Book Description
Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs
This book shows why such “predictable surprises” put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.
There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it.
Customer Reviews:
Enlightening.......2007-08-27
The book jumps around but makes clear and valid points. A great eye opener! I would recommend this to students, leaders, informed citizens...just about anybody. I'm definitely getting more copies for friends and loved ones.
On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming.......2005-10-07
Anyone who has worked for some sort of organization, government agency, business, university or whatever, will empathise with "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins. This book focuses on the early and late warning signs, the cover-ups, the denials, and the eventual consequences of failing to take action to avert disaster. I've been in far too many situations where I observed that the peple "in charge" (really??) were blindsided by their own limited vision to the realities of what was happening within their organizations.
There are two "Predictable Surprises" that weren't included. First, Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath in New Orleans. Anyone visiting that city and talking with one's professional compatriates could have seen coming what unfolded before our eyes. The warning signs and studies were out there and ignored. That's why those who had a reasonable level of education left town and paid attention to the evacuation notices.
The other predictable surprise that was missed was the sex abuse scandal in the Roman Catholic Church. I'm Protestant but know a lot of fine Roman Catholic people. I heard things as long ago as fifty years and knew then that this situation was going to explode in the public domain. "Predictable Surprises" provides the principals that explain why this particular surprise was kept under the radar so long.
An outstanding book that should be read by everyone working in the corporate world, a government agency, a university, the military, or a non-profit organization. Your life may depend on knowing what's in this book.
Predictably bad.......2005-06-14
A major shortcoming of Bazerman and Watkins' book is the failure to provide adequate evidence to support their arguments about what they call "predictable surprises", which they define as "an event or series of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." Bazerman and Watkins build their case substantially on just two examples: aviation security failures leading to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and auditor independence concerns leading to the collapse of Enron and Arthur Anderson. Several other examples are discussed in less depth throughout the text, however many of these are not actually predictable surprises under the definition provided. For example, global warming is discussed a number of times; however global warming has been in public discussion since the 1930s, and today a substantial majority of people believe not only the concept of global warming but that current warming is man-made. By 2050, this subject will have been under study for 120 years and popular consensus will have been achieved for 50-60 years. This is certainly predictable, but hardly a surprise. The United States' looming crisis in entitlement spending also falls in this category.
Flaws exist in other anecdotal support as well. For example, Bazerman and Watkins cite aviation security failures as an occasion when overly discounting the future lead to a predictable surprise. Quick calculation based on figures provided in the book show that, using equal discount rates for the expected future cost of security and the future cost of disaster, even with a disaster probability as high as 10% for any given year, the airlines would be ahead on a cost basis. The total destruction of both World Trade Center towers and the massive ensuing death toll was not reasonably foreseeable by the airline industry; based on the typical passenger plan carrying 78 people, this was the equivalent of an absurd 41 simultaneous aircraft disasters! Given the cost of implementation and the low probability of such a large disaster, even at a full cost of nearly $50 billion, the airlines' decision to oppose security measures on a cost basis was reasonable. The full scope of this surprise was unlikely enough that it should not be termed "predictable."
Despite some good analysis of reasons predictable surprises occur and ways to avoid them, this book is critically weakened by its lack of evidence. Bazerman and Watkins try to make it stand largely on just the aviation security and auditor independence failures; however these are insufficient evidence for their broad analysis and conclusions, particularly given the weakness of those arguments provided. This book would be substantially more persuasive with more anecdotal support.
Predictably OK.......2005-05-11
In a world ruled by probability, all predictions eventually come true (no matter how impossible.) That said, ignoring the obvious can be disastrous, but the authors methods for prioritizing risk were disappointing.
Updating the March of Folly.......2005-02-23
The authors have found a memorable phrase to describe a depressingly common phenomenon - the occurrence of a disaster or failure that has been widely and often publicly predicted. The term `predictable surprise' will undoubtedly enter the managerial and political language.
They have provided a valuable analysis of why these predictable disasters occur and what can be done to prevent them (while recognizing that there are also such things as `unpredictable surprises' which can not be avoided through these processes).
The book is invaluable for the clear way in which it brings the elements together and for the vividness and immediacy of the examples chosen to illustrate the points. The result is a book that is very readable as well as being immediately useful, even if many of the points have also been made elsewhere by other authors. The book provides a template against which organizations can assess their defences against `predictable surprises', and I suspect that every organization will find gaps in its armour when it measures itself against the recommendations in the book.
The authors also use the book to mount a stinging attack on the failures of the American political system (and by extension those of other countries) and the need for fundamental reform. Their attack on the activities of the special interest groups and their direct responsibility for some of the worst disasters that the US has suffered is particularly pointed. One can only hope that the criticisms will be listened to and acted upon, and that politicians as well as business people will read and note them.
Throughout the book, the systemic, interconnected nature of the processes that lead to predictable surprises is very clear, but the authors do not, in my opinion, highlight the fact as strongly as they should. They do point out that depletion of international fisheries is a classic case of 'the tragedy of the commons', one of several archetypal forms of systems relationship, but virtually every example that the authors cite could well be illustrated with simple systems diagrams based on one or other of the classic 'systems archetypes'. Systemic issues require systemic solutions and the leverage for systemic change may be located well beyond the area of control of the immediate actors - another fact that shows up clearly in the course of the authors' examples.
