Product Description
By the early 90s, a raging bull market was delivering spectacular returns, causing some to believe that a market collapse and subsequent depression would soon appear. As a result of these fears, some exited the capital markets altogether. Thereafter, the Internet took off causing the market bubble to swell, many high-tech stocks with seemingly limitless valuations. Over the course of its 13-year stretch, the market appreciated by over 600 percent, with average annual returns in excess of 18 percent. And we all remember what happened at the start of the new millennium. Even after the deflation of the Internet bubble, cautious investors who pulled out of the market a decade earlier missed out on spectacular returns since then. Many investors who entered the market near its peak suffered devastating losses. But most who remained invested since the early 90s are still much better off today. While this correction revealed the most recent illusions embedded within the economy, it s only a small part of what will be a larger correction in the coming years. Despite the scandals in corporate America and Wall Street, many investors fail to recognize that the post-bubble period is quite different from the Bull Run in the 90s. But today, the capital markets have been realigned with authenticity, and economics now control the investment cycle rather than hype generated by Wall Street. Accordingly, Wall Street and the U.S. Government can only hide the realities of America s decline for so long. Unfortunately, America entered the free trade paradigm as a losing participant from the start. While America remains as the centerpiece for the global economy, it relies on record debt to maintain its status as the world s strongest consumer marketplace. But this cannot last much longer. America s vulnerable role in the new economy threatens to erode the strength of its empire. Already, America has witnessed a gradual disappearance of its core citizens; the middle class. As well, poverty continues to grow while America s wealthiest quintile increases their wealth. These trends have been masked by record levels of credit-based spending and manipulation of economic data. For over two decades, several nations have benefited at the expense of America s job base and living standards. This led to a long period of excessive consumption relative to productivity. When the economic boom from the post-war period began to lose steam in the 60s, consumption began to exceed productivity, as Americans refused to acknowledge a decline in living standards. Up until the 70s, America fueled this consumption-production disparity using the surplus wealth generated during the post-war boom. During the 80s, America s growing consumption was compounded by massive government spending and a devastating oil crisis. Shortly thereafter, the consumer credit industry grew to meet the demands of a nation experiencing large productivity deficits. And today, America is vastly different than the post-war period. Rather than increases in net wealth, America s growth over the past two decades has been fueled by credit spending which has created the illusion of impressive productivity, while serving to mask declining living standards. As a consequence of these changes, America s financial industry is now one of its biggest and most profitable. Today, America is more dependent on foreign nations than anytime in its history. Declining oil reserves and a foreign-funded credit bubble have positioned the fate of this nation in the hands of the world. Soon, America will face the economic burden of 76 million aging boomers. Beginning in 2011, mandatory expenditures for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will start to grow rapidly. By 2025, these expenses will have swelled to unthinkable levels.
Customer Reviews:
Excellent presentation of data, some mistakes.......2007-10-11
The author did an excellent job compiling data that is extremely important to understand if one is to thrive in America in the next 2 decades. There will no doubt be sweeping changes to rectify our current account deficit and aging boomer population. The author shed light on the politics behind Greenspan & Co's delay when our country needs to address these problems now. Other topics include: the .com bubble, real estate / credit bubble, free trade, health care, social security, energy crisis, and education.
Yes there are typos and some minor implications that are incorrect, but I don't believe they affect the overall concepts presented. I have also read "The Dollar Crisis" and find both books to be honest presentations of America's current economic state. I would have enjoyed even more information on developing nations, but the title of the book focuses on America, so be it. Overall, I felt this book was an excellent read that is neither conservative nor extreme but simply a presentation of data and well-thought hypothetical analysis of what is to come for America. Only the typos keep it from getting 5 stars.
Riddled with inaccuracies.......2007-07-30
This book manages to cover all major problems faced by the United States in the next 20-30 years - trade deficit, healthcare crisis, education crisis, etc. - and it does so in a fairly comprehensive way, with large numbers of facts and graphs.
The reason why I can't give it more than 3 stars for this achievement is that the number of mistakes it contains (from misspellings to factual errors) is absolutely incredible. It seems that no one (other than the author) so much as read the book before it went to the printing press.
