Investment under Uncertainty

Book Description

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending.

This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Customer Reviews:

Not a new theory,but a new way of solving Keynes's theory.......2004-07-23

Dixit and Pindyck(DP)have not come up with a new theory of investment. The three aspects that they deal with in their theory are the irreversibility of costly fixed plant and equipment,the uncertainty of the information base upon which the probabilities will be estimated,and the timing of the investment project over a series of future time periods.DP correctly point out that the NPV rule does not deal with the uncertainty of the information base upon which the probabilities will be calculated while also ignoring the question of the timing of a project,given that additional new relevant information on the potential expected profitability of a project may be forthcoming in future time periods.Thus, there is a value that can be assigned to waiting for this additional relevant evidence to occur in the future.The Net Present Value( NPV) rule or the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)only deals with risk,not uncertainty.Both of these rules assume the existence of a unique,well defined probability distribution that satisfies the law of large numbers.A decision maker need only concern himself with the variability of the outcomes over time. This is measured by the standard deviation.DP demonstrate that the standard approach to investment theory discounts only for time and risk while ignoring uncertainty or conflating uncertainty with risk.DP advocate an additional discount for uncertainty.DP obtain this result using the calculus of variations, optimal control theory,stochastic control theory and dynamic programming.These techniques,while interesting ,are not necessary in order to obtain the given result.A much less advanced mathematical approach was used by John Maynard Keynes to obtain approximately the same result.A criticism of this book would be the failure on the part of DP to mention the similarities between their theory and that of Keynes.Keynes's theory is covered in chapters 11,12 and 17 of Keynes's 1936 book ,titled the General Theory(GT).In chapter 17 ,Keynes makes a very important addition to the theory of the previously mentioned chapters on pages 239-241 where Keynes points out that the decision maker must also discount for uncertainty as well as for risk and time preference.Keynes's footnote on page 240 of the GT directs the reader to his technical model contained in chapter 26 of A Treatise on Probability, called a conventional coefficient of weight and risk c.In order to obtain approximately the same result as obtained by DP,one needed only multiply Keynes's NPV model of chapter 11 of the GT by the c coefficient.

real options.......2004-05-03

ok, i found this book is very important and give a new vision to understant the world of investement under uncertainty , further it demonstrate a new application nommed real options, by this new model we can making same decision with integrating the notion of flexibility in procesus of investement

Not For The Faint-Hearted.......2000-01-28

Investment Under Undertainty by Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck has been an important book in the 1990's because it introduced a relatively new subject to a new and eager audience when there was little else available outside of original research papers. Many of us are grateful to the authors for this introduction. However, newcomers should be aware that they omit large and crucial details of implementation [example: chapter 4, section 1H, pages 110-112 including the graphs on page 111: a newcomer will be lost; if you wait until the appendix to chapter 10, on numerical solution, then you may or may not note the printing errors]. The book is not for the faint-hearted beginner; even the simplest material, such as valuation of a perpetuity (see Corporate Finance by Brealey & Myers - very easy) occurs in a form which the beginner or skim-reading manager might not readily recognise (chapter 5, section 1A, pages 138-139); but then this book is not for them.

See also Real Options by Lenos Trigeorgis, who writes as if he keenly wants you to have fast access to his subject. For someone writing purely on the mathematical finance aspects, read anything by Paul Wilmott, who is clearly both clever and an exceptional educator

dealing with uncertainty.......2000-01-06

When searching for a framework for my PhD, I encountered Dixit's 1991 exposition on investmetn under uncertainty, in Journal of Economic Perspective. I was immeadiately hooked on option theory and its applications. Both authors of this splendid book are authorities in this field. The book is ideal for advanced MBA students with some mathamatics background. It is also suitable for PhD students in economics and finance. However students with math or engineering backgrounds may also benefit from reading this book.

As this book has repeatedly demonstrate, investmet in a uncertain world involves exercising an option. I mat asure the readers and buyers alike, investing in this book will yield high returns for your time and money.

State of the art -- but math is a required subject.......1999-08-24

Let me say that this is not a book for those looking for investment advice or get-rich-quick schemes. It is also not a book for those who think that an MBA and an HP12C are all you need to understand the basic theory behind investments, options, etc.

