Book Description
Robert Skidelsky's three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes has been acclaimed as the authoritative account of the great economist-statesman's life. Here, Skidelsky has revised and abridged his magnum opus into one definitive book, which examines in its entirety the intellectual and ideological journey that led an extraordinarily gifted young man to concern himself with the practical problems of an age overshadowed by war. Meticulously researched and beautifully written, John Maynard Keynes offers a sympathetic account of the life and influences of a passionate visionary and an invaluable insight into the economic philosophy that still remains at the center of political and economic thought.
Customer Reviews:
A fitting tribute to one of the greatest thinkers of all time.......2006-05-31
Anyone who has taken a course in macroeconomics knows who Keynes is. Economics is full of camps, conflicting doctrines, feuds, rivalries, etc. Keynes was unique in that, unlike other economists who are indoctrinated or are in love with a theory, he was never scared of giving up an idea that did not work. If one was to read his "Tract on Monetary Reform" one might be fooled into thinking that it was Milton Friedman that was writing and not the J.M Keynes who revolutionized economic thought with his General Theory. This pragmatism is what sets Keynes apart from every other economist. But why Keynes was so different from others is something students never learn. This biography does an admirable job of tracing Keynes' upbringing, his education, career, and contributions in the light of circumstances that Keynes lived through and shaped his ideas. It is also full of nuggets about Keynes' idiosyncracies which humanizes the biography and shows the real person behind the aura. The book is long, but 63 years of action-packed life requires such detail. The Chinese say, May we live in interesting times. Keynes certainly lived in interesting times with the result that this book is just as interesting.
An excellent,nontechnical biography of J M Keynes.......2005-11-27
This book is Skidelsky's one volume abridged version of his previous three volume biography(1983,1992,2000)on J M Keynes.Skidelsky successfully weaves all of the different aspects and strands(personal,familial,historical,social,political,economic) of Keynes's life into a beautifully constructed historical tapestry that will keep the reader's attention from the first page to the last.All of the different talents Keynes possessed and displayed during his lifetime come alive on the pages of this book.Skidelsky is the master of his material as long as he concentrates on the vast nontechnical aspects of the life of his subject.Skidelsky has clearly mastered the historical and chronological events and interrelationships that occurred during Keynes's life. Unfortunately,Skidelsky does not have the necessary formal training in mathematics,logic,statistics or probability in order to properly understand or assess any of those parts of Keynes's scholarship that involves the use of formal logical and mathematicalmethods or analysis.These technical deficiencies in Skidelsky's academic training are the main defect,not only in this book but in the entire corpus of Skidelsky's writings on Keynes going back over 30 years.I will concentrate on Skidelsky's error filled statements concerning Keynes's A Treatise on Probability(1921;TP) and the logical theory of probability.On p.95,Skidelsky conflates the principle of indifference(poi) with the principle of insufficient reason.They are not the same.Keynes's poi requires a balance or symmetry of the relevant,available evidence or factors involved before equiprobabilities are assigned.The poi can't be applied if there is no relevant evidence.Advocates of the principle of insufficient reason,on the other hand, argue that equiprobabilities can be applied in states where no relevant evidence exists.Keynes always rejected this kind of reasoning.Skidelsky bases his assessment of Keynes's logical theory of probability on the error filled work of A. Carabelli and R.O'Donnell.Carabelli and O'Donnell base their assessments of the TP on four sources:1)Keynes's introductory guide to the measurement of probability in chapter III of the TP;2)F. Ramsey's 1922 book review of the TP in The Cambridge Magazine;3)F.Ramsey's 1926 book review of the TP in his article,"Truth and Probability",published in 1931 in a book of articles;and 4)Keynes's 4 page eulogy and very brief review of the book in 1931.In chapter III,Keynes had already made it clear to the alert reader,who had a mind of his/her own (and would not ape the preposterous ,nonsensical claims made by F. Ramsey that by nonnumerical and nonmeasurable Keynes meant that numbers could not be used in general to estimate probabilities,i.e.,that Keynesian probabilities were like a surveyor assigning nonnumerical heights to a mountain hidden in the mist)that the vast majority of Keynesian probabilities used in common discourse were/are interval estimates.John Maynard Keynes is the originator and founder of the interval estimate approach to probability.Keynes spells it out in a number of places in the TP:"...we judge that the probability of the actual argument lies between these two(numbers;reviewers note).Since our standards,therefore,are referred to numerical measures in many cases where actual measurement is impossible,and since the probability lies BETWEEN(Keynes's emphasis)two numerical measures..."(1921,p.32).After warning the reader not to reach any conclusions based on chapter III alone until after Part II of the TP was reached(p.37),Keynes gives his definition of nonnumerical in chapter 15 of Part II on p.160 of the TP.On pp.161-163 and pp.186-194(ch.17),Keynes presents his approximation approach .It has nothing to do with ordinal rankings(see Skidelsky's queer claims on pp.284-285,for instance).An upper bound and a lower bound are specified for some 13 worked out probability problems.One of these problems(a revision of Boole's problem 10)is then made the foundation for Part III of the TP.Part III is then made the logical foundation for Part V. Carabelli's and O'Donnell's "reading" of Keynes's TP is very poor,at best.Skidelsky's conclusions,based on their very poor reading,are very poor.Skidelsky also appears to have been misled by Richard Kahn and Joan Robinson into believing that Keynes was a strictly literary economist, who was a poor mathematician by 1927. Supposedly,Keynes had never taken the twenty minutes that was necessary to understand the theory of value(microeconomics).Based on these bizarre beliefs,Skidelsky comes to the queer conclusion that Keynes deliberately refused to present any formal mathematical model of his general theory in the General Theory(1936;GT).Any mathematically trained reader can find Keynes's completely worked out model,with the results presented in the form of elasticities so that a reader of the GT can compare Keynes's results with those of A C Pigou,in chapters 19,20,and 21 of the GT.Keynes then compares and contrasts his model with Pigou's model,who had also presented his results in the form of elasticities, in the appendix to chapter 19 of the GT.A technically trained economist should purchase a copy of the GT instead of this book.
