Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Leadership for the Common Good)

Book Description

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs

This book shows why such “predictable surprises” put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.

There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it.

Customer Reviews:

Enlightening.......2007-08-27

The book jumps around but makes clear and valid points. A great eye opener! I would recommend this to students, leaders, informed citizens...just about anybody. I'm definitely getting more copies for friends and loved ones.

On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming.......2005-10-07

Anyone who has worked for some sort of organization, government agency, business, university or whatever, will empathise with "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins. This book focuses on the early and late warning signs, the cover-ups, the denials, and the eventual consequences of failing to take action to avert disaster. I've been in far too many situations where I observed that the peple "in charge" (really??) were blindsided by their own limited vision to the realities of what was happening within their organizations.

There are two "Predictable Surprises" that weren't included. First, Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath in New Orleans. Anyone visiting that city and talking with one's professional compatriates could have seen coming what unfolded before our eyes. The warning signs and studies were out there and ignored. That's why those who had a reasonable level of education left town and paid attention to the evacuation notices.

The other predictable surprise that was missed was the sex abuse scandal in the Roman Catholic Church. I'm Protestant but know a lot of fine Roman Catholic people. I heard things as long ago as fifty years and knew then that this situation was going to explode in the public domain. "Predictable Surprises" provides the principals that explain why this particular surprise was kept under the radar so long.

An outstanding book that should be read by everyone working in the corporate world, a government agency, a university, the military, or a non-profit organization. Your life may depend on knowing what's in this book.

Predictably bad.......2005-06-14

A major shortcoming of Bazerman and Watkins' book is the failure to provide adequate evidence to support their arguments about what they call "predictable surprises", which they define as "an event or series of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." Bazerman and Watkins build their case substantially on just two examples: aviation security failures leading to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and auditor independence concerns leading to the collapse of Enron and Arthur Anderson. Several other examples are discussed in less depth throughout the text, however many of these are not actually predictable surprises under the definition provided. For example, global warming is discussed a number of times; however global warming has been in public discussion since the 1930s, and today a substantial majority of people believe not only the concept of global warming but that current warming is man-made. By 2050, this subject will have been under study for 120 years and popular consensus will have been achieved for 50-60 years. This is certainly predictable, but hardly a surprise. The United States' looming crisis in entitlement spending also falls in this category.

Flaws exist in other anecdotal support as well. For example, Bazerman and Watkins cite aviation security failures as an occasion when overly discounting the future lead to a predictable surprise. Quick calculation based on figures provided in the book show that, using equal discount rates for the expected future cost of security and the future cost of disaster, even with a disaster probability as high as 10% for any given year, the airlines would be ahead on a cost basis. The total destruction of both World Trade Center towers and the massive ensuing death toll was not reasonably foreseeable by the airline industry; based on the typical passenger plan carrying 78 people, this was the equivalent of an absurd 41 simultaneous aircraft disasters! Given the cost of implementation and the low probability of such a large disaster, even at a full cost of nearly $50 billion, the airlines' decision to oppose security measures on a cost basis was reasonable. The full scope of this surprise was unlikely enough that it should not be termed "predictable."

Despite some good analysis of reasons predictable surprises occur and ways to avoid them, this book is critically weakened by its lack of evidence. Bazerman and Watkins try to make it stand largely on just the aviation security and auditor independence failures; however these are insufficient evidence for their broad analysis and conclusions, particularly given the weakness of those arguments provided. This book would be substantially more persuasive with more anecdotal support.

Predictably OK.......2005-05-11

In a world ruled by probability, all predictions eventually come true (no matter how impossible.) That said, ignoring the obvious can be disastrous, but the authors methods for prioritizing risk were disappointing.

Updating the March of Folly.......2005-02-23

The authors have found a memorable phrase to describe a depressingly common phenomenon - the occurrence of a disaster or failure that has been widely and often publicly predicted. The term `predictable surprise' will undoubtedly enter the managerial and political language.

They have provided a valuable analysis of why these predictable disasters occur and what can be done to prevent them (while recognizing that there are also such things as `unpredictable surprises' which can not be avoided through these processes).

