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Sequels often disappoint when compared to their predecessors, but author Robert Shiller has proved the exception to the rule with his second edition of Irrational Exuberance. When the original book released in 2000, Shiller's prescient analysis of bubble-like market behavior provided perspective on the painful meltdown of stock-price valuations that subsequently occurred. Five years later, the Yale professor's bearish predictions about real-estate valuations are enough to give any savvy investor or homebuyer pause.
Shiller is one of several well-known economists and pundits who've begun a running dialogue in the last few years around the drawbacks of unchecked free markets. Few writers, though, dissect the phenomenon of bubble behavior as clearly and thoroughly as Shiller does. As with the first edition of his book, Shiller begins this one with reams of quantitative data around the late 1990s stock-market runup. This new edition adds data on real-estate price trends in the early 2000s, and points out the striking parallels between the earlier stock-market boom and bust, and current trends with housing prices in the United States. Shiller actually believes the two phenomena are related; as investors lost confidence in the stock market and moved their money into real estate, one asset class fell while the other rose. According to Shiller's analysis, the pattern is destined to repeat itself.
Aside from the initial data, the real strength of Irrational Exuberance is the straightforward, almost clinical way in which it explains why things happen as they do. The book walks readers through structural reasons for market bubbles, then ventures into "softer" analyses which professional economists less confident than Shiller would be scared to touch. It examines cultural factors behind market bubbles, such as hype-mongering news media, and psychological factors, such as herd behavior.
Another improvement in this latest edition of Shiller's book is his inclusion of more personal commentary, and he mentions the influence that his wife, herself a clinical psychologist, has had on his intellectual development and his view of psychological impacts on economic behavior. Other personal insights from Shiller center on experiences he had while touring and lecturing around the first book, and some of the most interesting passages are those in which he describes common questions or feedback from his audience, and what he thought in reaction--but didn't voice while on his tour.
In the end, Shiller closes his book with an intriguing set of policy proposals. He argues for a revamping of the U.S. social security system, a new system of house-price insurance for homeowners, and risk reduction through portfolio diversification. Fans of the brainy academic will note with approval that Shiller practices what he preaches: he has begun trying to implement some of his ideas in the real world through two private consulting firms he has founded, Macro Securities Research and Macro Financial. The hope is if Shiller's as correct with this second book as he was with his first, readers will all learn something from these new companies. --Peter Han
Book Description
In this timely and prescient update of his celebrated 2000 bestseller Irrational Exuberance, Robert J. Shiller returns to the topic that gained him international fame: market volatility. Shiller breaks new ground in this second edition by laying out in even clearer and starker terms the market excesses that continue to destabilize the economy and disrupt our lives.
Having predicted the stock market collapse that began just one month after the first edition was published, he now expands the book to cover other markets that have become volatile, particularly the recently red-hot housing market. He includes a full chapter on domestic and international housing prices in historical perspective.
Shiller amasses impressive evidence to support his argument that the recent housing market boom bears many similarities to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s, and may eventually be followed by declining home prices for years to come. After stocks plummeted when the bubble burst in 2000, investors moved their money into housing. This precipitated the inflated real estate prices not only in America, but around the world, Shiller maintains. Hence, irrational exuberance did not disappear-it merely reappeared in other settings.
Building on the original edition, Shiller draws out the psychological origins of volatility in financial markets, this time folding real estate into his analysis. He broadens the evidence that investing in capital markets of all kinds in the modern free-market economy is inherently unstable-subject to the profoundly human influences captured in Alan Greenspan's now-famous phrase, "irrational exuberance."
The ultimate solution to this troubling condition, he maintains, would involve better-designed public institutions such as a revamped social security system, new forms of insurance to protect people's incomes and homes, and a broader array of investment options. As was true of its predecessor, the second edition of Irrational Exuberance is destined to be widely read, discussed, and debated.
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In this bold and potentially urgent volume, Robert J. Shiller, a respected expert on market volatility, offers an unconventional interpretation of recent U.S. stock market highs and shows that Alan Greenspan's term "irrational exuberance" is a good description of the mood behind the market. He warns that poorer performance may be in the offing and tells us how we--as a country and individually--can respond.
Shiller credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights. He analyzes the structural and psychological factors that explain why the Dow Jones Industrial Average tripled between 1994 and 1999, a level of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In contrast to many analysts, Shiller stresses circumstances that alter investors' perceptions of the market.
