Amazon.com
The End of Oil is a "geologic cautionary tale for a complacent world accustomed to reliable infusions of cheap energy." The book centers around one irrefutable fact: the global supply of oil is being depleted at an alarming rate. Precisely how much accessible (not to mention theoretical) oil remains is debatable, but even conservative estimates mark the peak of production in decades rather than centuries. Which energy sources will replace oil, who will control them, and how disruptive to the current world order the transition from one system to the next will be are just a few of the big questions that Paul Roberts attempts to answer in this timely book.
As Roberts makes abundantly clear, the major oil players in the world wield their enormous economic and political power in order to maintain the status quo. Of course, they get plenty of help from the tens of millions of consumers, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, who guzzle oil as if there is an unlimited supply. And this demand shows no sign of abating--nearly half of the world's population lives without the benefits of fossil fuels and they desperately want to be among the haves. In countries such as China and India, where energy systems are already breaking down, Roberts discusses how they are looking to oil to fuel their race for development, in many cases ignoring environmental considerations altogether.
Though there is much to be pessimistic about, Roberts does uncover some positive developments, such as the race for alternative energy sources, notably hydrogen fuel cells, which could help to ease us off of our oil dependence before a full-blown energy crisis occurs. No one book could cover every aspect of what Roberts calls "arguably the most serious crisis ever to face industrial society," but The End of Oil is a remarkably informative and balanced introduction to this pressing subject. --Shawn Carkonen
Book Description
You live in this world. You use oil. You must read this book. The situation is alarming and irrefutable: within thirty years, even by conservative estimates, we will have burned our way through most of the oil that is readily available to us. Already, the costly side effects of dependence on fossil fuel are taking their toll. Even as oil-related conflict threatens entire nations, individual consumers are suffering from higher prices at the gas pump, rising health problems, and the grim prospect of long-term environmental damage. In this frank and balanced investigation, Paul Roberts offers a timely wake-up call. He talks to both oil optimists and oil pessimists, delves deep into the economics and politics of oil, and considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives such as wind power, hybrid cars, and hydrogen. A new afterword brings the book up to the minute. Brisk, immediate, and accessible, this is essential reading for anyone who uses oil, which is to say every one of us.
Customer Reviews:
Fair minded and objective overview of big energy.......2007-09-23
Very readable....Roberts does an excellent job of presenting opinions fairly and from many pro/contra angles. He has fully immersed himself in his topic and the book is chocked-full of fascinating energy facts.
What to do about our energy future has become as politically polarized as abortion - Conservatives favor fossil fuels and the Moderate - Liberal folks want to go Renewable.
Roberts is bare-knuckled about what he feels the agendas are behind the current debate, which leads him to a (slightly) reserved pessimism about our chances of making it out of the mess we've made, by putting all our energy eggs in one basket. He does not hide his contempt for later-day politicians who can't see the forest for the trees and won't take action to avert the coming energy drought.
A must read, but with lots of salt........2007-08-14
This book is both well-written and well-researched. The analysis is sound, in so far as I understand this complex set of issues.
But I have serious doubts. First, I found the writing hysterical and humorless. Granted, he's a journalist, and this is subject is serious, but my first instinct on reading a book written like this is to call BS. I've seen too many books over the years on subjects like Japanese industrial dominance, the death of the whales, economic collapse, etc., to believe that mankind won't self-adjust somehow. To forecast the "end of civilization" in re: Diamond's Collapse, is to make lots of dubious assumptions about causation.
That is not to trivialize the real dangers he exposes with regard to our energy supply. The trifecta of petro-terrorism, climate change, and the energy lobby in DC is surely dangerous. Danger, however, does not spell Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome. It spells real problems, that may limit our taste for luxury, but I don't think it's a given that a coming "perilous new world" will make Austin, TX the new Camden, NJ. (Camden's not even that bad).
I think it's instructive to look back to the two basic views on human nature undergirding our liberal legal system: Hobbes and Locke. Roberts seems to believe that a constrained energy supply will lead us to the war of all against all. I'm not so sure we're all that anti-social, and humankind's seen this discussion around 1550-1700. So, if the end of oil poses a crisis in wealth, we will all have to cope, but I'm not sure we'll all become like "dogs fighting in the street over pieces of meat", to quote from the oilman in Syriana.
Wake up call for Americans.......2007-04-15
A lot of these reviews are very good. I think the book is very informative and deeply researhed. I also recommend reading "Blood Oil", look it up.
Great book, but a little scary.......2007-03-15
An excellent, thorough and fair review of the global energy situation and the options for our future. It's just a little scary and frustrating that we really aren't doing anything about the challenges the author presents.
Fantastic! Eye-opening, timely, and useful guide for these times!.......2007-03-09
This book gives you a thorough history of our relationship to energy sources, and prepares us for the bumpy roads ahead. Highly recommended. I can now dive into current oil/global warming/energy issues and headlines with a greater understanding of the overall picture. Thankfully, since this was written, the Inconvenient Truth movie was released, and people are getting clued in to the realities of climate change.
Book Description
With world oil production about to peak and inexorably head toward steep decline, what fuels are available to meet rising global energy demands? That question, once thought to address a fairly remote contingency, has become ever more urgent, as a spate of books has drawn increased public attention to the imminent exhaustion of the economically vital world oil reserves. Deffeyes, a geologist who was among the first to warn of the coming oil crisis, now takes the next logical step and turns his attention to the earth's supply of potential replacement fuels. In Beyond Oil, he traces out their likely production futures, with special reference to that of oil, utilizing the same analytic tools developed by his former colleague, the pioneering petroleum-supply authority M. King Hubbert.
The book includes chapters on natural gas, coal, tar sands and heavy oils, oil shale, uranium, and (although not strictly an energy resource itself) hydrogen. A concluding chapter on the overall energy picture covers the likely mix of energy sources the world can rely on for the near-term future, and the special roles that will need to be played by conservation, high-mileage diesel automobiles, nuclear power plants, and wind-generated electricity.
An acknowledged expert in the field, Deffeyes brings a deeply informed, yet optimistic approach to bear on the growing debate. His main concern is not our long-term adaptation to a world beyond oil but our immediate future: "Through our inattention, we have wasted the years that we might have used to prepare for lessened oil supplies. The next ten years are critical."
Customer Reviews:
Very good and very disappointing.......2007-08-30
The book is very good, i.e. very instructing, in the part where the author has most expertise, i.e. oil field geology.
If you want to understand the theory behing the often referred-to Hubbert's peak, this is the book to read. The author, i.e. the professor, takes you through it, one step at a time, and even if you are not a science major, you think you get most of it, at least enough of it to buy the author's 3 main conclusions, i.e. that oil production has peaked on Thanksgiving day 2005 or thereabout, that the decline is inevitable from that date onward and that oil & gas production will have ceased altogether by the middle of the present century.
As to the balance of the book, the author warns the reader that his undertanding of economics and political science is rather limited; and he actually delivers on his warning. His views on the future of the non-oil energy sources, i.e. nuclear, coal, wind, etc. are quite superficial, alredy somewhat dated and not particularly enlighting.
In a nutshell, read chapters 1 to 3, or possibly 4, and skip the rest.
