Contrarian Investment Strategies in the Next Generation
Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
  • One of the few investments books that proves its arguments
  • Value Investing Handbook
  • A must-read
  • pretty good book
  • The proof is in the puddin
Contrarian Investment Strategies in the Next Generation
David Dreman
Manufacturer: Simon & Schuster
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0684813505

Amazon.com

All stock-market investors embrace the motto "Buy low, sell high." Few act accordingly, however, for to do so would require that we go against the crowd, buying stocks that are out of favor and selling Wall Street's darlings. Powerful psychological forces prevent us from pursuing a contrarian investment strategy, although it consistently beats the market, according to David Dreman, a seasoned money manager and long-time columnist for Forbes magazine. One of the Street's best-known and most articulate contrarians, Dreman has updated his 1982 investment classic, Contrarian Investment Strategies, using recent research on investor psychology. His revised book combines proven techniques for selecting undervalued stocks with fresh insights on how to defy, and thereby profit from, the popular fears or enthusiasms of the moment.

Dreman pays only cursory attention to a company's business fundamentals in deciding whether to invest in it. Instead he looks for stocks trading at below-market multiples of per-share earnings, cash flow, book value, or dividend yield. Historically, Dreman claims, stocks that are cheap by any of these measures have tended to outperform the market average, although this is disputed by those who believe the stock market is efficient and therefore impossible to beat except by accident. Dreman devotes many pages to debunking their research. He offers a new refinement of his low-price strategy, which involves picking the cheapest stocks within industries, to create a diversified, contrarian portfolio.

Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation is full of practical and provocative advice, but some of its most interesting passages delve into the abstruse findings of cognitive psychology. This research has proven that we are woefully inadequate as intuitive statisticians. Interpreting data to make predictions about the probability of future events, we consistently make the same mistakes. For example, we exaggerate the likelihood that current trends will continue, even when they are historically exceptional. (Logic dictates that trends are more likely to regress toward the mean.) This fallacy explains why most Wall Street insiders were gloomiest about stocks in 1981, after six years of falling prices, just before the beginning of the greatest bull market ever. Is today's widespread optimism among investors a reason for caution? Dreman thinks so.

It seems our brains are hard-wired to underperform the market. That's why few investors can keep to a contrarian approach. Dreman recommends buying stocks when prices fall, the worse the panic the better. But that requires overriding powerful instincts.

Besides reflecting Dreman's wide reading in finance, psychology, and history, his book also displays his sometimes windy and self-important writing style. At 464 pages, the book is not a quick read. But its intellectual depth and thoroughly tested advice make many other investment books look paltry and superficial by comparison. Serious, independent investors will find it rewarding. --Barry Mitzman

Book Description

David Dreman's name is synonymous with the term "contrarian investing," and his contrarian strategies have been proven winners year after year. His techniques have spawned countless imitators, most of whom pay lip service to the buzzword "contrarian," but few can match his performance. His Kemper-Dreman High Return Fund has been the leader since its inception in 1988 -- the number one equity-income fund among all 208 ranked by Lipper Analytical Services, Inc. Dreman is also one of a handful of money managers whose clients have beaten the runaway market over the past five, ten, and fifteen years.

Now, as the longest bull market in the history of the stock market winds down, there is increasing volatility and a great deal of uncertainty. This is the climate that tests the mettle of the pros, the worries of the average investor, and the success of David Dreman's brilliant new strategies for the next millennium.

Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation shows investors how to outperform professional money managers and profit from potential Wall Street panics -- all in Dreman's trademark style, which The New York Times calls "witty and clear as a silver bell." Dreman reveals a proven, systematic, and safe way to beat the market by buying stocks of good companies when they are currently out of favor. At the heart of his book is a fundamental psychological insight: investors overreact. Dreman demonstrates how investors consistently overvalue the so-called "best" stocks and undervalue the so-called "worst" stocks, and how earnings and other surprises affect the best and worst stocks in opposite ways. Since surprises are a way of life in the market, Dreman shows you how to profit from these surprises with his ingenious new techniques, most of which have been developed in the nineties. You'll learn:

Based on cutting-edge research and irrefutable statistics, David Dreman's revolutionary techniques will benefit professionals and laymen alike.

Customer Reviews:

5 out of 5 stars One of the few investments books that proves its arguments.......2007-09-28

I was bummed out before I read this book- had just read A Random Walk Down Wall Street and had become a believer in a)the efficient market hypothesis and b)the inability to beat the market over the long term.