Book Description

How to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and do it in a reasonably nonmathematical fashion. Develops practical techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. Provides methods for reducing complex problems to easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), supported by real-world examples. Includes detailed cases that employ the methods described in the text. Each chapter contains illustrative examples and exercises.

Customer Reviews:

Excellent Reference.......2001-06-21

Using this text in conjuction with "Decisions with Multiple Objectives" by Keeney & Raiffa will give you a good application compliment to K&R theoretical work. Bard is geared to the applications. I used both these texts as part of my doctoral course Management Decisions in Engineering at Kennedy-Western University. It is a powerful combination for an in-depth statistical study of Decision Theory & Application.

Stochastic Dominance: Investment Decision Making under Uncertainty (Studies in Risk and Uncertainty)

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Stochastic Dominance: Investment Decision Making under Uncertainty (Studies in Risk and Uncertainty)

Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Numerical Methods in Finance and Economics: A MATLAB-Based Introduction (Statistics in Practice)

ASIN: 0387293027

Book Description

This book is devoted to investment decision-making under uncertainty. The book covers three basic approaches to this process: The stochastic dominance approach; the mean-variance approach; and the non-expected utility approach, focusing on prospect theory and its modified version, cumulative prospect theory.

These approaches are discussed and compared in this book. In addition, this volume examines cases in which stochastic dominance rules coincide with the mean-variance rule and cases in which contradictions between these two approaches may occur. It then discusses the relationship between stochastic dominance rules and prospect theory, and establishes a new investment decision rule which combines the two and which we call prospect stochastic dominance. Although all three approaches are discussed, most of the book is devoted to the stochastic dominance paradigm.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty With RISKOptimizer : A Step-To-Step Guide Using Palisade's RISKOptimizer for Excel

Average customer rating:

Software is 10 day trial version only
Great non-linear optimization tool
overall good examples, with exemption of option pricing ones

Decision Making Under Uncertainty With RISKOptimizer : A Step-To-Step Guide Using Palisade's RISKOptimizer for Excel
Wayne L. Winston
Manufacturer: Palisade Corporation
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 1893281019

Customer Reviews:

Software is 10 day trial version only.......2002-08-19

I was disappointed to discover that RISKOptimizer software included with this book was just a 10-day trial version. After that, you have to buy the $700 license for the software. For books like this, obviously aimed to a large extent at business students, it seems much more logical to include a reduced capacity version with a perpetual license, as other similar books do.

Great non-linear optimization tool.......2001-03-18

Anyone in operations will find something of value in this book. There is a good variety of problems, and good explanations of how to solve them. The book is accompanied with Palisade.com's Risk Optimizer software. Be sure to check their web site; they post updates to software, and they seem like a pretty good company to deal with, as well.

With his various books and software, Dr Winston really helps the business manager leverage his productivity.

overall good examples, with exemption of option pricing ones.......1999-10-05

The first impression from the book was great. There are really good examples of different optimization problems - product mix, manpower allocation etc. However, missing example files from the chapters on option pricing have ruined this good impression. Without the example files (that are supposed to be on the accompanying CD) the chapters loose a good portion of their value, as the historical data are missing, which is hard to recreate and check if you understand the material right. Another bad experience with the book is the fact that CD that came with the first book that I received was damaged and completely unusable. Thanks to the Amazon.com, they sent me the second copy of the book with a new CD free of charge. But the facts are that if you buy the book, you cannot be sure that the CD is usable, and if it is, then some of the example files will be missing. In my opinion, for the price they charge for the book, you could expect a little bit more quality.

Info-Gap Decision Theory, Second Edition: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty

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Info-Gap Decision Theory, Second Edition: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty
Yakov Ben-Haim
Manufacturer: Academic Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0123735521

Book Description

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts.

The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made.

This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.