Book Description
The first two volumes of Robert Skidelsky's definitive and consummate biography of John Maynard Keynes were hailed as publishing events on both sides of the Atlantic. Already published to acclaim in Britain, this third and final volume covers Keynes's later years from 1937 to his death in 1946. During this period, Keynes's outstanding contribution to the financing of Britain's war effort, to the building of the postwar economic order, and his role in Britain's struggle to preserve its independence within the Atlantic alliance solidified the economist's lasting importance in twentieth-century history. Skidelsky lucidly explains Keynes's economic theories and masterfully evokes the complexities of his personality. The book abounds in lively anecdotes and memorable portraits, notably that of his devoted wife, Lydia Lopokova, whose eccentric but utterly logical post-Keynesian existence is charted in a delightful epilogue. Insightful and intelligent, this is a work that tells the story of a passionate and determined visionary and provides an invaluable overview of issues that remain at the center of international political and economic debate.
Customer Reviews:
In the short run we are still alive.......2004-09-05
The last part of Robert Skidelsky's magnificent biography of J.M. Keynes is a tale about the fall of the British Empire with Keynes as one of its most clairvoyant and active go-betweens trying to avoid the disaster. Great-Britain had won the war but it was bankrupt crushed by its debt contracted to buy US weapons.
This book shows clearly through its analysis of the Bretton-Woods negotiations and the discussions about the conversion of the British debt, that the ultimate goal of the US Administration was to get Britain on its knees and to take its place as world leader.
The US prefered an alliance with the Soviet Union against Britain. Their most important negotiator H.D. White was a convinced Soviet spy.
Keynes defended exhaustingly Britain's role in world matters by begging time for a reconversion of the British industry from a war to a civilian economy and for safeguarding its Commomwealth with its preferential tariff and pound sterling payment system.
The humiliating conditions for its debt conversion imposed by the US would cripple the British economy for years.
The suicidal internecine European wars created a new world hegemon: the US.
Before the war, Keynes defended his 'Treatise' policies, but saw them applied in Germany by a very clever economist, Hjalmar Schacht, who also saved the German economy internationally by creating a bilateral trade system.
Prof. Skidelsky shows us also pregnantly the deterioration of Keynes's physical condition, aggravated by his exhausting travels, difficult (empty handed) negotiations and even hard opposition at home when he was in the US.
One could perhaps slightly criticize the exhaustive excerpts of letters or the extremely detailed evolution of the negotiations in Bretton-Woods or about British debt relief. But, all in all, this is a fascinating read.
Out of your expectation.......2002-09-02
It's unexpectedly well decscibed how's Keynes in his childhood. He's in fact a well-spoken, witty gentleman with its charms inside which is mysterious. How could he become such a great economist, how he invent the theories, how he generated such a beautiful mind. It talked about Keynes' life in Eton College( a fundamental place for him to grow up and how his schoolmates affect him), and more is in King's College,Cambridge( which definitely a crucial turning point in Keynes' life) which included keynes' letter which he sent expressed his point of views, his love to Duncan. His writings were precise but in-depth. Moreover, it also includes a lot of cultural background informations which is like Cambridge traditions.It's a must-read book if you like Keynes.
A Major Force with Enduring Influence.......2001-12-22
In this, the third and concluding volume of his biography of Keynes, Skidelsky offers a brilliant analysis of one of the most influential thinkers of the 20th century. Skidelsky offers a remarkable discussion of the man (as opposed to the icon) whose influence seems to have fluctuated according to conventional (received?) wisdom with regard to fundamental economic principles. Economists have either agreed or disagreed about the value of Keynes's ideas (often with more heat than light) since the publication of his major work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). As a non-economist, I have only casually observed how his principles have gone in and out of favor as the national economy itself improves, flattens out, weakens, improves, etc. I enjoyed this book because it connected a human being with the principles to which so many others have referred in books and articles. Also because, as international trade accelerates in terms of both scope and depth (largely because of the Internet and the WWW), the role of government in each country will inevitably change...especially governments in those countries which were formerly members of the U.S.S.R. as well as in other countries in Asia, notably China. Thanks to Skidelsky's book, I am now much better prepared to recognize and understand such changes. I wish I had read the second volume in the trilogy (subtitled "The Economist as Savior") before reading this one. Those who read this review are urged to do so. However, judged wholly on its own merits, this final volume (subtitled "Fighting for Freedom") is a first-rate achievement.