Then comes this book. Chapter by chapter, Dreman dissects efficient market arguments that I saw as fact and showed that they were folly. Dreman states that the market is not efficient because investors are many times not rational. In fact, they are predictably irrational. And then Dreman gives data to prove this. He presents research to show that investing in a certain way allows you to beat the market.

And he gives more research and data. And more, and more. Some people will complain that this is boring and overwhelming, but he does so to prove the validity of his methods. I've read many investment books, and usually an author will give his guidelines for picking stocks, with return numbers taken at a certain point in time, and holding stocks for a certain period, and maybe a few other stipulations. And in the end, I never trusted the author enough to invest any real money in his strategy.

Not so with Dreman. The wealth of research convinced me that Dremans methods were not datamining and were not limited to certain market environments.

Its the most imporant investing book I have read. Dremans method is very similiar to value investing preached by a number of other famous investors. The difference is that Dreman proves to you through his research that value investing works. Everybody addicted to Mad Money and Jim Cramer needs to give this book a peek.

3 out of 5 stars Value Investing Handbook.......2006-08-30

Dreman makes a persuasive case here that the financial experts and analysts as well as the average investor are terrible in predicting which way the stock market is going. If you want to beat the market, you need to do the opposite of everyone else, by investing in currently out-of-favor value stocks with low P/E ratios.

To his credit, Dreman correctly forecast the big market crash of 2000-2002. Published in 1998, Dreman here observed that the market of the late 90's was way overpriced and that a major correction was in the works. He was correct, although the crash was 2 years off when this was published.

His whipping boy in this book, as in almost every other investing book on the shelves, is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). But in truth, his investing strategy does not contradict EMH. In its simplest form, EMH argues that, statistically speaking, the past movements of a stock have no significant relationship to its future movements. Dreman indeed agrees with this, and the assertion has never been disproved.

Dreman has lots of fun poking fun at the assertion of EMH that investors are rational and that current stock prices reflect all known information about the company. But the claim that investors are rational is not really controversial: all it adds up to is that investors seek to maximize returns and avoid losing money. Investors may act for poor reasons, but there is always a reason for the movement of a stock. There are good and poor reasons, but those only emerge in hindsight.

Dreman also says that Beta is completely worthless as a measure of risk and returns, and that may be true for individual stocks, but for mutual funds it's very useful. The Beta for a small-cap fund will be significantly higher than a large-cap value fund, and investors are generally rewarded for taking on that risk, at least in the long run.

All but the most extreme forms of EMH accept that stocks may be undervalued or overvalued *in the short run.* In the long run, the market is in fact completely rational. If it wasn't, there would be no point in investing in the market at all, since stock movements would be completely random. And if there are temporary irrationalities in stock prices, then it follows that investors can profit from those under- or overvaluations. Some theorists argue that it's not wise to try to beat the market, but most EMH theorists advocate a value strategy identical to Dreman's. See for example Larry Swedroe's excellent "The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need."

5 out of 5 stars A must-read.......2006-08-22

I have read this book three times now, and intend to do so again. Dreman is obviously an outstanding investor, and his strategies flesh out and arguably "modernize" the techniques used by the noted fundamental investor Benjamin Graham, who was the mentor to Warren Buffett (although, I might add, this book does not emphasize the study of financial statements, which is something Benjamin Graham did in painstaking detail).

Dreman's approach is most notable because of his use of investor psychology and his forceful rejection of the efficient market hypothesis. Instead, Dreman cites any number of studies and examples to support his main thesis: investors over-react to events, and those over-reactions create opportunities for savvy investors to make money. His approach involves a two-part strategy: first, preserve capital, and second, take advantage of market over-reactions to profit. His point is that the market is like a casino, but one in which the odds can favor a knowledgeable investor. In other words, no one can guarantee that a particular stock will do well, but over time, investors who follow a contrarian strategy will outperform the market generally.

Dreman's approach to investing is notably different than much of what is considered "conventional" wisdom within the financial markets (for a good contrasting view, read "Expectations Investing" by Rappaport and Mauboussin). In particular, Dreman takes the position that experts err predictably and often, and that humans base decisions on a minute portion of the information thrown at them. In this respect, his skepticism differs notably from some other authors (example: Mauboussin in "More than What You Know").