Alternatives to Oil?.......2007-07-01
4 Stars.
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes, is an excellent accounting of the coming oil depletion and some quasi-alternative geological energy sources. Mr. Deffeyes' experience and expertise is brought to bear on the problem of finding short-term alternatives to crude oil, recognizing that the development of clean energy can't happen fast enough to address the problem.
Unfortunately, Mr. Deffeyes is right -- it's too late for market forces or political will to solve our short-term energy problems. We're stuck with "alternative" fossil fuels (bonus points if you can say that with a straight face) for the time being. With this in mind, Beyond Oil offers an interesting survey of the options available to us.
This is the only book on oil depletion I've seen that includes an actual description of M. King Hubbert's methodology (or, at least, a variation on it that provides similar results). The reasoning behind the method is sound, and the empirical data shows a clear trend -- suggesting that perhaps Hubbert's Peak has already passed.
Also recommended is The Party's Over: Oil, War And The Fate Of Industrial Societies, by Richard Heinberg.
Interesting but almost a review of university chemistry.......2007-05-01
I enjoyed the style and attitude of this book, because it was written by a teaching geologist who adds color to the overall story. But I found it pretty dry and inaccessible in places, because of the chemistry and geology terminology that was used. It felt like a review of my university chemistry in many places.
What bothered me most about the book was that it made lots of claims and statements, and talked about lots of chemistry/geology/energy stuff, without using the descriptive information to make a point that advanced the narrative story. I'm not disputing the truth of the statements, but after reading pages and pages of stuff, I was left wondering, "So what? What's the point here? How does this tie in with the story line?"
This book is definitely not like most other peak oil books that I've read. And for sure its not the best one, or the most accessible one. I think Twilight in the Desert is a far better book for arguing the case for peak oil. The primary point of this book "is the disruption of our energy supplies over the next five to ten years," and it does a reasonable job at doing that.
I think the strong points of the book are the explanations of the practical aspects of the "real world" oil and gas industry--the oil window depth, how drilling depth is related to oil and gas discovery, why some oils are different than others, how tar sands oil is produced, and so on. Probably the paperback version of the book is worth its price on the basis of this book alone. If you want to see lots of data that proves peak oil is here, try Twilight in the Desert. But if you want to know more about the practical aspects of discovering and producing oil and gas, this is a good book for that. (BTW, it's definitely not about how to invest around peak oil.)
Enjoyable and informative.......2007-03-24
This is a great book. Prof. Deffeyes obviously knows his stuff. He displays an incredible depth and breadth of knowledge about all forms of energy production and a whole lot more. Given the amount of information in the book, it's nothing short of amazing how much fun it is to read. His plain-spoken style and humorous comments make it a pleasure from beginning to end.
Beyond Petroleum!.......2007-03-17
Welcome to the post-Hubbert peak, the world beyond oil!
"Business as usual is not in the cards," writes author Kenneth Deffeyes, Professor Emeritus at Princeton University and a recognized expert on energy. "Whether we like it or not, there will be major rearrangements in the world economy. It would be more orderly if we were to generate a blueprint for a society constrained by the availability of resources. Then we need a noncatastrophic pathway that takes us from here to that blueprint."
Unlike his previous book ("Hubbert's Peak. The Impending World Oil Shortage") "Beyond Oil" is my more readable and accessable to the layman. Deffeyes reviews the origins of oil and Hubbert's calculations, but then goes on to discuss gas, coal, tar sands and heavy oil, uranium, and hydrogen. He then sums up the world's energy situation in a chapter he calls "The Big Picture".
Deffeyes argues that the world has already reached its peak oil production and that henceforth oil production can only decline.
There are, however, shortcomings to Deffeyes methodology. He greatly underestimates, in my opinion, the impact of ethynol. Currently, ethynol comprises 2.5 percent of America's energy (about 5 billion barrels a year) and this is due to double within the next two years. Yes, it is not as efficient as oil to produce - it takes more energy to produce ethynol than the ethynol itself produces - but America has land and corn (and other crops) to produce ethynol in relative abundance.
The author also fails to discuss in any depth the development of synthetic fuels, which the U.S. government has been pursuing very aggressively and, if reports are to be believe, successfully.
The author also writes briefly and incorrectly about the growing world population, a topic well outside his realm of expertise. Recent trends in demographics indicate that the population of the world will actually stabilize at around 9 billion and then decline in around 2050. The problem will not be an exploding population; the problem will be a shortage of labor worldwide.
Still, this is a tremendously well written book. And to his credit Deffeyes discusses what the individual American citizen should do to make his or her life easier. (The author begins this portion of the book with the following sentence: "Lets have a private talk around the kitchen table.")
In short, this book is everything that "Hubbert's Peak" is not.
And its message is clear: We are finally running out of oil and as a result, we are headed for major dislocations in the world's economy.
Book Description
How much would you pay for a gallon of gas? $2.50? $10.00? Would you pay with the health of your lungs or with years taken from your lifespan?
The infamous "pain at the pump" runs much deeper than our wallets, argues Terry Tamminen, former Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency and current Special Assistant to California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Petroleum may power our cars and heat our homes, but it also contributes to birth defects and disorders like asthma and emphysema, not to mention cancer. In Lives Per Gallon, Tamminen takes a hard look at these and other health, environmental, and national security costs hidden in every barrel of oil.
While the petroleum industry is raking in huge profits, Tamminen shows, it is studiously avoiding measures that would lessen the hazards of its products. Using the successful lawsuits by state governments against big tobacco as a model, the author sets forth a bold strategy to hold oil and auto companies accountable and force industry reform. He also offers a blueprint for developing alternative energy sources based on California's real world experiences.
Certain to be controversial, Lives Per Gallon is an unblinking assessment of the true price of petroleum and a prescription for change. The choice is clear: continuing paying with our health, or kick our addiction and evolve beyond an oil-dependent economy.
Customer Reviews:
A Must Read for Citizens Concerned about Our Energy Future.......2007-05-19
Terry Tamminen has seen the ravages of big oil first hand in many places around the world. A skilled and engaging writer, he weaves his experiences into a compelling narrative that includes a lot of well documented research to make the case that the world must end its dependence on fossil energy in general and oil in particular. In his former role as California's Secretary of the Environment, Tamminen helped design and implement a series of initiatives that have made California a world leader in the emerging era of clean, renewably generated energy. Lives Per Gallon reports on the technology now available that will fight global warming and end our dependence on dirty energy. Tamminen shows that hydrogen, serving as a pollution free energy carrier, is a big part of the answer. I think he is right. This is a great read for anyone who wants to get involved and back a winner in the energy endgame.
a must read.......2007-05-07
Tamminen does a superb job of detailing how the oil industry has put the world in such a precarious position, both environmentally and human health wise, all just for corporate greed. He makes a startling comparison of the same actions taken by the tobacco industry that should make all users of petrolium think twice before continuing to support this destructive industry's path.
If anything, puts the problem too mildly.......2007-03-15
Terry Tamminen points out the stupendous costs of America's oil addiction. I certainly recommend the book, if only as a starting point for discussion. I found the section on hydrogen particularly interesting. I had been under the impression that hydrogen was more of a boondoggle pushed by the oil and gas companies than a serious transportation technology. I can't say that I'm convinced that hydrogen will play the large role that Tamminen thinks it will, but maybe there's some value there.
