such as gambling and prostitution, with that of recreational drug use, including alcohol and tobacco. The purpose of this study is to research whether or not there are any correlations between vices and, if so - can they assist in our understanding of how to regulate drugs and the desires of individuals for drugs. For example, of the kind of comparisons made, is that of prostitution and gambling. Both are legal in Las Vegas, NV - both are thought to be harmful vices, nevertheless, the law has provided a place for them in a legal context - can the same be done for drugs? The text also evaluates extensively, the European models of drug law enforcement and treatment and compares them to America's own models of law and treatment. The authors do not offer any solutions to the drug problem, but what they have done is contribute a comprehensive study with an extensive and diverse amount of data on the subject, something of which has not been achieved as thoroughly as it has been done in this study. The authors also analyze many of the drug reformer's arguments and parse them for consistencies and/or inconsistencies; in the conclusion, they offer a sympathetic gesture to the reformer's contentions because the authors admit to realizing the inanity and harm current drug laws are causing society, but they do so cautiously. They realize that something "must change," but what? and the future can only hold speculations. This book is highly recommended.

Another interesting companion study is the Consumer Reports study that was released in 1972. It is comprehensive and treats the many aspects of the "drug problem" in America. See:

Breacher, Edward M. et al., Licit and Illicit Drugs: the Consumers Union report on narcotics, stimulants, depressants, inhalants, hallucinogens, and marijuana - including caffeine, nicotine, and alcohol. (Boston: Little Brown, 1972).

Drug War Heresies.......2002-01-27

Drug War Heresies may be the best book ever written about modern U.S. drug policy. Written by a psychologist and an economist, the authors draw on attempts to control other substances (such as alcohol prohibition in the U.S.) and exhaustively examine the alternative and experimental European drug policies that most American readers will find particularly useful. The authors are careful to not impose their values and beliefs into their work, instead focusing on the consequences of alternative drug policies. The result is a persuasive case for policy reform in America that is not doctrinaire. Required reading for all who are interested in illicit drug policy in America.

"China and the New World Order: How Entrepreneurship,Globalization, and Borderless Business Are Reshaping China and the World"

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Cooking With the Iron Rice Bowl
The most important book I read in the last 5 years
Is a new world order in the making?...It might just happen.
Insightful and Intelligent
Prepare for the Dragon Market - Winston Ma, Author of "Investing in China: New Opportunities in a Transforming Stock Market

"China and the New World Order: How Entrepreneurship,Globalization, and Borderless Business Are Reshaping China and the World"
George, Zhibin Gu
Manufacturer: Fultus Corporation
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 1596821078

Book Description

China is the world's number-one growth story now. But how is it that China has achieved such quick growth in this era? How is it that made-in-China products can flood the globe? Is a trade war going to happen? Or is a new world order in the making? This second volume of a trilogy-by Chinese journalist/consultant George Zhibin Gu-aims to answer these questions and more.

Today, more than a half-million overseas companies conduct business inside China. Learn about all the opportunities this exploding market presents, including banking, insurance, and stock market, as well as the yuan and trade and cross-border business issues. Moreover, it contains extensive studies on China's political-economic reform as well as evolving international relations.

This volume addresses eight key topics:

I. China's New Role in the World Development
II. The Yuan, Trade, and Investment
III. China's Fast-Changing Society, Politics, and Economy (in light of Chinese and global history)
IV. China's Banking, Insurance, and Stock Market Reforms
V. Chinese Multinationals vs. Global Giants
VI. The Taiwan Issue: Current Affairs and Trends (federation as an alternate way for unity)
VII. India vs. China: Moving Ahead at the Same Time
VIII. The Japan-China Issue: Evolving Relations in Light of History

Today, all nations increasingly rely on one another for development, a trend that will only strengthen as time passes. As a saying goes, "The future is being shaped today." This book will appeal to readers everywhere regardless of their particular interests.

Customer Reviews:

Cooking With the Iron Rice Bowl.......2007-03-27

Part reference, part musing, part insightful and timely analysis, George Zhibin Gu's latest book "China and the New World Order: How Entrepreneurship, Globalization, and Borderless Business are Reshaping China and the World" is a welcome and refreshing read among the endless new titles printed on China today.

Picking up on a focus of his previous book "China's Global Reach...," Gu goes further and identifies the chief impediment to China's latest and perhaps most difficult transition as the Chinese state itself. Gu reveals the seemingly historical inevitability of China's vast government apparatus but explains that Communist Party bureaucracy is unique in Chinese experience in the size and scope of its all-encompassing control.

In topics relative to today's readers Gu ably demonstrates through the book that changes in China come from the revived entrepreneurial instinct of the Chinese. Along with huge foreign investment China's ever-growing private sector is the outside influence that is challenging Chinese bureaucracy as never before. But while the Chinese people struggle to create a law-based society and break the bureaucracy's grip on all aspects of economic life, the Chinese state seeks an equal footing among world national powers.