From this, he demonstrates how buying low p/e, high yielding, low price/book, and low price/free cash flow stocks results in higher-than-average returns. Dreman shows how favored stocks tend to underperform the market, while out-of-favor companies tend to outperform. However, reappraisal can happen slowly, even glacially.

I found this book to be both enjoyable and informative, and it inspired me to read a couple books about behavioral finance (Paulos, "A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market" and Belsky and Gilovich "Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them").

In all, I highly recommend this book to anyone who is interested in investing. A few other recommendations (other than those listed above) include:

Klarman - "Margin of Safety" (out of print)
Whitman - "The Aggressive Convervative Investor" and "Value Investing"
Greenblatt - "You Can be a Stock Market Genius" (horrible title, great book)
Graham - "Security Analysis" and "the Intelligent Investor"

Each of these books sets forth a somewhat different approach to investing, but at the core, each of them shares a skepticism of the principals underlying the efficient market hypothesis.

4 out of 5 stars pretty good book.......2006-03-16

The author is very knowledgeable on the subject but his prose could use some improvement - its hard to read more then 1-2 hrs at a time.

5 out of 5 stars The proof is in the puddin.......2006-03-11

Dreman does it again by reconfirming the findings he first penned before the huge bull market kicked off in the early eighties. Somehow through that whole era of wild dealmaking and internet pyrotechnics the strategies remained valid. Not only does the author make the often dry data highly readible with his
wit and humor, but I'll add that David Dreman's position as one of the great contributors to investment theory and literature is tremendously undervalued.
Contrarian Investment Strategies: The New Psychological Breakthrough
Average customer rating: Not rated
    Contrarian Investment Strategies: The New Psychological Breakthrough
    David Dreman
    Manufacturer: Free Press
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Hardcover

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    Bargain Hunters, Contrarians, Cycles and Waves (Secrets of the Great Investors)
    Average customer rating: Not rated
      Bargain Hunters, Contrarians, Cycles and Waves (Secrets of the Great Investors)
      Janet Lowe , and Ken Fisher
      Manufacturer: Blackstone Audio Inc.
      ProductGroup: Book
      Binding: Audio CD

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      ASIN: 0786165316

      Product Description

      Jean Paul Getty and John Templeton are great examples of “bargain hunters” or “contrarians,” who seek to find promising stocks that are out of favor or fashion—and therefore undervalued. Slightly different are those who study cycles and waves to determine regular and (hopefully) predictable patterns of favor and disfavor in the market.

      The Secrets of the Great Investors series is a collection of presentations that explain, in understandable language, the strategies, tactics, and principles that have produced great wealth, and how you can improve your financial future. History's greatest investors used powerful investing philosophies to produce superior results, and you can learn from their successes and mistakes.
      The Triumph of Contrarian Investing : Crowds, Manias, and Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain
      Average customer rating: 1 out of 5 stars
      • Disappointment
      • The Triumph of Contrarian Investing: Crowds, Manias & Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain
      • Too simplistic
      • Only for a beginner
      The Triumph of Contrarian Investing : Crowds, Manias, and Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain
      Ned Davis
      Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill
      ProductGroup: Book
      Binding: Hardcover

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      5. Contrarian Investment Strategies in the Next Generation Contrarian Investment Strategies in the Next Generation

      ASIN: 007143240X

      Book Description

      Contrarian investing--what it is, how it works, and why millions of successful investors see it as the only logical choice

      "(Davis is) one of the most widely respected technical market analysts operating today."

      --Louis Rukeyser

      Contrarians say that, when it comes to investing, the crowd is wrong more often than it is right--and prove it with their 200-year history of success! The Triumph of Contrarian Investing is a fascinating, in depth examination of the impact of crowd psychology on markets, how the crowd is often predictably incorrect, and how investors can use long-proven contrarian investing strategies to uncover tremendous buying and selling opportunities.