The book is invaluable for the clear way in which it brings the elements together and for the vividness and immediacy of the examples chosen to illustrate the points. The result is a book that is very readable as well as being immediately useful, even if many of the points have also been made elsewhere by other authors. The book provides a template against which organizations can assess their defences against `predictable surprises', and I suspect that every organization will find gaps in its armour when it measures itself against the recommendations in the book.

The authors also use the book to mount a stinging attack on the failures of the American political system (and by extension those of other countries) and the need for fundamental reform. Their attack on the activities of the special interest groups and their direct responsibility for some of the worst disasters that the US has suffered is particularly pointed. One can only hope that the criticisms will be listened to and acted upon, and that politicians as well as business people will read and note them.

Throughout the book, the systemic, interconnected nature of the processes that lead to predictable surprises is very clear, but the authors do not, in my opinion, highlight the fact as strongly as they should. They do point out that depletion of international fisheries is a classic case of 'the tragedy of the commons', one of several archetypal forms of systems relationship, but virtually every example that the authors cite could well be illustrated with simple systems diagrams based on one or other of the classic 'systems archetypes'. Systemic issues require systemic solutions and the leverage for systemic change may be located well beyond the area of control of the immediate actors - another fact that shows up clearly in the course of the authors' examples.

It is probably no coincidence that I was strongly reminded of Barbara Tuchman's The March of Folly as I read the book. The perspective and coverage is different, but the themes of willful ignorance, willful inaction and willful pursuit of perceived short-term self interest as fundamental drivers of future disasters are common to both. If Tuchman were still alive, I would have confidently expected an analysis of Iraq to follow her masterful analysis of the Vietnam war, the American War of Independence and the drivers of the Reformation. In its own way, Predictable Surprises provides a contemporary update of the ways in which we continue the march of folly.

Navigating the Badlands: Thriving in the Decade of Radical Transformation

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Navigating the Badlands
Highly Recommended!

Navigating the Badlands: Thriving in the Decade of Radical Transformation
Mary O'Hara-Devereaux
Manufacturer: Jossey-Bass
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0787971383

Book Description

In this groundbreaking book, Mary O'Hara-Devereaux -- an internationally renowned business forecaster -- shows how organizations can hone their competitive edge during these uncertain times. Using the metaphor of traveling through the badlands of the American West, Navigating the Badlands offers the principles, tools, transformative strategies, and essential understanding executives and business leaders need if they are to weather the rugged, global business landscape of the future. Throughout the book O'Hara-Devereaux reveals how business leaders can seize the opportunity to create new value from successful alliances, reach global markets, and find top talent.

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Customer Reviews:

Navigating the Badlands.......2007-01-17

I have tracked the global environment for over twelve years and have learned much more about this environment by reading Mary O'Hara-Devereaux's book. In my opinion, it's a must read for educators and business professionals.

Highly Recommended!.......2005-04-11

Every few hundred years, the Western world takes itself apart and puts itself together again. Peter Drucker observed that this process of dissolution and reconstitution occurs so decisively that, afterward, people who live in the new world cannot even imagine the world of their parents or grandparents. Author Mary O'Hara-Devereaux believes that we are about three-quarters through a 75-year period of such disruptive innovation. She calls the transition "the Badlands." Like the barren Dakota Badlands of the Old West, they are a painful trial that makes or breaks people, and either way leaves them with a new sense of identity. The author identifies several distinct transitional pains for which she prescribes an equal number of palliatives. Her analyses and prescriptions can be thought provoking, though they are seldom trail blazing. While the book may be more smoke than fire, we find that smoke signals can be useful for the long-range vistas in the Badlands. (And, by the way, the author includes a chapter on China that seems almost as parenthetical as this sentence, though interesting enough. In reality, China looks like the pivot point of Badlands transitions, and how it comes through may affect how your neighborhood comes through, as well.)

The Portable MBA in Economics (The Portable MBA Series)

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A novel way to explain economics

The Portable MBA in Economics (The Portable MBA Series)
Philip K. Y. Young , and John J. McAuley
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Popular Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 0471595268

Book Description

This essential addition to the acclaimed Portable MBA Series contains an important group of concepts and skills in order to understand the business environment along with a framework for making business decisions. Demonstrates how to assess economic news and apply this information to business forecasting and such problems as pricing product and whether to initiate a marketing campaign. Features an economic tool kit which explains economic indicators, the Federal Reserve's role, foreign trade and exchange rates, how to analyze demand for a product and pricing cost benefit evaluation. Includes numerous examples and case studies.

