The Art of Innovation: Lessons in Creativity from IDEO, America's Leading Design Firm
Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
  • Kudos to Ideos
  • Innovation for All
  • Innovation and creativity "how-to" guide
  • El arte de innovar estilo IDEO
  • Skip it and go right to 10 Faces
The Art of Innovation: Lessons in Creativity from IDEO, America's Leading Design Firm
Tom Kelley , Tom Peters , and Tom Peters
Manufacturer: Currency
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0385499841
Release Date: 2001-01-16

Amazon.com

IDEO, the world's leading design firm, is the brain trust that's behind some of the more brilliant innovations of the past 20 years--from the Apple mouse, the Polaroid i-Zone instant camera, and the Palm V to the "fat" toothbrush for kids and a self-sealing water bottle for dirt bikers. Not surprisingly, companies all over the world have long wondered what they could learn from IDEO, to come up with better ideas for their own products, services, and operations. In this terrific book from IDEO general manager Tom Kelley (brother of founder David Kelley), IDEO finally delivers--but thankfully not in the step-by-step, flow-chart-filled "process speak" of most how-you-can-do-what-we-do business books. Sure, there are some good bulleted lists to be found here--such as the secrets of successful brainstorming, the qualities of "hot teams," and, toward the end, 10 key ingredients for "How to Create Great Products and Services," including "One Click Is Better Than Two" (the simpler, the better) and "Goof Proof" (no bugs).

But The Art of Innovation really teaches indirectly (not to mention enlightens and entertains) by telling great stories--mainly, of how the best ideas for creating or improving products or processes come not from laboriously organized focus groups, but from keen observations of how regular people work and play on a daily basis. On nearly every page, we learn the backstories of some now-well-established consumer goods, from recent inventions like the Palm Pilot and the in-car beverage holder to things we nearly take for granted--like Ivory soap (created when a P&G worker went to lunch without turning off his soap mixer, and returned to discover his batch overwhipped into 99.44 percent buoyancy) and Kleenex, which transcended its original purpose as a cosmetics remover when people started using the soft paper to wipe and blow their noses. Best of all, Kelley opens wide the doors to IDEO's vibrant, sometimes wacky office environment, and takes us on a vivid tour of how staffers tackle a design challenge: they start not with their ideas of what a new product should offer, but with the existing gaps of need, convenience, and pleasure with which people live on a daily basis, and that IDEO should fill. (Hence, a one-piece children's fishing rod that spares fathers the embarrassment of not knowing how to teach their kids to fish, or Crest toothpaste tubes that don't "gunk up" at the mouth.)

Granted, some of their ideas--like the crucial process of "prototyping," or incorporating dummy drafts of the actual product into the planning, to work out bugs as you go--lend themselves more easily to the making of actual things than to the more common organizational challenge of streamlining services or operations. But, if this big book of bright ideas doesn't get you thinking of how to build a better mousetrap for everything from your whole business process to your personal filing system, you probably deserve to be stuck with the mousetrap you already have. --Timothy Murphy

Book Description

IDEO, the widely admired, award-winning design and development firm that brought the world the Apple mouse, Polaroid's I-Zone instant camera, the Palm V, and hundreds of other cutting-edge products and services, reveals its secrets for fostering a culture and process of continuous innovation.

There isn't a business in America that doesn't want to be more creative in its thinking, products, and processes. At many companies, being first with a concept and first to market are critical just to survive. In The Art of Innovation, Tom Kelley, general manager of the Silicon Valley based design firm IDEO, takes readers behind the scenes of this wildly imaginative and energized company to reveal the strategies and secrets it uses to turn out hit after hit.

IDEO doesn't buy into the myth of the lone genius working away in isolation, waiting for great ideas to strike. Kelley believes everyone can be creative, and the goal at his firm is to tap into that wellspring of creativity in order to make innovation a way of life. How does it do that? IDEO fosters an atmosphere conducive to freely expressing ideas, breaking the rules, and freeing people to design their own work environments. IDEO's focus on teamwork generates countless breakthroughs, fueled by the constant give-and-take among people ready to share ideas and reap the benefits of the group process. IDEO has created an intense, quick-turnaround, brainstorm-and-build process dubbed "the Deep Dive."

In entertaining anecdotes, Kelley illustrates some of his firm's own successes (and joyful failures), as well as pioneering efforts at other leading companies. The book reveals how teams research and immerse themselves in every possible aspect of a new product or service, examining it from the perspective of clients, consumers, and other critical audiences.

Kelley takes the reader through the IDEO problem-solving method:

>Carefully observing the behavior or "anthropology" of the people who will be using a product or service

>Brainstorming with high-energy sessions focused on tangible results

>Quickly prototyping ideas and designs at every step of the way

>Cross-pollinating to find solutions from other fields

>Taking risks, and failing your way to success

>Building a "Greenhouse" for innovation

IDEO has won more awards in the last ten years than any other firm of its kind, and a full half-hour Nightline presentation of its creative process received one of the show's highest ratings. The Art of Innovation will provide business leaders with the insights and tools they need to make their companies the leading-edge, top-rated stars of their industries.

Customer Reviews:

5 out of 5 stars Kudos to Ideos.......2007-08-28

Excellent book with good insights. If you are in the business of innovation, this is one book that you shouldn't miss. I also recommend EIGHTSTORM: 8-Step Brainstorming for Innovative Managers.

5 out of 5 stars Innovation for All.......2007-06-29

Through anecdotes, Kelley demonstrates how stumbling blocks to innovation can be overcome. He shows an appreciation for experimentation, momentum, and embraces failure as a true path to knowing. Failed prototypes are wonderful learning tools. Kelley's perspective keeps spirits high. He leaves much of the innovative process open ended - nearly encouraging innovation on innovating.