It is probably no coincidence that I was strongly reminded of Barbara Tuchman's The March of Folly as I read the book. The perspective and coverage is different, but the themes of willful ignorance, willful inaction and willful pursuit of perceived short-term self interest as fundamental drivers of future disasters are common to both. If Tuchman were still alive, I would have confidently expected an analysis of Iraq to follow her masterful analysis of the Vietnam war, the American War of Independence and the drivers of the Reformation. In its own way, Predictable Surprises provides a contemporary update of the ways in which we continue the march of folly.
Book Description
An Inside Look at Windows Vista Security for Systems Administrators
Get an early start on Windows Vista security and the technology shifts you'll need to know as a systems administrator. From leading Windows expert Mark Minasi comes this "just-in-time" book to get you there. This targeted, hands-on guide takes a rapid-fire approach to the biggest security changes and how they'll affect business as usual for those who must integrate and provide technical support for Windows Vista. You'll find practical instruction, tips, workarounds, and much more.
* Work through a slew of Vista surprises, such as logging on as Administrator and how to re-enable Run
* Discover how virtualization works--and where it doesn't
* Find out why you can no longer delete files in System32, even though you are an Administrator
* Get familiar with new post-boot security features such as PatchGuard
* Protect laptops to the max with the innovative BitLocker feature
* Meet the new Windows Integrity mechanism
* Explore the revamped Event Viewer, event forwarding, and new troubleshooting tools
Go above and beyond what you've heard about Vista
Discover the changes to Share and Registry Access
Catch up on all the encryption news and services
Try out Vista Remote Desktop with its enhanced security
About the Series
The Mark Minasi Windows Administrator Library equips system administrators with in-depth technical solutions to the many challenges associated with administering Windows in an enterprise setting. Series editor Mark Minasi, a leading Windows expert, not only selects the topics and authors, he also develops each book to meet the specific needs and goals of systems administrators, MIS professionals, help-desk personnel, and corporate programmers.
Customer Reviews:
Nicely done.......2007-08-22
Excellent book which not only gives information about the
security changes but also the reason behind them.
As always, Mark is precise, humorous and gives practical
examples which make the book a lot easier to read.
This book will definitely help any I.T. administrator who
wishes to upgrade to windows vista without having
a headache!
Mandatory Reading for My Staff.......2007-07-20
I don't usually take the time to write reviews, but this book is packed with solid information on the topics that are new to Vista - And it is very readable at the same time.
The title is exactly representative of the content - It really covers the "big surprises in Vista" for administrators. It isn't a huge technical manual, it isn't aimed as a user tutorial, or filled with a bunch of hoaky filler pictures. It basically outlines the new features of Vista and asks you to understand and consider the trade-offs before attempting to disable them.
Before reading this book, I felt as an administrator, the Apple commercial with the man in the middle was spot-on. This book at least helped me understand why each feature was implemented and what I would be giving up if I disabled them.
I made it required reading for all my staff and purchased a copy of the book for all technicians as well as managers.
Required Reading for Vista Administrators and Users.......2007-06-26
With each new incarnation of the flagship Windows operating system, Microsoft has dubbed it 'the most secure yet' and Vista is no exception. Pundits and Microsoft-bashers like to jump all over Microsoft as soon as a flaw is found, but Microsoft did not have the audacity to claim their product was invulnerable or impervious (Oracle should take a hint), just that it is more secure than Windows XP or other previous editions of Windows.
With Vista, Microsoft has, in fact, introduced a variety of security controls. Not only do the aeroglass interface and some of the other cosmetic changes require some getting used to, but many of the changes in Windows security seem obtrusive and confusing if you do not understand them.
Mark Minasi, a recognized expert and prolific author on Microsoft Windows, seeks to alleviate some of the learning curve with this book. The book was written based on Beta and pre-release versions of Vista in order to get it written and on the shelves before, or at least at the same time as, the official release of Vista. For the most part, this is not an issue, but there are some minor areas like the final "official" name for Windows Integrity Control [WIC] (or is it Mandatory Integrity Control [MIC]?) may not be 100% accurate.
That in no way detracts from the value of this book though. The book is brief, but more than adequately addresses the new and unique aspects of the security controls in Vista. Minasi explains UAC, WIC, Bitlocker, PatchGuard, securing Service and more, all in a way that is detailed enough for security professionals to gain value, but in a manner that is simple enough for common users to understand.
I think this book should be required reading for network and security administrators responsible for Vista systems, and that any user implementing Vista should read this book to understand Vista security.
Mark has done it again..........2007-06-05
Bravo...
This is an OUTSTANDING glimpse at the security features of Windows Vista from one of the industries best.
First off, this is not the usually 1000 page "tome". This book goes specifically to a few important and often misunderstand (in the case of UAC) features of Windows Vista. Unlike most technical books, I found it very readable...I finished it in a weekend.
Like Mark, I was down on the UAC at first. That was until I saw Mark speak and read the chapter on the UAC. Then it made perfect sense! If you or know someone who is down on the UAC, read this! While all chapters were excellent, I enjoyed and learned much from the Windows Integrity Control and BitLocker
True to Mark's style, it is funny, informative, and pulls no punches. Mark...We wouldn't expect anything less! Also, there is the necessary dose of command line.