Customer Reviews:

A novel way to explain economics.......2005-12-26

The authors have made a great effort writing this book, which is divided up in two parts: macro- and microeconomics. It gives insight of how we should understand current economic affairs on both the macronomical and micronomical levels. The book does serve this purpose quite well. I particularly liked the summary at the end of each chapter.
The book does however lack in solid economic theory, which makes this book inconsistent. If you are an economics student I would not recommend it for you to actually study economics (there are better books around for that), but merely as a reference to understand that theory is what you learn at univerity, and understanding the theory in practice comes usually afterwards.
The big lack of this book is that it is only based from an American point of view and thus is not very useful for anyone living outside the US. Even the international economics chapter won't satisfy your desire to really understand what's is actually going on (when you don't live in the US). What this book totally fails to point out is that the US economy is very different to most other economies in the world.
On the whole two stars were awarded for this book, as I think that it is very useful to help your understand the current economic affairs. At the same time it fails in providing solid economic theory, it is based far too much on the US economy, and it is incomplete on other parts. Yet, if you live in the US, are studying economics and want to understand what it all means in practice, this book will help you! If not, don't bother.

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Practical Business Forecasting
Michael Evans
Manufacturer: Blackwell Publishing Limited
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 0631220658

Book Description

Stressing the concrete applications of economic forecasting, Practical Business Forecasting is accessible to a wide-range of readers, requiring only a familiarity with basic statistics. The text focuses on the use of models in forecasting, explaining how to build practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. In a clear and detailed format, the text covers estimating and forecasting with single and multi- equation models, univariate time-series modeling, and determining forecasting accuracy. Additionally, case studies throughout the book illustrate how the models are actually estimated and adjusted to generate accurate forecasts. After reading this text, students and readers should have a clearer idea of the reasoning and choices involved in building models, and a deeper foundation in estimating econometric models used in practical business forecasting.

International Economic Indicators and Central Banks (Wiley Finance)

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For anyone with the need or interest to understand how international central banks work

International Economic Indicators and Central Banks (Wiley Finance)
Anne Dolganos Picker
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Econometrics | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 0471751138

Book Description

Praise for International Economic Indicators and Central Banks

"Anne Picker's International Economic Indicators and Central Banks is a tour de force. It brings together a wealth of information, explanation, and guidance, which has hitherto only been available from disparate and frequently obscure sources, and does so with great clarity and authority. It will be an invaluable resource not only for investors but for all others involved in the fields of finance and economics."
--Donald R. Anderson, OBE FRSE (UK), International Economics Advisor, formerly chief economist, Courtaulds Group

"Picker's book provides a comprehensive and up-to-date guide to the workings of key central banks, and to the economic data that informs their thinking and policy formation. The book should be required reading for those with more than a passing interest in financial markets and monetary policy formation."
--George Worthington, Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, Thomson-IFR (Australia)

"International Economic Indicators and Central Banks is an invaluable guide for anyone doing business overseas or investing in international markets. It is thorough and precise enough for professional economists yet readily accessible to business people and investors. Anne Picker is not only an excellent communicator who demystifies central bank operations and technical economic indicators; she is also a top-notch economist with extensive experience in analyzing them. Don't read any international economic analysis without this volume close at hand."
--David A. Levy, Chairman, The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center

Customer Reviews:

For anyone with the need or interest to understand how international central banks work.......2007-03-11

If you need to understand how central banks function in the major economic markets around the world (European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Canada, and China), this book is for you. You might invest in overseas markets, your company might be working with overseas partners or considering expansion to new markets, or you might simply be interested in better understanding the economic events you read in the news. For us, Anne Dolganos Picker has done a wonderful service with this book.

In the first part of the book (the first seven chapters), she gives us an overview of central banks in the world today and then a specific chapter on each of the six central banks being discussed. We learn a bit about their history, their independence (or not), their transparency (or not), what they have been charged with doing (price stability or currency valuation or whatever - they are not all the same), if their objectives have been changed over time, and their track record over time in achieving those objectives.