Interestingly, Kelley notes how medicine is becoming personalized and that the future can not be perfectly predicted. Still, he says we must aim at it. This was an important nugget of wisdom for me, a research coordinator at a think-tank-like public health research group, the Healthcare Innovation and Technology lab at Columbia University. On a daily basis we deal with innovation to improve healthcare and need to effectively innovate. Given that we tread a very specific territory - health and technology - and that Kelley's book could be so useful to us, it is obvious that he really has something to offer to everyone.

4 out of 5 stars Innovation and creativity "how-to" guide.......2007-06-07

The Art of Innovation explains many of IDEO's creative techniques and in so doing paints a picture of the physical context in which all that creativity occurs, namely IDEO's office, your average geek's idea of paradise brimming with high-tech prototypes, foam cubes, "tech box" caddies with giant Post-Its and coloring pens ... and yes, it does look more like a playschool than Dilbertesque gray cubicle-land. Teamwork, friendship and a shared passion for helping clients innovate is clearly what binds people together and stimulates their creativity, while a supportive and forgiving management structure doesn't just tolerate weirdness, it actively encourages it. IDEO seems to have taken Tom Peters' advice "If you want to do weird, hire weird people" to the next level. In IDEO-land, "normal" people would probably stand out a mile.

Two creative techniques - brainstorming and prototyping - are particularly well described, in a way that encourages the reader to try something different. I've learnt some new tricks and even started applying them since reading the book.

5 out of 5 stars El arte de innovar estilo IDEO.......2007-06-01

IDEO ha hecho de la innovación un arte, el cual es un proceso sistematizado, con pasos muy definidos, congruentes y faciles de llevar por las personas que conforman dentro sus empresas los equipos de innovacion y diseño.

3 out of 5 stars Skip it and go right to 10 Faces.......2007-03-19

I recently read both this book and the Ten Faces of Innovation. My recomendation is to skip this book. It is written more like an advertisement for IDEO and was left feeling like Tom has crossed the line into arrogance. If you read it as a stand alone book there is a lot of useful information. However most of the concepts are covered in Ten Faces. If you have time read both books but if time is of the essence then jump right into the Ten Faces, you won't be disappointed.
Service Management: Operations, Strategy, Information Technology with Student CD
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    Average customer rating: 4.5 out of 5 stars
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    Customer Reviews:

    4 out of 5 stars A good solid supply chain basics book.......2006-05-23

    We use this book for supply chain training to new entrants at our firm. It is quite a good supply chain basics book - covering the topic in all its breadth. the coverage is perhaps a slightly less strategic and more technical than our needs - but that is understandable given the background of one of the authors. However, to be fair, it is the best book that we have found on supply chain management to get the people up to speed on the basics.

    4 out of 5 stars Price too high.......2004-08-25

    What I got was a second Indian Reprint, it costs around $4 in India, but I had to pay around $35 (shippment not inlcuded in this amount)! What an arbitrage!

    5 out of 5 stars Good reference material for practitioners.......2003-02-17

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    The sections that are most well developed are the ones on inventory management and transportation logistics, where I found examples that were directly applicable to situations I encountered in a retail environment. The portion on forecasting was not as useful, and the part on e-business seemed somewhat contrived. Overall, this is the best reference I have found that does not require a heavy amount of mathematical familiarity.

    4 out of 5 stars Excellent book overall but..........2003-01-08

    I refered and used this book in 2 grad level courses. The first was a business school course on SCM (with an above average quantitative focus for a B-school course) and again for a fully quatitative SC Engineering course. While I was initially very impressed with the book, using this over 2 semesters has raised a few gripes.

    For the qualitative issues on SCM {make no mistake, these 'fluff' aspects are very important} there is no other equal. Chopra and Meindl do an outstanding and comprehensive job. They also bring out the importance of using scientific, quantitative techniques for SCM. This however is where my gripes start.

    Having brought out the importance of quantitative tools for use in SCM, they do only a moderate job on explaining these tools. For example, the chapter on forecasting (only the most simple and commonly used models are explained) is unnnecessarily complex and confusing. The topics covered are adequete but need revision. Treatment of inventory management also could be more detailed and better explained.

    This is an excellent book but for more comprehensive learning (if you want an understanding of the quantitative aspects too), I think this book needs supplementing (say with course notes) or another book like "Modeling the Supply Chain" by Shapiro.

    5 out of 5 stars Peter Meindl - The Godfather of modern supply chain mgt.......2001-11-27

    Written by one of the leading minds in the field, Peter Meindl of I2 technologies has a lot to teach. This is an excellent text and as a fellow Dallas/Ft. Worth resident, I would enjoy meeting him. If you are an MBA student with a concentration in Operations Management, this text should be required.

    Meindl, a management team member of I2, has helped develop I2 into the undisputed champion in enterprise software. While SAP may have the market share with their archaic DOS based application, I2 has windows functionality and everything that matters. They have raised the bar with their supply chain knowledge, leading solutions, and collaborative knowledge in supply chain strategy. This text will give you a big step forward in becoming a Supply Chain leader.
    History: Fiction or Science? (Chronology, No. 1)
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    ASIN: 2913621058

    Book Description

    Recorded history is a finely-woven magic fabric of intricate lies about events predating the sixteenth century. There is not a single piece of evidence that can be reliably and independently traced back earlier than the eleventh century. This book details events that are substantiated by hard facts and logic, and validated by new astronomical research and statistical analysis of ancient sources.