First of all, there are spelling errors. English is not my native language, yet I've been able to notice one spelling error every 20-30 pages. "Notices in-lue of gold" (p.2). "Right to bare arms" (p.25). "America will loose its technology edge" (p.61), and so on. There are factual errors as well. According to the author, Statue of Liberty was erected on Ellis Island (p.27), Berlin Wall fell "a few years" after 1991 (p.10), and Albert Einstein immigrated into the United States in 1940. He thinks that women who give birth after entering the United States illegally are guaranteed citizenship because their newborns become U.S. citizens (p.32) - but he either does not know or fails to mention that they have to wait for their child to turn 18 before they even have a shot at legalization. He frequently claims (or implies) that Chinese goods are cheaper because Chinese government and Chinese companies do not provide healthcare or retirement benefits to their workers (p.41), when in fact they do. All these problems make me wary of any other claims he makes in his book.
There are many interesting graphs and charts in the book, but at least some of them were "cooked up" by the author from third-party data, so they are not always reliable. One rather puzzling chart is located on p. 113. It is a pie-chart labelled "Factors Driving Rising Costs in Healthcare (2001-2002, in $ billions)". However, pieces of the pie are labelled with percentage values and clearly add up to 100% (e.g. "Increased Consumer Demand, 15%"). Author comments, "Someone explain to me the economics of increased consumer demand leading to a 15% increase in healthcare costs in one year". It's clear that he has no idea what's really shown on the chart.
The book is heavy on portrayal of various weaknesses in modern U.S. economy, but rather light on attempts to predict the future. There is almost no discussion about the impact of American crisis on the rest of the world. Author predicts major revaluation of the dollar, but does not provide any macroeconomic analysis of consequences of this revaluation. He seems to think that collapse will not occur at least until 2012, but he's not very clear why he thinks it won't be triggered by deflation of the real estate bubble.
Overall this is an interesting and comprehensive book that's worth reading for anyone who thinks that U.S. economy is doing well, but it's not scientific or reliable enough to be of real value for an investor.
I recommend "Dollar Crisis" as a complementary treatment of the U.S trade deficit / credit bubble problem.
A chilling but accurate expose of how we came to be in such economic peril as a capitalist nation.......2007-06-10
In writing "America's Financial Apocalypse: How To Profit From The Next Great Depression", the author draws upon his many years of experience and expertise as a business, financial, and investment consultant for two of Wall Street's largest investment firms and elsewhere in private financial markets. Strathis provides an impressively analytical explanation as to how the liberals on the left and the conservatives on the right are working in differing ways to destroy America's fiscal and economic well-being; how the federal government in Washington is dominated by corporations; how China has taken total advantage of America's trading policies to our nation's detriment. Readers will be shocked to learn how America is legally bankrupt; how today the 'American Dream' cannot be achieved by most American citizens; the truth concerning the future of Social Security; the inevitable and looming consequences of the present pension plan crisis; and why most Americans working today will not be able to retire as their parent were able to in the past. "America's Financial Apocalypse" also addresses just how the American government manipulates economic data; how the Bush administration is responsible for the worst economic recovery in American financial history; how the real estate bubble could cause the stock and bond markets to collapse; how America's political and economic fate is in the hands of foreign countries; why the American government is really allied to the Saudi Arabians despite the established identities of the 9/11 attack; the looming global oil crisis; Alan Greenspans dismal performance as a Fed Chairman; the plummeting value of the dollar in the international currency markets; and the continuing rise in value of precious metals and oil. After laying out all of these 'inconvenient truths' about America's economic future, Strathis also lays out how the wise and savvy investor can still profit from an inevitable depression that will collapse America's economy in the very near future. A chilling but accurate expose of how we came to be in such economic peril as a capitalist nation, "America's Financial Apocalypse" is especially recommended reading for its clear and methodical explanation of just how the individual investor can survive what will prove to be the 'Next Great Depression'.
This Book Has NO Comparable!.......2007-04-05
Finally, an insightful, detailed, and massive compilation of America's economy and investment markets. This book is HIGHY recommended.
The reviewer below is actually wrong in his simplistic assumption that deflation is the exact opposite of inflation. While deflation tends to cause a relative increase in buying power, this effect is only when deflation is modest and in the early stages. During a more prolonged period, deflation creates a decline in GDP and therefore purchasing power due to the relative effects on currency exchange rates.