"China and the New World Order" is nicely segmented into short but highly relevant chapters. As in his earlier works Gu deftly examines the pros and cons of numerous hot-button issues on China. For example he takes on the Taiwan - China knot and proposes an interesting solution, a federation or federal system as a means toward meaningful (and mutually beneficial) reunification although his federal system shares more similarity to a commonwealth in the opinion of this reviewer. Gu's look at delicate state of Japan and China relations reveals that Japan remains as apprehensive over Chinese growth and potential as it was in the past. In examining the India versus China debate Gu shows that there is far less competition (as Western press prefers to portray it) and more similarities between the two giants of Asia.

There is plenty of current information here and the detailed contents and summaries make the book a good quick reference for anyone with an interest in what's happening right now in China. And there are goodies such as a lengthy interview with Mark Mobius and a foreword by Hoover Institute fellow William Ratliff.

At one point in his analysis, Gu intriguingly compares the struggle in China to the old European church-state alliance. With that view in mind, what may be needed next and with luck what Chinese entrepreneurs may succeed in bringing is a Chinese "Glorious Revolution."

The most important book I read in the last 5 years.......2006-12-25

This new book from Dr. George Zhibin Gu is a geo-economics and geopolitical masterpiece from an insider, someone that thrives his consulting work and daily life inside China, not writing or comment from a comfortable chair in London or New York paid by a western think tank, or only for academic proposals. His challenge is to write for a broad audience out of China. I must refer his clever suggestions about Taiwan - a political proposal for a a federation - and the way he sees the go global from Chinese emergent multinationals. It is needed a lot of courage for an insider to be so clear in his proposals and to identify the old Chinese problem - bureaucracy, the same that stopped admiral Cheng Ho and the Discoveries in the XV Century, that closed China for so many centuries and gave an opportunity for foreign powers to humiliate China, hyper-bureaucracy that in the Mao period pulled China for chaos and economic and social distress. China and the New World Order is a must reading. Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues, editor of www.gurusonline.tv and translator of Made in China (published in Portuguese language).

Is a new world order in the making?...It might just happen........2006-12-15

Base on the number of book in relation to this matter so far I believe that no one has come close to capturing "new China's" spirit and meaning as Gu. After reading his second volume I found it to be hugely insightful on the current events of China and global affairs. It greatly explores the key factors that shape Chinese and global development in the next stages. It gives tremendous info and analysis on the Chinese government, politics, business and economy for any one's interest.

There's a huge amount of info on foreign businesses inside China. You will be able to see about twenty five American and global multinationals inside of China that are studied. In the meantime it gives us a very provocative analysis on China's new role in the world. Gu details this general picture of how China is walking away from a practical society and embracing an open, restless and dynamic society. It claims that an overextended, self-appointed bureaucracy remains the key problem for China. To overcome countless technical barriers, greater openness, entrepreneurship and global involvement is all needed. Again, it's very insightful on the issues between China, Taiwan, Japan, India and West. I will add that his analyses on Japan-China line up are very interesting as well as Taiwan. There' a tremendous amount of info and analysis on China's financial, banking, insurance and stock market.

Author George Zhibin Gu is a very outspoken and a well known Chinese journalist who has generally covered mergers and acquisitions, capital activities, business expansion, and restructuring. He's an insider who gives us scrupulous examination on current China and global affairs which is more than a reason why you should grab hold to this book.

Insightful and Intelligent.......2006-12-11

George Gu provides a depth of understanding that distinguishes his work from most other business books. His wide network of contacts gives insight into emerging trends. He provides useful context that western authors often lack and Chinese authors frequently take for granted.

Prepare for the Dragon Market - Winston Ma, Author of "Investing in China: New Opportunities in a Transforming Stock Market.......2006-11-07

For the international investor community, "Investing in China" in the new century is more or less a one-way investment and capital flow. Mr. Gu's book, however, looks one step further to explore how all these interactions would reshape the global horizon, both for China and the rest of the world.

In fact, China's outward influence is increasingly obvious. For instance, whether China would diversify its foreign currency reserve -- and consequently whether China will enter into the gold market to hedge its US dollar exposure -- has profound implications in the global financial markets.

Comparing to many other books on China, Mr. Gu's book has a truly "authentic Chinese" flavor. The reason is obvious: He is an INSIDER. As a native Chinese, he captures the spirit of China's latest developments in its not-too-short historic context.

The Politics of Racial Inequality: A Systematic Comparative Macro-Analysis from the Colonial Period to 1970 (Contributions in Ethnic Studies)

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The Politics of Racial Inequality: A Systematic Comparative Macro-Analysis from the Colonial Period to 1970 (Contributions in Ethnic Studies)
J. Owens Smith
Manufacturer: Greenwood Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Book Description

This work covers new ground by presenting a systematic, comparative macro-analysis of the historical experiences of thirteen race and ethnic groups, with emphasis on their economic and political ties to government. It starts with the colonial period (Anglo-Saxons, French, and Scots-Irish) and extends to 1970, which can be considered the date at which civil rights legislation began to have a significant effect.