Tamminen misses entirely one of the largest contributors to the costs of our oil addiction: parking. Parking sounds harmless enough, but free and subsidized parking costs the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars every year. Most U.S. localities have parking requirements that require businesses and residences to provide a certain number of parking spaces. Everybody pays for providing and maintaining these spaces, even people who don't own a car. The result is that enormous amounts of land and money are wasted on parking lots and parking structures. Free parking works like a fertility drug for cars. For a more thorough discussion of this issue, I would suggest pairing Tamminen's book with Donald Shoup's "The High Cost of Free Parking."
The Ugly Truth About Fossil Fuel and More.......2006-12-25
Terry Tamminen has put together a monumental expose' of the true cost of our fossil fuel addiction and the U.S auto industry collusion to mislead both consumers and government alike on the health hazards of fossil fuel exhaust- not much different than tobacco smoke and that industry's playing-down the health risks of their products.
The history of oil use is well covered including wars and potential wars over it's control, government subsidies, fossil fuel contribution to global warming and the global crisis we face when the oil reserves run out. After reading about the multiple ways that fossil fuel consumption has polluted air, water and land, one is left with a feeling that the world oil supply will hopefully run out sooner than later.
Tamminen paints a bleak picture of the corruption and pollution of fossil fuel use, but he also gives positive coverage of the emerging clean/green ZEV (zero emission vehicles) technology such as electric, hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell propulsion and electric generating systems coupled with solar, wind, and photovoltaic systems to replace the out-dated fossil fuel systems. Also covered are the many things individuals can do on their own to reduce their personal energy consumption footprint, i.e., use low-watt bulbs, drive a hybrid or electric car and boycott wasteful products- buy green. Collectively, these actions add up and make a huge difference in total energy consumption while sending a strong message to the merchants of toxic products that their products are no longer desired.
Fantasic information but flawed conclusions.......2006-12-17
This is a great book and an easy read. I've never been a "environmentalist" so I'm not familiar with most of what was in this book, I've only recently started reading this kind of information and coming to believe that we really have to change. From that perspective, I thought what he was telling us about the health dangers of gasoline and oil, the similarities between those dangers and the dangers of tobacco, the similarities between the way big oil and auto respond to these dangers (and deny them) to the same behavior from big toboacco, were all things I'd never really thought of. And while we all probably know at some level the envorommental cost of oil drilling, he gave some pretty stark examples of where the 3rd world is being exploited to give us a few drops more thanks to their lack of regulations.
And the military cost of protecting our oil interests (or the costs of some other country trying to fill their own oil needs in the case of Japan and WWII) are things we all really need to think about in terms of deciding what our priorities are.
He lists some great, feasible options for putting our oil thirst on a diet and what we can do in the short and medium term to reduce oil dependence. But his flaws came in his suggestions that we essentially litigate the snot out of the oil companies much like we're done and are doing to tobacco. sorry. The only people that plan will benefit are the lawyers. And his main conclusion pushing us toward 1 single oil/fuel alternative seems to turn the end into a sales pitch.
Book Description
Praise for Future Energy
"Do not despair. Energy independence is in our future and this book has the road map! Bill Paul, one of the most astute observers of the energy scene, describes the new technologies that are taking us there and that will change our lives. A must-read book showing how business, citizens, and investors can take advantage."
—Consuelo Mack, Anchor and Managing Editor Consuelo Mack WealthTrack
Concerns over the availability and security of world energy supplies, especially when it comes to crude oil, have many people wondering what the future of this industry holds and how technology will continue to change it. Thanks to the energy technology revolution currently taking place, a promising "new" oil industry is quickly beginning to take shape-and it will, without a doubt, affect every company, household, and investor.
In Future Energy, author Bill Paul-a national energy and environmentaljournalist for more than thirty years-skillfully addresses the investment implications of this new oil industry and shows you how to profit from the changes that lie ahead. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Future Energy will introduce you to some of the most essential issues found within this new environment, including:
- The companies that will be counted on as the producers andinfrastructure providers of the new oil industry
- Why you should consider holding "oil shock" absorbing investmentsin your portfolio
- How electricity will become a new transportation fuel, providingunprecedented transportation fuel diversity
- The role that substitute liquid fuels (SLFs) will play in the newoil industry
- And much more
Customer Reviews:
Worse than amateur.......2007-09-14
Bill Paul wastes our time and money with this worse than worthless book. Here are a few examples of its problems:
- On page 1, Mr. Paul dismisses global warming as an "environmental anxiety", as though anyone concerned with global warming is suffering from a type of delusional and irrational phobia. Global warming is never brought up again (according to the index), as the author expounds on and extols such environmental horrors as oil from coal and oil from tar sands.
- In the one potentially redeeming chapter, "The Power of Efficiency", the author somehow recommends the Chevrolet Corvette as "the spirit that I feel must guide the new oil industry". Perhaps one can conjure up a worse symbol, such as a Mercury Navigator, but there are far better ones, such as the Toyota Prius.
- The same chapter starts with a diagram showing "Kilowatt Gasoline" as a type of efficiency, clearly a false representation.
- The author is so untechnical that he doesn't know the difference between power and energy.
The book is filled with so much misinformation, that the author should receive a negative royalty with each copy sold.
good but incomplete introduction.......2007-08-04
The reader should know that one purpose of this book is to give investors advice on companies to invest in. Mr. Paul hardly mentions solar or wind power, though in Denmark the wind provides 20% of the country's energy. The author believes that, except for a difficult transition period because we have failed to plan and with a few caveats, basically everything will be just fine. The author also believes that with more government control that things will be even better, despite the government's past failings in this area. The facts the author himself mentions would indicate a less rosy picture.
Nonetheless, I gave this book 3 stars. It is clearly written, not too abstract or technical; has a good glossary, index, appendixes and footnotes; and has a list of relevant internet web sites. The author states that one of his purposes is to open a discussion. I believe the author has succeeded in that area.
Excellent on some points, misses the boat on others.......2007-07-31
Bill Paul's book takes a stab at predicting what the energy sector of the future will look like. It's refreshing to see a journalist taking the future of energy seriously. I really like some of his analysis. For example, he calculates that if all the hidden subsidies were included, the cost of a gallon of gasoline would be at least $11 a gallon. These subsidies include such things as military expenditures, lost economic opportunities due to transfer of funds to oil-producing countries, and the like. Paul is certainly correct here. In my opinion, $11 a gallon is actually a lowball figure. For example, he says nothing about one of the most destructive forms of government subsidy, local regulation requiring the provision of certain numbers of parking spaces around businesses and residences. Most American localities have such regulations, which are known as parking requirements. The idea behind parking requirements is to make sure that free parking is always available. Unfortunately, the effect is to favor automobile travel over other forms of transportation, like walking, that don't require all that vehicle storage space. It's a form of enforced inefficiency. U.S. building codes also favor the automobile in other ways, such as by requiring very wide streets. Parking requirements are one of the main reasons why housing is so expensive in the U.S. The cost of parking requirements in the United States is in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year, which would shove up that per gallon price a few more dollars. For more on this, see Donald Shoup's book "The High Cost of Free Parking."