    Customer Reviews:

    3 out of 5 stars Calculations are only as good as your numbers.......2007-08-03

    Yes, we can all agree that mainstream history is nearly 100% BS due to politics, economics, ego, problems with dating techniques, and various conspiracies. Agreed. But, I've been researching the distinct possibility that human history (in terms of civilizations) are much more ancient than we've been told, so coming across this book was very interesting to me. I wondered how Fomenko could be wrong (if at all) because he is very persuasive in his presentations. Then it dawned on me. If at previous times in prehistory, due to the various catastrophies that are well documented (comets, asteroids, planetary disruptions, plasma discharge, pole reversals, etc) the Earth was in a different position in relation to the sun, different tilt on its axis, different orbit, different rotation (in terms of velocity and DIRECTION), and the continents were in different positions, then would this not cause the ancients to see the sky (constellations) differently? In other words, is Fomenko making erronious assumptions about the physics of the Earth in pre-history, which then corrupt his data with regards to dating the relevant astrology? The last event to seriously disrupt our planet occured roughly 3500 years ago, according to other good researchers, so is it possible Fomenko has been confused by this? The vastly different physics of our planet in the not so distant past may explain this confusion, which is not to say the "mainstream" version of history is correct; on the contrary. I am not an expert in these fields, but wanted to see if this idea could spark discussion.

    5 out of 5 stars Pants on fire?.......2007-07-19

    Will people ever read before spamming? Yes, Jesuits could not rewrite world history alone, they had help. Anyway, Dr Prof Acad A.Fomenko does not point to jesuits as the driving force of world wide history manipulation in published volumes 1,2,3;, actually he barely mentions the poor devils. Check it with 'Search inside' feature, please. China is rarely mentioned either, in fact, Dr Fomenko is completely eurocentric. Right, his theory contradicts all mainstream schools of history, because in their actual state they are all built on blatantly erroneus chronology. You don't need a mysterious cabal (conspiracy) to falsify history, the falsification is its modus operandi. It is inherent to history(ians) to falsify (distort) events, as it is inherent to humans to boast as it is inherent to power (authority) to legimize itself by referrring to glorious past made to its own order. Dr Prof Fomenko and team have identified scores of instances of such manipulation in Russian, European, etc.. history, and delivered valid statistical proof thereof. His own 'reconstruction' is completely another story. Forget c14 as a valid method of dating. W.Libby has initially discovered a brilliant method of INDEPENDENT dating. Too bad, c14 method has become a joke after a forced marrige with dendrochronology with consensual chronological scale inbuilt. Radiocarbon method can't stand blind tests, but is so very productive as a rubberstamp.

    5 out of 5 stars Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed. .......2007-04-09

    There is no doubt that history as most know it is a sham, & institution's version of History both University & Church is fradulent & inaccurate. Everything was established with an agenda, The real "Dark Ages" are now when we have access to incredible amounts of information past authorities & more important 'common folk' didn't have but our institutions & educators are slow to evolve because of what has ignorantly & arrogantly been taught for too long. This is on many subjects not just Chronology.

    For anyone to question "Why would a Mathematician have anything credible to say of History?" The answer is from Dr. Fomenko's preface in the book: "It would be worthwhile to remind the reader that in the XVI-XVII century Chronology was considered to be a subdivision of Mathematics." These volumes could possibly be some of the most important works to date & should be read by everyone with an interest in History, especially professors & educators who have a duty to the public. I have read both books & must say that 'Chronology 1' has some very eye opening & revolutionary information. Even if these volumes are part true the implications are profound & opens the doors to further investigations & questions which must be done. I speak several different lanquages & must say the logic Dr. Fomenko uses with "inflection" of words & words being read from left to right in one region & right to left in another then written backwards, the removal of vowels & get down to basics of words, or different cities & locations having the same name etc. is correct. Vowel usage has always been optional & varied, actually complicating linquistics & study. The first thing one has to understand is that words never had a fixed spelling in history like we do now, the spelling of words was mutable & regional, as well as names & titles of people were vast, varied & changed, NOTHING WAS FIXED or understood linear. Matters of Life & Death as well as financial profiteering yesterday & today were & are made with ignorant, illogical & conspiratorial views of history & reality, it's time people get closer to the Truth & society collectively grow up.

    5 out of 5 stars Very Interesting.......2007-03-07

    It is a good proposal and I believe it will mature into something even better in the future. I think it deserves to be read.

    4 out of 5 stars History as Science Fiction.......2007-01-10

    Anatoly Fomenko has written a very intriguing book, full of pictures, charts, and computer 'proof' of his thesis: backwards of AD900 we don't really know what happened or when. Between AD900 and AD1600 there is more certainty, but there is still a lot of fuzzy ground, and things don't get reliable until we get past the 1600's where the printing press made it very difficult for the perpetrators of this timeline manipulation to change anything that had been committed to print. The Dark Ages did not happen. Books were burned for a reason. One organization has doubled the actual length of its existence by expanding the real chronology. Read why.

    I had always wondered why Christ died about AD33 and yet men waited until the 11th century to form the Knights Templar, the Cathars, etc and go after the Holy Land by force. Why the 1000 year gap? Turns out there wasn't more than a 10-12 year gap and he proves it using astronomy. This also implies that the planet is not as old as we have been told, and current Christian and other creationist scientists are already championing that idea without being aware of Fomenko's book. The two groups, creationist scientists and the Russian mathematical analysts corroborate each other. Fascinating.

    Of course, all this flies in the face of what we have been told traditionally is the 'proper' chronology of western civilization, and most readers will experience 'cognitive dissonance' in reading this book. It means that our history going backwards from AD1600 becomes progressively more incorrect and unreliable until it cannot be trusted at all... in the space of 700-800 years.