I find it amazing that a person could give such a bad review over one statement that he thinks is wrong (when in fact it is not) despite all of the massive data and extensive coverage of material. If a reader chooses to cherry pick from within a massive resource such as this book, they will miss the forest from the trees.
Hold on there...........2007-04-05
After spending $55+ for this book, I started to leaf through it and promptly came across the following comment: "...rising gold prices usually result from a deflationary economy not an inflationary one, as investors seek to minimize the loss in buying power of their currency." So far as I know, a deflationary environment INCREASES the buying power of one's currency, as prices generally decrease during a deflationary episode. In other words, one can buy more loaves of bread per dollar in the bank. Gold is generally a hedge against inflation or fiat currency collapse, not deflation. Given what seems to me a basic error of this nature, I will be skeptical of other information in the book.
Book Description
Stephen Leeb shows how hard times can be a boon for smart investors. As the world faces an energy crisis of unprecedented scope, renowed economist Stephen Leeb shows how surging oil prices will contribute to an economic collapse. With meticulous research and analysis, Leeb shows that due to strong competition from India and China, prices could soon double, a cost for which most countries and investors are ill-prepared. Now, in this groundbreaking book, Leeb not only shows how this crisis will affect consumers, but how savvy investing can turn these dire times into financial gain.
Customer Reviews:
Hits the Mark.......2007-10-04
I found Leeb's book to be well reasoned and devoid of the hysteria so common to books forecasting problems for the dollar and the US economy. The worst thing about this book is the title because the 'economic collapse' phrase may cause many to think it's written by a crank. That is certainly not true.
Leeb ties in the rising price of oil with America's debt problems and shows what options remain for the Federal Reserve and the government. It's not that complicated. They have to inflate because a deep recession would crush an economy so burdened with public and private debt. We already saw this after the 2001 stock crash. They cut rates to near zero and doubled the national debt in 7 years rather than suffer a cleansing recession. The feds know how bad it could get. America can't afford to risk a recession due to all the debt and leverage in every part of the system.
In 2007, the situation has become much worse because now we have an imploding housing market and a falling dollar. Interestingly, Leeb stated in the book that he didn't think housing would crash. He figured the feds would inflate at all costs to prevent it from happening because a housing collapse is far worse than a stock market crash. He may yet be right, but home prices are surely falling right now. So, what will the government do - double the national debt again?
Look at it this way. If the economy continues to grow then demand for oil will grow and we'll hit supply constraints and higher prices much faster. That means inflation. If the economy slows due to housing or oil or slowing consumption, then the feds will have to inflate to prevent a deflation. No matter how you look at the problem, it seems the news will be bad for the dollar. Faced with the facts and inflationary scenarios Leeb presents, I think a reasonable person would want to own some gold.
Leeb's portfolio suggestions are a bit extreme for me and I'd balance them a bit. However, he's been right so far. This is a very good book in all respects.
Predictions so far spot on target . . . . .......2007-10-01
I've read and re-read this book over the last year and have to say that Leeb's predictions have been very, very good. In fact, much, much better than my advisors and their research departments in the financial services industry. Oil service stocks such as Schlumberger, National Oilwells Varco and Transocean have been fantastic performers over the last three years and continue to rise despite a mediocre market. Resource companies such as Freeport Mcmorran, Teck Cominco and CVRD continue to rise. Russia & Venezuala are nationalizing their oil industries. Iran's nuclear ambitions are partly because they are running out of energy to feed their growing population. Gold is now over $750 an ounce! The US dollar continues a steady decline against other world currencies. The US Federal Reserve has lowered rates by 1/2 a percent because they know how vulnerable and debt laden US households are with the housing decline. In other words, inflation is the only solution to the fix the US is in. The war on Iraq and the War on Terror has sucked up precious resources and requires the govt. to print more money. The Fed is in a real bind right now and they are following the course predicted by Leeb. If the Fed had raised rates or kept them the same, then I would say Leeb might have been wrong. Large cap Chindian stocks such as Procter & Gamble are doing well as are infrastructure plays such as Chicago Bridge & Iron (mentioned by Leeb) and Foster Wheeler. Oil is now over $81 a barrel and rising. US Small Cap stocks are not doing well - my US small cap fund has preformed dismally. At the same time, financial advisors continue to be in denial of the new reality. Hats off to Mr. Leeb: I'm making money thanks to his thoughtful advice. As a Canadian seeing our dollar now at par with the $US for the first time since 1976, the price of our grain rising 40% in one year (partly due to ethanol production) and the crazy rush of resources into our tar sands, I can tell you that Mr. Leeb has hit the target with his book and predictions.