Paul assumes economic growth is a good thing. Economic growth is generally measured by GDP, which as a measure of well-being is so inaccurate as to be almost laughable. GDP is measured by counting up what is spent on various items. This works more or less OK if you're counting food bought by hungry people, but very poorly indeed if you're counting money spent on bombs or automatic rifles, or on parking garages for rich people's cars. GDP is not corrected for increasing population, pollution, exhaustion of natural resources, or declining quality of life. More accurate measures of economic growth, such as the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare or Genuine Progress Indicator, tend to show that there has been far less genuine economic growth than the official statistics suggest. For more on this, see McKibben's book "Deep Economy," Daly's "Beyond Growth," or Brian Czech's "Shoveling Fuel for a Runaway Train."
I think Paul is too optimistic on how easy it's going to be to make the switch to new technologies and keep our current American lifestyle going. Driving 90 minutes alone each day just to get back and forth to work in my opinion is not a viable option for the long-term future, no matter how efficient the car. The U.S. population is still climbing. None of Paul's proposals will work if this continues. Even if we managed to find a way to fuel all the existing cars with alternative fuels, it's very unlikely we could find enough to fuel cars for all the newcomers, not to mention housing, heat, lighting, etc. No matter how you look at it, a stable population is the first requirement for a sustainable economy. In the U.S. that means we have to take reducing immigration seriously. If we want to keep any semblance at all of the current U.S. lifestyle, we can't invite an unlimited number of people to this party.
Paul is excited by the possibility of converting garbage and other wastes to energy. I tend to disagree with him here. A great deal of the wastes we deal with today are themselves products of the age of cheap oil. An example is meat by-products, such as turkey offal. Cheap turkey is itself a product of cheap grains, which are produced using natural gas-based fertilizers and shipped long distances using diesel fuel. These products are not likely to be available for energy production in the future. For more on this see Kunstler's book "The Long Emergency."
Paul devotes a chapter to "Every Drop of Oil We Can Get is Important," discussing how to get more oil out of of the ground to meet demand. Paul has this completely backward. The more we push to get the last drop out of U.S. oil fields now, the sooner the earth's oil endowment will run out. Fossil fuels are the product of millions of years' worth of sunlight falling on ancient swamps. When they're gone, they're gone. We'd do better keeping them in the ground for a while longer. That oil will be worth a lot more in 50 or 100 years than it is today. What we need to be aiming for is the softest possible landing when making the transition away from fossil fuels. The sooner we start, the longer we'll have at least some of those fuels around to ease the transition.
Paul thinks raising gas taxes is a loser because of how Americans feel about their cars and trucks. He prefers a scheme known as Tradable Gasoline Rights, or TGR. I simply don't see the advantage of this over conventional gas taxes. I think a rise in gas taxes would work fine if it were carefully handled. The most important point is that it needs to be a tax shift, not a tax increase. Raise gas taxes while reducing income taxes, with the shift in tax types being dollar-for-dollar as closely as possible. Why would people object to this? After all, if they really wanted to, they could simply take their income tax savings and spend them on gas. We need to tax less things we want--like income and employment--and more of things we don't want--like fossil fuel use.
Paul also doesn't like gas taxes because they can hurt the poor. Wake up! Anyone who can afford a car these days probably isn't among the poor.
I really enjoyed Paul's analysis of the risk of large shocks in oil prices. This is a serious problem that doesn't get enough attention.
The High Cost of Free Parking
The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development
Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future
Shoveling Fuel for a Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful Spenders, and a Plan to Stop them All
Future energy provides realistic options for the future;by the time you are done, these expectations will be things of the past!.......2007-05-07
Though Future Energy by Bill Paul provides pheasible expectations for our country/planets energy future, I feel the book was too slow a read to be rated highly. Though the facts were good, I see this book as a waste of blank pages. I give this book a 2 star rating out of pity and respect for facts.
Book Description
The invasion of Iraq may well be remembered as the first oil currency war. Far from being a response to 9-11 terrorism or Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, Petrodollar Warfare argues that the invasion was precipitated by two converging phenomena: the imminent peak in global oil production, and the ascendance of the euro currency.
Energy analysts agree that world oil supplies are about to peak, after which there will be a steady decline in supplies of oil. Iraq, possessing the world's second largest oil reserves, was therefore already a target of U.S. geostrategic interests. Together with the fact that Iraq had switched its oil payment currency to euros -- rather than US dollars -- the Bush administration's unreported aim was to prevent further OPEC momentum in favor of the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency."
Meticulously researched, Petrodollar Warfare examines U.S. dollar hegemony and the unsustainable macroeconomics of "petrodollar recycling," pointing out that the issues underlying the Iraq war also apply to geostrategic tensions between the U.S. and other countries including the member states of the European Union (EU), Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. The author warns that without changing course, the American Experiment will end the way all empires end - with military over-extension and subsequent economic decline. He recommends the multilateral pursuit of both energy and monetary reforms within a United Nations framework to create a more balanced global energy and monetary system - thereby reducing the possibility of future oil depletion and oil currency-related warfare.
A sober call for an end to aggressive U.S. unilateralism, Petrodollar Warfare is a unique contribution to the debate about the future global political economy.
See review from Hopedance
Customer Reviews:
Interesting Book with Some Problems.......2007-08-31
This is a very good book for the first 5 chapters. It basically claims that the invasion of Iraq was instigated by the need of the Bush Administration to maintain the value of the US dollar by controlling the continuing international trade of oil in dollars.
Please note that the views that the author gives are little more than the summary of the work of other authors, which the author of the book freely admits. Also the views in the book are not independently verified anywhere else. So the first 5 chapters, although presenting a very plausible reason for the invasion of Iraq is largely a re-hash of previous authors work without proof of their position.
A good point about the book is that has many references so it is a good base for additional research.
The disappointment in the book is the last two chapters, which are a rambling view of why the US is headed down the wrong track in terms of monetary, foreign, energy, etc. policies. Some of the conclusions are interesting, while others are overly simplistic and naive.
All in all an interesting read for the first 160 pages.
A valid theory stretched a bit too far.......2007-06-01
This is an eye-opening and useful book, but narrow to a point that unfortunately becomes paranoid -- and a little outdated in some key premises. He essentially regards all US foreign policy in the last 30-40 years -- ALL of it -- as having the dual goal of ensuring the primacy of the US Dollar as the world currency standard, and to ensure access to (and now control over) oil. This became crystallized under Kissinger and increasingly militarized under the GOP and neoCon administrations, which he says have tied all domestic policy to the same albatross. He's definitely convinced me 100% we went in to Iraq only because of dollar/euro conflict and oil reserves.
The book was written shortly before the London and Madrid bombings, and reflects the then-European view that there was no clash of cultures or religiously-based jihad of any general concern -- that it was all a perfectly understandable socialist-nationalist reaction to US greed and power. That view is now understood in Europe to have been self-indulgently naive, although they are still appropriately uneasy about this administration's policies and actions. The EU is more aware than 2-3 years ago that a real dollar collapse will open world-wide economic disaster, and they will lose access to ME resources just as we would, not to mention the world's biggest consumer market, if the jihadis have their way.
Where Clark discusses the ongoing dollar-euro-Saudi oil situation, I think he's right on, and it's a clear, concise presentation of complex economic and political interactions. Tying in domestic changes in media control and homeland security/civil liberties solely to these two policy goals (dollar/oil) I think ignores way too many additional factors, economic and otherwise. It felt by the end like he's distorting an already damning perspective on our current foreign policy to force it to serve as a Unified Field Theory.