    Naturally, the curious, open-minded reader will want to know WHO did this, WHY, and did any of the events we think of as really ancient ever happen?
    Dr. Fomenko is a respected scientist/mathematician at Moscow State University who has already answered these questions to the satisfaction of his initially skeptical colleagues. Most of them are now believers, a few still refuse to believe (the usual diehards), and of course the western press has ignored Fomenko's work -- for obvious reasons when you read the book. The ones who perpetrated this chronology ruse have a lot to answer for. They are still with us. That's why this book is a well-kept secret.

    I gave the book a 4-star rating because I was unable to check out some of his claims; those I checked were as he said. But if even 1/3 of his claims are true, this punches a big hole in what we think is our history, the meaning of western civilization, our educational process (for repeating the ruse as gospel), and the trustworthiness of the organization that perpetrated this ruse, well-intentioned or not.

    This book relates to current research into a Young Earth paradigm, to John Keel's discoveries about our planet, and Fr Malachi Martin's insights (in his now out-of-print books). We are indeed sheep who are manipulated and kept ignorant -- for a reason. While knowing what these men have to say may be the "booby prize" (as in: 'what can you do with this knowledge?'), it will provide interesting reading. Didn't someone say: "...and the Truth will set you free."?? For you to judge if this book contains the truth.
    Call Center Technology Demystified: The No-Nonsense Guide to Bridging Customer Contact Technology, Operations and Strategy
    Average customer rating: 5 out of 5 stars
    • This book is okay
    • Technology Demystified and Explained
    • Essential book for Contact Center leaders!
    • Practical guide to call center technology
    • Clear, Compelling, Insightful
    Call Center Technology Demystified: The No-Nonsense Guide to Bridging Customer Contact Technology, Operations and Strategy
    Lori Bocklund , and Dave Bengtson
    Manufacturer: Call Center Press
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Paperback

    GeneralGeneral | Telecommunications | Engineering | Professional & Technical | Subjects | Books
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    ASIN: 0970950780

    Book Description

    Call Center Technology Demystified clarifies the sometimes complex and often confusing array of technologies that enable call center success. This book will lead you through the labyrinth of customer contact technology jargon, common misperceptions and marketing hype to help you align technology with business needs and optimize your technology investments.

    Customer Reviews:

    3 out of 5 stars This book is okay.......2007-02-10

    I am sure there are better books on call centers. This book was only okay. If you are just trying to learn the terminology, then this book probably isn't a bad choice for you.

    4 out of 5 stars Technology Demystified and Explained.......2003-11-17

    One of the best call center books on the market, Call Center Technology Demystified gives a practical explanation of call center technologies in language a non-techie person can understand. We have found it valuable in our call center in helping our management team understand what to purchase and how to get the most out of their technology investment. Good work!

    5 out of 5 stars Essential book for Contact Center leaders!.......2003-03-01

    I have what I feel is a pretty extensive contact center reference library that I have accumulated over the past 15 years, ranging from call center design, CRM, CTI, speech recognition, benchmarking, telecom, etc. By far, the Call Center Technology Demystified book is THE book that I find myself referring to most often. Besides the holistic view of the contact center technologies, I have found the sections on Building a Customer Contact Technology Strategy and Information and Applications Bring CRM Strategies to Life sections to be valuable every day, every project. Great diagrams and charts add tremendous value to the clear and concise writing. This is also a book that will stand the test of time; the principles surrounding business drivers and the realistic expectations regarding CRM will provide value to contact center strategists for many years.

    4 out of 5 stars Practical guide to call center technology.......2002-12-27

    I have always been impressed with the fact that Lori and Dave view call center technology (and call centers in general) from a strategic viewpoint. Everything they do starts with asking overall business strategy questions. Call Center technology will only really be effective if it supports the overall business objectives. This is how Lori and Dave approach their consulting work, the seminars they conduct and how they approached writing this book. One of the great practical elements to this book, in each chapter there are numerous tables summarizing the strengths/weaknesses, pro/con, advantages/limitations for numerous elements of call center technology. I found these tables to be very useful, not only as a synopsis of what they just got done saying but also as a tool for a quick reference and a framework in formulating your decision making process. They also give examples of what the technology vendors will say about the technology so you as the technology buyer have a much better idea of how the vendors view and approach the technologies they are trying to sell you.

    Overall, this book is a great value for your money. You should be able to make better call center technology decisions after reading and using this book. This book is very practical and one you will want to reference over and over again.

    5 out of 5 stars Clear, Compelling, Insightful.......2002-11-28

    "Call Center Technology Demystified" is exactly that. Bocklund and Bengtson deliver concrete advice about a rapidly changing environment, and provide a framework for thinking about and planning for technology change well into the future. This book is packed with intelligent analysis, yet is easy to read with graphics, good layout, and a refreshingly light tone. Their solid examples and insights, based on their consulting work with Vanguard Communications, really set this book apart. This isn't academic theory; this is what happens in the trenches. Excellent work!
    Supply Chain Strategy
    Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
    • Decent book, but could be better
    • Best Practical Reference
    • Supply Chain Strategy - Classes and Book
    • Typos Galore
    Supply Chain Strategy
    Edward Frazelle
    Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Hardcover

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    5. Strategic Supply Chain Management Strategic Supply Chain Management

    ASIN: 0071375996

    Book Description

    Provides an overview of new practices and systems in supply chain management, from logistics information systems architecture to supply chain integration.

    Download Description

    Supply Chain Strategy is based on world-class logistics practices in place in successful supply chain organizations, the latest academic breakthroughs in logistics system design, and the logic of logistics.