Customer Reviews:
Invested more than ten dollars?.......2007-07-19
If you have Invested more than ten dollars in the share market or real estate than you should read this book.
bring a lunch..........2007-03-27
This book has good info in it but man, does it get long. I read lots of analytical info with interest, but this book was very very slow for me, especially in the middle and later chapters.
The good news is that the first couple of chapters make it worthwhile. It does present some very important and valid concepts. The easily-bored reader could read the first few chapters and the last chapter, learn a lot of good info, and not miss much in the long middle chapters.
JD
Want to be smarter?.......2007-03-25
read the book.
It will open your eyes to the 'truths' of wall street.
Excellent Book! A must read!.......2007-01-03
This is an excellent book! It may seem dry at times with alot of statistics, but overall it provides a good insights into the field of behavioral finance.
Rational Analysis.......2006-10-10
I read the second edition of this book since it is enlarged with the study of the housing market. The phenomenon of bubbles and negative bubbles or collapses is described extremely well by means of statistical data of markets for over a century and a half. The raw data is adjusted to inflation to give a realistic perspective of the trends and patterns. Bubbles seem to be occurring at regular intervals typically based on the "new era" story and everyone believes at least during the heady days that good times are here to stay. But as shown by proven evidence of the past, no bubble has sustained itself permanently and good reason prevails sooner or later. When this happens, the bloated bubble collapses and the hangover is terrible. The story so far is quite simple. But what makes this book so interesting is the depth of research and the manner in which the phenomenon is studied and explained.
The combination of mass psychology and market prices is at the core of this book. For bubbles to happen, information flow is the key. Media plays a significant role in disseminating information and bubbles seem to have originated in recorded history after the advent of the print media. In recent times electronic media particularly the television and the internet play a significant role in speeding up bubble formation and also the reversals. Media needs a storyline and this story needs to be continued to retain customers on a daily basis. Stock market is the ideal place that offers an opportunity to try one's luck if a casino is far away. Backed by on-line dedicated news channels and internet trading, well, it is not surprising that we have day traders in herds. In such situations fundamentals like industry analysis and P/E ratios take a backseat as explained by the author. Historical averages are breached and a euphoria of "once in a life time opportunity" prevails. What happens to the Efficient Markets Theory in such situations?. Since this theory says that markets are perfectly priced based on all publicly available information there cannot be a situation of either under pricing or over pricing. This book perfectly challenges the efficiency and accuracy of this theory.
It is unfortunate that substantial amounts of investments meant to be otherwise risk free sources of income, pension funds for example, are getting diverted into risky markets. Here the author has come out with a list of some sound proposals to protect hard earned life long savings of innocent citizens who are exposed to the irrationality of markets.
The bubble in the housing market is also discussed well. Housing seems to be isolated bubbles occurring in specific regions and not a global phenomenon. But nevertheless the damage can be the same. The party of low interest rate regime seems to be over and a spike in mortgage rates is sure to be the needle that will prick right through this big speculative bubble.
What goes up has to come down ! But once you start reading this book, it is difficult to put it down. Intellectually stimulating and bound to be economically rewarding.
Book Description
Completely updated and one of the most direct and practical approaches to presenting the factors that cause real estate value to change, McKenzie and Betts have updated the fifth edition while adding graphics and coverage of contemporary topics. This text works well for individuals with little or no background in formal economics, providing current information needed for a successful course in real estate economics for real estate agents, appraisers, and investors.
Customer Reviews:
Good overview of how real estate markets work that's easy to read.......2007-01-11
I saw the one other review and thought I should comment. I took a Real Estate Economics course at my local community college a couple years ago and this was the textbook. My instructor did not suck and had his own tests and assignments, so I cannot comment on the tests or teachers edition. I do not dispute the apparent inaccuracies. They are discouraging, and if I chose not to ignore them, I might give the book 3 stars. But I will ignore these weaknesses and review this as a book for any reader or investor who might want to read it independently.
Now, I'm an investor first and a real estate investor second. And I was actually an economics major in college. So I agree that this book was far from challenging material. The author takes the entire first chapter to explain what to expect and not to expect from the book. It's not an economics book. The book is actually a hodge-podge of introductions to several topics that all add up to a decent picture of how and why the real estate markets work the way they do: real estate fundamentals, taxation, development, government policies, and investments in general.