A summative work, focus on fall of dollar versus rise of euro.......2007-02-19
I was tempted to give this book only four stars, because as some reviewers suggest, it is mostly a summative work, drawing heavily on several books I have already reviewed, as well as a number of studies and article. In the end I decided to go with five stars because this is the only book I have found that really drew my attention to the turning point in US-Iraq relations: not Gulf I, but rather Iraq's declared intention to break the dollar monopoly and begin trading oil in Euros. Today of course we have Iran, Russia, and Venezuela trading in currencies other than the dollar.
First off, this is one of those rare books where in addition to carefully studying the table of contents, which is superbly devised, almost an executive summary on its own, you should also *first* read the End Notes and also the Afterword by LtCol Karen Kwiatkowski, now retired, who earned lasting recognition for resigning and challenging the lies coming out of the politically-appointed Pentagon officials.
Although this book is labeled by some (who would have us ignore it) as part of the "conspiracy" literature, I find myself reading more and more books in this vein, spanning 9-11, peak oil, corporate personality, and Wall Street-Washington corruption. I have to say, with all humility, if there is one privilege I would claim as the #1 Amazon reviewer of non-fiction, it is the privilege of stating clearly and on the record that this book, and other books in this vein, are NOT conspiracy literature, but rather the survivors, the vanguard that has avoided censorship. This book may not be perfect, it may overstate the case (personally I think Bush is as dim as Feith and did not understand the Euro issue while having a childish mind easily led by Dick Cheney), but it is part of an emerging literature that cannot be denied and must be given full attention.
The book highlights and reminds that we have lost the Republic to four interacting influences: concentrated wealth including perpeptual compounded wealth concealed in corporations improperly given personality rights; a completely corrupt Congress serving corporations rather than the public interest; the end of a free press with five media conglomerates happily practicing perception management on an ignorant and inattentive public; and a Federal Reserve that is not part of the government and not acting in the public interest, but instead creating credit out of thin air, and selling that to the government at a price that is both dear, and unconstitutional.
Having come late to much of this literature, the term "proto-fascism" was new to me, but it fits: Wall Street wealth, plus political corruption, plus a military too eager to follow orders without thinking. I remind all who care to understand a military perspective that General Smedley Butler's book, "War is a Racket," recounts his disdain for being a an "enforcer" for corporations.
The author of this book on petrodollar warfare does an excellent job of recounting the history of the dollar, setting the stage for both the end of the gold standard under Nixon, and the manner in which petrodollars from the 1970's were recycled as loans to the Third World.
There are two really superb charts from other sources in this book, one on page 105 showing "The Lie Factory" led by Dick Cheney and Doug Feith; and another on page 112 showing the claims by Cheney and others about Iraq having Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), both before (of course they do) and after (none found).
Today an attack on Iran looms. I have done everything I could as an individual citizen, including a protest package to the Senate, press releases, a fax to the Chief of Naval Operations and the Commandant of the Marine Corps, and a posting at OSS.Net of Howard Bloom's memorandum on a potential nuclear ambush by Iran, and Webster Tarpley's powerpoint on the fragile ground supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad. I share his view that the Siege of Baghdad will make the Siege of Stalingrad look like mercy killings. Think Black Hawk Down times a million.
This is a very fine book. It took me a year to notice it, but I will be more attentive now. New Society Publishers is in my view a national treasure. I admire them and will look forward to reading and reviewing many more books that they publish for the right reasons: to inform citizens and improve society.
must read.......2007-01-11
This book is a must read for anyone interested in what's really going on in the Middle East, not the BS version you get from the mainsteam media!
Refreshing the tree of liberty with the blood of tyrants (T. Jefferson).......2006-07-10
By analyzing the US policies behind the Iraq war, William R. Clark unveils the real reasons behind this illegal (R. Perle) invasion: maintain the US dollar as a world monopoly currency for oil and, in the era of Peak Oil, dominate the region with the world's largest remaining hydrocarbon reserves. The war in Iraq is also a currency war against the euro. S. Hussein's oil had to be paid in euros and a further momentum within OPEC for the euro had to be prevented at all costs.
A swift out of the dollar would force oil consumers to sell dollars for euros, provoking a dollar crash with as a result massive inflation, a possible run on the US banks and unserviceable budget and current account deficits. One of the 2 pillars of the US hegemony (military superiority and the dollar) would crumble.
By the way, Iran is planning a euro-based oil Bourse in Teheran.
At home, the author sees record trade gaps, record levels of financial leverage, of personal debt, of bankruptcies, of budget deficits and abysmal saving rates.
He sees a state governed by authoritarians, by a proto-fascist military-industrial-oil-Congressional complex: a circular relationship between wealth and political influence. An exploding defense budget for and `endless war' against an obscure group of non-state actors is a monumental but highly profitable aberration.
Behind the authoritarians at the helm stands the philosophy of Leo Strauss, a mixture of Carl Schmitt and Friedrich Nietzsche: 'Men can only be united against other people', and `Those who are fit to rule are those who realize that there is no morality and that there is only one natural right - the right of the superior to rule over the inferior.' In other words: war, not peace.
This end-justifies-the -means policies are gladly swallowed by the media monopolies which are divulging manipulated and filtered news and disseminating fear, the greatest ally of tyranny.
Fortunately, we have Internet, the last bastion of free speech and unfiltered news.
The (or, at least, most of the) remedies proposed by the author will be extremely hard to realize:
Nationally, restructuring of campaign financing, a viable energy strategy, massive reallocation of public funds away from military spending, revolutionary change in the political establishment.
Internationally, no pre-emptive wars, non-interference in the internal policies of foreign oil states, a balanced policy regarding Israel, repair the damaged relationship with former allies, fair trade, full participation in multilateral accords, a global monetary reform.
All in all, W. R. Clark has written a powerful, fascinating, disturbing but frank book.
A must read for all those interested in the future of mankind.
I also recommend the works of W. Engdahl, W.G. Tarpley, W. Klare and J.Dale Scott.
Average customer rating:
|
Energy in the Caspian Region: Present and Future
Manufacturer: Palgrave Macmillan
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
 Economic Policy & Development
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Real Estate
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Small Business & Entrepreneurship
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Oil & Energy
| Industries & Professions
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Look Inside Nonfiction Books
| Trip
| Specialty Stores
| Books
ASIN: 0333929594 |
Book Description
The Energy Reserves of the Caspian Region have been hailed as the new 'Middle East.' This book offers a thorough assessment of its energy resources and the nature of the international politics that surround them. This volume presents a unique study of the various dimensions of Caspian energy, ranging from the geopolitical to the economic, technical, religious, and political.
Book Description
Since oil is the primary fuel of global industrial civilization, its imminent depletion is a problem that will have profound impact on every aspect of modern life. Without international agreement on how to manage the decline of this vital resource, the world faces unprecedented risk of conflict and collapse.
The Oil Depletion Protocol describes a unique accord whereby nations would voluntarily reduce their oil production and oil imports according to a consistent, sensible formula. This would enable the task of energy transition to be planned and supported over the long term, providing a context of stable energy prices and peaceful cooperation. The Protocol will be presented at international gatherings, initiating the process of country-by-country negotiation and adoption, and mobilizing public support. To this end, this book:
- provides an overview of the data concerning Peak Oil and its timing
- briefly explains the protocol and its implications for the reader and for decision makers in government and industry around the world
- deals with frequently asked questions and objections, and
- looks forward to how the protocol can be adopted and how municipalities and ordinary citizens can facilitate the process.