    Customer Reviews:

    3 out of 5 stars Decent book, but could be better.......2005-11-30

    I liked the content of the book, but I have three complaints.
    1. Very large number of charts, graphs and photos which is great, but the book would be much better if they were printed in color instead of black and white.
    2. The author needs to create a companion CD to supplement the content in the book.
    3. I wasn't expecting to read a lot of Bible verses when I bought a book on Supply Chain Strategy. The author should have saved those for a different type book - not in a textbook. For this reason, the book is not appropriate for a corporate reading list in a litigious environment.

    5 out of 5 stars Best Practical Reference.......2003-10-15

    This book simply rules the subject area! If you are a practitioner looking for hands-on advice and solid methodology, this is your blueprint. It will jump-start and carry through your Supply Chain/Logistics activities. One of the best Supply Chain books I have encountered. It has a spot on my desk (as opposed to the library).

    Academicians, people wanting to broaden horizons, and undergrad students will find this too technical/practical, hard-to-relate, and difficult to pad out their term papers.

    5 out of 5 stars Supply Chain Strategy - Classes and Book.......2002-03-01

    The classes at Georgia Tech were fantastic and I have been reading the book since I have returned home.
    It is the best book on the subject that I have ever read and I will keep it on my book shelf right next to Gordon Garham's Inventory Management for future reference. I don't want to sound stupid but I like tech books that have a lot of pictures. Dr. Ed Frazelle is a great teacher and I give both the classes and the book my most enthusiastic recommendation.

    3 out of 5 stars Typos Galore.......2002-01-04

    This is a comprehensive high-level book for someone who is familiar with, but needs more information on supply chain. It covers the major areas with a good level of detail.

    HOWEVER, there are numerous typos and misspellings. For example, a major table on p.36 has its headings transposed, which leaves the readers trying to guess what the author had in mind. If I'm paying $40-50 for a book, I expect that it would be well-edited.
    Principles of Forecasting (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science)
    Average customer rating: 5 out of 5 stars
    • Don't let a bad forecast ruin your whole decision
    • Guidelines for Developers, Researchers, and Practitioners
    • An Excellent Overview of Business Forecasting
    Principles of Forecasting (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science)

    Manufacturer: Springer
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Paperback

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    Accessories:
    1. Supply Chain Management with APO: Structures, Modelling Approaches and Implementation of mySAP SCM 4.1 Supply Chain Management with APO: Structures, Modelling Approaches and Implementation of mySAP SCM 4.1
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    ASIN: 0792374010

    Book Description

    Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (how much is this company worth?), marketing (will a new product be successful?), personnel (how can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (what level of inventories should be kept?).

    The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of "if-then principles", and they summarize evidence on these principles.

    The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

    Customer Reviews:

    5 out of 5 stars Don't let a bad forecast ruin your whole decision.......2001-12-15

    The subtitle of this book, A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, too narrowly defines the audience for Armstrong's new reference. Principles of Forecasting is, in fact, an indispensable resource for managers and professionals of every ilk. Forecasting is an integral part of decisions that we make and that are made for us. To be good decision makers and citizens we owe it to ourselves and others both to make our forecasts explicit and to examine the quality of those forecasts. This book gives the guidance to ensure that best practices are followed and to judge forecast quality after the fact

    Principles of Forecasting is not a book that you will find in airport bookstores. It is not a popular management title that dishes-up the latest buzzwords. On the contrary, this book will give you knowledge to examine critically the fashions and fads, as well as the received wisdom, of management. And yet, despite being a serious work, the book is a joy to read at length, or to browse. I suspect many decision makers will tend to do the latter.

    The Forecasting Dictionary is part of Principles of Forecasting and is a good place to start some directed browsing. For example, experienced decision makers will often rely on their intuition, even for important decisions. Is that a good idea? The Forecasting Dictionary has an entry for "intuition" that tells us, "... it is difficult to find published studies in which intuition is superior to structured judgment". Highlighted terms, such as "structured judgment" in the preceding passage, indicate that there is a separate Dictionary entry for the term. By following the highlighted terms and the references to the body of the book which are included in Dictionary entries, one can quickly pick up a useful understanding of a topic. Some entries are very detailed.

    Following the intuition entry to the entry on structured judgement, one finds "role playing" as an approach to imposing structure on a forecasting problem. Role-play forecasting for conflict situations happens to be an interest of mine. There is a chapter on role-playing in Principles of Forecasting that provides evidence that the outcomes of role-plays by students, and other non- representative role-players, provide accurate forecasts of decisions in real conflicts. This is counter-intuitive given that the conflicts examined involved generals, chief executives, directors, and union leaders among others. Moreover, unaided judgment tends to do poorly by comparison. This has important implications for strategy development - after all, what use is a strategy that fails to forecast accurately how other parties will behave?

    I keep my copy of Principles of Forecasting handy, refer to it often, and learn something new every time I do so. How many books could one say that of? A precious few. Congratulations to the authors on a unique and valuable work well executed.

    5 out of 5 stars Guidelines for Developers, Researchers, and Practitioners.......2001-11-23

    Principles of Forecasting is not a collection of articles describing basic forecasting methods. Instead, 40 authors have used a common format of identifying if-then principles and the support for those principles. Some other common formats of the chapters are: (1) limitations (2) implications for practitioners (3) implications for researchers.

    The final chapter of this book contains 139 forecasting principles...

    An example of a forecasting principle is: “13.25 Use multiple measures of accuracy”. A primary use for such principles would be as checklists for software developers, researchers, and practitioners to be sure that their work is complete to this level of detail. These are important general principles. Forecasters will need to use other references for the details of forecasting methods.