* New theory developed systematically.
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* Realistic representation of severe uncertainty.
* Multi-faceted approach to risk.
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Collected Papers of Kenneth J. Arrow, Volume 3, Individual Choice under Certainty and Uncertainty (Collected Papers of Kenneth J. Arrow)

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Collected Papers of Kenneth J. Arrow, Volume 3, Individual Choice under Certainty and Uncertainty (Collected Papers of Kenneth J. Arrow)
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Manufacturer: Belknap Press
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Unlike the papers of some other great economists, those of Kenneth Arrow are being read and studied today with even greater care and attention than when they first appeared in the journals. The publication of his collected papers will therefore be welcomed by economists and other social scientists and in particular by graduate students, who can draw from them the deep knowledge and the discernment in selection of scientific problems that only a master can offer. The author has added headnotes to certain well-known papers, describing how he came to write them.

Book Description

This volume considers optimal stochastic decision processes from the viewpoint of stochastic programming. It focuses on theoretical properties and on approximate or numerical solution techniques for time-dependent optimization problems with random parameters (multistage stochastic programs, optimal stochastic decision processes). Methods for finding approximate solutions of probabilistic and expected cost based deterministic substitute problems are presented. Besides theoretical and numerical considerations, the proceedings volume contains selected refereed papers on many practical applications to economics and engineering: risk, risk management, portfolio management, finance, insurance-matters and control of robots.

Risk Management: With Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry (Springer Series in Reliability Engineering)

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Risk Management: With Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry (Springer Series in Reliability Engineering)
Terje Aven , and Jan Erik Vinnem
Manufacturer: Springer
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Book Description

Risk management is a decision-making process which considers political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard in order to develop, analyse and compare options to facilitate the selection of the optimal regulatory response for safety from that hazard. Rapid technological developments, organisational changes and increased demand for efficiency have all influenced the vulnerability of our society. As a result, safety and risk management is becoming an increasingly important field.

Risk Management with Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry presents an in-depth discussion of some fundamental principles of risk management, related to the use of expected values, uncertainty handling and risk acceptance criteria. A decision framework for risk management is developed that provides a structure for the classification of risk decision problems and a procedure for the execution of the related decision-making processes. Several examples from the offshore petroleum industry are included to illustrate the use of the framework, but it can also be applied in other areas.

With the inclusion of a risk management framework designed to achieve better decisions and therefore more desirable outcomes, Risk Management with Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry is a valuable resource for practitioners in the industry, engineering managers and regulatory authorities. Graduate students and researchers in risk management will find this book a comprehensive reference.

Consensus under Fuzziness (International Series in Intelligent Technologies)

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Consensus under Fuzziness (International Series in Intelligent Technologies)

Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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This work focuses on consensus formation in multiperson decision-making groups using imprecise information. The editors have solicited and organized important contributions on this subject from leading experts in the field. The well-known contributors include Ronald Yager, Henri Prade, George Klier, and János Fodor, among others. These contributions are original and are concerned with issues related to modeling and monitoring of consensus-reaching processes under fuzzy preferences and fuzzy majorities. The chapters include an array of paradigms, tools and techniques that can help develop new analytical tools for consensus-reaching processes.

Decision-Making under Uncertainty: An Applied Statistics Approach

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Decision-Making under Uncertainty: An Applied Statistics Approach
George K. Chacko
Manufacturer: Praeger Publishers
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0275935698

Book Description

In real-life decision-making situations it is necessary to make decisions with incomplete information, for oftentimes uncertain results. In Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Dr. Chacko applies his years of statistical research and experience to the analysis of twenty-four real-life decision-making situations, both those with few data points (eg: Cuban Missile Crisis), and many data points (eg: aspirin for heart attack prevention). These situations encompass decision-making in a variety of business, social and political, physical and biological, and military environments. Though different, all of these have one characteristic in common: their outcomes are uncertain/unkown, and unknowable. Chacko Demonstrates how the decision-maker can reduce uncertainty by choosing probable outcomes using the statistical methods he introduces. This detailed volume develops standard statistical concepts (t, x2, normal distribution, ANOVA), and the less familiar concepts (logical probability, subjective probability, Bayesian Inference, Penalty for Non-Fulfillment, Bluff-Threats Matrix, etc.). Chacko also offers a thorough discussion of the underlying theoretical principles. The end of each chapter contains a set of questions, three quarters of which focus on concepts, formulation, conclusion, resource commitments, and caveats; only one quarter with computations. Ideal for the practitioner, the work is also designed to serve as the primary text for graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in statistics and decision science.

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