Great Book!.......2007-09-21
The information listed is in line with everything else I've read. Great presentation and full of facts. I enjoyed reading it.
Peak oil from an investor view.......2007-09-03
Author Stephen Leeb recounts the anarchy, chaos and immense suffering that followed in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita and suggests this may be in our future in a broader way if and when the oil flow that largely supports our wealth creation is abruptly decreased. The "new world" that could emerge might be one of greatly reduced complexity. Systems like clean water/sewers, computing power, organized transporation and large-scale production, medicine and chemical-supported/mechanized farming could diminish into a more localized, much less resource-intensive - and even Amish-like subsistance.
In any issue like "peak oil," a multi-faceted view is needed to grasp the deep truths. This book reveals some of the same scenarios layed out by other authors concerning the forecased economic disaster looming ahead - but brings some additional perspectives from the world of investments. One can tell reading several of the sections that the suthor indeed is an investment professional and not an environmental sustainability guru. Where other books on peak oil (Hubbart's Peak, 1000 Barrels a Second) are loaded full of technical graphs, Leeb's account here is loaded with investment advice on how to prosper if/when such a downfall insues (his advice bsaed on the 70's oil crisis: buy gold, real estate, oil company stock and China/India investments).
Of surprize to many readers will be almost no mention whatsoever of ecological issues related to oil like climate change or other eco impacts. In fact, where the author finally gets around to mentioning global warming, much to his credit he brings out a potent reality rarely mentioned in the peak oil discussion: petro-chemicals and their essential products will also potentially plummet severely. These are the plastics, asphalt, plastic packaging, PVC pipe, pharmacueticals and other essential products we take for granted.
In the end, Mr. Leeb seems somewhat hopeful (unlike others) that technology - if applied quickly and with an Apollo-mission-like lazar focus - might save the day. He is bullish on wind power, a renewable that is closest to competing now with fossil fuel power. But, many others state the case for a more sustainable world based on new, totally reimagined ways of doing things much better than the author here.
In short, if you are concerned with how your portfolio should change if oil starts climbing over $100/barrel, this is a decent book to inform. Otherwise, for a broader view on impacts of peak oil and the other critical issues facing civilization, Lester Brown's "Plan B - Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble" is a compelling choice.
Ok already, we know you have written The Oil Factor .......2007-08-31
It is an interesting and well written book. My only gripe was that it seemed that every other sentence mentions, "...in my other book, The Oil Factor...." This just got plain annoying.
Customer Reviews:
A Step beyond Asset Allocation and Annual Rebalancing.......2007-02-24
For all of us that are interested in taking a more active role in our investments, the processes in this book are a good next step. There is a rare balance of acceptance of risk and potential gain in the author's suggested quarterly re-allocation method. The method is not a "read the market" approach, which virtually no one can do consistently, if at all. It is rather a method to use recent fund performance as a purchase / reallocation guideline for short periods of time (as in quarterly). It is definitely not for everyone, because of the quarterly attention required. A very good incremental step in a maturing investor's education.
Important Investment Guide for the Novice and Expert alike.......2006-11-27
Being a financial advisor, I've come across books that range from the very basic to the ridiculous.
Appel's book, although more conventional then his previous titles, lays out a comprehensive, although extremely practical and relevant strategy for 1) understanding how the markets both stocks and bonds work and 2) giving the investor various options to use that although do involve time and some monitoring, provide a solid blue-print step by step guide that will allow them to more intelligently invest with their hard-earned assets while reducing risk where possible.