Customer Reviews:
Skidelsky overlooks Keynes's mathematical contributions.......2004-10-25
I highly recommend the second volume of Skidelsky's three volume study of the life of John Maynard Keynes for the general reader.The general reader will be rewarded with a 5 star performance.Skidelsky masterfully weaves an incredible amount of material about the private and public life of Keynes in a manner that will provide the nonspecialist,general reader with many hours of reading pleasure.Unfortunately,the same cannot be said for the specialist seeking a technical analysis and evaluation of Keynes's scientific contributions to philosophy,applied probability,applied statistics,decision science and economics.It is in this area that Skidelsky fumbles the ball just as it appeared that he was going to go all the way and score a touchdown.This is most likely due to the fact that he is a historian with little or no training in philosophy,mathematics,statistics,probability and economics.Let me catalog the technical problems .First,Skidelsky confuses the 12th-13th century debate between the nominalists and the realists(Platonists) with the realist versus idealist debate of the 19th-20th century between,among others,G.E.Moore and Bertrand Russell(the realists of the 20th century who would be supporting the nominalists in the 12th century),on the one hand and J.M.E.McTaggart and F.H.Bradley,on the other hand,who would be supporting,in general,the realists of the 12th century.(See Skidelsky's extremely confusing discussion on pp.74-77).Second,Skidelsky is completely confused about the nature and construction of Keynesian probabilities.Keynesian probabilities,in general,are intervals.They require the use of two numbers ,not one.The first number is called a lower bound.The second number is called an upper bound.Keynes's approximation method has absolutely nothing to do with ordinal rankings. In fact,the general case occurring among decision makers in the real world would be of overlapping intervals.Consider the following simple example.Let probability one be estimated by the interval[.4,.6].Let probability two be estimated by the interval[.5,.7].The probabilities have very specific numeric bounds,but they are ,in fact,nonrankable,noncomparable and nonadditive.It is not possible to say that one of the two probabilities is greater than,less than or equal to the other probability.Skidelsky has accepted at face value the extremely poor analysis of Keynes's TP done by F.Ramsey in two book reviews published in 1922 and 1926.Ramsey committed the fatal error of misinterpreting Keynes's chapter 3 terms in the TP,nonnumerical and nonmeasurable,as meaning that no numbers could in general be used to estimate the probability relation.Ramsey never read chapters 15 and 17 of the TP where Keynes made it clear that most probabilities could be represented as intervals.(The reader will find literally one dozen errors of omission or commission committed on pp.58-61 and 67-73 of Skidelsky with regard to the issue of the use of numbers in Keynes's logical theory of probability).Skidelsky ignores Keynes's creation of an index to measure the weight of the evidence,w,where w is defined on the unit interval[0,1]and measures the completeness of the relevant potential evidence available upon which to make an estimate of a probability.Skidelsky overlooks Keynes's conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c,that solves all of the paradoxes of subjective expected utility theory.Keynes was the first scholar in history to devise a decision rule incorporating nonlinear probabilities and weight of the evidence(later called ambiguity of the evidence by D.Ellsberg in 1961).Lastly,Skidelsky has overlooked the mathematical specification of Keynes's theory of effective demand that Keynes derived from his Y model of chapter 10 and from his D-Z model of chapters 3,20-21 of the General Theory in 1936.Let us define w to equal a constant money wage,p to equal the price level,w/p to equal the real wage,MPL to equal the marginal product of labor in the aggregate,MPC to equal the marginal propensity to spend on consumption goods, and MPI to equal the marginal propensity to spend on copital goods.Keynes then arrives at the following general result:w/p=MPL/(MPC+MPI).The classical and neoclassical(monetarism,rational expectations,real business cycle theory,etc.)theories are all special cases which require that MPC+MPI=1.Skidelsky's claim that Keynes did not provide a mathematical model of his theory of effective demand in the GT (see pp.537-542,especially p.540)is an error in magnitude equal to the errors made by Frank Ramsey about the meaning of the terms "nonnumerical" and"non measurable".The specialist will be disappointed with this volume of Skidelsky's biography of J.M.Keynes.
Economics is a moral science.......2004-05-14
The second part of Prof. Skidelsky's magnificent biography of J.M. Keynes is nearly totally concentrated on economic issues. Keynes' personal life was perfectly settled after his marriage with a Russian ballerina. He continued to be in contact with the Bloomsbury group, which 'remained subversive by habit, but was anxious to retain their dividends and beauftiful houses'.
In fact, this book centres on the question how Keynes came to write the 'General Theory' and its defense of governmental intervention (public investments) in the economic cycle in order to break the capitalistic slump. He proved that in a laisser-faire system an equilibrium could be formed at a far lesser level than 'natural' unemployment: 'There is work to do, there are men to do it. Why not bring them together!'
We discover that Malthus was a real influential precursor with his proposition to prop up insufficient demand by public works and that Richard Kahn made a decisive contribution with his multiplyer effect.
Prof. Skidelsky characterizes perfectly the 'General Theory' as a complex psychological drama with as main characters the life-denying rentier, the businessman and his fantasies and the victimized working class.
Keynes' ultimate nightmare was a world were making money triumphed over making things, which is actually happening. Financial transactions are dwarfing the industrial ones and there are many more investment trusts than industrial companies in the US.
The discussions after the publication of the 'General Theory' are fascinating. In fact, the debate is still red hot: inflation/deflation, the influence of the (inter)national banks, savings and (un)employment.
This book is not an easy read. I recommend readers to (re)read some parts of the 'General Theory'. But this work is a fascinating tale about the (r)evolution of the ideas of the greatest economist of all times.
I have only one minor remark: Ibsen is a Norwegian, not a Swede.
Who was more keynesian them Keynes himself?.......2003-11-07
Keynes activities, both as an active participant of the economic life of his country and continent, and as an icon to the cultural life of his epoch and to his many friends and groups of interest, is impressive. To define him is an elusive task: philosopher?, economist?, historian?, linguist?. He was all this and much more, but he was above all a man of a very practical mind and, notwhidstanding his immense philosophical background, deeply attached to the theories of his contemporary G.E.Moore and others, he had the feeling of having a mission to accomplish, given the immense superiority his intellect had over the rest of the mortals.
What was to become of Europe after the end of the First World War was foreseen by him in many essays and primarily in his book The Economic Consequences of the Peace. The task which lays ahead for him, and only him, was to warn politicians and thinkers of the impending dangers of the years to come, specially in regard to a lack of theoretical analisys to support the transition from the old economy (classicist in his jargon), which ended with the death of the great Alfred Marshall, and a new one, which he purpoted himself to establish and then save the world. And save the world he did!!! Keynes is one of this towering figures who had the opportunity to mingle himself with daily facts and change them for the better. Amid a lot of controversy and polemic regarding the originality of his ideas, he published his major opus in 1937, which was to be used against the vagaries of rampant unemployment and inflation. His General Theory of Interest , Employment and Money is a sort of tribute he pays to his father , Malthus and G.E.Moore.