As an MCT and college instructor in the Windows Networking arena, I will be putting this book on the recommended reading list for ALL of my classes, not just Vista!
Thanks for a great book and the photo-op at Tech Ed 2007!
Michael Bender
P.S. Mastering Server 2008...If you write it, they will come:)
Only security and NOT everything there is to know.......2007-05-25
At 288 pages, this is hardly a one-stop resource, and you're going to need lots more info about everything to do the job. As an admin, I was disappointed.
Book Description
Charlaine Harris is already a star and a New York Times bestseller with her vampire mysteries starring Sookie Stackhouse and her Lily Bard mysteries. This second installment to her new supernatural mystery series might just be her biggest hit yet. Grave Sight's Harper Connelly is back, and her ability to find the dead and see their last moments is in higher demand than ever...
A college class gets more than it bargained for when Harper gives a demonstration of her uncanny talent. Instead of just finding one body in an old grave, she finds two: the original occupant and a recently deceased girl whom Harper had tried, and failed, to find two years previously. To dispel suspicions about her own innocence, Harper and her stepbrother Tolliver undertake their own hunt to find the killer-only to find yet another body in the same grave.
Customer Reviews:
Deja Vu.......2007-10-16
Second in a series, "Grave Surprise" is simply too much like the first: judgemental bystanders, unfriendly main characters, murder mystery with increasing body count, lame "you must be guilty because you found the corpse" excuse to involve the main characters. Can be read independently of the first novel -- and probably would be much more enjoyable that way. Mood is vaguely depressing.
An improvement over book one.......2007-10-16
Though I find Charlaine Harris to be an entertaining writer usually, I was not impressed by the first Harper Connelly book. Reluctantly, I decided to read book two anyway and I do not regret this decision. The plot flowed more smoothly than the previous book and the central story idea was intriguing. I do agree with previous reviewers that this series is not the best work Harris has ever done. The protagonist Harper is a very prickly person indeed who has had a life that is gothic in its sadness and hardship. I also find the relationship with Harper's stepbrother creepy. In the first book it was clear that these two are in love with each other and in this book Harper finally realizes it for herself. I wish Harris would not continue with this unfortunate romantic plotline and instead concentrate on writing the great stories that Harper's ability would let her create.
HOW is this a "good read", exactly?.......2007-10-10
Pay attention to what you are reading people; this story has many continuity problems! First, after the discovery of the two bodies in the grave, Harper and Tolliver discuss how the "older male student" (who turns out to be a private detective) seemed suspicious. Go back and reread the scene they allude to--nothing was particularly odd about the man,except he stood out because of his age, and he voiced one suggestion, which was described as sounding "objective".
Second, ditto Harper's run in with the FBI agent. A harmless conversation becomes blown out of perportion when Harper and Tolliver talk about it.
Third, (and this is the worst)re-read the phone conversation between Harper and her little sisters. Work out their ages on a time line. The youngest is 9, making her 16 years younger than Harper's 25. Then Harper says her sisters were 3 and 5 when Cameron(?, the missing middle sister) disappeared. Doing the math makes Harper 19 when Cameron disappeared--BUT Harper was supposely younger, as she spent her senior year in a foster home after Cameron disappeared!
Lack of Continuity ruins what could have been a good story.
And the sad decline begins.......2007-10-01
This book is pretty good, until... until she begins the predictable, sad decline into gothic romance that her other series sped into. In this book, we see the seeds for the next in the series to begin exploring the faux "incest" theme she set up clumsily in book one.
Sad, though, because this book and it's predecessor are good, and even fairly original. Now, I cannot, and will not, buy book three. Jesus wept.
Boring!.......2007-10-01
I have read the first two books in this series (this is the second) and won't follow up with the third. This book is slow, with plodding, uninteresting characters. 75% of the book is taken up with either unproductive internal monologue inside Harper's head or boring dialogue between the characters. Very little attempts have been made toward forshadowing, and what little there was, was obvious with the conclusion wrapped up quickly at the end. Weirdly, only a few pages are devoted to Harper's gift of reading dead people. Is this not the premise of the book?
All Ms. Harris's books have a "depressing" underlying theme in which she focuses on the negative side of southern life (discrimination) which makes me wonder if this is reflective of her own experiences, or if she is a "downer" herself. I do like her Sookie Stackhouse series, which I think the saving grace there are the characters, by being unusual bring interest to the story but then again, there is the pervasive depressing/discrimination theme running through the series. I have never been able to read more than one or two in her series and apparently am a glutton for punishment as I keep hoping (unrealistically) for a better series based on the Sookie Series.
Book Description
A remarkable life and a remarkable voice emerge from the journals, letters, and memoirs of Leo Lerman: writer, critic, editor at Condé Nast, and man about town at the center of New York’s artistic and social circles from the 1940s until his death in 1994.
Lerman’s contributions to the world of the arts were large and varied: he wrote on theater, dance, music, art, books, and movies for publications as diverse as Mademoiselle and The New York Times. He was features editor at Vogue and editor in chief of Vanity Fair. He launched careers and trends, exposing the American public to new talents, fashions, and ideas.