Moreover, the combination of fundamental and technical analysis in security selection allows the investor to capitalize on both areas of the market that are affected by emotional factors (external events) but also takes advantage of proven technical and analytical strategies that in the long-haul will give the investor above market gains.
Highly recommended.
Practical Investing Guide for Self-directed Investors.......2006-11-07
Gerald Appel is a well-known author, technical analyst (and developer of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator) who has written a practical guide to investing while dispelling a number of Wall Street myths on along the way. His book's purpose is to help readers who have limited time on their hands become active intelligent investors, as well as to help those individuals who are willing to put in more time and effort.
In the book, Appel covers specifically which vehicles to invest in, the timing of the buys and sells, and how to construct a portfolio that is diversified and balanced based on the individual's age and financial situation. Throughout the book, he stresses the importance of active, informed, self-directed investing instead of the out-of-date and risky buy and hold approach which "may or may not service investors purposes in the future."
The author suggests that investors focus not only on the U.S. stock market, but also on the overseas markets. He recommends investing in U.S. stocks, bonds, and money market instruments, as well as the more unfamiliar foreign bonds and stocks, real estate, and investments in foreign countries.
Appel kicks off the book covering the myth of why buy and hold is not a risk-free investment strategy compared to active management. He shows that by using a few indicators such as the NASDAQ/NYSE ratio, direction of interest rates, public sentiment, and the Best Six Months Strategy (buy at end of October and sell in May and go into cash until next October) that investors can reduce their risk and obtain decent investment performance. For example, by using the NASDAQ/NYSE relative strength ratio with a 10 dma crossover signal, according to Appel it is possible to beat the market's performance with about half the risk.
In another chapter, the author compares three diversified mutual fund portfolios showing how different market segments work well together to reduce risk and improve returns. He covers the basics of how to select the best mutual funds by providing the most important characteristics to consider for the long run. Furthermore, he illustrates how to pick funds that are in the top decile of performance.
Appel devotes a separate chapter to income investing suggesting short-term bonds with high credit ratings, and current interest flow. In a section on maximizing safety he mentions T-bills, money market accounts, and setting up a bond ladder with wide diversification. He also reviews what to focus on for maximum potential returns, as well as balancing risk and return. A follow-on chapter reviews the keys to securing junk bond yields at Treasury bond risk levels. Another chapter reviews investing in REITs while another covers investing abroad using open-end and closed-end funds as well as ETFs.
Appel favors ETFs as a new way to invest replacing the typical mutual funds. He contrasts the pros and cons of ETFs, the different ETF categories, and how to create and maintain a diversified portfolio. He provides three specific sample portfolios for different types of investors.
The author's market timing approach encompasses both fundamental and technical analysis. On the fundamental side he reviews the P/E ratio, bond yields, earnings yields and provides guidance on how to interpret the readings. On the technical side, he discusses the four year and presidential election market cycles, advance decline line, and new high new low breadth indicator.
Overall, Appel provides readers with a time-tested practical approach to take control of their investments. For those readers that prefer investing using their own skills this book will provide and excellent plan for moving ahead and succeeding.
Good book.......2006-10-31
Really like this book. Covers sector rotation, etf's, how to position yourself to profit regardless of the market. Good, usable information. Yes it is backtested info. Use at your own risk. I like it!
Product Description
The taxation of natural resources is one of the more complicated areas of the U.S. federal income tax system. From the acquisition of the mineral rights, to the exploration and development of the property, to the ultimate production of the mineral, there are unusual and challenging tax aspects along every step of the way. Oil and Gas: Federal Income Taxation (2007) is an invaluable single-source handbook for accounting, tax and legal practitioners concerned with financial issues related to oil and gas industry tax law. Highlights for the new edition include: New amortization rules for Major Integrated Oil Companies provided in the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act of 2005 (effective after May 16, 2006). New IRS guidance on the Code Sec. 199 Domestic Production Deduction. Uniform Capitalization Change in Accounting Method Procedures. Rev. Proc. 2006-31 list of required factors to justify revocation of a Code Sec. 83(b) election to include property transferred for performance of services in gross income in the year transferred. Phase out of the enhanced oil recovery credit. Asset Classes: Reclassification of assets used in a refinery. Updated and revised by noted oil and gas taxation authority and educator, Patrick A. Hennessee, Ph.D., CPA , this detailed reference is divided into six main sections: - Introduction to Oil and Gas Taxation - Acquisition of Interests - The Exploration Period - The Production Period - Dispositions - Other Areas The text begins with a discussion of the nature of oil and gas reserves in order to gain a better understanding of the industry. The material following is organized in a logical sequence of events which traces the normal industry pattern for developing oil and gas reserves.