Timely and critically important, The Oil Depletion Protocol is a must-read for policy makers and for all who seek to avert a Peak Oil collapse.
Listen to an interview with Richard Heinberg from WRPI.
Customer Reviews:
Overly optimistic.......2007-05-19
This book gives a good overview of peak oil. It's main thrust is the assumption that economics will not carry us through this turmoil, and only an early adoption of a "protocol" will save human from much crisis.
The logic behind this assumption is still lost on me, and I continue to seek a clearer picture of the future.
hopeful suggestion for a solution to the upcoming oil crisis.......2007-04-25
Of the many books now available that review peak oil, Richard Heinberg's "The Oil Depletion Protocol" is unique in that it outlines a practical solution to survival the upcoming energy crunch.
After reading a few books about the upcoming energy collapse, read this book to energize yourself with hopeful solutions. We should all read this book, think deeply, and get to work soon.
Bottom Line Deadly Serious.......2007-02-08
All of the non-fiction reading that I have done supports this author's presenation of both the consequences of doing nothing, and practical bottom line: a 3% reduction per year for the next ten to twenty years, of gross consumption (per capita is meaningless when the number of people are growing rapidly) of oil is the only way to transition gracefully.
Amazon visiters need to be aware that the oil industry, and Exxon in particularly, is applying considerable funds to pay for disinformation and misrepresentation. As Al Gore stated in his briefing to 10,000 Republicans in the Taco Bell Arena of Boise State University, the oil companies (less BP and Chevron) are adopting the precise strategy of the tobacco industry, seeking to turn facts into "theories" that are "in dispute."
Reality is not in dispute. What is in dispute is the ethics of the Exxon CEO, among others, who choose to lie to the American people and others and take credit for improving gas mileage when what is really needed is a massive turning away from the use of both oil and water.
This book is a great companion to "Peak Oil Survival," and discusses at the macro levels the implications of oil depletion.
I also like this book because at the back I found a page that informed me that the publisher, New Society Publishers, is both committed to books helpful to society, but that its use of recycled paper as a directly measureable benefit in saving 25 trees, 2,281 gallons of solid waste, 2,512 gallons of water, 3,276 kilowatt hours of electricity, 4,150 lbs of greenhouse gases, 18 lbs of HAPs, VOCs, and AOX combined, and 6 cubic yards of landfill space.
WOW. See my growing list on "true cost" information. Above is the "true cost" for books that do NOT use recycled paper.
Double-Barreled Ignorance.......2007-02-05
The two biggest assumptions discussed in this book are: 1) The world is running out of oil and 2) World governments can cooperate to bring peace and stability.
Let's start with the first assumption and look at some hilarious historical quotes:
1885, U.S. Geologic Society, "Almost no chance of finding oil in California."
1914, U.S. Bureau of Mines, "At most, the U.S. will run out of oil in 10 years."
1939, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, "US oil reserves will be exhausted in 13 years."
1951, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, "US oil reserves can only last 13 more years."
1970, the peak in U.S. oil production as environmental concerns limit any expansion.
1991, U.S. Geological Survey, "Texas and California are running out of oil."
And here we have the reality...
November 2005: 1.28 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world, the highest level that has ever been recorded. A crude oil price over $40 makes it financially viable to use many extraction methods to recover even more oil out of old wells that were "depleted" using older methods.
It is an entertaining hobby to predict the end of oil, but they are always wrong.
Now assumption number 2: governments will cooperate. I don't even know where to begin but I'll try; 70% of the world's oil is controlled by dictators; OPEC has never been able to control its own member states (let alone influence other countries); when money is involved - none of the 8 most influential countries in the world have agreed on anything; since Ghandi was assassinated, I haven't found a single politician interested in much beyond their own career, celebrity, or wallet; how are you going to get nations to cooperate when even the U.N. couldn't administer a little oil-for-food program without corruption and oil cheating amongst countries, politicians, individuals and companies - even the U.N. Secretary General's son profited!
These authors are living in a fantasy world so far from reality I don't know why you'd waste your time with their spin of facts.
A unique concept that deserves thought .......2006-12-21
Oil is the primary fuel of the world - and thus, vulnerable to terrorist efforts. THE OIL DEPLETION PROTOCOL: A PLAN TO AVERT OIL WARS, TERRORISM AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE does more than the usual charting of a known problem: it offers up solutions, reviewing data on peak oil production and describing an accord where nations would voluntarily reduce their production and imparts by an agreed-upon formula to enable energy transition planning and ultimately more stable prices. A unique concept that deserves thought and which is well planned, here!
Diane C. Donovan
California Bookwatch
Product Description
How you can help your family, neighborhood and community prepare for Peak Oil, climate change, and economic collapse. A practical handbook of ideas, suggestions, and book and Internet resources.
Customer Reviews:
Not quite as advertised.......2007-10-14
I have been reading this book, and am mostly through it - enough that I feel that I can render an opinion on this.
First, please note that I subscribe to the theory of peak oil - it's a question of when, not if - and ecological
living.
Having said that, the book frankly lacks focus and is somewhat sophomoric in its approach. It seemed less focus on life when energy is no longer affordable and more on promoting a certain view of how things should be. Really, he spends very little time writing and more time giving massive blocks of internet references that seemed to have passed his filter of political correctness than utility. For example - he talks about home power generation, and then appears to have ignored an all-purpose website - Home Power magazine -for reasons unknown, other than perhaps the magazine doesn't pass his concept of correctness (after all, it is available at Barnes and Noble). Another case in point - heirloom seeds. A very good idea - but his one source is some kind of communal seed outfit. A fast internet search shows a dozen or so outfits from Burpee on down. I'd prefer working with someone who actually tests their seeds in multiple environments.
Most of the book seems focused on socialized/communal living. For example, he promotes the idea of cohousing - which is fine - but his example is the N street housing complex in Davis California, which adapts the idea a couple of steps further where everyone proceeds to eat in communal settings. There are many other examples that can be found that may be more palable to ones living rather than be forced to come under someone's else's idea of political correctness.
Indeed, he talks about Cuba as a shining example of a country that has passed through Peak Oil, and how wonderful life is there now - ignoring one very obvious fact that Cuba has milder weather than most of the US - at least I am not aware of Havana having snow storms - which makes life much easier. And I didn't need a paragraph on how the US doesn't allow travelers to visit Cuba in a book about survival after peak oil.
Indeed, one of the things he promotes is moving to smaller communities - 5000 people or so. Somewhat elitist - I've run into many, many people who can barely keep food on the table and a roof on their heads, and somehow I cannot see them packing up into a beat up old car and driving to sunnier climes to an uncertain economic future.
Finally, he shows little imagination about how life may really be like when the crunch does hit. For example - one of the things he talks about is using the internet for communications after peak oil starts rippling through the economy. An interesting concept, given that there is a debate among people in information technology as to whether or not the internet is a massive energy hog. Certainly having to run multi-terabyte server farms 24/7 cannot be done with 300 watts.