He was a legendary party host as well, counting Marlene Dietrich, Maria Callas, and Truman Capote among his intimates, and celebrities like Cary Grant, Jackie Onassis, Isak Dinesen, and Margot Fonteyn as part of his larger circle. But his personal accounts and correspondence reveal him also as having an unusually rich and complex private life, mourning the cultivated émigré world of 1930s and 1940s New York City, reflecting on being Jewish and an openly homosexual man, and intimately evoking his two most important lifelong relationships.
From a man whose literary icon was Marcel Proust comes an unparalleled social and emotional history. With eloquence, insight, and wit, he filled his journals and letters with acute assessments, gossip, and priceless anecdotes while inimitably recording both our larger cultural history and his own moving private story.
Customer Reviews:
La Grand Surprise.......2007-09-05
Merveilleux, plein d'esprit, arrogant, frivole, exultant, ampoulé, artificiel, étudié, pompeux, vrai, adulateur, vain, important, indiquant, sarcastique, nostalgique, simulé, inspiré, long, accusateur, adorable, charmant, réminiscent, théâtral, musical, `dishy', abondance de bavardage, fascinants, amusement, révélatoire, `campy', vaniteux, rappelant, surélevé, parfait, détaillé, historique, focalisé, fastueux, élégant, méticuleux, explicatif, cavité, recherché, organisé, nom-chute, bien-écrit, lisible, accessible, peu compliqué, précieux, sincère, exultante!!
Fabulous........2007-08-14
Eloquent, entertaining, frequently poignant. The book is less about the great characters of mid-century New York, glitterati and literati, than about Lerman's place among them. He is his own favorite subject, but that doesn't make him any less likeable or the book any less fascinating.
A man at the center of New York culture.......2007-08-12
No doubt about it: Leo Lerman knew everybody who was anybody in New York's arts & literary scenes for almost 50 years. The cast of characters who stroll through his journals and letters (Marlene Dietrich, Maria Callas, Truman Capote, Leonard Bernstein, this list just goes on and on...) provides an amazing snapshot of life among the most notable figures of the 20th century. I wish this book was a more compelling read. When I recently read Chance and Circumstance: Twenty Years with Cage and Cunningham by Carolyn Brown, I came away dazzled at the opportunity to get close to key figures in music and dance, and felt tmy understanding of their work was enhanced. I felt no similar sense from Lerman's book, perhaps precisely because of the range of his acquaintances. For example, he meets Truman Capote when both are quite young, and Capote is writing his first book. The glimpse of the young author at that moment is priceless, but then the two lose touch, and Lerman moves on to other people. Moreover, Lerman's dizzying social life largely prevented him from completing any major work of his own, and his partner Gray Foy gave up a successful career as an artist. There are definitely some choice stories here, things that made me laugh out loud or gasp with a mixture of delight and dismay. But frankly, the best thing in the book is the introductory story about the butterfly called The Grand Surprise that gives the book its title. Almost nothing else has the texture and depth of that one vividly recounted anaecdote. As a result this memoir is a swirl of social activity without a center. If you don't mind frosting with no cake, you'll enjoy this.!
Name-dropping Opera Queens: This Is For You!.......2007-08-06
God, is this book tedious! Leo Lerman must have been the cheapest, most self-involved, most boring opera queen and star-f**cker who ever lived. If you yearn to know how 1940's demi-celebrities could be hosted for twenty-five cents per non-entity at a cocktail party, this book is for you.
Agony and Esctasy of Leo Lerman.......2007-06-11
A monumental undetaking both rewarding for Lerman's thoughts and fine editorial notes sorting out the wide variety of Lerman's friends and acquaintances.
Customer Reviews:
October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan.......2007-05-21
An intriguing look at teachery and treason by the Republican Party. I have never understood the interest that Republicans have in running for elected office; they have little or no knowledge or understanding about how a modern government should work and less interest in the subject. Their dependence upon misogyny, free ranging corporations, inflated dollars, social slavery, outright corruption and pagan material idolatry stymies me. They would regulate the poor and warehouse the rich in gated communities and are loathe to remember that both heaven and hell are gated communities. Never has there been a political party with such base intentions and such great appeal among the nouveau riche.
This story is probably true but now unindictable like the crimes of 9-11; it typifies the arrogance and modus operandi of the GOP. To have negotiated and extended the hostages' captivity in Tehran for any reason whatsoever is the height of immorality and inhumanity but standard political expedience for jumpy political losers like the GOP. They are cut from the same cloth as the kidnappers themselves and thus their nascent ability to negotiate with them. But this is the same party that two decades later suspended our civil liberties, tortured prisoners and took us to war for no credible reason. At this point (2007) if you are catching up on your political research, this book is a great sequel to anything written about Watergate or Richard NIxon's plumbers and an ominous prophecy to the political horrors that follow.
A Well-Documented Must READ!!!.......2005-11-27
If this work were fiction it would be an exceptional read, unfortunately, it is just HORRIFYING!!!
Casey is the ominous voice & Bush is the corrupt clown behind the curtain strategizing & manipulating his way to the White House.
Liberals will love it, Conversatives will repel its Republican blasphemy, and everyone else will appreciate the sliver of light exposing this political cancer.
Gary Sick writes a fabulous tale of factual American political corruption, deceipt & manipuation...painfully it carries the burden of being a history book...and for its contents, I am ashamed.