In fact, I've used the beginning of chapter 16 "Basic Investment Principles" p379-383 when trying to teach people about investing in general. It's amazing how few "everyday people" understand the basic ideas of taxability, control, liquidity, risk, and return. And understanding the different kinds of risks: inflation risk, interest rate risk, market risk, policy change risk, etc.
Anyway, some might interpret it as "off topic", but as long as you know that it's a hodge-podge book going in, I think it's a recommended read for any real estate investor. And the other review said it was written at a junior high level. That may be about right. But I didn't mind it. It was very easy to read.
Now, it is a textbook and it's just over 450 pages. Mass-market real estate books pepper you with anecdotes and opinions and examples. There isn't much of that. It's pretty dry. But if you are interested in the topic, it's accessible and worth the time.
Get the book used or better yet, drop the class........2003-02-26
I posted my initial review of this book before finishing it
and my first review was rather negative. I think it is worth
following up, so I have changed my review after finishing the
class. My review has gotten a little worse...
Conclusions :
This book is nearly devoid of subject matter provided you
understand basic supply and demand. When houses are scarse
they cost more, when there are vacancies, they cost less.
The book has a companion study guide, and teachers edition
with test, so your teacher doesn't have to do any work. That
is not so unusual, but read on...
The study guide only matches the book for the first 6 chapters
and then runs amok. Nearly half of the study guide questions
are subjective and misleading. The content of the textbook
is often contradicted by the tests and the study guide.
The teachers editon has a significant number of the test
questions wrong. If your teacher chose this sorry text, you
can almost bet they will mark you wrong on the tests and you
will have little or no opportunity for rebuttal because your
teacher is fundamentally lazy or they would have picked the
better text by Hubert et al. My teacher did not return our
tests at all, and when we reviewed the answers he refused to
consider valid arguments that there might have been a mistake
except in one case where the whole class was shouting at him.
This text was written in the early 1990s. Some parts have been
updated, some have not. The text is rarely wrong or misleading,
but it is geared at junior high level. The study guide and the
teachers materials seem to have been prepared by someone other than
the text author, they are often dead wrong, contradictory, or subjective so you should prepare to be frustrated by the
experience of taking a class based on this textbook.
I should add that I am getting a good grade in the class, I
am mostly angry that I have spent so much time and have learned
absolutely nothing and my teacher and the author of this text
are profiting at my and my classmates expense. If I could do
this over again I would drive to a farther away school in order
to find somebody who wanted to teach.
Average customer rating:
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Manipulation on Trial: Economic Analysis and the Hunt Silver Case
Jeffrey C. Williams
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
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Binding: Hardcover
 Economic History
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Storage and Commodity Markets
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The Economics, Law, and Public Policy of Market Power Manipulation
ASIN: 0521440289 |
Book Description
The unprecedented rise and fall in silver's price during 1979-80 resulted in charges of market manipulation against the Hunt brothers of Dallas, charges that led to a lengthy trial and a guilty verdict. In this book Jeffrey Williams, who was an expert witness in the actual trial, focuses on the economic analysis used at the trial, the relationship of that analysis to the attorneys' arguments, and its effectiveness before the jury. Manipulation on Trial draws broadly applicable lessons from this important case. Through a series of essays, it investigates the elusive definition of manipulation, the difficulties of interpreting statistical evidence, the imprecision in calculating damages, and the hazards introduced when economic analysis enters complex litigation.
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Capitalization Theory and Techniques: Study Guide With Financial Tables
Charles B. Akerson
Manufacturer: Amer Inst of Real Estate Appraisers
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
General
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ASIN: 0911780734 |
Book Description
Is real property appraisal evolving, or have all of the "big ideas" already been conceived? This question has been circulating among the leaders of the Appraisal Institute during the past several annual meetings, usually encountering little in the way of satisfying answers. This is not too surprising, because grand ideas and new knowledge do not typically evolve from off-hand conversation. They are the product of focused intellectual activity and hours of difficult work.