The second part of the book looks at the economic indicators used by those various central banks in making their decisions and if those indicators are available to the public, by subscription, or not at all (China being the most closed). The United Kingdom is the most open while others are open or closed to mixed degrees. It is important to understand what these banks are tasked with doing, what their favored indicators are in order to try and get a feel for what actions they are likely to take.

Another reason to learn about these indicators is that even measures with the same names such as GDP or CPI are defined differently in different countries. For example, the unemployment rate in Germany is reported two ways, by the way the Germans measure it and by the European standard. This is because the country and the EU define employment differently. Base years for these measurements are not synchronized around the world, either. This can make comparability of changes in these measures difficult to compare without careful adjustment.

I found the book fascinating and was pleased with how clearly the author wrote the book. This subject could have easily melted down into impossible to understand jargon, but she kept it surprisingly lively. Appendix A is a terrific list of the key indicators by country and the issuing agency for each indicator (and if they are available on the web). Appendix B compares the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) used by the United States versus the System of National Accounts (SNA) used in most other countries. Appendix C discusses the various Industrial Classification Systems (which have a big impact on the usability of certain manufacturing and labor statistics and for comparison across nations). And there is a very useful glossary and index.

This is a terrific book and I am glad to have it on my shelf and expect to refer to it with regularity.

Paradigms: Business of Discovering the Future, The

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Pioneers
A Book for winners
Spotting a Paradigm Shift - That could be the Real Secret Weapon towards Success
Very good book on "mental models"
Snake oil for corporate America

Paradigms: Business of Discovering the Future, The
Joel A. Barker
Manufacturer: Collins
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0887306470

Book Description

How would like to spot future trends before the competition?

We all know the rules for success in our business or professions, yet we also know that these rules--paradigms--can change at any time. What Joel Barker does in Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future is explain how to spot paradigm shifts, how they unfold, and how to profit from them. Through the power of this method--paradigm spotting--you can:

find the people in your organization most likely to spot a new trend
help your key people adept when a massive change is occurring
learn to effectively grapple with your "intractable problems" and improve your results incalculably.

In addition, Paradigms is full of concrete examples of paradigm shifts and predictions for the future, and contains a new introduction detailing recent developments and pointing out areas to watch tor paradigm shifts.

Customer Reviews:

Pioneers.......2007-07-18

I had the oppotunity to see a video on Paradigms. I bought this book as I have work colleagues who wil not move.(their way is best) I read the book thouroughly and enjoyed it very much and will pass it onto my colleagues.
Having read the book I am convinced I am a pioneer who cannot get past the settlers. If you want to improve, read it.

A Book for winners.......2007-01-10

Joel Arthur Barker brings you greater insights in how paradigms operate within the coorporate world of today. He gives you understanding of different peoples approach to changes and how to take advantage of the invetible major paradigmshifts that occur in every decade. He helps you shift your thinking as a leader regarding a small group of employees - the ones who can see paradigmshifts coming.
A fantastic book that raises your level of understanding in so many areas.

Spotting a Paradigm Shift - That could be the Real Secret Weapon towards Success.......2006-07-15

Paradigms are around us everywhere. They are difficult to recognize because we become used to the things that we believe are the standards.

In the current world, where "the only thing that is constant, is change" being able to spot a paradigm change in order to adapt and take advantage of it before the competition, it what can make you a real asset for your company. This book tries to teach us how to identify paradigms through many real life examples from the corporate world.

Sound confusing and subjective, and it is, but is just evolution. Adapt to changes in order to survive. But what if you don't want just to survive, but to be successful,... well then you have to be the one breaking the rules. For that, you have to learn the business of discovering the future, and that is what this book is about.

Very good book on "mental models".......2006-05-31

This is a good book for many reasons.

It really challenges our conventional ways of thinking. I found it quite enjoyable. There are many great paradigm examples given: the swiss watchmakers losing marketshare, long distance runners overcoming the 26 mile barrier.

This book allows the reader to identify paradigms and through that understanding spot them as they are occurring. This understanding is most valuable in business and life.

A great read, highly recommended.