In the personnal side of his life, if this can be said of Keynes for his personal life was eminently devoted to cultural interests i many areas, the book portrays some important changes in his personal atitudes towards homosexuality (he abandoned) and his new life marrying the russian ballerina Ludmila.
When you we get volume 3?.......2000-02-15
A great book about a great man. The development of Keynes' thought is handled well, although some more discussion around possible sources of some of his ideas would have been welcome. Several books about his Bloomsbury freinds have emerged recently, and it is interesting to compare perceptions. I'm uncomfortable with Skidelsky's analysis of Keynesian theory which strikes me as too much of a shoe-horning of Keynes into a classical framework, but I'm hardly an expert. All in all a book to be savoured, and an essential item in one's library.
Customer Reviews:
I've rarely seen something this complex made this clear........2007-08-06
Skousen has really accomplished something with this book. If the average college professor could convey the information in their field of study with this kind of penetrating clarity, a lot more people would really understand what they learn, rather than just preparing to parrot it back for a test.
This book captures a broad cross-section of the ideas and history behind modern economic thought and ties it all neatly together by linking everything with the simple idea of relating it to Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and John Maynard Keynes. It's brilliant in its simplicity. Skousen starts by saying these are the three you really need to know. Then he says they aren't created equal and ranks them out: #1 Smith, #2 Keynes, #3 Marx. Seems like nothing, but all of a sudden you have a simple and solid mental framework from which to hang the rest of what Skousen tells you.
For each of Skousen's three main characters, you learn about the thinkers that laid the foundation for each of them (or in Smith's case, the lack thereof). You also learn about the historic events that spurred each of them to come up with their theories. You learn each of their theories, then finally - and so critically - you learn in plain English the shortcomings of each of the theories (fatal in two cases).
All of a sudden, you have a deeper understanding of the history and ideas of economics than a lot people who majored in the subject. And because of Skousen's entertaining writing style, you never really noticed how much you were learning.
Kudos to Mark Skousen. I wish more people (myself included) could write like this.
If you've ever had even the slightest interest in economics, do yourself a favor and read this book. You'll be glad you did.
A work of impeccable scholarship.......2007-06-10
Enhanced throughout with charts and photos, "The Big Three In Economics: Adam Smith, Karl Marx, And John Maynard Keynes" by academician and economist Mark Skousen is a history of modern economics as represented by the contributions of the three most influential economists in world history. Adam Smith expounded a revolutionary new doctrine in the 18th century that a nation of rich and poor could flourish under laissez faire and an unfettered market; Karl Marx inspired disenfranchised workers and intellectuals in the 19th century to end the exploitation of the underprivileged by the powerful; and in the 20th century, British economist John Maynard Keynes sought to stabilize a crisis prone market system through activist fiscal and monetary government policies. A work of impeccable scholarship that draws from both biographical and historical data to showcase the lives and ideas of three men who shaped economic theory and practice form three centuries, and whose contributions continue to influence economists in the 21st century, "The Big Three In Economics" is very strongly recommended reading for both students of Economics and non-specialist general readers with an interest in economic history and theory.
The Big Three in Economics.......2007-05-11
The author Mark Skousen explains the differences of three schools of
economics real well plus its an easy read.
Bob Rivera
The March to Today's Thinking.......2007-03-17
This is an excellent book that shows the development of mainstream economic thinking in terms of the theories of the three giants in economics: Adam Smith, Karl Marx and John Maynard Keynes.
Adam Smith (1723-90) was the first. He basically provided the first foundation of what is now called economics. Today he is considered to the right wing of the economic scale. Interestingly enough, his views have prevailed.
Karl Marx (1818-83) reacted against the Adam Smith theory with the belief that the 'invisible hand' of the marketplace has no compassion for the workers and that this could be better administered by a compassionate government. Generally discredited today, his theories seems to live mostly in the halls of the universities.
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) followed with an analysis of a way to stop recession/depression cycles that combined the Smith/Marx theories.
The author does an excellent job in tracing the impact of these three as it reaches today's world. At this time Smith is on top again, as modified by later thinkers, but as the author concludes in his last chapter,
'There is no telling how high the world's standard of living can reach through expanded trade, lower tariffs, a simplified tax system, school choice, Social Security privatization, a fair system of justice, and a stable monetary system. Yet bad policies, wasted resources, and class hatred die slowly.'
Economic theories made enjoyable.......2007-03-10
The three colorful and informative biographies which form the core of this book are followed by vignettes of the economic thinkers who came after them, and trace the development of economic theory. The book is thus an easily used guide to the history of economic thought. Graphs and technical material are held to a necessary and elucidating minimum.
On March 6, Mark Skousen had a commentary in The Christian Science Monitor on "Atlas Shrugged" after 50 years. I had never wanted to read the book--and still don't--but I was impressed by Skousen's logical thinking and clear writing. So, when I saw the reference to his newly published "Big Three" I ordered the book, pretty much convinced I would learn something painlessly. And I did.
Just for starters: Did you know that Marx died a wealthy man--with an income in the top 2% of the English populace? Did you know that Adam Smith's theory of free markets was an opposition to the European mercantile system of government-sanctioned cartels? Did you know that he regarded the right to sell one's labor and products as a function of human liberty? Did you know that he posited an "invisible hand" that guided economics where there was human liberty? Did you know that Thomas Carlyle dubbed economics the "dismal science?"