    The Web site for this book is a very valuable resource for forecasters. Some of the resources are: (1) forecasting dictionary [Enter a forecasting term and the Web site returns a definition.] (2) links to forecasting software sites (3) links to forecasting books and reviews (3) links to bibliographies, abstracts, and (for subscribers) full text papers (4) links to conferences on forecasting (5) links to Web sites related to forecasting.

    5 out of 5 stars An Excellent Overview of Business Forecasting.......2001-07-05

    Throughout my career, it seemed every five years or so, I briefly strayed from risk analysis into a closely related field, such as weather reporting or stock picking, just to see what others were doing. Most recently, I won a jackpot in return for the effort. I read J.Scott Armstrong's "Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners."

    Risk analysis has dealt more with subjects like natural and technological disasters. Business forecasting resembled risk analysis in several ways, but over the years, enterprise and capital markets accumulated much more extensive data. Social scientists studied the process of (and procedures for) forecasting with financial data intensively. Small wonder, as poor forecasting often led to costly disasters.

    The authors wrote the Handbook in clear, coherent prose. It assembled 29 articles by 40 leading experts into an excellent book with 18 chapters. Armstrong, the editor (and clearly the instigator) created a hierarchical framework that described the relationships between different kinds of forecasting information, beginning with either judgmental or statistical sources. "Principles of Forecasting" illustrated this framework in an often repeated diagram.

    The framework contributed to a coherent structure. Each chapter described one compartment within the framework. Each had an introduction that described the limitations and uses of a source of data used by forecasters. Each article also started with an abstract. Thus, a reader could quickly survey all of forecasting by skimming through the Handbook and reading either the article abstracts or the chapter introductions.

    Instead of reading the text sequentially, the framework and the Handbook's structure also allowed finding a specific article (or a topic of interest within an article) quickly, yet staying oriented to the overall subject. Thus, "Principles of Forecasting" served a handy reference text. The organization and a competent index sped this application.

    Many articles were excellent. None were less than very good. The articles concentrated on principles within subdomains of forecasting, which the Handbook emphasized by setting the principles apart in bullet format and bold text. The articles had a common format, which included two useful implication sections, separately for practitioners and for researchers. The articles also had overall summaries, and references to the literature. The authors edited each other's articles, which imposed both high quality and consistency on the Handbook. In addition, an extensive group of outside experts reviewed the articles. This huge effort showed in both dense information content and readability of the articles.

    Similarly, the Handbook contained a separate and marvelous "Forecasting Dictionary" toward the end, which allowed quick reference to (and understanding of) separate ideas involved in competent forecasting. In another separate section toward the end of the Handbook, a "Forecasting Standards Checklist" gathered all of the principles from the separate articles and condensed them into a very useful guide.

    "Principles of Forecasting" appeared comprehensive in its coverage. The authors wrote it as an explanation of a field, instead of a group of individual articles about related subjects. An introduction and a summary at the beginning and end of the book, also helped orient me to the overall subject of forecasting and to the need for principles. I thought that the Handbook reflected the consistent objective of a group of experts to interpret and explain forecasting. So, I will recommend it as a textbook for classroom use.

    "Principles of Forecasting" is not for everyone. It is an expert text. However, for persons involved in (or hoping to become involved in) forecasting or its allied and subsidiary fields, such risk analysis or econometrics, it will prove indispensable.
    Spa Business Strategies: A Plan for Success
    Average customer rating: 5 out of 5 stars
    • At last a book that gets the nuts and bolts of the Spa business
    • Most Comprehensive Guide...
    • Great book with a wealth of information!
    Spa Business Strategies: A Plan for Success
    Janet M. D'Angelo
    Manufacturer: Milady
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Paperback

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    3. Spa & Health Club Design Spa & Health Club Design
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    ASIN: 1401881645

    Book Description

    Spa Business Strategies: A Plan for Success is a unique, must-have resource for any professional who wants to learn more about the business and marketing strategies vital to owning and operating a day spa. This book takes a thoughtful and interactive approach to the subject matter, and the easy-to-read language and user-friendly format provide the spa owner, manager, or potential spa owner with an opportunity to tackle some of the more important tasks necessary to develop successful business practices. Important business concepts such as marketing, financing, utilizing technology, promoting sales, improving communication, and developing excellent customer service skills are discussed, among others. The author uses thought-provoking questionnaires, targeted worksheets, and practical examples to illustrate key concepts. The text is also focused on encouraging the day spa owner or manager to develop critical thinking skills that will promote solid business practices and sustain the continued growth of the day spa industry over time.

    Customer Reviews:

    5 out of 5 stars At last a book that gets the nuts and bolts of the Spa business.......2007-10-14

    Janet D'Angelo has done a great work to simplify the real nuts and bolts of what a Spa Business entails. Has saved me an enourmous amount of money and time.

    5 out of 5 stars Most Comprehensive Guide..........2006-05-02

    What didn't Ms. D'Angelo cover? I can't think of anything! A mass of valuable information for anyone considering the Spa business. This book will be an invaluable guide for my business for a long time. It has done the work and the research for me. With the most up to date information for todays marketplace. A comprehensive outline for bringing a vision to reality and beyond. I feel so much more confident now in where to start and how to market and promote my business and how to keep it fresh and viable into the future. I'm so grateful for this book.