This unquenched thirst for new knowledge is the primary reason for assembling this collection of new manuscripts dealing with valuation theory, which was financially underwritten by the Appraisal Institute. Their generosity and willingness to partner with the American Real Estate Society made this collection of thoughtful and thought provoking essays possible. They are the result of a global response to a worldwide call for papers, and demonstrate that real estate valuation is indeed an international discipline. The United States, Australia and New Zealand, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Rim, and Europe are all represented by this impressive collection of authors. Together, the eighteen essays that make up this volume demonstrate that there are a sufficient number of "big ideas" to challenge and improve the appraisal profession for years to come.
Real Estate Valuation Theory is organized around five categories of intellectual contribution to the whole-appraiser decision making and valuation accuracy, application of nontraditional appraisal techniques such as regression and the minimum-variance grid method, appraising contaminated property, ad valorem tax assessment, and new perspectives on traditional appraisal methods. One common thread is that all of the papers are exceptionally well written and thought provoking.
Average customer rating:
- Far too shallow
- elementary level
- Property development in HK
|
Development Appraisal of Land Hong Kong
Ling-hin Li
Manufacturer: Columbia University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 9622017762 |
Customer Reviews:
Far too shallow.......2003-09-11
I found this book to be far too shallow to be of any great use. While it does gives an overall picture of the situation, much of the contents lack depth that neither practitioner nor student would find it to be of much help when dealing with real life problems. Not recommended.
elementary level.......2001-01-29
this book is useful to the elementary level cos the book has not much 'new' things to the students and/or practitioners. For those who have studied finance would find this book too simple. for those who are interested in hk property market, I would suggest another book, "real estate in hk" ...complied by Mr. Thomas N T Poon., published by PACE
Property development in HK.......1999-08-09
Property Development in H
Average customer rating:
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Property Investment Theory
A. Macleary
Manufacturer: Taylor & Francis
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Library Binding
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ASIN: 0419147705 |
Book Description
This up-to-date reference on property investment highlights the problems with existing techniques of property valuation and appraisal and identifies possible ways forward for both research and practice.
Book Description
This insightful text applies the theoretical aspects of financial economics to explain how real estate financial institutions and markets have developed and evolved to their present state, and why they take the form they do.
Customer Reviews:
excellent condition.......2005-09-19
Although the book was not shipped that quickly, the book was in excellent condition. I am very satisfied with the book's condition. I just thought I would have received the book sooner.
Average customer rating:
- Strategy insights...
- Tangible Strategies for Intangible Assets
|
Tangible Strategies for Intangible Assets
John Berry
Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill
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Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 0071412867 |
Book Description
Intangible assets such as brands, patents, and intellectual capital are the new measures of corporate wealth. But one can't manage what one can't measure. And while assigning accurate valuations is a stringent requirement under new FASB accounting guidelines, it is far from easy.
This book explains the latest thinking and techniques in measuring and managing intangibles. Innovative management disciplines like Balanced Scorecard are explained, while real-world examples from Amazon, eBay, and other firms demonstrate how companies are getting maximum advantage from all their intangible assets.
Download Description
Intangible assets such as brands, patents, and intellectual capital are the new measures of corporate wealth. But one cant manage what one can't measure. And while assigning accurate valuations is a stringent requirement under new FASB accounting guidelines, it is far from easy.
This book explains the latest thinking and techniques in measuring and managing intangibles. Innovative management disciplines like Balanced Scorecard are explained, while real-world examples from Amazon, eBay, and other firms demonstrate how companies are getting maximum advantage from all their intangible assets.
'
Customer Reviews:
Strategy insights..........2005-08-25
If you are looking for a book about valuation of intangible assets this
isn't it. However, it's an excellent guide to understanding what intangible
assets are and what innovative management techniques are available to
managers to extract maximum value from them on a day to day basis. The
examples are interesting and real-world and the ideas are expressed
clearly. The chapter on knowledge management, for instance, is really far
out. Knowledge Object Theory is bleeding edge stuff and a fascinating read.
Too bad it's so new that there are few real world implementations. Still,
it's very thought-provoking stuff. If you're interested in gaining greater
clarity about leveraging value from all the important assets before you,
this is a great place to start.
Tangible Strategies for Intangible Assets.......2005-08-22
I had heard of intangible assets and knew superficially what they were, but this book gave me a level of insight about the nature of intangible assets and how they can be managed that I had never considered before. Any manager should read the entire text, identify the most underutilized or underappreciated intangible asset in his or her own organization, and then champion the implementation of a pilot project using the techniques in this book. You might be pleasantly surprised by the results.
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