Snake oil for corporate America.......2005-03-10

A useful tool to try and get people to accept ideas (usually bad ones). To shift your paradigm (knowledge filter) means to a) roll with the punches b) free yourself from independent thought or c) goose step...right...left...right....left... There are plenty of used copies! HR people love this approach because it gets the American worker to do HR's job for them, ie. brainwash herself/himself into accepting lousy ideas that will hurt the average American in the long run.

Average customer rating:

Marketing Propaganda
A lot to pay for an advertisement
Disappointing
A little less chest thumping please
Breath of fresh air

Beating the Business Cycle
Lakshman Achuthan , and Anirvan Banerji
Manufacturer: Currency
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Economic History | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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The All-Season Investor: Successful Strategies for Every Stage in the Business Cycle

ASIN: 0385509537
Release Date: 2004-05-18

Book Description

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed?

The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.

In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.

Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.

Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?

Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

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How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can't. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating the Business Cycle shows you how.

In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.

Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI's forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the "secret weapon" of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.

Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy's future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?

Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

"Would it help you decide when to leave a job, buy a house or step up your investing, if you had a good feel for when business was about to turn up (or down)? It sure will help me. This easy-to-read book tells you how the respected ECRI calls turning points, and how you can, too."
   JANE BRYANT QUINN, NEWSWEEK COLUMNIST

"While 95% of economists failed to predict the start and end of the last recession, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji got both right. Beating the Business Cycle shows just how far the state of the art in cycle forecasting has advanced, and how investors can profit from it."
   JON MARKMAN, AWARD-WINNING CNBC/MSN FINANCIAL COLUMNIST

"Read this jewel of a book and enter your own personal cyclical upswing."
   JAMES GRANT, EDITOR, GRANT'S INTEREST RATE OBSERVER

Customer Reviews:

Marketing Propaganda.......2007-07-29

This book is nothing more than a marketing pamphlet for the author's services that cost an exorbitant amount of money. They repeatedly tell you how other forecasters and economists fail where they succeed. How other forecasters and economists continually suffer from "attribution bias" blaming their failures on uncontrollable events while taking full credit for their successes. However, they also attempt to explain away the failure of their indexes to successfully predict economic shifts, and therefore also suffer from attribution biases.

A lot to pay for an advertisement.......2006-09-06

You pay for a book, you expect some information. This book sings the praises of ECRI's numbers, then tells you how to buy them.

Disappointing.......2006-07-18

I bought this book thinking it will explain business cycles, what causes them, and how to forecast them. Unfortunately, the book does not do any of that. Instead the authors keep telling the reader again and again that they are the only people who know business cycles and the only way to understand and forecast business cycles is to subscribe to their website. Beside that, I learned very little from this book.

Although the authors are respected researcher in the area of business cycles, their book is a disappointment. It is more of an advertisement for the authors.

The best book I have seen on business cycles is:
"Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles", by Todd A. Knoop.

If you are interested in business cycles for the purpose of investing and asset management, I recommend the following books:
1. "The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation", by Pring.
2. "Using Economic Indicators to Improve Investment Analysis", by Tainer.
3. "Timing the Market", by Weir. (this book is not about business cycles, but a very good book for market timing)

A little less chest thumping please.......2006-04-01

I like this service, their method and the results but I was a bit put off by the amount of time spent in this little book talking about how well they've done in the past without enough discussion of the methods they employ. Their focus on the data without any philosophical axe to grind is admirable. Their method provides a fine tour of recent economic history. It would have been interesting to hear a discussion of that history in the context of examining that data.

Breath of fresh air.......2006-02-13

After getting sick and tired of all the hot air that economists spew, this book gave me some hope for the dismal science. Yes the authors discuss how their calls were correct, but I see this as a necessary part of the story being told, i.e., that through the prism of good leading indexes for growth, inflation and jobs, the wild and crazy path that the economy has taken over the past few years is understandable, and more importantly, not a surprise. I'm torn as I write this review as I might be better off as an investor if others did not read this book! Still, their advice on how to use the Weekly Leading Index to make better decisions is an important gift to society.

FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change

Average customer rating:

Paradigm shift
What can be said about 37.2% of the book
Thinking Clearly
This book could actually solve a problem for you
A must read if you're interested in the future!

FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change
Edie Weiner , and Arnold Brown
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World
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ASIN: 013185674X

Customer Reviews:

Paradigm shift.......2007-10-07

About half-way through the book and it was a true eye-opener. It's very generic in its focus but applicable to all of life. I will enjoy the rest of this book. God bless!

What can be said about 37.2% of the book.......2007-02-24

A zippy-cool buzzword infested hypen fiesta! The outline and subject index is the best part. It's high on conceptological hyperbole and saturated with obscurely relational compound words and grammatical structures with "-" in them.

A favorite has to be the first chapter lead off future think stimulator ... remember that old "vase or face?" picture? Imagine that we future-think that idea into a vase/face vice face/ground psycho-perceptual model ... Voila! ... the higher concept, 21st century "face and ground illustration". I think I was always able to see both the face and the vase in the 20th century but I might be mistaken. This is a must have book for .ppt jocks and leadership-by-platitude aspirants.

The book received great reviews by Amazon readers so I took faith and invested in a copy. I've picked this book up, read a bit and put it down at least 4 or 5 times over the last 4 months. I stopped at page 87 (of 234 pages of text) ... I passed it on to someone who might actually use the stuff in some managerial way ... I can't wait! or maybe he'll just carry the higher-plane entitled text around so his boss and peers might think he's becoming more stratigical.

Thinking Clearly.......2007-01-10

Future Think - is a significant book for anyone wishing to think clearly about business or personal ventures in our currently changing world. It provides new insights, expands thinking and assists in overcoming the mind traps that sometimes plague us all. I recommend this book for anyone who is seriously seeking to develop foresight for a business or experience a higher quality of life. The book is very well written and provides examples that clearly illustrate the major points.

This book could actually solve a problem for you.......2006-11-02

On page 229 Mr. Weiner brings up God: "If you want to make God laugh, goes an old business adage, show Him your plan." The author's tools will not, of course, eliminate His laugh, but they could help you make the laugh shorter and softer so that your confidence is not destroyed when you hear from Him.

A must read if you're interested in the future!.......2006-03-26

This book is really a must read if you're at all interested in the future and are looking for ways to better identify and understand trends than may impact you and your organization. Highly recommended as a useful tool in your leadership toolbox.

Building Global Biobrands : Taking Biotechnology to Market

Average customer rating:

A Good Read!
A wide and clear-sighted Bio-Business panorama
Outstanding and Insightful
A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW OF BIOTECH AND PHARMACEUTICAL MARKETING
Building Global Biobrands: de rigueur for biotech business

Building Global Biobrands : Taking Biotechnology to Market
Francoise Simon , and Philip Kotler
Manufacturer: Free Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Building Biotechnology: Starting, Managing, and Understanding Biotechnology Companies - Business Development, Entrepreneurship, Careers, Investing, Science, Patents and Regulations
From Alchemy to IPO: The Business of Biotechnology
Science Business: The Promise, the Reality, and the Future of Biotech
Drugs-From Discovery to Approval
The Biotech Investor: How to Profit from the Coming Boom in Biotechnology

ASIN: 074322244X

Book Description

From medicine and defense to food and cosmetics, biotechnological breakthroughs are creating huge new global market opportunities as well as unprecedented challenges. Companies from mega-pharmaceuticals to infotech giants and biotech start-ups must radically rethink their business models. In the first book on the business of biotechnology, Françoise Simon and Philip Kotler combine their biotechnology and marketing ex-pertise to show managers how to innovate with bionetworks, win customers with biobrands, and create sustainable advantage worldwide.

Simon and Kotler explain in clear nontechnical prose how innovation in the new biosector will be driven by a web of cross-industry collaborations, and in particular by three transforming forces: information technology, consumerism, and systems biology. With timely industry cases, the authors demonstrate that by capitalizing on these forces, companies from Hitachi and Siemens to Amgen and Pfizer could become the biotech leaders of the coming decades.

The chapters on building and sustaining biobrands are the centerpiece of this indispensable book. Simon and Kotler present a powerful framework that will enable any manager to redefine and transform traditional models into a new branding paradigm: the global "targeted" model as an alternative to the global "mass market" model. The authors illustrate how each of these models has proven successful in launching such blockbuster drugs as Viagra, Lipitor, Rituxan, and Gleevec.