      Ned Davis, one of today's biggest names in investing, reveals:

      Download Description

      Contrarian investing--what it is, how it works, and why millions of successful investors see it as the only logical choice"(Davis is) one of the most widely respected technical market analysts operating today." - Louis Rukeyser. Contrarians say that, when it comes to investing, the crowd is wrong more often than it is right--and prove it with their 200-year history of success! The Triumph of Contrarian Investing is a fascinating, in depth examination of the impact of crowd psychology on markets, how the crowd is often predictably incorrect, and how investors can use long-proven contrarian investing strategies to uncover tremendous buying and selling opportunities. Ned Davis, one of today's biggest names in investing, reveals: * How to ignore the temptation to "join the crowd" and uncover tremendous opportunities * Consistent signs that a stock's price has been driven too high or too low * Strategies for protecting contrarian portfolios when - as sometimes happens--the crowd is right

      Customer Reviews:

      1 out of 5 stars Disappointment.......2007-02-19

      I have respect for Ned Davis as an analyst and this led to me buying his book.What a disappointment.Only 70 pages and the rest meaningless page after page of charts.I believe it is misleading to advertise a book of 188 pages and then only have 70 pages of content!! Buyer beware

      1 out of 5 stars The Triumph of Contrarian Investing: Crowds, Manias & Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain.......2006-06-26

      This book did not contain much information, only 70 pages of text. The rest of the book being made up of a series of graphs.

      The author frequently referred in the book to subscription research services he offers, as if the book was an advert.

      I was disappointed with this book.

      1 out of 5 stars Too simplistic.......2005-08-14

      Buyer beware...the book is padded in large part by graphs and data. The actual chapters are short and can be covered in a day...This is a beginner's book with little insights...Professional stay away!

      2 out of 5 stars Only for a beginner.......2004-09-12

      First let me say, Ned Davis Research does excellent work. I was hoping to get some insight into the types of research his company uses. But I'm sorry to say I can not recomend this book to anyone but those completely unfamiliar with sentiment analysis. Only the basics are covered. Over half of the book is stock charts showing fundamental variables (I thought this was about sentiment?) and is a waste of space. He does say he is using these variables as a measure of investor sentiment but maybe they could have used a handful of charts as examples, not over half a book that is only 170 pages long.
      The New Contrarian Investment Strategy
      Average customer rating: 4.5 out of 5 stars
      • Professor Fema
      • Sound advice to read before investing your money
      The New Contrarian Investment Strategy
      David Dreman
      Manufacturer: Random House
      ProductGroup: Book
      Binding: Hardcover

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      Customer Reviews:

      5 out of 5 stars Professor Fema.......2005-12-20

      Professor Fema said "no markets are risk averse because markets are efficient". Academics supported the theory of assumption of risk as necessary to bind investment theory to economics. This is a hole that efficient markets researchers have dug for themselves. Paul Samuelson, of MIT, introduced differential equations to study virtually any economic problem. The key assumption was rationality and economics could be converted into a precise physical science. Paul Slovic's, psychology of risk, challenges the assumptions of rationality. Slovic introduced psychological factors that shape judgement of risk. People tend to respond to hazards they perceive. Financial persuasion fluctuates because credibility is hard too acquire but easy to lose. For investors, when it comes to winning, the playing field is tilited towards distrust. The perception of risk exposure from a minor problem can increase dramatically into a signficant correction, as distrust escalates.

      4 out of 5 stars Sound advice to read before investing your money.......1998-02-07

      This book is easy reading and presents a healthy perspective on how to think before investing. I think this book and Johnson's "A Random Walk and Beyond" are very helpful resources, especially compared to Lynch's pablum.
      Contrarian Investment Strategy
      Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
      • 4 Stars because author has an update: A Vital Read Still!
      Contrarian Investment Strategy
      David Dreman
      Manufacturer: Random House
      ProductGroup: Book
      Binding: Hardcover

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      ASIN: 0394423909
      Release Date: 1980-01-12

      Customer Reviews:

      4 out of 5 stars 4 Stars because author has an update: A Vital Read Still!.......2004-05-03