A mishmash of proven lies and half truths.......2005-10-08
I read this book years ago when it was first published. Mr. Sick allowed himself to be taken in by a collection of Iranian liars as well as some phonies claiming to have experience in intelligence. Some of the people Sick listened to were shown in the Iran-Contra hearings to be con artists who also took in Ollie North and Bill Casey. These con artists are experts at saying what the listener wants to hear. One guy claimed to have been in Special Forces and was an eyewitness to one of VP-candidate Bush's flights to meet with Iranians. It turns out that he was not in Special Forces at all and he had been dishonorably discharged from the US Army. In addition, he could not have been an eyewitness to the event he claims to have seen because he was in jail at the time. The phony intelligence specialists have also been proven to be liars with no experience in intelligence or anything resembling national security work. By the time I finished this book, I actually felt sorry for Sick because he had allowed himself to be taken in by these jokers. He clearly wanted to believe that what he was being told was true.
This book does not prove anything except that even an experienced researcher can be fooled if he really wants to believe. Subsequent investigations by a Democratically dominated Congress proved that there was no October surprise.
Completely Discredited - Fast And Loose With Facts.......2004-04-23
The irony of this book is that it changes the meaning of what "October Surprise" actually meant. The phrase was actually invented by the Republicans (Bill Casey, Stu Spencer, and VP candidate Bush) as a warning as to what Carter would try to do with the hostages. Yet now a former Carter administration member writes a book and hangs the term around the necks of his opponents.
The thesis simply doesn't work. A Congressional investigation spent over a million dollars and released a 968-page report that refutes the claims in this book. (I would add to those who see everything through partisan eyes that the Democrats controlled Congress and all the committees at that time).
The most obvious question is this: how did Ronald Reagan and his team get ahold of the equipment necessary to pull this off? Supposedly, an SR-71 Blackbird flew Bush to Madrid to negotiate for the hostages to be kept until after the election. But SR-71s don't just fly themselves, so who flew it? And what commander signed off for the plane to be missing from his fleet for a couple of days? Did Bush really have time to do that since the polls were showing a close election?
Sick has a well footnoted book, but it fails all across the line. Just because there's a footnote doesn't mean we know who actually said what. We don't know if the antagonists had been in contact with each other (the Congressional investigation showed they were - which ruins their credibility).
The book appears to be a retroactive attempt to say the reason Carter lost was because of the hostages. While there is no doubt that is one of the reasons, it is simplistic to say that such is the ONLY reason. How, after all, can you blame Reagan for the helicopters that didn't work in the bungled rescue attempt in April 1980? And let's not forget that half of the Democratic voters in the primary didn't want Carter to run again anyway.
This book is an attempt to besmirch a Presidency solely because the author disagrees with that man's ideology. It is a shame and a disgrace that this can be done. Reagan won, Carter lost. And it wasn't even close. Please get over it, Mr. Sick.
Totally Discredited Book.......2002-07-18
Gary Sicks' bizarro theory that George Bush flew to Paris in an SR-71 to meet with the Iranians to convince them to keep the hostages until after the election in 1990 is just plain crazy. Congress investigated this and found no basis for Sicks account. This is better fiction though than most spy stories but no one should take this silliness seriously.
Book Description
September 11, 2001, distinguished Cold War historian John Lewis Gaddis argues, was not the first time a surprise attack shattered American assumptions about national security and reshaped American grand strategy. We've been there before, and have responded each time by dramatically expanding our security responsibilities.
The pattern began in 1814, when the British attacked Washington, burning the White House and the Capitol. This early violation of homeland security gave rise to a strategy of unilateralism and preemption, best articulated by John Quincy Adams, aimed at maintaining strength beyond challenge throughout the North American continent. It remained in place for over a century. Only when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941 did the inadequacies of this strategy become evident: as a consequence, the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt devised a new grand strategy of cooperation with allies on an intercontinental scale to defeat authoritarianism. That strategy defined the American approach throughout World War II and the Cold War.
The terrorist attacks of 9/11, Gaddis writes, made it clear that this strategy was now insufficient to ensure American security. The Bush administration has, therefore, devised a new grand strategy whose foundations lie in the nineteenth-century tradition of unilateralism, preemption, and hegemony, projected this time on a global scale. How successful it will be in the face of twenty-first-century challenges is the question that confronts us. This provocative book, informed by the experiences of the past but focused on the present and the future, is one of the first attempts by a major scholar of grand strategy and international relations to provide an answer.
Customer Reviews:
A Scholarly Work.......2007-05-21
Ron Marlar (a retired USAF officer, college professor, school teacher, living currently in Florida)
John Lewis Gaddis is a widely respected professor of history and political science at Yale University. These eminent qualifications should not be held against him but rather demand some significant attention.
Writing as an academician he produces in Surprise, Security, and the American Experience a scholarly work worthy of reading and retention for rereading as time passes. Gaddis draws on historical leaders and events to predict assessment of contemporary leadership based on real history, not the revisionist kind so popular in U.S. schools, colleges and universities of today.
He uses solid documentation to make his appropriately qualified, tentative forecast no doubt unpopular with some due to their political views, biases and prejudices. His book qualifies, therefore, at some level as controversial and is at the same time stimulating of discussion and alternative views.