This is not to say that the book won't get you thinking at least - it will - but some of the insitutional reviewers indicated that it was a blueprint for living after peak oil - I'd call it less of a blueprint and more of a sketch - with many details omitted and not well thought out.
One other thing - he promotes three big ideas - they are using compact flourescent bulbs, planting a garden, and biking to work - and all I can say is - "Duh".
Covers Basics and provides the links you need.......2007-08-13
I read this book because of my interest in peak oil and I enjoyed Mike Winter's coverage of the issues and the preparations that can be done to mitigate the effects of peak oil. I would recommend this book to anyone coming to the peak oil issue and wonders what they can do to prepare themselves.
A best buy.......2007-04-19
This is the scout's handbook--for grown ups. A best buy. It's not just for peak oil prep, but also for coming climate and economic changes. Effects of all three changes are already evident, and they're bound to increase soon.
A comprehensive (growing, preserving, and eating food, and dealing with waste; water; pet care; transportation) and far-reaching book (bartering; population; societal cycles). I also liked the tips on changing our individual behaviors that increase global problems.
By providing lots of online links to accessible information instead of filling space with lists and dense text, Winter used page space efficiently--organizing the layout and text for easy access.
Nothing New Here.......2007-03-24
The crisis literature is exploding and this is just one of the bombs. The pitch is simple and if you stop to ask yourself about the evidence in support of this henny penny school of doom, you will find little. The global warming is likely cyclical. Yes, oil will go up in price, no you can not change your life style without great risk. There will be changes (always are), we can not predict the adjustments that will work. We cope by getting out of debt and managing our lives conservatively, not by making radical life style shifts that we must undo later. Mick Winter does no one a service with his advice.
Jack Carpenter.
Less is More.......2007-03-11
I really enjoyed Mick's Peak Oil Prep. First, it is extremely clear and easy to read. Second, it provides simple, inexpensive and practical advice on what we can do, individually, to make a difference. Third, it can be read as a reference book or as a straight read. Reading nonfiction is often a chore for me, as I usually lose my thread of thought when I lay fact-based works down; this book has such short, independent sections that putting it down and picking it up again is a delight, rather than a chore. This is also aided by the sense of humor throughout the book. Thanks for a fun and useful book to guide us through the rough times. CGY
Average customer rating:
|
The Caspian Pipeline Dilemma: Political Games and Economic Losses
Hooman Peimani
Manufacturer: Praeger Publishers
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
Policy & Current Events
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Popular Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Development & Growth
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Economic Policy & Development
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Exports & Imports
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
International
| Economics
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Oil & Energy
| Industries & Professions
| Business & Investing
| Subjects
| Books
Relations
| International
| Politics
| Nonfiction
| Subjects
| Books
General
| Business & Finance
| New & Used Textbooks
| Stores
| Books
General
| Economics
| Business & Finance
| New & Used Textbooks
| Stores
| Books
All Amazon Upgrade
| Amazon Upgrade
| Stores
| Books
Business & Investing
| Amazon Upgrade
| Stores
| Books
Nonfiction
| Amazon Upgrade
| Stores
| Books
All Titles
| Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007
| Stores
| Books
ASIN: 0275970922 |
Book Description
The Caspian Sea region is rich in oil and natural gas and can potentially become a major energy supplier. Despite the interest of the three Caspian countries of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, their energy resources have remained mainly undeveloped a decade after their independence. The main factor that has prevented the full development of the Caspian energy resources has been the difficulty of selecting long-term safe, reliable, and economically viable export routes. The three landlocked Caspian countries have no choice but to depend on their neighbors to access international waters for their exports. For many reasons, including internal stability and extensive oil facilities and pipelines, Iran offers the most suitable routes to all three Caspian countries. However, despite the interest of the Caspian energy-exporters, in using this route, the U.S. policy of containment of Iran has prevented them from doing so. For political, economic, and security reasons, the existing in-use Georgian and Russian routes cannot and will not be a long-term solution for energy exports. The insistence of the American government on imposing the expensive and unreliable Turkish route on the reluctant Caspian energy-exporters and its categorical rejection of the Iranian route have created a major obstacle to the development of the Caspian energy industries. As Peimani suggests, if this policy continues, many oil and gas exporters will opt for the Iranian route without regard to existing U.S. punitive legislation. The results could well be the isolation of the U.S. in the Caspian region and a gradual exclusion of American oil companies from the region. This overview will be of interest to scholars, researchers, and policymakers involved with economic and political issues of the region.
Book Description
Financial guru Stephen Leeb shows how following oil prices can lead investors to real financial security. A storm is coming-an inflationary 'perfect storm' whipped up by skyrocketing oil prices that will lay waste to millions of portfolios if investors don't prepare.Renowned financial advisor Stephen Leeb asserts that in this perilous period, oil prices will drive all other economic indicators. But there is a way to diversify away from disaster, by dedicating a significant part of one's portfolio to real assets that keep their value relative to inflation. Here, Leeb helps readers pick the 'energy-producer star performers,' and reveals the 'double payoff' to investing in metals like platinum and silver. He also explains why the stocks of 'mega-insurers' are a safe bet, and shows how investing in real estate does not have to mean actually owning it. Filled with sound advice for an unstable marketplace, this is the book no one with a 401K can afford to miss.
Download Description
Financial guru Stephen Leeb sees a storm coming—an inflationary "perfect storm" that will lay waste to millions of portfolios if investors don't prepare ahead of time. In this perilous period, it will be essential to pay attention to the price of oil, because as prices fluctuate, so, too, will the economy. As Foreign Affairs recently pointed out, to support the world's population, oil production must rise in the next 20 years from 75 million barrels a day to 125 million—a 66% increase! And yet all over the world—from the North Sea to Mexico to Venezuela—come reports of production capacity maxing out. Even an American victory in Iraq could only mean a 1% rise in capacity in the short term. Result: pressure to raise output will mean higher production costs, which will mean vastly more expensive oil. Higher energy costs mean depressed growth for most companies (the exception being energy producers) and rising prices undermine the value of bonds. But there is a way to diversify away from disaster: by dedicating a significant part of one's portfolio to real assets that keep their value relative to inflation. Here, Stephen Leeb will help readers pick the "energy-producer star performers," reveal the "double payoff" to investing in metals like platinum and silver, explain why the stocks of "mega-insurers" are a safe bet, and show how investing in real estate does not have to mean actually owning it.
Customer Reviews:
Good advice and a powerful message.......2007-09-12
The book offers good investment and economics advice. It is well documented and researched. A little bit redundant at the beginning but once it gets to the point it is quite straightforward. Overall, good reading material and advice.
ps: I never noticed the author had an investment fund until I read it in one of the reviews below.
Good book.......2007-02-23
Good book on investing using oil costs as a guide.
A little pessimistic about the future, yet certainly plausible and possible.
Powerful & Vital.......2006-08-17
Having read numerous books on Peak Oil, I can honestly say that this one is unique.
The authors have a very simple and engaging writing style. They explain in concise terms the concept of Peak Oil, and how this will affect the global economy and stock markets.
The book is filled with invaluable advice and great ideas on where to hold your investments in the times ahead.
Peak Oil will bring dramatic changes to our world, but this book creates a positive vision - one that shines through the usual doom and gloom scenarios that are painted by other Peak Oil authors.
Essential reading.