    5 out of 5 stars Great book with a wealth of information!.......2006-03-17

    An easy read with lots of valuable information on how to do it right the first time. Plenty of resources listed to gather more info from, as well as the importance of the marketing plan and how to go about it. Even if our are already established the book offers many useful tools for successful business operations.
    Black Hawk Down: A Story of Modern War
    Average customer rating: 4.5 out of 5 stars
    • Great Story
    • Excellent and revealing
    • One of the greatest combat books I have ever read
    • Great Story Highly Recommended
    • First Rate Military History -- move over Cornelius Ryan
    Black Hawk Down: A Story of Modern War
    Mark Bowden
    Manufacturer: Penguin (Non-Classics)
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Paperback

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    5. Black Hawk Down Black Hawk Down

    ASIN: 0140288503
    Release Date: 2000-02-28

    Amazon.com

    Journalist Mark Bowden delivers a strikingly detailed account of the 1993 nightmare operation in Mogadishu that left 18 American soldiers dead and many more wounded. This early foreign-policy disaster for the Clinton administration led to the resignation of Secretary of Defense Les Aspin and a total troop withdrawal from Somalia. Bowden does not spend much time considering the context; instead he provides a moment-by-moment chronicle of what happened in the air and on the ground. His gritty narrative tells of how Rangers and elite Delta Force troops embarked on a mission to capture a pair of high-ranking deputies to warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid only to find themselves surrounded in a hostile African city. Their high-tech MH-60 Black Hawk helicopters had been shot down and a number of other miscues left them trapped through the night. Bowden describes Mogadishu as a place of Mad Max-like anarchy--implying strongly that there was never any peace for the supposed peacekeepers to keep. He makes full use of the defense bureaucracy's extensive paper trail--which includes official reports, investigations, and even radio transcripts--to describe the combat with great accuracy, right down to the actual dialogue. He supplements this with hundreds of his own interviews, turning Black Hawk Down into a completely authentic nonfiction novel, a lively page-turner that will make readers feel like they're standing beside the embattled troops. This will quickly be realized as a modern military classic. --John J. Miller

    Book Description

    The acclaimed New York Times bestseller Black Hawk Down is "a shocking account of modern warfare . . . gripping and horrifying" (San Francisco Chronicle)

    Destined to become a classic of war reporting, Black Hawk Down is Mark Bowden's brilliant account of the longest sustained firefight involving American troops since the Vietnam War. On October 3rd, 1993, about a hundred elite U.S. soldiers were dropped by helicopter into the teeming market in the heart of Mogadishu, Somalia. Their mission was to abduct two top lieutenants of a Somali warlord and return to base. It was supposed to take an hour. Instead they found themselves pinned down through a long and terrible night fighting against thousands of heavily armed Somalis. The following morning, eighteen Americans were dead and more than seventy had been badly injured.

    Drawing on interviews from both sides, army records, audiotapes, and videos (some of the material is still classified), Bowden's minute-by-minute narrative is one of the most exciting accounts of modern combat ever written--a riveting story that captures the heroism, courage, and brutality of battle.

    "Black Hawk Down ranks among the best books ever written about infantry combat. . . . A descendent of books like The Killer Angels and We Were Soldiers Once . . . and Young."-- Bob Shacochis, The New York Observer

    "If Black Hawk Down were fiction we'd rank it up there with the best war novels: The Naked and the Dead by Norman Mailer, or The Things They Carried, by Tim O'Brien."-- Tom Walker, The Denver Post

    "Stands in a league with Shelby Foote's stirring Civil War Diary, Shiloh."-- Jim Haner, The Baltimore Sun

    "One of the most gripping and authoritative accounts of combat ever written."-- Kirk Spitzer, USA Today

    "Amazing . . . One of the most intense, visceral reading experiences imaginable."-- The Philadelphia Inquirer
    A New York Times bestseller for 14 weeks
    Bowden's Black Hawk Down series, which appeared in the Philadelphia Inquirer was awarded the Overseas Press Club's Hal Boyle Award for best foreign reporting

    Customer Reviews:

    5 out of 5 stars Great Story.......2007-10-18

    Tell's the story of courageous fighters even when the mission does not go their way during a modern war. Great for all new recruits in the armed forces!

    5 out of 5 stars Excellent and revealing.......2007-08-29

    The beginning of this book kinda made me want to be a soldier but as it got into the actual horrors of war it seriously scared a strong sense of reality into me. Anyone who is thinking of joining the military should read this book first. Not that I'm trying to discourage people but just that they should take it seriously and not just think of it as an easy way to pay off school loans or something.

    Anyway, the book is fantastic. Get it and read it.

    5 out of 5 stars One of the greatest combat books I have ever read.......2007-08-16

    This book is great. It tells about the Battle of the Black Sea extremly well with several different perspectives. From stories of some of the Delta opperators to the Habr Gidr clan members fighting them, this book tells it very, very well. Only Flags of Our Fathers rivals Black Hawk Down. If you like combat books, I highly recommend this book.

    5 out of 5 stars Great Story Highly Recommended .......2007-07-13

    Let me incorporate, by reference the many well earned accolades of the other reviews. This is an exceptional book and deserves the praise. However, there are some limitations.

    The first is that two men watching the same person do nothing more than walk down the street may have perceptions of the event that would make it appear that they observed two different events, the second is that some of the intimate observations of those who fought there may have been reserved during interviews and the third is that Bowden may have received some politically correct guidance from above. Finally there is something enlightening in the unedited words of some of the experienced participants.

    MSG Howe, a legend in the Special Forces community wrote an excellent book , Leadership and Training For the Fight. Deliberately misses the well edited polish as he uses presents personal combat experience to illustrate the key subjects he is discussing. Much of the action is on the ground as a participant in what became knows as Blackhawk Down. Howe discusses the critical differences in between the Rangers and Special Forces as they fought together. The second additional reference are the two books by Durant, In The Company of Heroes and Night Stalkers.