Compiled from a series of public lectures on American Civilization and Government, Surprise, Security, and the American Experience meets the standards of peer review on that basis alone. Gaddis focuses on the attack of September 11, 2001, and subsequent events that inspire much talk and writing currently.
Unlike some of the other talk and writings by media representatives generally lacking academic expertise, Gaddis provides source documentation suitable for assessment by his peers as well as any other readers. Evidence of the extent of documentation is in the fact that his book as published in hard cover by Harvard University Press is a quick read - 118 pages of text followed by 29 pages of bibliographical notes and a helpful index.
American ethnocentrism.Intellectual weakness.......2006-08-18
John lewis Gaddis displays a lot of the most annoying features of the scholars who want to be remembered for their 'version/vision of history' rather than to take upon the (much more demanding)task of building knowledge through careful-if less appealing- empirical inquiries. This book thus exhibits overtly grotesque (especially when you know the author is a historian at Yale, no less!) instances of ethnocentrism in its generalizations about 'the American experience' and what seems to be haunting Gaddis: the undeniable superiority of American democracy and values over that of other countries. Since the author claims to be taking lessons from history in his analysis of the current strategical posture of the USA, maybe he should have remembered that America, for all its successes, remains an 'unfinished nation' as Alan Brinkley has demonstrated, and that its position of preponderance now is historically contingent to say the least, and owes nothing to a fantasized unique American genius. Ironically, what comes to mind when reading Gaddis is the pathetic pamphlets of French and German intellectuals before WWI, aimed at providing a ready to use intellectual rationalization of the most stupid nationalism.
Numerous holes in the reasoning of Gaddis. One star is too high a rating for this book........2006-04-11
This book could be fun to read if readers do not question anything, however, for the countless analytical minds who critique:
The author, Gaddis, is so caught up in his little world that he fails to understand or consider the obvious, and there are too many examples of this. The book begins with the chapter titled "A morning at Yale" where somehow, I get the immpression Gaddis can't stop talking about how he teaches at Yale university, and his Yale collegues who are so great, blah, blah, blah.
Somewhere in the middle of the second chapter, Gaddis gets over the peak of his ego (it climaxes again later in the book), and starts throwing out historical facts along with answering his own questions that he falsely labels as "America's" questions. Many of his exclamations are written is such a ridiculous pseudo-intellectual manner (along with the unsystematic reasoning that is applied) and it is annoying how he can't stop telling the reader how they feel or what they think, by INEXCUSABLY generalizing. The book ends with a chapter titled "An evening at Yale", which should be retitled to "An evening on Uranus" to match how far our of reality this professor seems to be ; )
If you have to buy this book, then buy it used, because I would hate to see another dime added to what seems like another pompus professor, caught up in his own self-glorifying world.
WELL WRITTEN AND ACCURATE.......2006-01-03
PROVIDES WELL WRITTEN AND ACCURATE ANALYSIS OF U. S. NATIONAL SECURITY THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY'S HISTORY. DOES NOT ATTEMPT TO PANDER TO POPULAR OPINION. CONCISE, YET THOROUGH, HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE PLACED IN JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE EVENTS OF SEPTEMBER 11TH.
Right idea? Mabye. Wrong tactics - unquestionably.......2005-12-26
What John Gaddis omits is that the strategy he outlines has to be bold, innovative, imaginative and lead by a gifted communicator - George Washington. Lincoln. FDR. Kennedy; all of them come to mind.
Why an occupation and military force in an age where knowledge sharing, intelligence gathering, collaboration and education are the most powerful tools available? Instead of Generals and the Secretary of Defense, shouldn't an effort of this magnitude be lead by people at Google? If a visionary is needed to articulate the goal, why not Tom Friedman?
What would $300 billion do to remake Palestine? the Gaza Strip? Jordan? Afghanistan? What models should we be creating -- one forced on a country already deeply divided over religious matter by a Christian Army? Or one built by kids using the New Tools? Why not bring Oxford and Cambridge, Stanford and Harvard to the Region by way of the Internet? Why not bring 100,000 bright young Arabs to Paris, London, New York, Nebraska? Why not send 100,000 very motivated college graduates from England, Ireland, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United States -- to teach English and learn Arabic? Farsi? Pustan? What values? what knowledge? would they bring home with them? What relationships would they build? What intelligence would they gain?
The idea of pre-emption is fine if one is willing to use 4th or 5th generation war to achieve the goals of changing minds and winning hearts. The idea of pre-emption is horrible if it is done at the tip of a spear.
John Hibbs
skipper@bfranklin.edu
http://www.bfranklin.edu/johnhibbs
Average customer rating:
- A fun story, perfect for reading at birthday parties!
- Great Book.....Must have for your collection
- B-Day Goody Bag Books
- Birthday
- Cute
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Curious George and the Birthday Surprise (Curious George)
H.A. and Margret Rey
Manufacturer: Houghton Mifflin
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Curious George Goes to the Beach
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ASIN: 0618346872 |
Book Description
When the man with the yellow hat tells George that he is planning a surprise, of course George is curious. Before long George finds a hat, noisemakers, decorations, and games. It must be a birthday! But whose birthday is it? That's the surprise!