      I admit to opening this book with a degree of scepticism because of its early publication date (1979). Most of the older investment books that I have read just do not stand the test of time. I am shocked and pleased to report that this one is different: It remains a timely, interesting if not particularly lively read! The really great thing about this book is that it covers a broad panoply of issues that saves one from having to buy other books such as, to paraphrase, 'The Madness of Crowds and the Delusions of....', or 'Against All Odds,' (a book about the nature of odds). I would say 'A Random Walk Down Wallstreet' too, but I believe that this latter book is so important that one really must read it. The author does one thing that no other book on investing that I have read has done which is to discuss the effect of mass psychology or 'groupthink' upon the decisions of market analysts, financial advisors, and investors. Further the author convincingly demonstrates the why and how that fundamental and technical analyses fail to outperform the market, or even to anticipate market moves. What makes this book an especially timely read to me (circa 2004) is that I believe that the conditions of the 1970's that the author comments upon have crucial similarities to the ones that we may soon be facing (wartime economy, inflationary pressures, statgnant job/wage growth, national self-doubt). Obviously no two economic eras will be identical, but I believe that the author's incredibly insightful commentary at that time supplies we the present day audience with an awful lot of really good ideas and methods for building a successful approach to the new economics. As to the author's system of 'Contrarian Investment Strategy,' I would put it to you that the ideas contained are not half bad. In fact, I use a somewhat modified approach myself which, I am happy to say, seems to have stood me in good stead to date. I would recommend this book to you and, without having read it yet, the author's undoubtedly good 1998 update; although, ironically, I suspect that this older version is going to be more relevant to the next decade than the updated version is. We'll see.
      Contrarian Investing: Buy and Sell When Others Won't and Make Money Doing It (New York Institute of Finance)
      Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
      • I expected much more!
      • Watch for extremes in market sentiment.
      • Worth the time and the price
      • Good presentation of a trading system
      • Good presentation of a trading system
      Contrarian Investing: Buy and Sell When Others Won't and Make Money Doing It (New York Institute of Finance)
      Anthony Gallea , and William Patalon
      Manufacturer: Prentice Hall Press
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      ASIN: 0735200785

      Book Description

      "The book does provide investors a valuable reality check in an age when the stock market continues to defy gravity". -- Teresa McUsic - Knight Ridder News Service

      How to succeed and profit by NOT following conventional trends, that is the secret to Contrarian investing: buy assets that are out of favor. Here, Anthony Gallea a Contrarian with impressive credentials and William Patalon a savvy business writer -- explain this strategy for everyone in the market: novices and professionals alike.

      Contrarian Investing gives readers the investing tips and techniques used by a portfolio manager overseeing $600 million in assets, with a track record for focusing on increasing returns while attempting to reduce risk. Written in a conversational style with exciting stories about big name but (at one time) out-of-favor stocks like Chrysler, IBM, Citicorp, and Xerox.

      Gallea and Patalon show how the Contrarian approach can be systematized. They identify the key indicators backed by solid research that tell an investor when to buy and sell stocks. The authors have created a set of guidelines or trading rules that any investor can learn and put to immediate use.

      Readers will understand:

      Why Contrarian stock-picking works
      How to identify a Contrarian stock
      When to buy; when to sell
      How to help reduce risk
      And the key to Contrarian investing -- the psychology of investors

      Customer Reviews:

      1 out of 5 stars I expected much more!.......2006-03-25

      The claim to fame of the book is to buy stocks down atleast 50% from their 52 week high and to look for insider buying at these levels.
      While good advice its far from perfect nor very insightful or original. I think contrarian investing is a very interesting topic that has huge potential, so when I read this the authur made no attempt to prove his superior insight in to the markets.

      5 out of 5 stars Watch for extremes in market sentiment........2005-12-31

      To be a contrarian means betting against crowd, and against the prognosticators and pundits who, as highly visible experts, are makers of mass opinion. A contrarian is interested in the extremes in market sentiment, not just disagreeing with the majority. In order for a contrarian to profit, the whole must be convinced they are right in their investment sentiment and the contrarian position juxtapose in the reverse sentiment. A contrarian investor measures opinion of the investing public, and the when the opinion reaches an "unreasonable extreme", he invests against it; a contrarian should avoid mass media speculation that accompanies market tops. Investors are attracted by action, by the potential for profit. When a stock has risen for a long time, and then really accelerates to the upside, it can suddenly attract a whole new group of investors who will strong bid for the stock. People have a way of projecting into the future, a straight line from the past, unfortunately for them, the run rarely continues. Reversal occurs.

      Buy rule: 1. A stock must be down 50%, in the last 12 months and experiencing significant insider purchases. 2. Any two of the following: PE < 12, Price/Cash Flow < 10, Price/Sales < 1, Price/Book Value < 1

      Sell rule: 1. A stock must rises 50% from its purchase price or after 3 years which ever comes first 2. Sell on 25% loss 3. The investor should seek stocks that pay dividends can keep in cash for investment purposes.

      4 out of 5 stars Worth the time and the price.......2003-01-14

      Nowadays many people so easily refer themselves as contrarians as if the title will easily make them winners in the investment game. Of course, common sense, though not really common, tells us something otherwise.