Relevant to all industries impacted by biotechnology from consumer goods to industrial products, Building Global Biobrands is essential reading for every manager, marketer, analyst, and consultant who must understand the Biotech Century.

Customer Reviews:

A Good Read!.......2004-05-06

This book, exhaustively researched and daunting to read, sums up all of the most important forces likely to concern a biotech marketer. The authors take a dispassionate, methodical approach, buttress their points with plenty of case evidence and examples, clearly have a grasp of the subject and communicate detailed knowledge of great value to those in the field. Unfortunately, their style is plodding and clinical, replete with passive constructions and impersonal, generally soporific sentences. We believe that those with a real need to know will be glad to brew some strong coffee and grateful to stay the course and become so thoroughly updated. Readers who are intrigued by the field - but not immersed in it - will benefit most from reading the introduction, the first three chapters and the conclusion.

A wide and clear-sighted Bio-Business panorama.......2004-03-01

Françoise Simon and Philip Kotler provide us a concentrate analyse stressed on key-moving-drivers on the Bio-sector. They gave us a wide overview, from R&D leading trend to Marketing implementation and License & Acquisition Business. The two main strengths of this book are the numerous real case studies exposed and the international insight of the whole study(including Europe and Japan).
This book will interest Executives involved in Business Development, Bio-strategy or smart fox wondering what the Bio-sector will look in the fast coming years. This book is different because exhaustive and balanced between Biotech and Big-Pharmas Business model. A unique tool to keep and read again!

Outstanding and Insightful.......2003-10-25

This book is an outstanding resource for anyone in the pharmaceutical or biotechnology industries - or anyone interested in investing in those industries. It provides a wealth of information that cannot be found elsewhere. The analysis of alternative strategies for building stronger product markets is very thorough.

A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW OF BIOTECH AND PHARMACEUTICAL MARKETING.......2003-09-30

This is a very smart book: it is valuable for professionals in all aspects of health care who seek an insight into the global pricing and marketing of medical therapies.

Though not biological scientists, Simon and Kotler impart their treatise with a savvy academic outlook blended with lessons learned in the consulting arena. The authors show an amazing scholarship. They combine knowledge derived from personal acquaintance with key players in the biotechnology and classical pharmaceutical industry with an understanding of the medical applications and implications of drug therapies to weave a rich tapestry of a very complex topic.

Their view ranges from:
· a discussion of the history, politics and costs of biotechnologic research;
· the pricing of new drugs to allow both access and cost recovery (Novartis' introduction of GleevecR);
· the evolution of Big Pharmas' ( e.g. Pfizer, Merck) alliances with smaller bio-tech firms to find innovative therapies,

to the techniques used to maintain brand franchises as patent protection is lost. (Over-the-counter Advil remains a viable brand.)

They are able to keep readers' interest high by providing concise and lively vignettes of many developments in the history of drug introduction and marketing. Among these, they cite:
· Pfizer's promotion of late-entrant LipitorR to become the victor in the statin "races";
· Johnson & Johnson's brilliant recall of TylenolR following deaths due to product tampering and its ability to maintain the brand's prominence for over 30 years; and
· Pfizer's consumer-driven shaping of the market for ViagraR by creating erectile dysfunction as a new clinical entity.

The future appears to be in the realm of biotechnology with strong BigPharma participation. Whatever the new environment, the basic principles of marketing described in this volume will hold true.

Building Global Biobrands: de rigueur for biotech business.......2003-09-29

Professors Simon and Kotler have done a great job in capturing many of the latest trends in the biotech world, and its continued fusion with the pharmaceuticals business. The thesis of the book is well laid out, and especially useful are the hundreds of company examples and detailed case studies that are used to prove the points.

The book spans the value chain, and offers insights at several levels. I suggest anyone with an interest in the biotech world -- venture capitalists, regulators, entrepreneurs, pharmaceutical company executives, individual investors -- have a reference copy. You will find it to be invaluable!

Forecasting Methods for Management
Average customer rating:
Forecasting Methods for Management
Spyros G. Makridakis , and Steven C. Wheelwright
Manufacturer: John Wiley & Sons Inc
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0471600636

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