Customer Reviews:
A fun story, perfect for reading at birthday parties!.......2007-10-03
The Curious George series of books is a wonderful addition to any youngster's library as the stories are brief, beautifully illustrated in vibrant colors, and the plot is simple and easy for young ones to understand. In this book, Curious George gets all excited over a birthday party, and wonders who its for? There are many fun parts as in when George decides to help frost the cake, and what he does with a mess in the kitchen.The activities at the end of the book is an added bonus. A must-have for any Curious George fan!
Great Book.....Must have for your collection.......2007-08-16
I recently purchased this book to read at my son's first birthday party....What a cute book.....soft cover....they loved the story!
B-Day Goody Bag Books.......2007-06-13
These were used as favors for my son's 5th birthday party. I added a little sticker inside to thank everyone for coming. It's a great story, a familiar and cuious monkey and it even includes some fun games in the back. Many parents thanked me for encouraging their kids to read and most of all for not giving junk and candy.
Birthday.......2007-01-10
My daughter loves this story and she would like to have all of the George books. However, in this story I was a bit surprised when George invited a pack of dogs into the kitchen to lick it clean!
Cute.......2007-01-04
A great little book that my son enjoyed receiving for his birthday. It's a much loved book that already shows many signs of wear.
Amazon.com
This third segment takes Jack Aubrey to the Indian subcontinent, where both the waters and the terrain are full of unfamiliar dangers. There is, however, a prize in the offing: a flotilla of French ships sent to attack the China Fleet. If Aubrey and Maturin can intercept the French, their fortunes will be made. But can they? Join Captain Aubrey on the quarterdeck and find out for yourself.
Amazon.com Audiobook Review
The stakes are high as HMS Surprise opens, and actor Robert Hardy's sterling reading never lets you forget them. Hardy makes Patrick O'Brian's third novel of high-seas adventure--written in 1973 and set mainly in 1805 on the waters surrounding India and the Orient--seem as immediate as an overdrawn checking account. Money plays a big role, and Captain Jack Aubrey stands to make a lot of it. All he has to do is find Napoleon's fleet--and take their gold away from them. (Running time: three hours, two cassettes) --Lou Schuler
Product Description
Third in the series of Aubrey-Maturin adventures, this book is set among the strange sights and smells of the Indian subcontinent and in the distant waters ploughed by the ships of the East India Company. Aubrey is on the defensive, pitting wits and seamanship against an enemy enjoying overwhelming local superiority. But somewhere in the Indian Ocean lies the prize that could make him rich beyond his wildest dreams: the ships sent by Napoleon to attack the China Fleet.
Customer Reviews:
Patrick O'Brian Fan..........2007-09-18
I will need to have the whole series of Aubrey/Maturin adventures to listen to as I work. Nothing like vacuming, cleaning the house, watering the plants etc, etc and listening to these stories.
Very enjoyable, O'Brian is always a great read.......2007-06-10
For the bulk of this book Aubrey is the captain of the HMS Surprise, which he takes into Indian waters to protect Indiamen from a superior French force under a very capable admiral. While there, Stephen comes across his affection, Diana Villiers, who is also under the affections of an enterprising man named Canning. My review scarcely does the book justice, but suffice to say that HMS Surprise is an engrossing read, and will keep one impressed with O'Brian and yearning for more of Aubrey and Maturin
Impressive weaving of professional and private lives in breathing historical context.......2007-05-24
O'Brian manages to keep to his high standard, although with my expectations so high I'm not as able to relish the joy of first discovering Aubrey and Maturin.
There really is so much going on historically it's amazing that the detail doesn't swamp the story. The personal and professional lives of our two heroes really establish them as three dimensional people, but men so clearly of their time. Upon reflection, it's impressive that we've got a sense of progression in the series, but are also carried along by episodes that could stand alone: the midnight rescue of a spy; sea battles in exotic places; the gripping duel to mention just a few.
I would still advise that the books be taken in occasional doses rather than a steady stream - I intend to enjoy O'Brian's company in annual visits for many years to come. I just have to try to trick my mind into comparing him to others rather than himself to appreciate what I'm getting.
Third Entry in Phenomenal Series.......2007-03-26
H.M.S. Surprise by Patrick O'Brian, is the 3rd installment in the 21st book in the phenomenal Aubrey/Maturin series. This book featured the Indian subcontinent, as well as several poignant moments featuring Stephen Maturin. I do think that the series really establishes Stephen as the sould of the series in this novel. There is a fair amount of the espionage portion of Maturin's service in this story, which leads to a dairing rescue by Captain Jack Aubrey. The true mark of these books is how accessible the characters are, in spite of the complicated naval terms and true to the period of time ways of speaking. I love O'Brien's works. They are highly recommended. To mix things up, I would suggest listening to the unabridged version of H.M.S. Surprise, read by the excellent Patrick Tull. Tull will have you feeling the wind on your cheeks as he reads this wonderful tale.
The Best.......2007-02-26
Nothing like it anywhere. Well, maybe Shakespeare but not much else.
excellent use of language.
Book Description
Out-of-print and out of the hands of military professionals for years, Artech House answers the demand, making the sought-after, classic work, Stratagem: Deception and Surprise in War, available once again. This timeless and widely cited volume offers professionals a model and template for studying and analyzing deception operations. Readers get an historical analysis of deception and surprise, over 100 real-world case studies, and a set of methods that underlie and pervade the entire book.