      In this book, many historical examples had been quoted about how those genuine contrarians bought on panic and sold on eurphoria, and it's only when the market consensus was at its extreme that the contrarian play would pay. It makes no sense just to think that you are playing opposite to the crowd whilst you simply belong to one of them.

      In this respect, the authors had put forth a contrarian system for investors to follow, rules based on value/fundamental investing but with solid technical elements of when to enter a market and when to stop profit/loss. So called real life stories and testimonials to support the authors' theories and propositions are abundant everywhere. Psychology behind a trend is vividly elaborated.

      I think that the book is a good leisure reading for veterans and a good starter for beginners. Definitely you wont get bored. The lovely pigs on the front cover do tell something about how the authors would like it to be.

      p.s. The foreword by Jim Rogers, reprinted from an article In Rogers' own book Investment Biker, and also many of those adages in the beginning of every chapter, are excellent.

      "Dont fight forces; use them."
      "The easiest job I have ever tackled in this world is that of making money. It is, in fact, almost as easy as losing it. Almost, but not quite."

      5 out of 5 stars Good presentation of a trading system.......2000-09-19

      I bought this book as a counterpoint to my interest in momentum investing in high technology stocks. The criteria they set for picking "loser" stocks that can be "saved" restrict contrary picks to a few investments, but the investments are worthwhile additions to a portfolio of momentum stocks. Their criteria for stop-loss trades is also worthwhile to either contrarian or momentum investment picks.

      5 out of 5 stars Good presentation of a trading system.......2000-09-19

      I bought this book as a counterpoint to my interest in momentum investing in high technology stocks. The criteria they set for picking "loser" stocks that can be "saved" restrict contrary picks to a few investments, but the investments are worthwhile additions to a portfolio of momentum stocks. Their criteria for stop-loss trades is also worthwhile to either contrarian or momentum investment picks.
      Contrarian Investing
      Average customer rating: 4.5 out of 5 stars
      • Good for long-term fund management.
      • A contrarian's best friend
      • For Value Investors Only - Contrarian Strategies That Work
      • Simple guidelines remove emotional errors of stock trading
      • Excellent Analysis of the Benefits of Contrarian Investing
      Contrarian Investing
      Anthony M. Gallea , and William Patalon
      Manufacturer: Prentice Hall Pr
      ProductGroup: Book
      Binding: Hardcover

      Public FinancePublic Finance | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
      GeneralGeneral | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
      GeneralGeneral | Investing | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
      IntroductionIntroduction | Investing | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
      GeneralGeneral | Personal Finance | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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      ASIN: 0735200009

      Amazon.com

      The stock market may be the only exchange in which buyers rush in when prices are raised and stand back warily when prices are marked down. The few investors able to resist this herd psychology are called contrarians; they buy and sell when others won't. Anthony M. Gallea, a Senior Portfolio Management Director, and William Patalon III, a newspaper reporter, have written a guide for those who aim to join the contrarians' lonely ranks. The authors' first rule is never to buy a stock unless its price has dropped at least 50 percent from its 52-week high. Following this rule would have meant missing out on a lot of the fun during the 1990s, but it may serve investors well if the market's momentum stalls.

      Customer Reviews:

      5 out of 5 stars Good for long-term fund management........2006-02-22

      This book describes a method for "betting against the crowd" in the purchase of emotionally (but not rationally) out-of-favor equities. The authors recommend buying stocks that have experienced substantial declines in price, but are capable of passing through several value filters. There is also a good discussion of when to sell and how to manage risk. This method is different from the bargain hunting of value investing because it seeks stocks which are selling at extreme prices due to a temporary stumble in the marketplace.

      The authors cite several studies which suggest that such an investment approach can deliver annual returns of 20%, or so, with less volatility than is experienced in average portfolios. They advocate a holding period of at least three years and diversification into 25-35 different issues. Therefore, this method is not suitable for the small investor whose portfolio would include more like three to ten securities.

      While lots of studies have indicated that value-based portfolios tend to beat growth-based portfolios, a closer look at the numbers suggests that focus on growth may be better for small investors than search for value.