Did you know that the historical way of increasing the labor supply and expanding assets was to go to war and take slaves and steal another nation's gold? Did you know that it was not generic "capitalism" but the failure of the Federal Reserve Bank to act that caused the Great Depression?
These are a few of the gems of wisdom garnered from just a quick reading of this book.
Mark Skousen is an unabashed believer in the free-market system. Here he clearly presents its problems and practical limitations, as well as the criticisms levelled against it, He also points out the deficiencies in logic in Marx and Keynes's theories.
I had taken a year of Econ in college and enjoyed it, and then I worked as a translator from a Norwegian trade journal for several years, translating articles by members of the Austrian school of economics (Mises, Hayek, etc). A lot of it had to do with keeping a destroyed Europe from going economically socialist and politically bolshevist in the aftermath of WWII and the occupation of the East by Russia. BUT - I had no idea who Adam Smith was until I read this book, nor did I understand how the various theories hung together.
So, whether you're a beginner or just have gaps in your knowledge, this
small, inexpensive, and thoroughly enjoyable book should prove immediately and permanently valuable.
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The Life of John Maynard Keynes
Roy Forbes, Sir Harrod
Manufacturer: W W Norton & Co Inc
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- Moggridge ignores all of Keynes's theoretical contributions
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Maynard Keynes: An Economists' Biography
Donal Moggridge
Manufacturer: Routledge
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Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0415127114 |
Book Description
John Maynard Keynes, the most influential economist of the twentieth century, also made a unique contribution to public affairs and to Britain's cultural life. In
Maynard Keynes, Donald Moggridge draws on an unrivalled knowledge of Keynes gained from twenty years of editing his papers. Fresh in its outlook and revealing in its scope, this is the definitive biography of Keynes.
Customer Reviews:
Moggridge ignores all of Keynes's theoretical contributions.......2004-10-24
Moggridge's(M) book on Keynes is similar in many respects to R.Skidelsky's three volume study of Keynes.Both give an excellent historical overview of the major events in Keynes's personal,professional,public and academic life.There are many interesting discussions of the interactions that occurred between Keynes and a host of famous people,politicians,philosophers and economists.The reader, who wants to buy a book on Keynes for his general library ,would do well to purchase this one volume study.On the other hand,M is not successfull in discussing and analyzing the many intellectual and scientific contributions that Keynes made to applied probability,statistics,decision theory and economics.A reader will be disappointed in this book if he wants a discussion of the intellectual heritage that Keynes bequeathed to humanity.The following is a list of the intellectual accomplishments of Keynes not mentioned by M.First,Keynes is the first scholar in history to propose an interval estimate approach for calculating an estimate of probability.Keynes gave a precise approximation technique based on the work of George Boole.These topics are covered in chapters 15 and 17 of the A Treatise on Probability(1921).Second, Keynes is the first scholar in history to provide a specific index to measure the weight of the evidence,w.w measures the completeness of the relevant ,potential evidence available to a decision maker in order to calculate an estimate of a probability.It is defined on the unit interval[0,1].Third, Keynes is the first scholar in history to specify a clearcut decision rule that incorporates non linear probability preferences and the weight(or ambiguity or uncertainty)of the evidence in his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c.Fourth,Keynes is the first scholar in history to recognize the applied importance of Chebyshev's Inequality in specifying a lower bound to unreliable estimates based on misapplications of the normal probability distribution.Fifth,Keynes was one of the first to recognize the incorrect use of the normal probability distribution,both in the TP and in his debate with Tinbergen in 1939-1940 in the Economic Journal.These last two points still have not been understood by economists and financial analysts.Benoit Mandelbrot has presented overwhelming evidence that price movements in financial markets can't accurately be represented by a normal probability distribution.Like Tinbergen,economists keep preferring to be precisely wrong rather than generally right.Finally,Keynes specified a general theory of macroeconomics under conditions of both risk and uncertainty in his theory of effective demand presented in the GT in 1936.Letting w equal the money wage,p equalling the price level,w/p equalling the real wage,MPL equalling the marginal productivity of labor,MPC equalling the marginal propensity to spend on consumption goods,MPI equalling the marginal propensity to spend on investment goods(capital goods),Keynes derives the following:w/p=MPL/(MPC+MPI).This generalizes the classical and neoclassical theory that w/p=MPL.Classical and neoclassical theory(such as rational expectations,real business cycle theory,etc.)are special cases of Keynes's general theory that require MPC+MPI=1.Moggridge is advised to incorporate all of these intellectual accomplishments of Keynes in a revised edition.
Book Description
The eagerly awaited final volume of Robert Skidelsky's definitive biography of John Maynard Keynes covers the period from 1937, when Keynes had become the world's most influential economist, to his death in 1946. It focuses on Keynes's contribution to the financing of Britain's war effort, the building of the postwar economic order, and his role in Britain's struggle to preserve its independence within the Atlantic Alliance. Insightful and intelligent, this is a work that tells of one of the most important men of the twentieth century and provides an invaluable overview of matters that remain at the center of political and economic discussion.
Customer Reviews:
In the short run we are still alive.......2004-09-05
The last part of Robert Skidelsky's magnificent biography of J.M. Keynes is a tale about the fall of the British Empire with Keynes as one of its most clairvoyant and active go-betweens trying to avoid the disaster. Great-Britain had won the war but it was bankrupt, crushed by its debt contracted to buy US weapons.
This book shows clearly through its analysis of the Bretton-Woods negotiations and the discussions about the conversion of British debt, that the ultimate goal of the US Administration was to get Great-Britain on its knees and to take its place as world leader.
The US preferred an alliance with te Soviet Union against Britain. Their most important negotiator H.D. White was a convinced Soviet spy.