Bubble, Bubble, Who's in Trouble?.......2006-05-21
Calling this book an eye opener will be a major understatement. It provides some of the fascinating analysis on the upcoming Oil crisis and its affect on everything ... right from your pocketbook to the world economy. Based on its analysis, it speculates on some of the repercussions on personal behaviour, defense and drive towards alternative energies. Additionally it suggests some interesting ideas that can help us protect & grow our portfolio as an Investor.
Some key takeaways ...
* Oil is going to hit $100+ a per barrel in the near future.
* Obviously Oil related companies are going to benefit.
* Automotive companies that make fuel efficient cars will benefit. (my extension ... companies making bigger and bulkier hulks will march towards extinction.)
* Alternative energy seeking companies will benefit.
* Interestingly key defense related companies might benefit.
The authors have put their ideas in a nice and lucid manner. The book progresses from analysis to possible strategies to counter Oil crisis using their Oil Indicator. (One personal recommendation... start the book from last chapter and progress towards the 1st chapter in reverse. You will better understand and appreciate what the authors are recommending and why they are recommending). The chapters have been written in perfect bite sizes. I liked the summary of the chapter in the key points format.
Although this book was written in 2003, I see most of the predictions coming true. Oil has already touched $75+ and regressed a little bit. For individual consumers, $4 per gallon of gas is not far away.(I remember paying $1 something just some years back. Currently it stands at $3 something ... whopping 200% increase.)
-Sachin
The Fear Factor - Beware of this book........2006-03-27
I read this book with great excitement. Not only does Leeb predict a great tumoil for the world but he tells you how to get fabulously rich off it. After finishing this and doing my homework, I have developed some doubts.
This book is divided into two sections. 1) The world is running out of oil which will cause inflation and finally deflation. 2) This is how you can profit if this happens.
While it is true that we will eventually run out of oil, nobody really knows when. The people who have the best data, the best access and the best training to study this issue , the US Geological survey, the oil companies and the Saudi petroleum engineers put this date at about 2040. The Peak Oil cult that has developed assumes that this is wrong and that we will really run out of oil in 200X where X is usually 5 or 7 or so but this moves back every year that it doesn't happen. This Peak Oil movement is incredibly persistant and has lots of websites to convince you that they are right. However, they probably aren't. Notice that they are never actually petroleum engineers or scientists. Many are just people who have made a career out of this idea. Some are people like goldbugs who will profit from people buying into this idea. If they are scientists they are fringe or scientists who have no respect in their fields. Leeb for example runs an investment fund. He is no position to tell you how much oil we have left. Neither are these people who write books on this. They just don't have data so they assume the worst and sell books. While some of these people in the PO movement are more moderate and have good intentions, many are fascists, leftists and people who just plain hate capitalism and hate America and want it to be destroyed. See this blog for more info
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/
On to part 2. One thing that has happened is that oil prices have gone up. The reason why probably has nothing to do with Peak Oil. It is probably due to the Chinese and Indian economies growing faster than economists in the oil industry estimated and so we have run low on short term reserves. Also Katrina and some other supply problems. However the good part of this book is that it correctly forcasted what would happen if oil prices rise. Leeb was bang on with just about all of his predictions. If you invested the way he told you too you could have doubled your money in the last two years or possibly even more. Oil company stock is up, gold is up, oil service companies are up. Other stocks are down. Three cheers for Leeb. Fortunately for him, he got lucky. Oil prices may now go back down and so will these gains.
What you should take out of this book is what you should do if you think oil prices will rise. You should NOT decide that oil prices will rise based on info in this book. That would be making an outright speculation on future oil prices. There are billions of dollars worldwide invested in trying to guess which way oil prices will go. There are billions of investor dollars riding on this. This is not something that people ignore. If it was so obvious that oil prices will rise, then oil futures would already be this high. You cannot expect to read some book and get a better insight into this than the people who spend full time analyzing these issues for their billionaire investment clientel.
Is Leeb an unbiased source on this? NO. He runs a mutal fund which invests in the oil companies that he describes in his book. He wants people to buy these stocks so that his fund will prosper. Pretty simple. Fear sells. In addition you should notice how high the fees are to join this fund. They have complicated scheme where you have to pay like 20% of your earnings if you make a profit. Sounds like they are making a gamble on a speculation. If oil prices go up, they make a fortune on fees. If oil prices go down, they lose nothing. Not so for the people who buy into this. I wonder if Leeb is investing his own personal money in this fund? I doubt it. I would suggest diversifying outside of energy stocks as well as owning some of them. You can't afford to risk your whole savings on this speculative idea.
One last point. One might ask why aren't the oil companies, the Saudis and the petroleum industry professionals coming out and debating these Peak Oil people? If Peak Oil is bogus, why doesn't ExxonMobile have a webpage giving all of the reasons why it is all bogus. Doesn't that prove that they have no agument?
You might have guesed the answer. They love Peak Oil. The fears of an oil shortage drives up the price of oil and therefore their company profits. Why would they go out of their way to calm people's fears when it just would reduce their profits. People in the indurstry think that fears of an oil shortage add about 20% to the price of oil. The Saudis as well as Chavez take every opprotunity to spook the public about oil shutdowns. It just brings in more money. They often call this the fear factor which might be a better title to this book.
In conclusion. Oil prices might go up so you should own some of these companies. Buying gold is a pure speculation. Maybe a good idea but don't overdo it. Gold just keeps up with inflation in the long run. It is only an inflation hedge. Many of the companies Leeb recommends are just standard S&P 500 companies. ExxonMobile, GE, Toyota etc and can't be bad to own anyway. Others such as Devon Energy , Suncore Energy, Schlumberger MAY now be wildly overpriced. Hard to say. They are very leveraged to the price of oil and so may go down by a lots. Playing it safe is probably a wiser tactic. Berkshire Hathaway is of course a great company and always will be. Whether or not it is now fairly priced in beyond my knowledge. One might want to consider other stocks that do well if a recession happens like cigarette companies. People will always smoke. Also pay more attention to the housing bubble. That is probably a bigger threat right now than an oil shock.
Books:
- The Euro, 2nd Edition
- The Fair Tax Book: Saying Goodbye to the Income Tax and the IRS
- The Halo Effect: ... and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers
- The Impossible Will Take a Little While: A Citizen's Guide to Hope in a Time of Fear
- The Innocent Man: Murder and Injustice in a Small Town
- The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns (Little Book Big Profits)
- The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else
- The Offshore Nation: Strategies for Success in Global Outsourcing and Offshoring
- The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis
- The Origins of the Cold War, 1941 - 1949, Third Edition
Books Index
Books Home
Recommended Books
- Designing Dynamic Organizations: A Hands-On Guide for Leaders at All Levels
- The Adventures of Tintin - Red Rackham's Treasure / The Seven Crystal Balls / Prisoners of the Sun
- Lighting for Film and Digital Cinematography
- Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Dictionary
- Making Faces
- The Friars Club Encyclopaedia of Jokes: 2,000 One-Liners, Straight Lines, Stories, Gags, Roasts, Rib
- Pets in America: A History
- Effective Writing: Handbook for Accountants
- Financial Analysis for Development: Concepts and Techniques
- Pasion De Historia
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak
The Party's Over: Oil, War And The Fate Of Industrial Societies
PowerDown: Options And Actions For A Post-Carbon World
The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