      In one study with which I am familiar, a value portfolio handily beat its growth counterpart. However, of the fifty issues that had an average, annual growth rate of 20% (the long-term average of the broad market with included dividends is 12%), only six were big winners and forty-four had fairly dismal performances. For example (these are not the study numbers) if one of the six had a return of 400%, one had 200%, two had 100%, one had 50%, and one had 25%, for the whole portfolio to return an average of 20%, the remaining forty-four issues would have an average return of only 2.8%! If you are a relatively small investor who cannot afford to adequately diversify, your chances of finding the 12% issues with superior returns would be almost overwhelmed by the 88% of issues yielding 2.8%! Value investing for the small investor is best left to a "dogs of the Dow" approach, or buying a value-based mutual fund. ["Dogs of the Dow" concentrates only upon monster-cap, Dow Jones Industrial Average issues where underpricing does not usually last for long, since all members of this index are market leaders in their respective fields.]

      For the investor of means who can adequately diversify, and who is not under the pressure to generate performance-busting returns every calendar quarter, the method presented here is simple, workable, and worth one's attention. The book is well-written; the material is presented in logical, flowing manner; and the authors' case is supported with numerous examples and references. Please note that this method will primarily uncover candidates at major market bottoms. A "Big Charts" stock screener on the date of this posting (closer to a market top than bottom) indicated that there were zero candidates for consideration under this plan at this time.

      5 out of 5 stars A contrarian's best friend.......2000-06-26

      This book is a contrarian investor's ultimate guide. Written by a portfolio manager and business reporter who know their stuff, this is advice to take to heart. Whether a beginner or highly experienced investor, everyone can learn something valuable from this tremendous resource. It is also an excellent introduction to anyone interested in the concept of contrarian investing.

      All aspects are covered including a history of market manias, factors which drive the markets, an individual investor psychological evaluation and a series of formulas in order to calculate what stocks might be ideal contrarian plays.

      This book belongs on every investor's bookshelf, especially anyone seeking to make profits from "the crowd's" mistakes. It deserves 100 stars.

      5 out of 5 stars For Value Investors Only - Contrarian Strategies That Work.......2000-01-06

      This book should click with value investors. Gallea and Patalon provide practical technical and fundamental strategies to beat the market (with little downside risk) as a contrarian investor. In today's frothy market, the principles gained in this book will help you screen for stocks with major upside potential.

      5 out of 5 stars Simple guidelines remove emotional errors of stock trading.......1999-07-05

      This book is an excellent work on exercising rational techniques for investing in the stock market with a long view of returns. Not intended to be a "speculators" guide, the authors describe specifically what indicators prompt an investor to buy and sell, actions that will be contrary to prevailing market sentiment, but validated by the results of several long-term studies on the success of these indicators in the market. The book doesn't pretend to be fool-proof in its methodology, offering sound advice on how to protect against losses, save profits, and distribute risk in one's portfolio. All this adds to the credibility of the authors and raises the reader's confidence in the thoroughness of their approach to stock market investing.

      5 out of 5 stars Excellent Analysis of the Benefits of Contrarian Investing.......1999-06-25

      I found this book to be well written and a great primer on contrarian investing for people who want to manage their own investments. Contrarian strategies are least popular during stock market manias but such periods are also the best time to invest in value instead of hype and hoopla. Overall this is a great book for investors with independant minds and the courage to go against the crowd.
      Contrarian Investing -
      Average customer rating: Not rated
        Contrarian Investing -
        Anthony M. Gallea -
        Manufacturer: New York Institute Of Finance Publishing -
        ProductGroup: Book
        Binding: Hardcover
        ASIN: B000P0YSY4
        The Great Money Illusion; The Confusion Of The Confusions
        Average customer rating: Not rated
          The Great Money Illusion; The Confusion Of The Confusions

          ProductGroup: Book
          Binding: Paperback
          ASIN: 0582999049

          Product Description

          Marc Faber's contrarian approach to investment does not always find favour with the typical client. And his pessimistic but accurate prediction of the 1987 crash justified the nickname, Dr. Doom. In The Great Money Illusion Marc Faber analyses the financial ups and downs of the last forty years. From Switzerland to London, New York to Hong Kong, he captures the moods of the market participants: their excessive greed and carelessness during the bull run; their post-crash fear and panic. Marc Faber's encounters with some of the leading financial players provide rare insight into their investment strategies. His personal views of the markets of the future completes this remarkable study. Marc Faber is [at time of publication] managing director of Drexel Burnham Lambert Ltd. Born in Switzerland and educated in Zurich and London, he holds a PhD in economics and has worked in New York, London, and Hong Kong.

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