This unique resource takes a broad and deep look at surprise operations, presenting intriguing questions and hypotheses about the possible causes of surprise, including deception. Thoroughly referenced and supported with clear data tables, the case studies concentrate on the goals, planning, expectations, security, leaks, warnings, intelligence assessments, and final results. The book concludes with analytical lists of battles from 1914 to 1968, systematically laid out in columns for cross-tabulation.
Customer Reviews:
Best of breed.......2007-03-25
Barton Whaley is respected as the foremost expert in the field of deception, and his book "Stratagem" is by far the very best single publication on the subject. His work was exhaustively researched and provides the clearest and most detailed explanations of theory, principles, tradecraft and case studies on deception.
A Must-Have for any military library.......2007-02-20
This book is an absolute 'must have' for any military historian (amateur or professional) or any military officers with any interest or responsibility for intelligence or counter-intelligence.
This book is written in the form of two books, and somewhat less obviously, three books.
Book 1 has six chapters of text that discusses the general concepts of deception from a theoretical standpoint and it's value in warfare. He points out the analysis of 27 wars where in only six of these was a decisive result obtained by a direct approach.
Book 2, the biggest part of the book is Appendix A. This consists of 115 known instances of surprise and/or deception from 1914 to 1968 (this book was first written in 1969). To list just two examples:
Case A30 - Details the efforts that the Japanese went to in order to obscure the fact that they were preparing to attack Pearl Harbor. This view puts an entirely different light on the question about what the Americans knew about the pending attack. Suppose the Japanese knew or even suspected that we might have broken their codes.
Case A45 - The deceptions directed at the Germans regarding D-Day. As Churchill said, the facts regarding the invasion were to be protected by 'a bodyguard of lies.' This details the well known aspects such as the appointment of Patton to head up the ficticious army. But it also reports the FBI, back in the US having one of their agents (code named ND98, and still not publicly identified) send signals to the Germans attempting to direct their attention to an attack in the Med.
Conclusion: Buy a copy of this book before it goes out of print again.
Average customer rating:
- Box Car kids are still relevant today! My kids love them.
- Great series!
- Generally okay, but mixed
- So many surprises!
- A fun book for kids!!
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Surprise Island (Boxcar Children)
Gertrude Chandler Warner
Manufacturer: Albert Whitman & Company
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ASIN: 0807576743 |
Book Description
Read by Phyllis Newman
two cassettes / two hours 35 mins.
Adventure abounds as the Alden children spend a summer living on their grandfather's island. They display a wealth of confidence in their ability to face life's everyday challenges armed only with their clever inventiveness and the support of eachother. Few subjects are as sure to capture the imaginations of children as the idea of living on their own. A hint of suspense is woven through the story until the mysterious true identity of Joe the handyman is finally revealed.
Customer Reviews:
Box Car kids are still relevant today! My kids love them........2007-01-04
Growing up in the same town as Ms. Chandler, I was lucky enough to go to the library to hear her read her stories. I loved them. I wasn't sure if my kids 30 years later would love them as much as I did. I think we've read the Boxcar #1 at least 6 times. The kids just love the idea of setting up a home, without adults, and taking care of themselves. Who doesn't love the pink cracked cup and the stream cooler. I wasn't sure if Surprise Island would have the same kind of magic. It did! Not only did it have a lot of the same elements as the first one, my boys loved the kids finding Indian relics, and mystery of who Joe was and of course why can't they go into the yellow house? (read #3 for that one). It is so refreshing that a book written so many years ago can be relevant today, that you don't need potty humor,TV show references or violence to engage children's imaginations.
Great series!.......2006-08-25
My kids, 9, 6, and 3, love these books, which is a surprise since they don't contain any electronics, fantasy adventures, or magic. They beg me to read "just one more chapter!" everytime. So refreshing to read about kids interacting with nature and who are so polite to adults. Definitely a good purchase.
Generally okay, but mixed.......2005-03-02
Warner's second in the Boxcar series is pretty much more of the same. Gone however is any real novelty or discovery.
This time around it gets a little creepy by modern, postfeminist standards. The girls delight in nonstrenuous domesticity, whereas the boys do the heavy lifting and shop work. Henry assumes the role of Father Knows Best autocrat for the little family, the rich grandfather being mostly absent again.
Not too surprising, given that Warner's generation also made the infamous mental hygiene classroom films and social engineering initiatives of the post-WWII era.
If traditional, rigidly-defined, sex-linked roles taught by example are okay with readers' parents, go for it. Progressives and modern liberals will surely be appalled. The enigmatic character of Joe could never be written into modern stories.
The artwork in this edition of Surprise Island is wretched, nothing at all like the first book's.
So many surprises!.......2005-01-22
When I say "So many surprises," I really mean it! For example, the children find Indian artifacts, when they never thought they would. Benny and his friend found a mini-cave. I like this book because it had so many surprises!
A fun book for kids!!.......2003-01-15
The Boxcar Children #2 Suprise Island is a great book for kids and others 15 and under. My favorite part was when the kids found Indian Point and all the artifacts hidden there. After they found all the artifacts they made there own museum. My other favorite part was when the dogs raced each other. When they had to leave they weren't very disspointed because they knew that they were going to come back.The author is such a realistic writer that when you read this book you think that you are there with them.
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- Sex, Romance, and the Glory of God: What Every Christian Husband Needs to Know
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