    One of the messages of the other books on the subject which directly conflicts with the conclusions of Blackhawk Down is the impact of the removal of the AC-130's from the area had on the operation. The theater commander was denied the AC-130 gunships and American armor. Bowden repeats the Washington spin that the gunships would have been ineffective in the urban environment. However, Durant notes the huge psych impact when the gunships were returned to the fight a fee days later, while he was still held prisoner. It is further reported that the Secy of Defense came down to the SF camp once they were home to apologize for the removal of the gunships and soften the blow that there would be no formal after action report.

    The performance of the gunships in several firefights in Afghanistan clearly demonstrated that they could work very closely with troops on the ground who were vastly outnumbered and fighting for survival within stone throwing distance. There also no doubt that the Little Birds and gunships could have been used together.

    Durant and Howe provide the framework to understand the tactics and mission of those on the ground and in the air on those fateful days.

    All three books leave the reader stunned at the quality, dedication and effectiveness of those who serve our country.







    5 out of 5 stars First Rate Military History -- move over Cornelius Ryan.......2007-07-12

    This rates as one of the best military histories I have ever read.

    Mark Bowden is scrupulously careful, balanced, and thorough. He presents a very complex incident with color, passion, and detail, cataloging the sounds, smells, and visuals of this frightful engagement.

    He allows the participants among American and Somali soldiers and noncombatants to tell their own stories in their own words. Occasionally he steps back and presents historical/political background to let the reader see this "Battle of the Black Sea" in context.

    The movie version (Ridley Scott directing) was exceptionally well done, fast-paced, fierce, gritty, and like the battle itself, ultimately very sad and leaving a sense of futility, given that the U.S. scampered out of Somalia shortly after the battle. Yet the movie was light and almost careless of many details compared with this book.

    Move over, Cornelius Ryan.
    The Killing Zone: How & Why Pilots Die
    Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
    • Great knowledge for aspiring pilots
    • Fly safer
    • Important knowledge for any pilot
    • The Killing Zone
    • Save your own life
    The Killing Zone: How & Why Pilots Die
    Paul A. Craig
    Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill Professional
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Hardcover

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    ASIN: 007136269X

    Book Description

    This literal survival guide for new pilots identifies "the killing zone," the 40-250 flight hours during which unseasoned aviators are likely to commit lethal mistakes. Presents the statistics of how many pilots will die in the zone within a year; calls attention to the eight top pilot killers (such as "VFR into IFR," "Takeoff and Climb"); and maps strategies for avoiding, diverting, correcting, and managing the dangers. Includes a Pilot Personality Self-Assessment Exercise that identifies pilot "types" and how each type can best react to survive the killing zone.

    Customer Reviews:

    4 out of 5 stars Great knowledge for aspiring pilots .......2007-08-10

    Paul Craig's book is also excellent for pilots who may be doing a lot of flying to attain the hours needed to advance their career. This book is essential for the main reason in that it dispels some myths about why planes go down. Most of the time when a plane crashes, it is due to pilot error and very, very seldom is it something mechanical related. Weather is always a factor but you will get more knowledge of that from an instructor as well as other reading material geared more towards that suject in concerns with flying.

    Your own car, new or old will have more mechanical issues that keep you from getting from point A to point B than an airplane will. Definitely great education on the topic at hand, and although there may be others out there, this is not a bad place to start!

    5 out of 5 stars Fly safer.......2007-02-15

    This book contains detailed review of pilot induced errors through many NTSB accident reports categorized by cause and commented by author. Many typical cases of pilot errors are selected to describe possible cause-effect scenarios. Author also presents statistical charts whose purpose is to warn students and low time pilots. Since I am PPL pilot student, I found this book a good source of information on GA pilot mistakes. If you are also low timer (50-350 hours) read it and fly quite a bit safer.

    On down side I must mention it would be useful to see more photos and drawings from actual accidents.

    5 out of 5 stars Important knowledge for any pilot.......2006-12-23

    Craig's research reveals weak spots in the planning and experience of many pilots, describing both intentional and inadvertent actions which commonly lead to accidents. Knowledge is power, but overconfidence can be fatal; nothing makes this more clear than The Killing Zone. Many, if not all, of the accidents Craig cites could have been avoided with proper planning or decisionmaking.

    Outsiders might find it morbid, but a good pilot learns from others' mistakes and passes that knowledge on. Craig has done a great service to the aviation community with this important read - even pilots outside the Killing Zone (50 to 350 hours of experience) can benefit.

    4 out of 5 stars The Killing Zone.......2006-11-10

    As a pilot in training I found the book to be quite informative and an exceptional resource for recognizing and avoiding some of the obvious and not so obvious reasons why pilots die or rather are killed in airplane crashes.

    The book is fairly heavy on statistics, which I suppose is good for some, but for me, it kept me from giving it 5-stars as it slowed the "read" down a little too often for my likes. The book is laid out nicely and the accidents are catagorized to make it easy to follow and focus on each category in turn. I would highly recommend it to anyone who flys general aviaition aircraft regardless of your experience level, from student to CFI. (as a side note, us "new" pilots are in the "safest" category, at least for a little while.

    Anyway, the book is a good read, a valuable training resource and good safety awareness refresher for any pilot!

    4 out of 5 stars Save your own life.......2006-11-07

    this book is a very good read for any new pilot - if you just received your rating then I highly recommend reading this book before you become a statistic for the next edition - JFK Jr. , Cory Lidle etc. each of their mistakes was easily predictable from reading the book - I expect that reading this has made me a safer pilot - I will get through the zone safely!!

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    6. The Economics of Life: From Baseball to Affirmative Action to Immigration, How Real-World Issues Affect Our Everyday Life
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    8. The Enlargement of the European Union and NATO: Ordering from the Menu in Central Europe
    9. The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond (Princeton Economic History of the Western World)
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