Keynes defended exhaustingly Britain's role in world matters by begging time for a reconversion of the British industry from a war to a civilian economy and for safeguarding its Commomwealth with its preferential tariff and pound sterling payment system.
The humiliatig conditions for its debt conversion imposed by the US would cripple the British economy for years. The suicidal internecine European wars created a new world hegemon: the US.
Before the war, Keynes defended his 'Treatise' policies, but saw them applied in Germany by a very clever economist, Hjalmar Schacht, who also saved the German economy internationally by creating a bilateral trade system.
Prof. Skidelsky shows us also pregnantly the deterioration of Keynes's physical condition, aggravated by his exhausting travels, difficult (empty handed) negotiations and even hard opposition at home when he was in the US.
One could perhaps slightly criticize the exhaustive excerpts of letters or the extremely detailed evolution of the negotiations in Bretton-Woods or about British debt relief. But, all in all, this is a fascinating read.
Large enough to offer details.......2003-11-10
There was a time when John Maynard Keynes was not the most famous living economist. Then he was. Then, after he died, he seemed to be more useful than Karl Marx to anyone who was interested in how modern economies actually operate in the best times, when statistics actually reflect the level of some real activities. Two earlier biographies by Robert Skidelsky cover the years in which Keynes gained in stature and wrote his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), described by Joseph Schumpeter as "the dying voice of the bourgeois crying in the wilderness for the profits it dare not fight for." (FIGHTING FOR FREEDOM 1937-1946, p. 4). This final volume starts with the problems with his heart that, after ten years of making Keynes an invalid, deprived the world of his advice at a time when situations continued to change at a pace which needed someone to keep applying different aspects of the General Theory in time to keep most elements of society from feeling that they were being swindled. He never had enough power to make a miraculous demonstration of anything, but the spread of American wealth after World War Two made many professionals think that it was possible, if not already proved, that happy days could keep reappearing here again far more optimistically than Joseph Schumpeter's dour statement.
Economics has become a science which is widely taught at a college level. Robert Skidelsky seems comfortable with writing about the political struggles involved, the nature of intellectual controversies in the field, and he is generous in his comments about Friedrich von Hayek, author of THE ROAD TO SERFDOM, and Milton Friedman, who emphasized other aspects of political economy. The years 1937-1946 had major problems of their own, and there is far more attention in FIGHTING FOR FREEDOM paid to the people that Keynes had contact with and responsibilities to. The Preface to the American Edition is dated 6 October, 2001. Already the author was prepared to apply a lesson of this book to our life and times:
"To be reminded of the realities of alliance politics, even in the case of such close partners as Britain and the United States, is timely in the aftermath of the tragic events of 11 September, when the United States is working to construct a global coalition against terrorism. In 1940, it was British vulnerability which threw it into the arms of the United States. America did not fail its fellow-democracy; but also used the occasion to settle old scores, and secure pole position in the post-war international order." (p. xv).
A major episode in this book recounts how an economic genius approaches the United States of America on behalf of a bankrupt country at the end of a big war to get debts pushed far enough into the future to be able to convince himself `If we don't make it by then, we're sunk anyway,' only to be asked why he didn't bring along the trade representatives. Countries which did not get involved in the current endless war might have leaders who read the British edition, which was published in 2000. Even at the beginning of this book, Keynes thought a government was foolish to commit itself to a war before the overwhelming mass of its people were convinced that the war was absolutely necessary, even after he felt that the Munich Agreement had been a pathetic trick.
This book describes Keynes as being conservative, and the picture it paints of his legacy continues the tradition of maintaining a bias in favor of economic stability. The Truman-Eisenhower years had a durable mix. "Setting tax rates to achieve an employment target consistent with a low rate of inflation was properly Keynesian; . . . It was to keep inflation under control by methods which did not bring about the collapse of the secular boom." (p. 505).
"However, U.S. fiscal restraint broke down in the 1960s. In 1962, the second-generation Keynesian economists who came in to office with President Kennedy were convinced that the long-predicted slump was at hand. A further stimulus to action was the quite unwarranted fear that the Soviet Union would win the Cold War economically and politically, without any need for a hot war. So the scene was set for the big Kennedy-Johnson tax cuts and `Great Society' programmes." (p. 505).
Economists might be familiar with the description of what followed, but the attempt to maintain a coherent theory is admirable when we get to: "Friedman's own attacks were launched from within Keynes's own macroeconomic citadel, but, by ruthlessly applying the maximizing logic to individual behavior, he gave two of the Keynesian `functions' -- the consumption function and the demand for money function -- properties of stability which they had lacked in their Keynesian form." (p. 506).
The picture of the doctor responsible for treating Keynes's heart, James Plesch, is labeled "the doctor who brought JMK `back to life', and whom he called `the Ogre'." (facing page 166). This is a typically British nickname for a Jewish Hungarian who left Germany in 1933 and settled in England. (p. 40). The author and I suspect that he was more thorough than British doctors. "There is no reason to doubt Keynes's own view that it was Prontosil which had brought about his dramatic improvement. Unfortunately, it was subsequently discovered that Prontosil was effective against the green streptococci lodged in the throat but not against those already firmly established in the valves of his heart." (p. 43). He lived through World War Two. He was losing money in the stock market before the war, as some people must have realized that weird things were about to happen to the economy. Keynes died before some of the big changes that were afoot. The American dream in this book: "Henry Wallace, who had fallen asleep, woke up to ask why Britain could not trade Indian independence for a write-down of Indian debt." (p. 414).