The U.S. Brewing Industry: Data and Economic Analysis

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Excellent Discussion of the Brewing Industry
Good Statistical Database and References

The U.S. Brewing Industry: Data and Economic Analysis
Victor J. Tremblay , and Carol Horton Tremblay
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0262201518

Book Description

This definitive study uses theory, history, and data to analyze the evolution of the US brewing industry from a fragmented market to an emerging oligopoly. Drawing on a rich and extensive data set and applying the theoretical tools of industrial organization, game theory, and management strategy, the authors provide new quantitative and qualitative perspectives on an industry they characterize as "a veritable market laboratory." The US brewing industry illustrates many of the important topics in industrial organization, economic policy, and business strategy, including industry concentration, technological change, brand proliferation, and mixed pricing strategies.

After giving an overview of the industry, Tremblay and Tremblay discuss basic demand and cost conditions and industry concentration. They describe the evolution of the leading mass-producing brewers and the emergence of both specialty brewers and imports. They analyze the history and the causes of product and brand proliferation (showing how product proliferation leads to firm dominance), discuss price, advertising, merger, and other management strategies, and examine the industry's economic performance. Finally, they discuss public policy, including anti-trust and public health issues. The authors' set of industry, firm, and brand data for the period 1950-2002 -- the most comprehensive data set of economic variables available for an oligopolistic industry -- will be available to purchasers of the book who send an e-mail request. Data sources are listed in an appendix. Robert S. Weinberg, a management strategy scholar and leading consultant to the brewing industry, contributes a foreword. This ambitious, authoritative work, capping the authors' 25-year study of the brewing industry, will be a valuable resource for industry analysts, economists, and students of industrial organization.

Customer Reviews:

Excellent Discussion of the Brewing Industry.......2007-06-26

Anyone interested in gaining an overview of the brewing industry in America -- history, economics, statistics -- could do no better than to start with this book. Those, like I, who are frustrated by the slipshod "analyses" that appear in the trade press, will find that this book will save them a great deal of time and grief. It is worth noting that the Tremblays are professors at Oregon State University and the book is published by the MIT Press.

The Tremblays do a fine job of integrating the history of the industry with an impressive set of industry data. As a result, the book is remarkably readable, and will be of interest to both the casual reader and those with academic and professional interests in the subject.

Chapter titles are as follows:

1. Introduction
2. Basic Demand and Cost Conditions
3. Industry Concentration
4. The Leading Mass-Produsing Brewers
5. Imports and Domestic Specialty Brewers
6. Product and Brand Proliferation
7. Strategic Behavior: Price, Advertising, Merger, and Other Strategies
8. Economic Performance
9. Public Policy Issues
10. Concluding Remarks, Forecasts, and Directions for Future Research
Appendix A Data and Sources
Appendix B Beer Containers
Appendix C Mergers, Ordered by Acquired Firm
Appendix D Alcohol Content, Standard Serving Size, and Blood Alcohol Concentration

Having come across Paul Kalmanovitz ("Beer Baron of the United States") and his minions several time in my career, I was particularly interested in those passages dealing with him strategies and tactics, and their impact on the industry.

I also found the discussion of antitrust issues useful.

The economic analysis is too quantitative for the casual reader, but there is not much of it, and the summaries at the end of each chapter do a great deal to clarify its meaning.

Highly recommended.

Good Statistical Database and References.......2007-01-04

This book, in my opinion, is one of the most successful intents to merge top-level Industrial Organization (IO) literature within a real industry. Through study cases, theoretical interpretation, and statistical database the authors describe the evolution of the U.S. Brewing industry. Highly recommended to be included in IO courses as part of empirical material to test standard, and some new, theories. References on both IO theory and Brewing Industry are exceptional. Why 4 stars instead of 5? Because the book lacks of basic theory developments, which are essential to any IO course.

The Unidad Popular and the Pinochet Dictatorship: A Political Economy Analysis

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The Unidad Popular and the Pinochet Dictatorship: A Political Economy Analysis
Patricio Meller
Manufacturer: Palgrave Macmillan
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Book Description

The Unidad Popular and the Pinochet Dictatorship covers the current political conflict facing the Chilean government of this century. The analysis of the Allende government examines the macroeconomic policies and structural reforms and its results; the questioning of property rights constituted a key issue of conflict. The analysis of the Pinochet government starts with a review of Chilean democracy breakdown. Then it examines the success, failure, and final success of economic structural reforms. The book ends with a discussion of the legacies of both governments. In the historical Chilean memory of the century, human rights violations will occupy a special place.

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