Book Description
In recent years, geopolitical disruptions, tightening oil supply, refining constraints and rising demand have combined to maintain high oil prices, allowing Middle East oil producers to capitalize on the resulting revenue windfall. However, formidable challenges for long-term production loom ahead: Can Gulf oil producers allay the supply security concerns of major consumer nations? How will limitations in crude quality and constraints in refining capacity impact on global energy markets? How can OPEC maintain reasonable oil prices in the face of exhaustible oil supplies and inexhaustible global demand? How will growing non-OPEC production affect OPEC’s predominant market position in the future?
Gulf Oil and Gas assesses the vital energy issues: the globalization of the gas trade, trends in crude quality; cooperation between consumers and producers; links between national and foreign oil companies; future demand for Gulf energy; prospects for augmented Gulf production; sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s excess capacity; concerns over oilfield security; imperatives for attracting investment and the need for additional oil refining capacity. For the Gulf producers, ensuring economic security means going beyond petroleum resource management to formulate policies leading to diversified national development and greater economic cohesion while safeguarding the region’s strategic position in an integrated world economy.
Average customer rating:
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El ocaso de una estrategia. Havana, 1979. (Opex & Economic Crisis).
Hugo Pons Duarte
Manufacturer: Editorial Ciences Sociales Cuba
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: B000UPQXFG |
Product Description
7 x 4 Inches softcover. Very light cover margin wear - no other flaws. 70 Pages Charts. Graphs. Footnotes. Text is in Spanish. Delivery Confirmation / Tracking is included.
Book Description
THIS IS ABOUT MY LIFE AS A STOCK MARKET SPECULATOR. AND MY GRADUAL TRANSFORMATION FROM A CONSERVATIVE BLUE-CHIP INVESTOR INTO A STEELY EYED, RIVERBOAT GAMBLER WITH NERVES OF STEEL. WHO FOUND WHAT HE WAS LOOKING FOR IN THE STRANGE AND WONDROUS WORLD OF MICRO-CAP INVESTING. ALLOW ME TO INTRODUCE YOU INTO MY WORLD. A WORLD WHERE YOU CAN MAKE A FORTUNE ON A CHUMP-CHANGE INVESTMENT.
Customer Reviews:
How to make a killing on a chump-change investment........2007-05-30
My pen name is Big Al. I am also the writer of this book. When you self - publish a book if you don't review and promote it, then no one will. Which is what I am doing now. I have read dozens of investment books and they all ignore the almost unknown world of small-cap and micro-cap investing. Not to mention my specialty of penny mining stock investing. And yet this is precisely the world where the small investor of limited means can make a killing. Once you make your first killing in my world you will be in it for life. Just like I am. Let me introduce you to my world. A world where you can make a killing on a chump-change investment.
The most exciting thing about my world is that anyone can afford to enter it. You can become a player for an investment as low as $500.
A "must read" for any investor!.......2007-04-12
Whether you are a beginner or an experienced investor this book is a must read. The stock market can be very complicated, but Fred's forty years of knowledge and experience gives you the insight needed to invest correctly and make big returns on your money. The book is easy to read, a mixture of intellgent writing with humorus anecdotes. I highly recommend this book!
Books:
- America's Financial Apocalypse: How to Profit from the Next Great Depression
- Analysis of Equity Investments: Valuation
- Balanced Scorecard
- Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco
- Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make Competition Irrelevant
- Cases and Materials on Torts (University Casebook Series) (University Casebook Series)
- Contrarian Investment Strategies in the Next Generation
- Cost Accounting: Foundations & Evolutions
- Cost Management: Accounting and Control
- Deal Terms - The Finer Points of Venture Capital Deal Structures, Valuations, Term Sheets, Stock Options and Getting VC Deals Done (Inside the Minds)
Books Index
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The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It