Customer Reviews:
Skidelsky fails to discuss Keynes's scientific contributions.......2004-10-25
This book is an excellent choice for a potential reader who is searching for a general overview of Keynes's early life.Like Moggridge's one volume study,Skidelsky's first volume(of three)has many interesting anecdotes and discussions of Keynes's interactions and involvement with a wide range of people.Unfortunately,Skidelsky drops the ball when he tries to evaluate the technical and intellectual contributions that Keynes made to applied probability,statistics and decision science in the period from 1904 to 1920. Keynes finally published his pathbreaking work in 1921 in his A Treatise on Probability(TP).A specialist can only come to the conclusion that Keynes made no breakthroughs in his TP after reading Skidelsky's bare bones treatment.This is most likely due to the fact that Skidelsky is a historian who has no training in the fields of mathematics, probability and statistics.It is true that Skidelsky limits his discussion of the TP in his first volume because he wanted to make an extended discussion of it in the second volume.Unfortunately,the treatment of the TP in volume II is badly marred by a number of mathematical errors.The interested potential book buyer is advised to read my review of volume II.Skidelsky fails to mention anywhere in Volume I that Keynes is the founder of the interval estimate approach to probability.In general,excluding the cases of symmetry and series or sequences composed of homogeneous frequency data,it takes two numbers,not one,to correctly specify an estimate of probability.A probability estimate is thus made up of a lower bound and an upper bound.Further,Keynes specified a clearcut approximation method based on the original work of George Boole in chapters 15 and 17 of the TP.The reader should note that all of this material is present in Keynes's 1907 and 1909 fellowship theses that he submitted to Cambridge University.Also present in these theses is an index created to measure the weight of the evidence,w.Keynes used different terms to describe weight,such as value,before settling for the term weight in the final published 1921 version.w measure the completeness of the relevant, potential evidence upon which a decision maker is going to base an estimate of probability.w is defined on the unit interval between 0 and 1,i.e.,0
<=w
<=1.Finally,Skidelsky ignores Keynes's conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c.Keynes presented this coefficient in both the 1907 thesis and the 1909 thesis ,which was accepted.This coefficient is the first time in history that a decision rule incorporated nonlinear probability preferences, as well as the weight of the evidence ,or what D.Ellsberg later called the ambiguity of the evidence in a 1961 Quarterly Journal of Economics article.
Love first, Philosophy second, Poetics third,Politics fourth.......2004-05-11
This profoundly researched and uncensored (sexually speaking) biography gives us a fascinating look into a highly privileged group of people in England when the British Empire was at its zenith. Half (sic) of the world's trade was financed by British credits in 1914.
It pictures the education of young Keynes, groomed by his parents for the highest civil duties, his acceptance in the exclusive Cambridge Apostles Circle (a main discussion point was Higher Sodomy) and his membership of the, in all aspects, anarchic Bloomsbury group. It shows without restaint Keynes' (homo)sexual awakening and his conventional (based on the Gold Standard) beginnings as an economist.
In the meantime, this book reveals the functioning of the British elitist School system (Eton, Cambridge) as well as the 'moral' environment of this period: the death of God and the birth of mass democracy.
Prof. Skidelsky's book contains a wealth of information on e.g. the conservative reasoning behind the Gold Standard, Utilitarianism or Moore's essentialistic, but influential, ethic system.
He shows us Keynes as a fundamental nationalist: 'it is better to have Englishmen running the world than foreigners'.
But nothwithstanding his exhausting efforts, he saw Britain and mainland Europe sinking under the war debts and being taken over by the US as world power, which was effectively controlled by one man, J.P. Morgan.
He attacked severely the Versailles Treaty but was devastated that politicians preferred suicidal short-time revenge and election success rather than long-time beneficial solutions.
This book is sometimes too detailed with extensive letter excerpts. Nonetheless, it is a fascinating read.
A would-be philosopher turned economist.......2003-05-28
John Maynard Keynes' life faithfully portrayed by Robert Skidelsky, is a life of a man grown up amidst the intelectual aristocracy of his time, which coincided with the beginning of the downfall of the Victorian age and was to culminate in the First World War. His father John Neville Keynes was a famous economist of his time and had many other intelectual atributes which he didn't want to put up to test in the academic arena, despite a lot of incentives by the famous economist Alfred Marshall, the most proeminent thinker of the neo-classics school of thought. Neville Keynes was determined instead to follow closely and have influence upon the professional careers of his most inteligent son. To anyone who whished to compare this situation to the education the philosopher James Mill gave to his son John Stuart Mill, I would warn he/she to be cautious cause the result is very much different than could be foresaw.
What the book shows is the fascinating formative years of one of the most influential men of all times, who had a strong appetite for getting all the knowledge he could get and who didn't hide behind his geniality. Quite to the contrary, Keynes was up for everything he could grab, be it different sexual male partners, a lot of trips to Italy and a lot of academic prizes, estimulated by the spirit of competion his father tried to assert on him, at the end to no avail. Also, the pace of his intelectual output is outstanding, being Keynes almost always pushed to the limit to do a lot of different things at the same time.
Some crude aspects of Keynes sexual life are also all there via the transcriptions of the many letters he exchanged with his male lovers and friends of the many different intelectual cycles he was part of.
His education at the noblest institutions in England (Eton and Cambridge)where he got the opportunity to intermingle with the likes of Bertrand Russell, Virginia Wolf, Whitehead and the philosopher Moore, the latter certainly the most fundamental influence he had in these formative years, provided the social and intelectual backgrounds needed to awake the geniality of the most brilliant economist of the last century.
Deep and relealing, a true insight........2001-02-17
Hopes betrayed is an exceptionally well researched and insightful book. The author goes into detail, and confirms previously unspoken truths about Keynes early life. It pays particular attention to Keynes homosexuality, such as his long held affections for Duncan Grant, and also his relationships, coiteries, and philosophies. Personally I found the chapters deailing Keynes' influence in the war most interesting.
Although the book goes into ample detail, it is a little dry, and possibly lacks a little life. One sometimes feels as if there are a few too many quotes, names and places. This somewhat detracts from the interest of the book.
However, overall anyone who is curious as to what made father of modern economics ought to read this book.
A comprehensive account of Keynes' precocious early life........2000-02-15
Robert Skidelsky provides a punctilious account of the most influential economist of the 20th century and the intellectual and social milieu's that shaped him. Keynes is easily the most recognizable name in 20th century economics, followed somewhat closely by John Kenneth Galbraith and Milton Friedman.
In the book's preface, Skidelsky claims he was the first biographer to attempt to go into detail about Keynes' hitherto undiscussed homosexual relationships. The most notable and emotionally involved of these affairs occured with painter and fellow Bloomsbury member Duncan Grant. Skidelsky confirms that Keynes also slept with Bloomsbury biographer Lytton Strachey. Several corresponding letters between Keynes and Strachey not only confirm this, but a subsequent sexual rivalry over the affections of Grant. G.E. Moore's 'Principia Ethica' unquestionably wrought out a strong influence on Keynes and Strachey's radical sexual attitudes after they had read it. Some unfastidious anti-Keynesians have tried to tie in Keynes' early predispositions to homosexuality (he later in life married a Russian Ballet dancer named Lydia Lopokova) with his rejection of the gold standard. This probably isn't a valid argument, given the level of abstraction Keynes' mind reached at an early age to develop and entertain such unorthadox methods.
Keynesian economics has been repudiated by many laissez-faire proponents over the past two decades. The most well reasoned of these critiques have come from Friedman and Robert Lucas; who have each received Nobel Prizes for their work. Notwithstanding, both pale in comparison with the impact Keynesianism has had on post-WW2 macroeconomics.
Whether or not you're an unyeilding Keynesian or a free market capitalist, you'll find it impossible not to marvel at this remarkable biography of a remarkable man. Keynes should be included at the top of anyone's list of the 20th century's most important intellectuals.
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Keynes
D. E. Moggridge
Manufacturer: University of Toronto Press
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Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0802069517 |
Customer Reviews:
Renaissance man.......2003-10-21
Keynes was Victorian and Edwardian in his orientation. He died in 1946. The government of Great Britain was in the hands of an intelligent elite. Keynes had a conventional education at Eton and Cambridge. At Cambridge he became a member of the group known as the Apostles. There was emphasis on personal standards of morality.
During World War I he was a Treasury Civil Servant. Although he would have been excused from military service, he did write to the Tribunal pleading conscientious objection. The Tribunal declined to rule.
In 1909 he was elected a Fellow at Kings College, Cambridge. Keynes drifted into monetary economics. Keynes seems to have thought of the structure of his argument before he put pencil to paper. Intuition was present in large works and in his day-to-day tasks. Keynes believed that intuition could run ahead of analysis.
Keynes was almost continuously absorbed in questions of policy. It seemed to Keynes that economics was a branch of logic. Probability is not subjective. Probability was the subject of one of his first major works. Keynes disliked theorizing for its own sake. Keynes used the Cambridge didactic style in presenting some of his arguments. As a working economist, Keynes was a rationalist.
The political elite of senior politicians, civil servants, and higher journalists could be influenced by rational persuasion and public opinion. In a democracy the elite was subject to public opinion, but opinion generated by an inner core could significantly shape general beliefs and currents of thought. Public opinion was not really firm. It could be changed by events.
Keynes had a conception of desirable society. He broke new ground in his view of the role of the state. He borrowed from Bentham in designating an agenda and nonagenda of government. First it was necessary to distinguish matters technically social or technically individual. The social ones would not get done at all if not performed by the state.
Keynes made friends with the Americans in the course of working for the treasury department during World War I. In 1918 he bought four works of art by Delacroix, Ingres, and Cezanne. In 1919 he resigned the Peace Conference and resumed private life. Keynes married Lydia Lopokova in 1925.
He spent six years, 1925-1931, on A TREATISE ON MONEY. In the United State the Federal Reserve System was showing that monetary management could combine price stability with economic expansion. In the treatise Keynes developed new tools of analysis. In the treatise Keynes accepted the desirability of an international standard of value.
Keynes advocated public works as a solution to Britain's unemployment. Britain left the gold standard in September 1931. 1931-1936 were years of preparing THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT, INTEREST AND MONEY. The theory of the rate of interest was Keynes's main ground for controversy in 1936 and after.
During World War II Keynes was deeply involved in framing economic issues. After the outbreak of war, Keynes's main concern was the best method of transferring resources from peacetime to wartime uses. Fiscal measures were at the center of his vision.
Keynes was mindful of the postwar consequences of wartime acts. The Bretton Woods Conference yielded plans for the creation of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Keynes had passionate concern for the world and its ills. He emphasized the need for useful operational economic models.
Customer Reviews:
Keynes was on the road to going straight by early 1922.......2005-06-24
These letters of correspondence between J M Keynes and Lydia Lopokova provide an almost overwhelming case that Keynes had decided that he was going to end his previously homosexual-bisexual lifestyle and become a practicing heterosexual.It is clear from the ending comments of nearly all of their letters(for instance,Lydia signs off on April 21st,1922 that"I gobble you from head to foot.L.")that they are already deeply involved in a sexual relationship.A careful reading of these letters serves to counterbalance the misleading impressions left in the works of Robert Skidelsky on Keynes that he was gay.Keynes ,in fact,would be more accurately described ,before he met Lydia, as being gay-bi.The reader will enjoy the letters of exchange on pp.143-145 between Keynes and Lydia about an algebra problem that Keynes sent to Lydia to solve.Of equal interest is the crossword puzzle that Keynes very ingeniously constructed to send to Lydia on Valentine Day in 1924(pp.288-289).
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